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Belgium
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Macroeconomy
Belgium: Economic Profile
Belgium Returns to Growth; Escapes Recession
Belgium Agrees Further Spending Cuts Under EU Pressure
Belgium : Eurozone : Europe : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :
Geostrategy
NATO's Future Role
NATO in Afghanistan: Obama Unwinds Troop Increase
U.S.-Afghan Relations: Tensions Mount
Baltics : Belgium : Emerging Europe and CIS : Eurozone : Nordics : Norway : Romania : Southeast Europe : Turkey : Europe : Geostrategy : Foreign Policy and Geostrategic Risks : International Organizations :
Eurozone Outlook Update: Crumbling Growth Prospects
Following a sharp slowdown in economic activity in Q2, we expect to see nearly flat economic growth in H2 2011, with a rising risk of a renewed quarterly contraction. In 2012, the eurozone economy will register only a moderate economic expansion, with risks skewed to the downside. Given the ECB’s preference for a more gradual, behind-the-curve approach, our base case envisions it cutting interest rates by 25 bps in December and fully reversing the monetary policy tightening implemented earlier this year by end-Q1 2012, as overall inflation falls back below 2%. We still view a series of sequential public debt rescheduling, with bail-ins (potentially even in large countries), as the most likely course of action over the next five years. Since debt relief alone does not address the peripheral economies’ competitiveness problems, an exit from the currency union—in particular by Greece and Portugal—to restore growth remains a considerable risk.
Read the latest Eurozone Outlook
Economic Research
Europe Weekly
EZ Crisis Response; Eastern Europe Banks; ECB Monetary Policy; Hungary and the IMF; Belgian Politics; EZ Calendar
By Nov 25, 2011
Conference Call
Conference Call Highlights: Can the EZ Be Brought Back From the Brink?
By Nov 17, 2011
Economic Research
Low Inflation in EZ Core Threatens Periphery’s Efforts to Regain Competitiveness
By Oct 21, 2011
Economic Research
Much Ado About Relatively Little: Contagion Risks From an Orderly Greek Debt Restructuring Are Modest, Contained and Manageable
By May 24, 2011
Europe Weekly
Eurozone Core Comes Up Trumps in Q1; UK, EZ Periphery Moving at Half Speed
By May 13, 2011
Economic Research
Q2 2011 Geostrategy Note: The Scent of Jasmine, Japan's Mega-Crisis and Other Global Drama
By Mar 24, 2011
Economic Research
An Orderly Market-Based Approach to the Restructuring of Eurozone Sovereign Debts Obviates the Need for Statutory Approaches
By Nov 15, 2010
EconoMonitors
Daily Digest
Analysis
Report on the public consultation on the European Commission Green Paper on the feasibility of introducing Stability Bonds
EU Commission May 15, 2012
Analysis
Commission's first Alert Mechanism Report: tackling macroeconomic imbalances in the EU
European Commission Feb 14, 2012
News
Spain, Luxembourg Become Latest Nations to Approve Expanded Power for EFSF
Bloomberg Sep 15, 2011
Opinions
Debating the Common Currency: 'Euro Bonds Would Destroy the Euro'
Spiegel Online Interview Aug 23, 2011
News
Flash estimate for the second quarter of 2011: Euro area and EU27 GDP up by 0.2%
Eurostat Aug 16, 2011
Analysis
August 2011: What to do when the euro crisis reaches the core?
CEPS Centre for European Policy Studies Aug 15, 2011
News
Statement by President Barroso on the euro area sovereign bond markets
EU Commission Aug 03, 2011
Analysis
Massively increasing crowding-out effects: The premium for "fiscally cautious" countries
Natixis Aug 02, 2011
News
Schaeuble Says European Union Must Prevent Uncontrolled Euro Member Exits
Bloomberg Jul 27, 2011
Blogs
Negotiations for a new Belgian government have been suspended until the middle of August
Crisis in Belgium Jul 27, 2011
News
Roubini Sees Reduced Threat of Euro Breakup, Deflation in Advanced Nations
Bloomberg Jul 26, 2011
Analysis
European growth and renewal: The path from crisis to recovery
McKinsey Global Institute Jul 22, 2011
News
Statement by President Barroso ahead of the July 21, 2011 meeting of the Heads of State or Government of the Euro area
European Commission Jul 20, 2011
Analysis
Treaty establishing the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) signed
EU Commission Jul 11, 2011
Analysis
Euro Area Policies: 2011 Article IV Consultation—Lessons from the European Financial Stability Framework Exercise; and Selected Issues Paper
IMF Jul 20, 2011
Analysis
Euro Area Policies: Spillover Report for the 2011 Article IV consultation with Member Countries
IMF Jul 20, 2011
Analysis
Euro Area Policies: 2011 Article IV Consultation—Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Member Countries
IMF Jul 20, 2011
Analysis
IMF Executive Board Concludes Article IV Consultation on Euro Area Policies
IMF Jul 19, 2011
Analysis
Euro Area Policies: 2011 Article IV Consultation - Selected Issues Paper; and Lessons from the European Financial Stability Framework Exercise
IMF Jul 19, 2011
Analysis
Euro Area Policies: Spillover Report for the 2011 Article IV Consultation and Selected Issues
IMF Jul 19, 2011
RESEARCH AND STRATEGY FIXTURES
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Top 10 Most Read
Featured Economic Research and Market Strategy
Featured Analysis
What’s On Nouriel’s Mind: Where Are the H2 Growth Drivers?
“A confluence of factors—the economic outlook, policy challenges (as policy makers run out of bullets) and tail risks—make me very cautious about H2.”
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