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Central Europe Outlook Update: Austerity Bites

Growth remains below trend in all three Central European (CE-3) economies. Poland continues to be the regional leader, but a recovery in domestic demand will gradually lift growth rates in Hungary and the Czech Republic. Fiscal consolidation will dampen domestic demand in all three countries. In the Czech Republic, front-loaded fiscal tightening will hit growth in 2011, while Poland and Hungary will feel fiscal measures from 2012 onward. As negative supply shocks increase inflation across the region, monetary policy responses have differed depending on the strength of domestic demand and demand-side price pressures.

Read the latest Central Europe Outlook

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Bloomberg  Olga Tanas and Evgenia Pismennaya May 16, 2013

News

Payment risks dangerously high in Hungary

Portfolio.hu (free registration)  May 16, 2013

Blogs

Poland and Hungary Cut Debt Costs at Bond Auction

Wall Street Journal  Emese Bartha May 16, 2013

News

Czech GDP: it gets worse

Financial Times  May 15, 2013

News

Hungarian Forint Gains on Growth Recovery, Other Currencies Lag

Wall Street Journal  May 15, 2013

Blogs

Hungary’s GDP: welcome surprise

Financial Times  Stefan Wagstyl May 15, 2013

News

Hungary GDP Growth Boosts Case to Exit EU Budget Monitoring

Bloomberg  Zoltan Simon May 15, 2013

Blogs

Bulgaria; An inconclusive election at an unhappy time

The Economist  V.v.B May 13, 2013

News

Hungary c.bank chief Matolcsy did not vote on rate cut, minutes show

Portfolio.hu (free registration)  May 15, 2013

Analysis

Czech Republic: GDP Preliminary Estimate 1st Quarter of 2013

Czech Statistical Office  May 15, 2013

News

Lithuania's Sadzius Says Joining Euro to Help Investment

Bloomberg  Rebecca Christie and Jim Brunsden May 13, 2013

Analysis

Poland: Balance of payments in March 2013

National Bank of Poland  May 15, 2013

News

Romanian Economy Expanded More Than Estimated in First Quarter

Bloomberg  Andra Timu May 15, 2013

Analysis

Poland: Rate cut hopes rise as GDP growth slows down to 4-year low

Nordea Markets  Piotr Bujak May 14, 2013

News

Slovenia reaches wage cut agreement with trade unions

Reuters  Marja Novak May 13, 2013

News

Bulgarian party scuppers idea of broad coalition

Reuters  Tsvetelia Tsolova and Angel Krasimirov May 14, 2013

News

Bulgarian president says no need for new election

Reuters  Tsvetelia Tsolova May 15, 2013

Blogs

Central Europe Economies Post Mixed First Quarter

Wall Street Journal  Leos Rousek May 15, 2013

Blogs

Poland’s Economy Slows Sharply

Wall Street Journal  Marcin Sobczyk and Patryk Wasilewski May 14, 2013

Analysis

Poland Short Note: Disinflation continues

ERSTE Bank  Katarzyna Rzentarzewska May 15, 2013

Analysis

Czech Shortnote - Q1 2013 GDP disappoints, CZK over 26

ERSTE Bank  May 15, 2013

Analysis

Romania Q1 2013 real GDP – flash estimate

ERSTE Bank  Eugen Sinca May 15, 2013

News

Forint Jumps as Hungary Growth Tops Estimates: Budapest Mover

Bloomberg  Andras Gergely May 15, 2013

News

Hungary First-Quarter Growth Exceeds Economist Forecasts

Bloomberg  Zoltan Simon and Andras Gergely May 15, 2013

News

Russia Holds Rates for Eighth Month With Inflation Above Target

Bloomberg  Scott Rose and Olga Tanas May 15, 2013

Opinions

Getting the Turkish story right

Hurriyet Daily News  Emre Deliveli May 10, 2013

News

PM envisages GDP dash in Hungary - Why so upbeat?

Portfolio.hu (free registration)  May 09, 2013

News

Hungary PM asks corrective steps from EcoMin to help exit EDP

Portfolio.hu (free registration)  May 09, 2013

News

Hungary c.bank will not use FX reserves to eliminate forex loan problem - Matolcsy

Portfolio.hu (free registration)  May 09, 2013

Blogs

Turkey: a (modest) gift from the EBRD

Financial Times (Beyond BRICs)  Stefan Wagstyl and Neil Buckley May 09, 2013

Blogs

Coming soon to Poland – Vietnamese banking

Financial Times (Beyond BRICs)  Jan Cienski May 09, 2013

Blogs

Poland’s rate cut: start of a new cycle?

Financial Times (Beyond BRICs)  Jan Cienski May 09, 2013

Blogs

Blow to Poland’s shale ambitions as Talisman and Marathon pull out

Financial Times (Beyond BRICs)  Jan Cienski May 08, 2013

Blogs

Hungary’s Parliament Told to Reconsider Bill

Wall Street Journal  Margit Feher May 09, 2013

News

Slovenia Presents Overhaul Program for EU to Prove No Aid Needed

Bloomberg  Boris Cerni May 09, 2013

News

Romania’s Junk Credit Rating Maintained by S&P on ‘High’ Debt

Bloomberg  Irina Savu and Andra Timu May 09, 2013

News

Hungary Seeks Austerity-Free Way to Remove Budget Shackle

Bloomberg  Zoltan Simon and Andras Gergely May 09, 2013

News

Hungary Rejected Accelerated Rate Cuts, Matolcsy Says

Bloomberg  Zoltan Simon May 09, 2013

Analysis

EMEA Weekly: EMEA economies struggle to recover

Danske Markets Research  Sanna Kurronen and Stanislava Pravdová-Nielsen May 09, 2013

Analysis

Lithuania: CPI trend – still favourable for euro adoption

Danske Markets Research  Violeta Klyviene May 09, 2013

News

Russian inflation sharpens central bank dilemma on rates

Reuters  Jason Bush May 078, 2013

Blogs

Czech politics: The expulsion of Sudeten Germans is still raw

The Economist  K.S May 08, 2013

News

Slovenia sees deficit surge; plans tax hikes, privatisation

Reuters  Marja Novak May 08, 2013

Blogs

Polish Central Bank Cuts Main Rate to Record Low

Wall Street Journal  Marcin Sobczyk and Patryk Wasilewski May 08, 2013

News

Romania Cuts Inflation Forecast in Boost to Rate-Cut Pledge

Bloomberg  Irina Savu and Andra Timu May 08, 2013

Analysis

Poland: Central bank tries to revive the spluttering economy

Nordea Markets  Piotr Bujak May 08, 2013

Blogs

Polish politics: Tusk's travails

The Economist  G.C May 07, 2013

Analysis

Poland: ECB action pushing the Polish central bank back to easing

Nordea Markets  Piotr Bujak May 06, 2013

Analysis

Czech Macro Monitor: Economy remained in recession throughout 2012

Danske Bank  Stanislava Pravdová-Nielsen May 06, 2013

News

Slovenia postpones parliament vote on budget cap until late May

Reuters  Marja Novak May 07, 2013

News

Forint Gains on European Industry Recovery Signs: Budapest Mover

Bloomberg  Andras Gergely May 07, 2013

News

Czech Output Decline Signals Prolonged Recession

Bloomberg  Peter Laca May 07, 2013

News

Russian Inflation Quickens to 7.2% in April After March Slowdown

Bloomberg  Olga Tanas May 07, 2013

Analysis

Poland Macroscope on NBP: Rate to remain flat, but with considerable downside risk

ERSTE Bank  Katarzyna Rzentarzewska May 07, 2013

Analysis

Hungary Short Note: Rebound in industry continues

ERSTE Bank  Zoltan Arokszallasi May 07, 2013

News

Romania Holds Benchmark Rate as Cuts Beckon Amid Price Ease

Bloomberg  Irina Savu and Andra Timu May 02, 2013

Analysis

Little new under the Czech sun

Nordea Markets  Annika Lindblad May 02, 2013

News

Slovenian Bonds Rally After $3.5 Billion Government Debt Sale

Bloomberg  Agnes Lovasz May 03, 2013

News

EU Deficit Forecast Casts Doubt on Hungary Preocedure End

Bloomberg  Edith Balazs May 03, 2013

News

EU Says Latvian GDP to Grow at Bloc’s Fastest Pace in 2013, 2014

Bloomberg  Aaron Eglitis May 03, 2013

News

EU Sees Slovenian GDP Shrinking in 2013 on Bailout Risk

Bloomberg  Jasmina Kuzmanovic May 03, 2013

Analysis

Hungary Macro Monthly, May 2013

ERSTE Bank  May 03, 2013

Blogs

Slovenia and Hungary Need to Step Up Their Game, Says EU

Wall Street Journal  Sean Carney May 03, 2013

News

Hungary needs to do more to exit EDP - Commission

Portfolio.hu (free registration)  May 03, 2013

News

Slovenia issues $3.5 bln bond, buying time on reforms

Reuters  Davide Scigliuzzo May 02, 2013