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RGE's Q3 2010 Central Europe Outlook

On the Mend, Growing Stronger than the Eurozone

The Central European economies of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia (the so-called “CE-4”) are on the mend. All posted positive y/y growth in Q1 2010, and data suggests continued growth in Q2. Net exports are driving the recovery, helped by the global trade rebound and constrained imports, which are held back by lackluster domestic demand. Due to strong Q1 GDP readings and an improvement in the near-term export outlook, RGE has revised up the regional GDP growth forecast for 2010 to 2.1%, stronger than the 0.9% forecast for the eurozone and stronger than the 1.5% forecast in the previous Outlook.

Read the Q3 2010 Central Europe Outlook.

RGE Analysis

CROSS ASSET MONTHLY

Credit: Who Gets Their Pound of Flesh?

David Nowakowski Aug 31, 2010

CROSS ASSET MONTHLY

Commodities: No Pain, No Grain

Shelley Goldberg Aug 31, 2010

CROSS ASSET MONTHLY

Currencies: The End of Exuberance

Natalia Gurushina Aug 31, 2010

CROSS ASSET MONTHLY

Fixed Income: Unconventional Policies Create Uncertainty

Arun Motianey Aug 31, 2010

CROSS ASSET MONTHLY

Executive Summary: States of Flux: Stay Risk Averse

Arnab Das Aug 31, 2010

CROSS ASSET MONTHLY

Financial Institutions: Cracks in the EZ Façade

Jennifer Kapila Aug 31, 2010

RGE STRATEGY VIEW

Struggling to Break Free: Rising Correlations Part II

By David Nowakowski and Natalia Gurushina Aug 25, 2010

RGE STRATEGY VIEW

The History of Risk—Correlations, Volatilities and Z-Scores

By David Nowakowski and Natalia Gurushina Aug 25, 2010

RGE STRATEGY VIEW

Don’t Bet the Banks on an EZ Stress Test

By Jennifer Kapila, Elisa Parisi-Capone, Arnab Das and David Nowakowski Aug 12, 2010

RGE STRATEGY VIEW

Q3 2010 Scenario Analysis: Macroeconomic Factors & Asset Class Investment Implications

By Christian Menegatti, Rachel Ziemba, Arnab Das, Arun Motianey, Gina Sanchez, Natalia Gurushina and David Nowakowski Aug 2, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Central Europe: Q3 2010 Outlook

By Mary Stokes Jul 12, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Slovakia: Q3 2010 Outlook

By Mary Stokes Jul 12, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Czech Republic: Q3 2010 Outlook

By Mary Stokes Jul 12, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Hungary: Q3 2010 Outlook

By Mary Stokes Jul 12, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Poland: Q3 2010 Outlook

By Mary Stokes Jul 12, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Central Europe: Q2 2010 Outlook

By Mary Stokes Apr 12, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Central Europe: Q1 2010 Outlook

By Mary Stokes Jan 30, 2010

Eastern Europe: Out of the Danger Zone?

Mary Stokes and Jelena Vukotic Oct 21, 2009

Eastern Europe: Will Democracy Stay the Only Game in Town?

Jelena Vukotic and Michael Bogdan Apr 30, 2009

Eastern European Tinderbox: How Explosive Could it Get?

Mary Stokes, Jelena Vukotic and Elisa Parisi-Capone Feb 28, 2009

What's the Matter With Hungary?

Mary Stokes Oct 27, 2008

Vulnerabilities in Central and Southern Europe

Nouriel Roubini and Christian Menegatti Jun 6, 2006

What is the Risk of a Currency and Financial Crisis in Hungary?

Nouriel Roubini and Christian Menegatti Jun 1, 2006

EconoMonitors

Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor

The Sun Is Rising in the East

Anders Aslund Aug 19, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Budget Cuts in Europe: Meet the “Virtuosi” and the “Laggards”

Paolo Manasse Jul 28, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

RGE’s Wednesday Note: Hungary Suffers from Foot-in-Mouth Syndrome

Mary Stokes Jun 9, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Eurozone Newcomers Show Little Sympathy for Greek Woes

Jelena Vukotic May 10, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Growth Surprises and Drivers Are Changing in Eastern Europe

Marcus Svedberg Apr 20, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

RGE's Wednesday Note - What Are the Political Implications of Poland’s Tragedy?

Jelena Vukotic Apr 14, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

The German Economy Is Essentially "Intact"

Edward Hugh Mar 11, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

What Greece’s Fiscal Crisis Could Mean for Eastern Europe

Mary Stokes and Jelena Vukotic Feb 22, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Reigniting Growth in Emerging Europe

Marek Belka Feb 10, 2010

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

Medicine for Europe’s Sinking South

Nouriel Roubini and Arnab Das Feb 2, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Getting Ready to Join the Eurozone Club

Marek Belka Feb 2, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Unemployment Rates: U.S. Versus the Rest of the World

Rebecca Wilder Jan 31, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Bremmer-Roubini 2010 Global Forecast

Nouriel Roubini Jan 28, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Hungary isn't another Greece........Now is it?

Edward Hugh Jan 22, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Unemployment in Europe: It's Not Just Spain

Rebecca Wilder Jan 3, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Hungary's Economic Correction Still Fails to Convince

Edward Hugh Dec 29, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

How Much Unity in the United Arab Emirates?

Michael Moran and Rachel Ziemba Dec 9, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Moody’s: Iceland, Latvia and Hungary in “Fragile Stabilization”

Edward Harrison Sep 23, 2009

Europe EconoMonitor

As Hungary's "Correction" Heads For A Dead End, Time For A Change Of Course?

Edward Hugh Sep 21, 2009

Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor

Control High Inflation, Not Exchange Rates

Anders Aslund Sep 16, 2009

Europe EconoMonitor

Summer Vigour

Marcus Svedberg Sep 4, 2009

Daily Digest

Analysis

CEE Weekly: Summer season was only affected by bond bulls

KBC Banking & Insurance  Aug 30, 2010

News

Hungary: Strengthening of Swiss franc represents growth risk

Budapest Business Journal  Sep 02, 2010

Analysis

Slovak economy was driven by inventories in 2Q

ERSTE Bank  Sep 02, 2010

News

Slovak Premier Slams Euro Bailouts

Wall Street Journal  Leos Rousek Sep 02, 2010

Analysis

Slovakia: Economic growth was slightly revised up to 4.7% y/y

ERSTE Bank  Mária Valachyová Sep 02, 2010

Research

Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What did the Great Recession Change?

IMF  Aleš Bulíř, Kateřina Šmídková and Jan Babecký Sep 02, 2010

Analysis

Gross domestic product in the 2nd quarter of 2010

Slovak Statistical Office  Sep 02, 2010

Blogs

Slovak Prime Minister Wants Default Rules

New Europe, Wall Street Journal  Leos Rousek Sep 02, 2010

News

Hungary: External trade, detailed results January-June 2010

Hungarian Statistical Office  Sep 01, 2010

News

Hungary: Press Release on the Introduction of HUFONIA

National Bank of Hungary  Sep 01, 2010

Analysis

FACTBOX-Key political risks to watch in Poland

Reuters  Gareth Jones Sep 01, 2010

News

Slovak Finance Ministry forecasts 7.8-percent deficit for 2010

The Slovak Spectator  Sep 01, 2010

News

Polish president demands EU budget quid pro quo

EU Business  Sep 01, 2010

News

Hungary may need IMF if markets sour -cbank

Reuters  Krisztina Than Sep 01, 2010

Analysis

FACTBOX-Key political risks to watch in Hungary --Sept 2010

Reuters  Krisztina Than Sep 01, 2010

News

Hungary June trade surplus €564m, little changed from 1st reading

Budapest Business Journal  Sep 01, 2010

Blogs

Braver Hungary Walks Tight Rope with IMF

Wall Street Journal  Margit Feher Sep 01, 2010

News

Polish Manufacturing Grows at Fastest Pace Since 2007 on Domestic Demand

Bloomberg  Monika Rozlal and Dorota Bartyzel Sep 01, 2010

News

Europe queries Russia-Poland gas transit deal

EU Business  Sep 01, 2010

Analysis

Slovakia Monthly Forecast - September 2010

ERSTE Bank  Sep 01, 2010

News

Polish Inflation Rate Probably Rose for First Time in 2010

Bloomberg  Monika Rozlal and Dorota Bartyzel Sep 01, 2010

Blogs

Crisis Prevention 101: Financial Education of Czech Adults

New Europe, Wall Street Journal  Sean Carney Sep 01, 2010

Analysis

Knowledge-based entreprenuership in Poland

Center for Social and Economic Research  Richard Woodward, Patryk Koc, Wojciech Pander and Deniz Eylem Yoruk Aug 31, 2010

Analysis

Czech Republic: Basic indicators of the financial market sectors

Czech National Bank  Aug 31, 2010

News

Poland mulling levying tax on banks – PM

Reuters  Aug 31, 2010

News

Gov't aims to keep biggest Hungarian-owned companies in Hungarian hands

Budapest Business Journal  Aug 31, 2010

Analysis

Czech Republic: A hawkish CNB might be wrong

Danske Bank  Lars Christensen Aug 31, 2010

News

Czech Central Bank `Hawks' Threaten to Derail Recovery, Danske Bank Says

Bloomberg  Krystof Chamonikolas Aug 31, 2010

Blogs

Poland’s Image Changes Slowly Despite Decades of Growth

Wall Street Journal  Marcin Sobczyk Aug 31, 2010

News

Czech banks still resilient to risks

Prague Daily Monitor  Aug 31, 2010

Blogs

Europe's next crisis? Banks and foreign currency denominated loans in Central Europe

The Call, Eurasia Group  Preston Keat Aug 31, 2010

Analysis

Economic Outlook - September 2010

Nordea  Helge J. Pedersen et al Aug 30, 2010

Analysis

Nordic Outlook - Nordic countries well equipped for upturn

SEB  Robert Bergquist et al Aug 31, 2010

Blogs

Hungarians Lose Passion for the European Union

New Europe, Wall Street Journal  Margit Feher Aug 31, 2010

Analysis

Czech Republic: Financial market inflation expectations August 2010

Czech National Bank  Aug 30, 2010

News

Gross domestic product in the 2nd quarter of 2010-Preliminary estimate

Polish Central Statistical Office  Aug 30, 2010

News

Poland's GDP figures beat expectations

Warsaw Business Journal  Aug 30, 2010

Analysis

EMEA Weekly: US worries could become EMEA worries

Danske Bank  Aug 30, 2010

Analysis

Czech banking sector stress test results (August 2010)

Czech National Bank  Aug 30, 2010

News

Polish Economy Grew Faster in Second Quarter as Restocking Boosts Recovery

Bloomberg  Monika Rozlal and Dorota Bartyzel Aug 30, 2010

News

Hungary `Can't Afford' to Delay Deficit Cuts, EU's Rehn Says

Bloomberg  Zoltan Simon Aug 29, 2010

News

Polish Economy Grew Faster in 2nd Quarter on German Expansion

Bloomberg  Monika Rozlal and Dorota Bartyzel Aug 30, 2010

News

Hungary ‘Can’t Afford’ to Loosen Budget, Rehn Says

Bloomberg  Zoltan Simon Aug 30, 2010

Blogs

Polish Economy Accelerates, Growth to Continue

New Europe, Wall Street Journal  Marcin Sobczyk Aug 30, 2010

Analysis

Poland: Recovery continues

Danske Bank  Lars Christensen Aug 30, 2010

Analysis

Poland: Gross domestic product in the 2nd quarter of 2010, Preliminary Estimate

Poland Central Statistical Office  Aug 30, 2010

Analysis

Hungary: Current Situation and Outlook of the Real Estate Market

GKI Economic Research Co  Aug 27, 2010

Analysis

Poland Weekly Review: MPC will wait for longer

BRE Bank  Aug 27, 2010

News

Hungary: Employment and Unemployment May- July 2010

Hungarian Statistical Office  Aug 27, 2010

News

Hungary jobless rate drops to 11.0% in May-July

Budapest Business Journal  Aug 27, 2010

Analysis

EMEA Bi-Weekly: The World Beyond

Commerzbank  Aug 27, 2010

Analysis

Standard Eurobarometer 73

EU Commission  Aug 27, 2010

News

Czechs Could ‘Easily’ Issue 3 Billion Euros of Debt, RZB Says

Bloomberg  Krystof Chamonikolas Aug 27, 2010

News

Slovakia Aims to Emulate Singapore in Red Tape Battle

Bloomberg  Radoslav Tomek Aug 27, 2010

Blogs

Czech Police, Firefighters Threaten Demonstrations against Pay Cuts

New Europe, Wall Street Journal  Sean Carney Aug 26, 2010

News

Hungarian c'bank expects slow growth

Portfolio.hu  Aug 25, 2010

News

Hungary: Government talks with IMF and EU to resume this fall

Budapest Business Journal  Aug 25, 2010

News

Slovakia: Labour minister unveils payroll tax overhaul

The Slovak Spectator  Aug 25, 2010

News

Polish president to make first visit to EU allies

EU Business  Aug 25, 2010

Analysis

CEE Financial Market Report: Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe Recover

ZEW (Centre for European Economic Research) and Erste Bank  Aug 25, 2010

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