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Finance & Markets Monitor

A question of values …

Derivative contracts are valued on a mark-to-market ("MtM") basis. This requires valuation of the contracts based on the current market price.

OTC derivatives trade privately. Market prices for specific transactions are not directly available. This means current valuations rely on pricing models.

In current accounting argot, most derivatives are Level 2 assets (Mark-to-Model). In practice, this means that they cannot be priced based on quoted trade prices (Level 1) but are valued using observable inputs; for example, comparable assets or instruments or using interest rates, volatility, correlation, credit spreads etc that can be put through an accepted model to establish values.

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The Gold Bubble

Mar 9, 2010 1:44PM

This represents my personal opinion, not the views of the SEC or its staff.

I am not going to spend time here talking about how the price of gold is off-the-wall, that it is not just a bubble in the making, but a bubble waiting to burst. I don’t want to waste your time on that point.We all know it is a bubble.

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By one of those oddly serendipitous coincidences, this week marks not one but two major Wall Street anniversaries: 

Happy Bottoms: The 12 year low was set one year ago this week. On March 6, 2009, the markets made their “Devil” bottom: The S&P500 hit 666.79, down 57.69% from October 11, 2007 high of 1576.09. The Dow Jones Industrials peaked the same day at 14,198.10, and fell to 6,469.95. The Nasdaq peaked on October 31, 2007 at 2,861.51 — far below the 2,000 peak (more on that later). It plummeted to a March 9th low last year at 1,265.52.

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Self-deception is a remarkably useful form of mental disturbance. Calculated liars have to keep their stories straight, while the deluded are sincere and often unshakable in their misguided beliefs.

The Powers That Be insist that a magic bullet called a special resolution authority will solve many of the problems with the “heads I win, tails you lose” taxpayer backstopped financial system with inadequate oversight. The prospect of taking terminally sick banks out and shooting them will supposedly reintroduce moral hazard and make banks behave responsibly again.

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What do current financial indicators tell us about where the economy is headed?

Macroeconomists have long observed that changes in financial indicators often presage future changes in the economy. For example, a big gap between yields on long-term relative to short-term bonds often signals that faster real economic growth is coming, while an increase in the spread between risky and safer yields is often observed prior to an economic downturn. Stock prices and yield spreads are both used by the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators

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On 30 July 1998, Alan Greenspan, then Chairman of the Federal Reserve argued that: "Regulation of derivatives transactions that are privately negotiated by professionals is unnecessary." In October 2008, the now former Chairman grudgingly acknowledged that he was "partially" wrong to oppose regulation of credit default swaps ("CDS"). "Credit default swaps, I think, have serious problems associated with them," he admitted to a Congressional hearing. His current views on wider derivative regulation remain unknown.

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Gretchen Morgenson has a fair number of critics among readers of this blog, which I think is a tad unfortunate. Most of her articles are in fact sound; she is very reliable on executive comp, anything in the equity markets, or where she is working form legal documents, generally lawsuits. It’s when she wanders into debt markets that her attempts to present material to a mass audience sometimes include nails on chalkboard slips.

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The Greek Job

Mar 4, 2010 11:29AM

Recent revelations that Greece used derivatives to disguise its true level of borrowing have surprised markets. The reaction is reminiscent of Captain Renault (played by Claude Rains) in Casablanca: "I am shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here."

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As we fast approach the unveiling of the Dodd-Corker financial reform proposals for the Senate, it is only fair and reasonable to ask: Does any of this really matter?  To be sure, some parts of what the Senate Banking committee (and likely the full Senate) will consider are not inconsequential for relatively small players in the US market.  For example, putting consumer protection inside the Fed – which has an awful and embarrassing reputation in terms of protecting users of financial products - would tell you a lot about where we are going.

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I felt certain when I read the Financial Times headline, “Proposal sees consumer watchdog role for Fed,” that I must have woken up in a bizarre parallel universe (but that is probably unfair to pretty much all universes parallel to ours: I imagine it would be very difficult to have one more perverse than ours). But no, sadly, this headline is for real; the only possible good news in this account it that this dreadful idea is far from a done deal.

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