Roubini Global Economics

Key Indicators

National Accounts
Real Gross Domestic Product - Y/Y % Change
(%, NSA)

7.9,8.9,10.7,11.9,11.1 11.1

China Foreign Trade
Trade Balance of Goods
(Mil. USD, NSA)

7612.2,-7235.99,1680,19530,20021.85 20,021.85

Consumer Price Index
Total
(Y/Y % Change, NSA)

2.7,2.4,2.8,3.1,2.9 2.9

Retail Sales
Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods - YoY growth
(Percent, NSA)

17.9,18,18.5,18.7,18.3 18.3

Urban Fixed Asset Investment
Total
(Y/Y % Change, Year to Date, NSA)

26.6,26.4,26.1,25.9,25.5 25.5

Industrial production
Year on year growth - Total
(%,NSA)

12.8,18.1,17.8,16.5,13.7 13.7

data by Moody's

RGE's Q3 2010 China Outlook

RGE slightly lowered its forecast for 2010 to 10% growth and raised its estimate for 2011 to 8.3%, partially due to a revision of the 2009 growth rate to 9.1%. Consumer inflation has been rather modest so far in 2010, and we previously lowered our forecast to an average 3.2% for the year, but we maintain the view that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is behind the curve on monetary tightening. Consumption (including government purchases) and investment will each contribute about half of China’s growth in 2010, with net exports providing a minor drag. On a quarterly basis, China’s growth will decelerate from 11.9% y/y in Q1 to about 9% y/y in Q4 2010. The sluggish recovery in advanced economies will keep global demand for Chinese products weak, and Chinese consumers are not yet able to offset the global consumption gap.

Read the Q3 2010 China Outlook.

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Featured Analysis

Deepwater Doesn’t Mean a Double Dip

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