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Australia

Macroeconomy

Finance & Banking

Geostrategy

Key Indicators

Housing
Price Index of Established Houses, Weighted Average of 8 Capital Cities, NSA (2003/2004=100) - Australia
147.1, 150.1, 150.3, 150.5, 146.8 146.8
Labor Force
Unemployment rate, looking for full-time work, Persons, SA - Australia
5.04, 5.05, 4.94, 4.87, 4.88 4.88
National Accounts
Chain volume, Expenditure on GDP, GDP, AUD, SA - Australia
304743, 306767, 310432, 325727, 328229 328,229
Business Survey
Private New Capital Expenditure, Total, Chain Volume, AUD, SA - Australia
27538, 27274, 26185, 28768, 29691 29,691
data by Factset

Australia Outlook: Hunkering Down Under

A slump in Chinese demand for Australian exports will be a considerable challenge in H1 2012, though there may be some upside from Japanese reconstruction, as well as a Chinese bounceback in H2. Domestic demand is vulnerable to a correction in house prices, which have fallen in the past two quarters. De facto government austerity, coupled with other growth concerns and a falling rate of inflation, will open the door to three more rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia in H1 2012.

Read the latest Australia Outlook

Economic Research

Asia Weekly

Can We Believe the January Numbers?

By Michael Manetta, Ayoti Mittra and Kunal Kumar Kundu Feb 9, 2012

Central Bank Watch

Reserve Bank of Australia: Cash Rate Steady at 4.25%

By Michael Manetta Feb 9, 2012

Asia Weekly

Australia Unemployment and Inflation; China GDP; Singapore Exports

By Michael Manetta, Adam Wolfe and Ayoti Mittra Jan 12, 2012

Central Bank Watch

Reserve Bank of Australia: December Update

By Michael Manetta Dec 15, 2011

Asia Weekly

South Korea, Indonesia and Australia Outlook Highlights

By Michael Manetta and Adam Wolfe Dec 15, 2011

Global Economic Outlook

Australia Outlook: Hunkering Down Under

By Michael Manetta Dec 9, 2011

Central Bank Watch

Overview: The Next Cycle

By Michael Manetta Nov 17, 2011

Central Bank Watch

Reserve Bank of Australia: November Update

By Mikka Pineda Nov 17, 2011

Asia Weekly

Vietnam and Australia Inflation; India Monetary Policy; Singapore Industrial Production

By Michael Manetta, Mikka Pineda, Adam Wolfe and Ayoti Mittra Oct 20, 2011

Central Bank Watch

Pulling Out Policy Rabbits, Putting Policy Ducks in a Row

By Michael Manetta and the RGE Economic Research Team Oct 4, 2011

Asia Weekly

Indonesia and Australia Monetary Policy; Indonesia and Philippines Inflation

By Michael Manetta, Mikka Pineda and Adam Wolfe Sep 29, 2011

Central Bank Watch

Summary Table: RGE Policy Rate Forecasts and Market Interbank Rate Expectations

By Michael Manetta and the RGE Economic Research Team Aug 19, 2011

Central Bank Watch

Reserve Bank of Australia: August Update

By Mikka Pineda Aug 19, 2011

Global Economic Outlook

Australia Outlook Update: Trimming Our Rate Call

By Mikka Pineda Jul 29, 2011

Asia Weekly

Indonesia and Philippines Inflation; Indonesia GDP; Australia Monetary Policy

By Michael Manetta and Mikka Pineda Jul 28, 2011

Asia Weekly

Singapore, Vietnam and Australia Inflation; India and Philippine Monetary Policy; Thailand Manufacturing

By Michael Manetta, Mikka Pineda and Adam Wolfe Jul 21, 2011

Asia Weekly

Australia and Malaysia Monetary Policy; Malaysia Exports; India Fiscal Policy

By Michael Manetta, Mikka Pineda and Kunal Kumar Kundu Jun 30, 2011

Asia Weekly

Outlook Updates for Australia, China, Malaysia, Pakistan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam

By Arpitha Bykere, Michael Manetta, Mikka Pineda and Adam Wolfe Jun 23, 2011

Global Economic Outlook

Australia Outlook Update: Midcycle Slowdown

By Mikka Pineda Jun 20, 2011

Economic Research

Central Bank Watch: The Shifting Tides of Global Monetary Policy

By James Mason and the RGE Economic Research Team Jun 8, 2011

Asia Weekly

Australia, Indonesia, Korea and China Monetary Policy; China Trade; Philippines Inflation; Malaysia Industrial Production

By Michael Manetta, Mikka Pineda, Adam Wolfe and Arpitha Bykere Jun 2, 2011

Asia Weekly

Japan Industrial Production, Australia and India Growth, Thailand Monetary Policy

By Mikka Pineda, Michael Manetta and Arpitha Bykere May 26, 2011

Asia Weekly

Indonesia and Philippines Inflation; Australia and India Monetary Policy Meetings

By Mikka Pineda, Michael Manetta and Arpitha Bykere Apr 28, 2011

Asia Weekly

Australia and Singapore Inflation, South Korea and Taiwan Growth

By Michael Manetta, Mikka Pineda, Adam Wolfe and Arpitha Bykere Apr 21, 2011

Global Economic Outlook

Asia/Pacific Outlook: Dreaming of Decoupling

By Arpitha Bykere Mar 18, 2011

Global Economic Outlook

Australia Outlook: Watered Down Recovery

By Mikka Pineda Mar 17, 2011

Asia Weekly

Is Asia’s Inflation Spreading Beyond Food and Fuel?

By Michael Manetta and Mikka Pineda Feb 24, 2011

Economic Research

Flooding Dampens Australia’s Q4 GDP Growth

By Mikka Pineda Feb 24, 2011

Economic Research

Reserve Bank of Australia: Waiting for the Floods to Subside

By Mikka Pineda Feb 22, 2011

Asia Weekly

Asia Off to a Roaring Start in 2011

By Michael Manetta, Mikka Pineda and Adam Wolfe Feb 17, 2011

Economic Research

Australian Floods Revive Philippine Trade

By Mikka Pineda Feb 17, 2011

Asia Weekly

Priorities Shift From Revving Growth to Reducing Inflation

By Michael Manetta, Mikka Pineda, Arpitha Bykere and Adam Wolfe Jan 27, 2011

Economic Research

Floods Put a Crimp on Australian Exports

By Mikka Pineda Jan 27, 2011

Asia Weekly

Signs of Upside Risks to Growth and Inflation

By Michael Manetta, Mikka Pineda, Adam Wolfe and Arpitha Bykere Jan 20, 2011

Economic Research

Floods Push Australian Inflation to the Limit

By Mikka Pineda Jan 20, 2011

Asia Weekly

Economic Momentum Puts Pressure on Inflation and Trade Balances

By Mikka Pineda, Michael Manetta, Adam Wolfe and Arpitha Bykere Jan 6, 2011

Global Economic Outlook

Global Overview: 2011 Outlook

By Christian Menegatti, Nouriel Roubini and the RGE Macroeconomics Team Dec 7, 2010

Global Economic Outlook

Asia/Pacific: 2011 Outlook

By Arpitha Bykere Dec 7, 2010

Global Economic Outlook

Australia: 2011 Outlook

By Mikka Pineda Dec 7, 2010

Global Economic Outlook

Macro Forecasts: 2011 Outlook

By the RGE Macroeconomics Team Dec 7, 2010

Asia Weekly

Asia/Pacific Central Banks Chart the 2011 Course

By Mikka Pineda, Adam Wolfe, Arpitha Bykere and Michael Manetta Nov 25, 2010

Economic Research

Australia: Rising Mortgage Rates and Wage Inflation

By Mikka Pineda Nov 25, 2010

Asia Weekly

Government Measures Muffle Inflation, Commodities Cushion Exports

By Michael Manetta and Mikka Pineda Oct 28, 2010

Economic Research

Nov 4 Data Release: Australian Exports Jump

By Mikka Pineda Oct 28, 2010

Asia Weekly

Blazing Real Estate Markets Call for Regulatory Cooldown

By Arpitha Bykere, Adam Wolfe, Michael Manetta and Mikka Pineda Oct 21, 2010

Economic Research

Mortgage Stress to Dampen Australia's Housing Market

By Mikka Pineda Oct 21, 2010

Asia Weekly

Spotty Inflation and Normalization

By Michael Manetta, Mikka Pineda and Adam Wolfe Sep 30, 2010

Economic Research

Oct 5 Monetary Policy Meeting: Timing Australia’s Next Rate Hike

By Mikka Pineda Sep 30, 2010

Global Economic Outlook

Australia: September 2010 Outlook Update

By Mikka Pineda Sep 10, 2010

Global Economic Outlook

Global Overview: September 2010 Outlook Update

By Nouriel Roubini, Christian Menegatti and the RGE Macroeconomic Team Sep 10, 2010

Economic Research

Asia Week Ahead: Growth Concerns Outweigh Inflation Risks

By Arpitha Bykere, Michael Manetta, Mikka Pineda and Adam Wolfe Aug 26, 2010

Economic Research

Asia Week Ahead: Skidding Exports to Keep Rate Hikes Gradual Despite Inflation

By Arpitha Bykere, Michael Manetta, Mikka Pineda and Rachel Ziemba Jul 29, 2010

Economic Research

Asia Week Ahead: Challenges for DPJ, Rising Inflation and Slowing Industrial Activity

By Adam Wolfe, Mikka Pineda and Arpitha Bykere Jul 15, 2010

Global Economic Outlook

Asia/Pacific: Q3 2010 Outlook

By Arpitha Bykere Jul 12, 2010

Economic Research

Asia Week Ahead: Export Outlook Looks Bright for Commodities, Dim for Manufacturers

By Arpitha Bykere, Mikka Pineda and Rachel Ziemba Jul 8, 2010

Global Economic Outlook

Australia: Q3 2010 Outlook

By Mikka Pineda Jul 2, 2010

Economic Research

Asia Week Ahead: Central Banks Weigh Tightening With G3 on Hold and Global Growth Slowing

By Arpitha Bykere, Mikka Pineda, Adam Wolfe and Rachel Ziemba Jul 1, 2010

Economic Research

Asia Week Ahead: Growth and Policy Challenges Yield Revaluation, Capital Controls and Fiscal Austerity

By Arpitha Bykere, Mikka Pineda and Rachel Ziemba Jun 24, 2010

Economic Research

Asia Week Ahead: Signs of Easing Growth Challenge Monetary Policy

By Arpitha Bykere, Mikka Pineda, Adam Wolfe and Rachel Ziemba Jun 3, 2010

Economic Research

Asia Week Ahead: Political Tensions, Easing Growth and Delayed Monetary Tightening

By Arpitha Bykere, Mikka Pineda, Adam Wolfe and Rachel Ziemba May 27, 2010

Economic Research

Australia’s Big, Bad Mining Tax: What’s at Stake?

By Mikka Pineda May 25, 2010

Global Economic Outlook

Australia: Q2 2010 Outlook

By Mikka Pineda Apr 12, 2010

Economic Research

Will Lead Take the Lead Among Base Metals?

By Mikka Pineda Mar 15, 2010

Global Economic Outlook

Australia: Q1 2010 Outlook

By Mikka Pineda Jan 30, 2010

Economic Research

RGE Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar

By Mikka Pineda Jan 1, 2010

Economic Research

Fine-Tuning Australian Monetary Policy

By Mikka Pineda Oct 16, 2009

Economic Research

Australia Economic Outlook, Q4 2009

By Mikka Pineda Oct 7, 2009

Global Economic Outlook

Australia Economic Outlook, Q3 2009

By Mikka Pineda Jul 24, 2009

Economic Research

Are Australian Banks Better Off Than Those in the U.S. and EU?

By Mikka Pineda May 14, 2009

Economic Research

Accrual Accounting for Governments

By Mikka Pineda Oct 16, 2007

Economic Research

World Map of the U.S. Subprime Fallout

By Mikka Pineda Aug 1, 2007

EconoMonitors

Asia Channel

'Vulnerable to External Influences' - The Economic State of Australia (Part 2)

Satyajit Das Jan 31, 2012

Asia Channel

'Vulnerable to External Influences' - The Economic State of Australia (Part I)

Satyajit Das Jan 30, 2012

RGE Analysts

AUD - Too Strong for Its Own Good?

Daniel Fink Jul 21, 2011

RGE Analysts

Australia’s Ambiguous Carbon Legislation: A Primer

Daniel Fink Jun 28, 2011

Asia Channel

Houses Most Overvalued in Australia and Hong Kong, Most Undervalued in Japan

Edward Harrison Mar 15, 2011

Asia Channel

Continuing the Momentum—Asia’s Updated Economic Outlook

Anoop Singh Jul 12, 2010

Asia Channel

How Much Does a Mine Cost?

Mikka Pineda Jun 1, 2010

Latin America Channel

The New Banana Republics

Antonio Carlos Lemgruber Feb 11, 2010

The Wilder View

Global Consumer Confidence is Currently Less than Stellar

Rebecca Wilder Feb 2, 2010

Finance & Markets Channel

Botox Cures – Part 1

Satyajit Das Jan 25, 2010

Geostrategy Channel

The Dragon in the Alphabet Soup

Rumi Malott Morales Oct 26, 2009

RGE Analysts

Fine-Tuning Australian Monetary Policy

Mikka Pineda Oct 16, 2009

Asia Channel

Will China Control the World’s Rare Metals?

Monika Brown Sep 14, 2009

Daily Digest

Analysis

Statement on Monetary Policy

Reserve Bank of Australia  Feb, 2012

Analysis

RBA Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP), February 2011

Commonwealth Bank  Feb 10, 2012

Blogs

RBA Rates Decision & Roy Morgan Unemployment

Steve Keen's Debtwatch  Feb 10, 2012

Analysis

Statement on Monetary Policy February 2012 - Outlook

The Reserve Bank of Australia   Feb 09, 2012

Opinions

Farmers Feeling The Squeeze Of Marketplace Realities

Institute of Public Affairs  Chris Berg Feb 09, 2012

Blogs

The RBA Cut That No One Felt

WSJ  Cynthia Koons Feb 09, 2012

Analysis

Services Sector Lifts in January

AiG and Commonwealth Bank PSI  Feb 03, 2012

Analysis

Economics Update: RBA Board Meeting February 2012

Commonwealth Bank  Michael Blythe Feb 07, 2012

Analysis

Rates on hold could rattle confidence, says HIA

Housing Industry Association  Feb 07, 2012

Analysis

Retail Trade: 2011 - Biggest Slump Since the 1980

St. George   Besa Deda Feb 06, 2012

News

Queensland Town Evacuated Amid Fresh Flood Fears

WSJ  James Glynn Feb 06, 2012

News

December sales even worse than predicted

The Australian  Blair Speedy Feb 06, 2012

News

RBA rate decision 'a close call' amid mixed economic data

The Australian  Adam Creighton Feb 06, 2012

Analysis

Retail turnover falls 0.1% in December 2011

Australian Bureau of Statistics  Feb 06, 2012

News

HIA Trades Report Highlights Need for Reform

Housing Industry Association  Feb 03, 2012

Opinions

Who'll Drag Us Free Of Our Heavy Debt Burden?

Institute of Public Affairs  Julie Novak Feb 03, 2012

News

Weak Approvals Confirm Need for Stimulus

Housing Industry Association  Feb 02, 2012

News

ABS House Prices Confirm Modest Falls in 2011

Housing Industry Association  Feb 01, 2012

News

Housing approvals tumble amid gloom

The Australian  David Uren and Adam Creighton Feb 03, 2012

Analysis

Trade Balance – Exports Show Resilienc

St. George   Janu Chan Feb 02, 2012

Analysis

Building Approvals – Battered and Bruised

St. George   Besa Deda Feb 02, 2012

Analysis

Dwelling approvals fall in December

Australian Bureau of Statistics  Feb 02, 2012

Blogs

House Prices outlook for 2012

Steve Keen's Debtwatch  Feb 01, 2012

News

Australia Has A$1.709 Billion Trade Surplus

NASDAQ  Feb 01, 2012

News

Australian, N.Z. Dollars Rise as Manufacturing Signals Economic Recovery

Bloomberg  Catarina Saraiva and Kristine Aquino Feb 01, 2012

News

Asia Manufacturing Picture Improves Despite Strains

WSJ  Martin Vaughan Feb 01, 2012

News

Uncertainty caps factory output, PMI shows

The Australian  Feb 1, 2012

News

No Christmas Cheer for New Home Sales

Housing Industry Association  Harley Dal Feb 1, 2012

Analysis

Business numbers rise

Australian Bureau of Statistics  Jan 31, 2012

Analysis

NAB Business Survey December 2011

National Australia Bank  Alan Oster Jan 31, 2012

News

Business confidence ticks up as rate cuts offset gloom

Sydney Morning Herald  Jan 31, 2012

News

House prices may have hit bottom

Sydney Morning Herald  Simon Johanson Jan 31, 2012

News

FTA Set To Take Centre Stage At Malaysia-Australia Meet

Bernama  Prem Kumar Panjamothy Jan 30, 2012

Analysis

CPI December Quarter 2011

Commonwealth Bank  Jan 25, 2012

Opinions

Benign Inflation Leaves Room for Further Rate Cuts

Housing Industry Association  Jan 25, 2012

News

ABS CPI December quarter 2011 unchanged

Australian Bureau of Statistics  Jan 25, 2012

News

Long-term unemployment rises

Australian Bureau of Statistics  Jan 24, 2012

News

Jobless rate to surge if Europe fails to avert disaster

The Australian  Sid Maher Jan 23, 2012

News

Soft inflation pressure lifts chance of Reserve Bank rate cut

The Australian  James Glynn Jan 23, 2012

Analysis

Producer Price Index – QIV 2011

Commonwealth Bank  Jan 23, 2012

Analysis

Producer Prices – Showing Restraint

St. George   Besa Deda Jan 23, 2012

Blogs

Celebrating New Year with a $1.1bn deal

FT - beyondbrics  Stefan Wagstyl Jan 23, 2012

Analysis

International trade prices, QIV 2011

Commonwealth Bank  Jan 19, 2012

News

Aust economy strong despite gloomy report

Sydney Morning Herald  Ed Logue Jan 18, 2012

Research

Debt and deleveraging: Uneven progress on the path to growth

McKinsey  Charles Roxburgh Jan, 2012

News

Govt determined on budget surplus: PM

Sydney Morning Herald  Jan 20, 2012

News

Data masks darkest result since 1992

The Australian  Adam Creighton Jan 20, 2012

News

Australia's unemployment rate at 5.2 per cent in December 2011

Australian Bureau of Statistics  Jan 19, 2012

Opinions

Forecasts not all bad news at home

The Sydney Morning Herald  Jessica Irvine Jan 19, 2012

News

Economy shed jobs at year's end

The Sydney Morning Herald  Chris Zappone Jan 19, 2012

News

Jobless rate holds at 5.2pc

The Australian  Geoffrey Rogow Jan 19, 2012

News

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

Melbourne Institute  Dec 2011

Analysis

Labour Force – The Road to Nowhere

St. George   Besa Deda Jan 19, 2012

Analysis

Labour Force: Jobs market “pale and wan” in December.

Commonwealth Bank  Jan 19, 2012

News

Trend is right, but land sales remain at low levels

Housing Industry Association  Andrew Harve Jan 19, 2012

News

ABS Confirms Weak Housing Activity

Housing Industry Association  Harley Dale Jan 18, 2012

News

Australia Job Losses Cap Worst Year Since 1992

Bloomberg  Michael Heath Jan 18, 2012

News

Aussie Dollar Declines as Employment Falls; Kiwi Drops on Consumer Prices

Bloomberg  Candice Zachariahs Jan 18, 2012

Analysis

Residential construction upside?

Commonwealth Bank  Jan 18, 2012

Analysis

Consumer Sentiment – January 2012: Better times expected, but not yet.

Commonwealth Bank  James McIntyre Jan 18, 2012

Analysis

Modest recovery in Consumer Sentiment

Westpac  Jan 18, 2012

News

Consumer confidence steadied by rate cuts

The Sydney Morning Herald  Chris Zappone Jan 17, 2012

Analysis

Housing Finance November

Commonwealth Bank  Jan 16, 2012

News

Nov home loans beat market expectations

The Sydney Morning Herald  Jan 16, 2012

Opinions

New Home Lending Yet To Fire, Says HIA

Housing Industry Association  Jan 16, 2012

News

Weak data pointing to another rate cut

The Australian  Adam Creighton Jan 16, 2012

News

Inflation rises sharply in December: TD Securities-Melbourne Institute

The Australian  Geoffrey Rogow Jan 16, 2012

Analysis

Housing Finance: Deeper Signs of Recovery

St. George   Besa Deda Jan 16, 2012

News

Aussie, New Zealand Dollars Decline on Europe, Before China Growth Report

Bloomberg  Candice Zachariahs Jan 15, 2012

News

Australia Home-Loan Approvals Gain in November on Interest Rate Reduction

Bloomberg  Candice Zachariahs Jan 15, 2012

News

ANZ standard variable rate unchanged, says CEO Chronican

The Australian  Scott Murdoch Jan 13, 2012

News

Acting Treasurer Bill Shorten dismisses JP Morgan report on risk of recession

The Australian  Scott Murdoch and Lanai Vasek Jan 14, 2012

News

Australian economy vulnerable to recession: JPMorgan

The Australian  Scott Murdoch Jan 14, 2012

News

New Home Sales Bounce on First Rate Cut

Housing Industry Association  Jan 09, 2012

News

Building approvals boosted by rate cut

Sydney Morning Herald  Chris Zappone Jan 10, 2012

Analysis

The economy in 2012 – risks & issues

Commonwealth Bank  Jan 09, 2012

Analysis

Australian & NZ weekly

Westpac  Jan 09, 2012

Analysis

Building Approvals – The Big Victorian Bounce

St. George Bank  Janu Chan Jan 10, 2012

Analysis

Retail Trade – A Cold Snap and Caution

St. George Bank  Janu Chan Jan 09, 2012

News

Retail turnover flat in November 2011

Australian Bureau of Statistics  Jan 09, 2012

Analysis

Cooperation from Strength The United States, China and the South China Sea

Center for a New American Security  Robert D. Kaplan, Ian Storey, M. Taylor Fravel, Peter A. Dutton, Patrick M. Cronin, James R. Holmes and Will Rogers Jan 09, 2012

Analysis

November trade surplus narrows modestly to $1.38bn

Commonwealth Bank  John Peters Jan 05, 2012

News

Services sector faces headwinds

Sydney Morning Herald  Jan 05, 2012