skip to main content

Canada

Macro View

Markets

Finance & Banking

Geostrategic & Long Term Issues

Key Indicators

GDP at basic prices by NAICS
All industries
(Mil. 2002 CAD, SAAR)
1218664,1222190,1232850,1231539,1231519 1,231,519
Labour force survey estimates
Total Employment
(Ths. persons, SA)
16945.3,16963.2,17071.9,17096.6,17189.8 17,189.8
Consumer Price Index
All-items
(2002=100, 2005 basket, SA)
116.1,115.9,116,115.8,115.5 115.5
Retail trade by trade group
Total
All Trade Groups - Canada, (Thousands of Canadian Dollars, SA)
34934904,35294608,35246888,35298848,35662352 35,662,352
Merchandise Trade by Major Groups
Balance of Payments - Exports - Total of all Merchandise
(Millions of Canadian Dollars, SA)
33018.4,34017.5,33532.6,32931.8,34482.3 34,482.3
Housing Price Index
Total - house and land value
(1997=100, NSA)
156.6,156.7,157.1,157.5,158 158
data by Moody's

RGE's Q3 2010 Canada Outlook

RGE has marginally revised up its projections for Canadian growth to 3.2% in 2010, reflecting in part a stronger Q1 result and the strength of labor market indicators in Q2. Given our views on the global outlook, our concerns about the sustainability of the wealth and income effects that have driven Canadian demand, we find consensus estimates of 3.6% for 2010 and 3.1% for 2011 optimistic. Like many economies, Canada’s growth rate will decelerate in H2 2010 as external demand slows, stimulus wanes and property markets cool. The increase in purchasing power, relatively stronger household, corporate and government balance sheets will keep domestic economic conditions by far the strongest of the G7 (though this isn’t a difficult feat). However, Canada’s open economy makes it susceptible to the reduction in global demand and financing, weighing on domestic income growth.  

Read the Q3 2010 Canada Outlook.

RGE Analysis

CROSS ASSET MONTHLY

Credit: Who Gets Their Pound of Flesh?

David Nowakowski Aug 31, 2010

RGE STRATEGY VIEW

The History of Risk—Correlations, Volatilities and Z-Scores

By David Nowakowski and Natalia Gurushina Aug 25, 2010

North America Focus: Weak U.S. Data Spark 'Race to the Bottom'; Canada's Consumers Still Cool

By Prajakta Bhide, Tetiana Sears, Christian Menegatti and Rachel Ziemba Aug 23, 2010

RGE STRATEGY VIEW

Renewable Energy: Investor Dreams and Sector Realities

By Shelley Goldberg Aug 19, 2010

North America Focus: U.S.: Warming Up the Helicopter; Canada: Inflation Moderates Going Forward

By Christian Menegatti, Prajakta Bhide, Tetiana Sears and Rachel Ziemba Aug 16, 2010

North America Focus: U.S. Flying on One Engine; Canadian Labor Market Flashing Red?

By Prajakta Bhide, Tetiana Sears and Rachel Ziemba Aug 9, 2010

North America Focus: U.S. Economy Proceeds Sluggishly; U.S. and Canadian Labor Markets Examined

By Prajakta Bhide, Tetiana Sears, Christian Menegatti and Rachel Ziemba Aug 2, 2010

RGE STRATEGY VIEW

Q3 2010 Scenario Analysis: Macroeconomic Factors & Asset Class Investment Implications

By Christian Menegatti, Rachel Ziemba, Arnab Das, Arun Motianey, Gina Sanchez, Natalia Gurushina and David Nowakowski Aug 2, 2010

RGE STRATEGY VIEW

Cross Asset Monthly: A Summer of Discontent: Navigating the Tug of War Between Greed and Fear

By Arnab Das, Natalia Gurushina, Arun Motianey, David Nowakowski, Gina Sanchez and Jennifer Kapila Jul 27, 2010

North America Focus: Growth Slowdown Preoccupies the Fed; Bank of Canada Takes It Slow

By Prajakta Bhide, Tetiana Sears, Christian Menegatti and Rachel Ziemba Jul 26, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Canada: Q3 2010 Outlook

By Tetiana Sears and Rachel Ziemba Jul 10, 2010

The Costs of Oil Drilling

By Mikka Pineda and Gary Clark Jun 24, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Canada: Q2 2010 Outlook

By Tetiana Sears and Rachel Ziemba Apr 12, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Canada: Q1 2010 Outlook

By Tetiana Sears and Rachel Ziemba Jan 30, 2010

Canada Economic Outlook, Q4 2009

Rachel Ziemba Oct 7, 2009

Canada Economic Outlook, Q3 2009

Rachel Ziemba Jul 24, 2009

EconoMonitors

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Canada: Can Consumption Drive the Great White North?

Tetiana Sears and Rachel Ziemba Aug 30, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Canada’s Tepid Income Growth Likely to Moderate Strong Private Consumption

Tetiana Sears and Rachel Ziemba Aug 23, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

The Economic Impact of Sales Tax Harmonization in Ontario and B.C.

Tetiana Sears Jul 19, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

RGE 360

RGE Analyst Team Jun 18, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Loonie Back Above Parity

Rachel Ziemba Apr 6, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Energy Sector Royalty Changes in Alberta

Rachel Ziemba Mar 12, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Canada’s Growth: Not Yet a Win?

Rachel Ziemba Mar 2, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Canadian Housing Worries?

Rachel Ziemba Dec 30, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

RGE's Wednesday Note - Energy Insecurity in 2010 and Beyond?

Rachel Ziemba Dec 23, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

CoCos: No Antidote to Go-Go Boom-Bust Cycles

Jennifer Kapila and Arnab Das Dec 8, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Will China Control the World’s Rare Metals?

Monika Brown Sep 14, 2009

Daily Digest

Analysis

Long-Term Trends in Public Finances in the G-7 Economies

IMF  Carlo Cottarelli and Andrea Schaechter Sep 01, 2010

Research

Fiscal Space

IMF  Atish R. Ghosh, Jonathan D. Ostry, Jun I. Kim and Mahvash S. Qureshi Sep 01, 2010

Analysis

Not Here? Housing Market Policy and the Risk of a Housing Bust

CD Howe  Jim MacGee August 2010

Analysis

Tax Man Lifts Household Income And Savings Rate In Q2

TD Bank Economics  Diana Petramala Sep 01, 2010

News

Carney Rate Outlook Fades in Best Month for Bonds Since '08: Canada Credit

Bloomberg  Alexandre Deslongchamps and Ilan Kolet Sep 01, 2010

News

Bank of Nova Scotia Profit Rises 14% on Record Consumer Banking Earnings

Bloomberg  Sean B. Pasternak Aug 31, 2010

Analysis

Canadian GDP: Back to Square One

CIBC Economics  Avery Shenfeld Aug 31, 2010

Analysis

Canadian GDP: Lazy Days of Summer

BMO Capital Markets  Douglas Porter Aug 31, 2010

Analysis

Canadian economic accounts Q2 2010

Statistics Canada  Aug 31, 2010

Analysis

Canadian economic growth cools to a more sustainable rate

TD Bank Economics  Diana Petramala Aug 31, 2010

Analysis

Canada: Monthly Chartered Bank Statistics - July 2010

TD Bank Economics  Francis Fong Aug 30, 2010

Analysis

North America Focus: Watching Bernanke; Canada’s Year of Two Halves

RGE  Rachel Ziemba and Tetiana Sears Aug 30, 2010

Analysis

Canadian Current Account for Q2 2010: A Picture of What Lies Ahead

CIBC  Krishen Rangasamy Aug 30, 2010

Analysis

Current Account Widens On Growing Trade Deficit

TD Bank Economics  Francis Fong Aug 30, 2010

News

Canadian Securities Regulator Plan May Backfire, Quebec's St-Gelais Says

Bloomberg  Theophilos Argitis May 14, 2010

Analysis

Canada’s Current Account: Crimson Tide

BMO Capital Markets  Douglas Porter Aug 30, 2010

Analysis

Canada's balance of international payments Q2 2010

Statistics Canada  Aug 30, 2010

Blogs

A Potash warning: Sinofert is ‘very concerned’

FT Alphaville  Aug 26, 2010

Analysis

Excessive Centralization: A threat to our Economic Future

Edmonton Chamber of Commerce  Michel Leblanc and And Martin Salloum June 2010

Blogs

The national securities regulator: A federal travesty

National Post  Pierre Lortie May 20, 2010

Analysis

The Fiscal Monitor June 2010

Department of Finance, Canada  June 2010

Analysis

Canada economy: Quick View - Weak retail

Economist Intelligence Unit  Aug 26, 2010

News

CIBC rewarded for cautious stance

The Globe and Mail  Grant Robertson Aug 25, 2010

News

BMO results lower bar for bank sector

The Globe and Mail  Grant Robertson Aug 24, 2010

News

National Bank beats expectations

The Globe and Mail  Tim Kiladze Aug 26, 2010

Analysis

Canadian Corporate Profits Slide in Q2

TD Bank Financial  Dina Cover Aug 25, 2010

Analysis

Canada: House Monthly price rise 1.5% in June 2010

Teranet National Bank of Canada  Aug 25, 2010

Analysis

Canada: Q2 2010 Corporate Profits Down 1.8% from Q1

Statistics Canada  Aug 25, 2010

News

Canada's Dollar Touches Seven-Week Low as Investor Risk Demand Suffers

Bloomberg  Chris Fournier Aug 25, 2010

Analysis

Canadian Retail Sales: Better Than the Headline

CIBC Economics  Krishen Rangasamy Aug 24, 2010

Analysis

Retail Sales: More Than Meets the Eye

BMO Capital Markets  Douglas Porter Aug 24, 2010

Analysis

Retail Sales Record Marginal Improvement

TD Bank Economics  Francis Fong Aug 24, 2010

Analysis

Canada Retail trade June 2010

Statistics Canada  Aug 24, 2010

News

Potash in talks to block BHP hostile bid

FT  Javier Blas and William MacNamara Aug 23, 2010

Analysis

Canada Consumer Prices – July 2010

IHS Global Insight  Aug 20, 2010

Analysis

Canadian July CPI: Crunchy on the Outside But Soft at the Core

CIBC Economics  Krishen Rangasamy Aug 20, 2010

Analysis

Hardly Sizzling Times for Canadian CPI

BMO Capital Markets  Douglas Porter Aug 20, 2010

Analysis

Provincial Inflation Monitor July 2010

TD Bank Economics  Shahrzad Fard Aug 20, 2010

Analysis

HST masks a continued moderation in Canadian consumer inflation

TD Bank Economics  Diana Petramala Aug 20, 2010

Analysis

Consumer Price Index July 2010

Statistics Canada  Aug 20, 2010

Analysis

Public-sector workers trail in wage pacts

Financial Post  Paul Vieira Aug 18, 2010

Analysis

Canadian Feds Ahead of Plan on Fiscal Rebalancing

The Confidence Board of Canada  Glen Hodgson and Matthew Stewart Jul 29, 2010

Analysis

Cdn Housing Feels the Heat...and Chills

BMO Capital Markets  Douglas Porter Aug 16, 2010

Analysis

Manufacturing Sales Defy Analyst Expectations

TD Bank Economics  Shahrzad Fard Aug 17, 2010

Analysis

BC and Ontario housing markets feel effects of HST in July

The Canadian Real Estate Association  Aug 16, 2010

Analysis

Canada: Housing on downward pitch in July’s Dog Days

TD Bank Economics  Grant Bishop Aug 16, 2010

Analysis

Canada's international transactions in securities in June 2010

Statistics Canada  Aug 16, 2010

Analysis

Canada: New motor vehicle sales June 2010

Statistics Canada  Aug 13, 2010

Blogs

Uh-Oh Canada?

Conscience of a Liberal  Paul Krugman Aug 16, 2010

Analysis

FX Forecast Update August 2010: Global mid-cycle slowdown to support USD, JPY and CHF

Danske Bank  Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, Kasper Kirkegaard, Sverre Holbek and John M. Hydeskov Aug 16, 2010

News

PIMCO bond king Bill Gross has Canada in his sights

The Globe and Mail  David Parkinson Aug 12, 2010

Analysis

Does An Out-Sized Canadian Job Gain Lie Around the Corner?

Scotia Bank  Derek Holt and Gorica Djerec Aug 11, 2010

Analysis

North America Focus: U.S. Flying on One Engine; Canadian Labor Market Flashing Red?

RGE  Rachel Ziemba, Prajakta Bhide and Tetiana Sears Aug 9, 2010

Analysis

Canadian Merchandise Trade: Two-Way Trade Stalls

CIBC Economics  Krishen Rangasamy Aug 11, 2010

Analysis

Canadian Trade Balance weakens in June

TD Bank Economics  Grant Bishop Aug 11, 2010

Analysis

Canadian Exports: Trading Down

BMO Capital Markets  Douglas Porter Aug 11, 2010

Analysis

Canadian Trade Balance Widens in June 2010

Statistics Canada  Aug 11, 2010

Analysis

Canadian Resale housing forecast revised

Canadian Real Estate Association  Jul 30, 2010

Analysis

Global Real Estate Trends

Scotia Bank  Adrienne Warren Aug 10, 2010

Analysis

Canadian Housing Starts: Singled Out

BMO Capital Markets  Robert Kavcic Aug 10, 2010

Analysis

Canadian housing starts remain on downward trend

TD Bank Economics  Dina Cover Aug 10, 2010

Analysis

Canada: Housing Starts July 2010

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation  Aug 10, 2010

Analysis

Labour Force Survey July 2010

Statistics Canada  Aug 06, 2010

Analysis

Canada: New Housing Price Index June 2010

Statistics Canada  Aug 10, 2010

Analysis

Canada: The Educational Services Conundrum

TD Bank Economics  Francis Fong Aug 06, 2010

Analysis

Canada's energy industry: Tarred with the same brush

Economist  Aug 05, 2010

Analysis

Help-Wanted Index: July 2010

Conference Board of Canada  July 2010

News

How Russia's Grain Ban Will Help the Canadian Dollar

Seeking Alpha  Marc Chandler Aug 06, 2010

Analysis

Canadian and U.S. Vehicle Sales — July 2010

Scotia Bank  Carlos Gomes Aug 04, 2010

Analysis

Canadian Jobs: Due for Disappointment

CIBC Economics  Avery Shenfeld Aug 06, 2010

Analysis

Canadian Jobs: School’s Out For Summer

BMO Capital Markets  Douglas Porter Aug 06, 2010

Analysis

Canadian employment was little changed in July

Statistics Canada  Aug 06, 2010

Analysis

Canadian Employment Took A Breather In July

TD Bank Economics  Pascal Gauthier Aug 06, 2010

Analysis

Small Businesses Settling into the Mid-Cycle Moderation

TD Bank Economics  Francis Fong Aug 05, 2010

Analysis

Canada: Building Permits June 2010

Statistics Canada  Aug 05, 2010

Analysis

Canadian Monetary Policy: Greater Transparency Needed

CD Howe  Angelo Melino and Michael Parkin July 2010

Analysis

Trend Spotting: NAFTA Disputes After Fifteen Years

CD Howe  Lawrence L. Herman Jul 22, 2010

Analysis

Canada’s Fiscal Exit Strategy

TD Bank Economics  Derek Burleton and Pascal Gauthier Aug 03, 2010

Analysis

Global Economic Outlook July 2010

MFC Global Investment Management  July, 2010

Analysis

The Canadian Century

Foreign Policy  Jason Clemens, Niels Veldhuis and Brian Lee Crowley June 2010

Blogs

Canada: The federal deficit bottoms out

Worthwhile Canadian Initiative  Stephen Gordon Jul 23, 2010

Research

The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis

IMF  Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti and Philip R. Lane Jul 31, 2010

Analysis

Canadian GDP for May: Resources to the Rescue

CIBC Economics  Krishen Rangasamy Jul 30, 2010

Analysis

Canadian Economic Momentum Ebbing

BMO Capital Markets  Benjamin Reitzes Jul 30, 2010

Analysis

Canadian Real GDP soft in May

TD Bank Economics  Diana Petramala Jul 30, 2010

Analysis

Canada: Real GDP for May Rose 0.1%

Statistics Canada  Jul 30, 2010

Analysis

Power Sharing: Developing Inter-Provincial Electricity Trade

CD Howe  Jan Carr Jul 30, 2010

News

Pipeline leak deals blow to Canada’s oil sands industry

Financial Times  Bernard Simon Jul 26, 2010

Research

Northern Lifeblood: Empowering Northern Leaders to Protect the Mackenzie River Basin from Oil Sands Risks

Pembina Institute  Jennifer Grant, Simon Dyer, Nathan Lemphers and Jennifer Dagg Jul 21, 2010

Analysis

Canada: Teranet - National Bank House Price Index June 2010

Teranet National Bank of Canada  Jul 28, 2010

Analysis

Homes overpriced, bank reports say

Financial Post  Garry Marr May 25, 2010

Analysis

As the Earnings Roll, Investors Look Ahead

CIBC Economics  Peter Buchanan Jul 19, 2010

Analysis

MONTHLY CHARTERED BANK STATISTICS - JUNE 2010

TD Bank Economics  Francis Fong Jul 26, 2010

Analysis

How the census went from a quinquennial chore to a national crisis

Macleans  Aaron Wherry Jul 24, 2010

Analysis

Canadian June CPI: The Inflation Nadir for 2010

CIBC Economics  Krishen Rangasamy Jul 23, 2010

Analysis

Canadian CPI: C$ Bores Into Core

BMO Capital Markets  Sal Guatieri Jul 23, 2010