These days, I am trying to find a good lawyer so that I can sue German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble for copyright infringement.

During my stint in D.C., I was scheming on setting up a competing monetary fund at the empty lot across the street from the IMF and call it the EMF, or Emre’s Monetary Fund. This ingenious idea never took off because somehow, I wasn’t able to solve the financing. Mr. Schäuble came up with the same acronym last week, suggesting a European Monetary Fund, which would act as a lender of last resort to cash-strapped countries such as Greece.

You probably heard the news, but if you haven't, the Turkey-IMF saga has come to an end:

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2010/pr1076.htm

For my part, I am really happy for my good call, done at a time the consensus view was that the agreement would be sealed in a matter of weeks, if not days:

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=fool-some-sometimes-you-can-2010-01-03

According to Bundesbank President Axel Weber, Germany’s economic recovery is “essentially intact”, and is now set to benefit from stronger demand in countries outside the euro region.

“I firmly believe that the recovery process that began in summer 2009 is essentially intact, and that it will continue despite the slower growth dynamic in the winter semester. An additional factor in this context is that the German labor market continues to be in extremely robust shape.”

Turkey suddenly came into the spotlight two weeks ago with the arrests of more than five dozen military officers, some of them still on active duty, for an alleged coup plot that would put even the most imaginative Hollywood screenwriters to shame.

The plan, codenamed sledgehammer, was alleged to include the bombing of a major mosque, planting of weapons at the headquarters of religious sects and the gunning down of a Turkish fighter jet (which would be blamed on Greece), all to create the necessary circumstances for a military takeover.

On March 5th, following Prime Minister Papandreou’s consultations with the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF, the Greek parliament approved the austerity plan intended to reassure international financial markets on Greece’s creditworthiness. The plan envisages budget cuts of 4.8 billion Euros, about 2.5 points of GDP, comprising of  both expenditure cuts (one month wage cut and pensions’ freeze for public employees) and revenue increases (+ 2% on VAT , +20% on luxury goods, tobacco, alcohol, gasoline). While protests are already taking the streets, news agencies unveiled the details of the European support strategy:  a guarantee fund of 20-25 billion which would allow German KfW bank and the French Caisse des Dépôts, both publicly-owned, to underwrite the securities that markets would not be willing to roll-over. This fund would be financed by Germany (5 billion) and other Euro members (on the basis of their shares in the BCE). Meanwhile, the latest auction of ten-year Greek Treasury bonds was a success: all securities were subscribed (at a 6.4% interest rate).  Moreover, Moody's, the rating agency, decided to confirm the current A2 rating: this will allow banks to continue to use Greek debt as collateral for their refinancing operations at the ECB. These are good signs, for sure. So, is the danger (of default and contagion) over?

American officials are annoyed and deeply skeptical – not thinking that this will amount to anything.  But the future has finally arrived – or perhaps its arrival has just been announced – in the form of the European Monetary Fund.

Two months ago we wrote in our monthly letter that we anticipated social unrest will ripple through Europe as fiscal retrenchment is imposed across a number of eurozone nations. We were not kidding – it is said civilization has a thin veneer, and we do not offer such warnings lightly. These are matters of some gravity.

 It's not often that I await the ECB after-meeting press conference statements of Jean Claude Trichet with such an intense feeling of anxiety and bated breath. But this time, as the song goes, it will be different. This time there are plenty of reasons to think that, having been the first off the mark in looking for the exit, Europe's monetary leaders may sound a note of caution at tomorrow's meeting, and indeed indicate there may well be solid grounds for at least taking a time out, if not engaging in a longer process of pausing for extended thought. My advice: if you don't actually have any pressing need to hit the eject button, then don't do it.

Yesterday I argued that Latvia's cost-cutting efforts are evident compared to a cross-section of European Union countries. Latvia's efforts, while commendable, were very much a function of the emergency IMF loan in December 2008 and the ensuing recession in 2009. But I now see a very scary trend emerging across Europe, the fight for exports.

One of the more surprising announcements of support for a bailout of Greece comes from none other than Theodor Waigel, the former German Finance Minister who invented the Stability and Growth Pact.