Brazil

RGE's Q1 2010 Brazil Outlook

Strong domestic demand and a low base, together with an improved global outlook, should lead to a healthy economic performance in 2010 from a slight contraction in 2009. Large countercyclical fiscal and monetary efforts, likely to be removed slowly in 2010, inform the recovery story and will continue to have a positive impact on consumer and business confidence. We now expect GDP to grow 5.3% y/y in 2010 following a -0.2% y/y performance in 2009. This reflects an upwards revision from our 4.2% y/y projection three months ago, owing to strong private consumption (5.8% y/y vs. 3.9% y/y in 2009) and fixed investment (15.6% y/y vs. -11.5% y/y in 2009). Net exports should have a negative impact on growth as we anticipate real imports to expand 18% y/y (-14.2% y/y in 2009), on the back of buoyant domestic demand, while exports will likely grow 5.5% y/y (-10.4% y/y in 2009). RGE has recently revised up growth…

Read the Q1 2010 Brazil Outlook.