Roubini Global Economics

Key Indicators

National Accounts
Real gross domestic income
(AU$ Mil., Chain volume measures, SA)

282993,279051,276108,299446,306461 306,461

HIA-Commonwealth Bank Affordability Report
Median Dwelling Price- National
($)

391400,386400,419900,441800,485950 485,950

Actual Private Capital Expenditure
Total - All Industries
(Mil. Current $, SA)

26496,24908,25359,26607,27440 27,440

Labor Force
Unemployment Rate - Looking for Full-Time Work
(%, SA)

6.19,5.99,5.77,5.49,5.51 5.51

Index of Commodity Prices
All items A$
(2001=100, NSA)

67.59,68.78,70.9,71.15,72.56 72.56

Retail Turnover
Total
(Mil. $, SA)

19719.2,19750.7,20081.8,19925.3,20144.9 20,144.9

data by Moody's

RGE's Q1 2010 Australia Outlook

Australia is slowly pulling out of its effective recession, with only the income measure of GDP lagging the positive growth shown by the expenditure and production measures of GDP. The recovery is fragile. Australia would have slipped into a technical recession had it not been for the temporary boost from overseas commodity demand and government supports for consumer spending and business capex. Conditions in Australia outside mining and agriculture for all practical purposes resembled a recession.

High household indebtedness, a negative structural similarity between Australia and the United States, will keep growth sluggish. The diminishing impact of fiscal stimulus packages domestically and around the world threatens to undermine Australia's rebound and carve a W-shaped growth path. However, Australia will perform strongly compared to other advanced industrial countries due to commodity exports and...

Read the Q1 2010 Australia Outlook.

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Featured Analysis

U.S. Growth Outlook: Still Anemic and U-Shaped but Risks of a Double-Dip Recession Are Rising

“The macro news, including data on consumer confidence, home sales, construction and employment, actually suggests a significant downside risk even to the anemic 2.7% growth which RGE forecast for H1.”

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RGE's Q1 2010 Australia Outlook

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