Roubini Global Economics

Key Indicators

National Accounts
Real Gross Domestic Product - Y/Y % Change
(%, NSA)

6.8,6.1,7.9,8.9,10.7 10.7

China Foreign Trade
Trade Balance of Goods
(Mil. USD, NSA)

15700,12932,23980,19093,18430 18,430

Consumer Price Index
Total
(Y/Y % Change, NSA)

-1.2,-0.8,-0.5,0.6,1.9 1.9

Retail Sales
Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods - YoY growth
(Percent, NSA)

15.4,15.5,16.2,15.8,17.5 17.5

Urban Fixed Asset Investment
Total
(Y/Y % Change, Year to Date, NSA)

33,33.3,33.1,32.1,30.5 30.5

Industrial production
Year on year growth - Total
(%,NSA)

12.3,13.9,16.1,19.2,18.5 18.5

data by Moody's

RGE's Q1 2010 China Outlook

Aggressive fiscal stimulus and an ultra-loose monetary policy helped to boost China’s, and Asia’s, growth in 2009, but as RGE has noted in past outlooks, these policies bring significant risks for 2010. Industrial production, electricity demand, exports and other key economic data show that China has bounced back strongly from the trough of Q1 2009, but this was largely due to government-linked investment and monetary stimulus that seems to be feeding asset bubbles. As Chinese policymakers have repeatedly warned, China’s economy remains unbalanced; it will have to become less reliant on investment in 2010 if it is to continue growing at its recent rate. Consumption’s share of GDP is expected to rise slightly in 2010, but this mostly reflects a further shrinking of net exports’ share, not an acceleration of private consumption. The transition to a more domestic-driven growth trajectory will be a long-term project for China. Still, RGE has raised its growth forecast for China to 9.5% in 2010 on the basis of stronger than expected external demand, improving consumer sentiment and an official revision of previous GDP estimates.

Read the Q1 2010 China Outlook.

EconoMonitors

Emerging Markets Monitor

I have to Side with China on this One

Rebecca Wilder Feb 8, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

A Glimpse Inside the CIC’s Portfolio

Rachel Ziemba Feb 7, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

Chanos: “We’re Not Calling for an Impending Crash of China”

Edward Harrison Feb 4, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

Never Short a Country with $2Trillion in Reserves?

Michael Pettis Feb 3, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Despite Strong GDP Growth Energy Prices Sink Lower

Darrell Delamaide Feb 1, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Bremmer-Roubini 2010 Global Forecast

Nouriel Roubini Jan 28, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Could the Next Credit Crisis Start in Shanghai?

Adam Wolfe Jan 28, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

The Myth of China's Blithe Consensus

Michael Pettis Jan 26, 2010

Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor

Does Russia Belong in the BRICs?

Anders Aslund Jan 25, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Botox Cures – Part 1

Satyajit Das Jan 25, 2010

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

Roubini Bloomberg Video and Report from the Asian Financial Forum in Hong Kong

Nouriel Roubini Jan 22, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

Good Numbers? Or Bad Numbers?

Michael Pettis Jan 21, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

Manipulation or Recovery

China Economist Jan 20, 2010

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

The Risky Rich

Nouriel Roubini Jan 18, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

China’s Reserves: The Challenges of US$2.4 Trillion

Rachel Ziemba Jan 15, 2010

US EconoMonitor

It's Not about Interest Rates Yet

Tim Duy Jan 15, 2010

Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor

A Growing US-China Rift

Nicholas R. Lardy and Steve Weisman Jan 14, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Risk of a Chinese Bust?

Rachel Ziemba Jan 14, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

In Praise of Roads

Walter Molano Jan 14, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Nigeria’s Presidency: Fallout Scenarios from Yar’Adua Health Scare?

Lee Hudson Teslik Jan 13, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

China's Trade Balance Points to Inflation

Rebecca Wilder Jan 11, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

East vs. West

Walter Molano Jan 11, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

Everyone Wants to Talk about Currencies

Michael Pettis Jan 11, 2010

Asia EconoMonitor

The Chinese Bubble Economy

Edward Harrison Jan 11, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

Two BRICs: India vs. Brazil

Rebecca Wilder Jan 10, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

The Myth of Nabucco: Greed, Delusion, and Geopolitics

John Daly Jan 7, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Could Capital Inflows to EM be Slowing?

Rachel Ziemba and Christian Menegatti Jan 5, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

A Decade to Tip the World to the East

David Smith Jan 5, 2010

US EconoMonitor

Out of the Gate with a Bang

Tim Duy Jan 5, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

China and Metal - Playing the Long Game

China Economist Jan 4, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

Inflation in China

James Hamilton Jan 4, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Asia Tells the West to Get Off its High Horse

Edward Harrison Jan 4, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

China New Year, and One More Vote for GDP-Adjusted Bonds

Michael Pettis Jan 4, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Canadian Housing Worries?

Rachel Ziemba Dec 30, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Is China Going off the Rails?

China Economist Dec 29, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

The Prospects for Global Imbalances: A View from the IMF

Menzie Chinn Dec 28, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

The Pace of Change

Michael Pettis Dec 28, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

China Secures Gas Supply From Turkmenistan: Who’s the True Winner?

Philip H. de Leon Dec 23, 2009

US EconoMonitor

Gravity will Drag the $U.S.

Rebecca Wilder Dec 23, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Collateral Damage

Nouriel Roubini and Arpitha Bykere Dec 23, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

RGE's Wednesday Note - Energy Insecurity in 2010 and Beyond?

Rachel Ziemba Dec 23, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

More Evidence of Froth in China's Housing Market

Yves Smith Dec 22, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

China’s Globetrotting Xi

Adam Wolfe Dec 21, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Economy Slowly Improving but Risks Posed by Weak Employment and Tight Credit Remain

John Graham and Kate O'Sullivan Dec 18, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

China Bank Fraud Shock - Not

China Economist Dec 16, 2009

Asia EconoMonitor

Is Urban Migration the Solution to China’s Problems?

Michael Pettis Dec 15, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

The Difficult Arithmetic of Chinese Consumption

Michael Pettis Dec 7, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Savings Gluts and Bubbles

Mark Thoma Dec 4, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Parting the Bamboo Curtain Part 3 - How Long Can China Go On?

Satyajit Das Dec 3, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

What’s on the Agenda at China’s Central Economic Work Conference?

Adam Wolfe Dec 2, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Parting the Bamboo Curtain Part 2 - Rescuing the Dragon

Satyajit Das Dec 2, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Parting the Bamboo Curtain Part 1 - The Basis of China's Growth

Satyajit Das Dec 1, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Repairing China’s Financial System

Michael Pettis Nov 30, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

More on China's Faux GDP Data

Barry Ritholtz Nov 20, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Property: The Bubble that Keeps on Inflating

China Economist Nov 19, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Pictures of Pollution in China

China Economist Nov 18, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Lecturing Each Other on Trade

Michael Pettis Nov 18, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Obama Tours Asia with a Full Agenda

RGE Analyst Team Nov 18, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

China and the American Jobs Machine

Mark Thoma Nov 17, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

China Lambastes Dollar “Carry Trade,” Diverting Attention from Its Currency Manipulation

Yves Smith Nov 16, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Who’s Afraid of a Falling Dollar?

Simon Johnson Nov 16, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

What is China's Exit Strategy?

Adam Wolfe and Rachel Ziemba Nov 16, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

China Slams U.S. for Inflating Global Asset Prices Via Carry Trade

Edward Harrison Nov 15, 2009

US EconoMonitor

If the Fed is Looking to Inflate Away Problems, What Should Asia Do?

Edward Harrison Nov 11, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

The IMF on Asia's Recovery and its Sustainability

Claus Vistesen Nov 9, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Asia's Corporate Saving Mystery

Anoop Singh Nov 9, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

What Rebalancing of Chinese and American Consumption?

Michael Pettis Nov 5, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Chinese Railways and Speculating Pig Farmers

Michael Pettis Oct 26, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

The Dragon in the Alphabet Soup

Rumi Malott Morales Oct 26, 2009

Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor

A US-China Trade Blowout Over Tires

Nicholas R. Lardy and Steve Weisman Oct 22, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Who Believes China’s ‘Bernie Madoff’ Data?

Barry Ritholtz Oct 22, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Chinese Monetary Policy: Little Effect on Overcapacities, and Risks of Blowing a Property Bubble

Adam Wolfe and Rachel Ziemba Oct 21, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

China’s September Data Suggest that the Long-Term Overcapacity Problem is only Intensifying

Michael Pettis Oct 21, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Cognitive Dissonance and Global Macroeconomics

James Kwak Oct 19, 2009

Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor

The United States–China Economic Relationship and the Strategic and Economic Dialogue

C. Fred Bergsten Oct 16, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

US Angling to get Chinese to Revalue Renminbi

Edward Harrison Oct 16, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Currency Depreciation and Global Imbalances

Michael Pettis Oct 12, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

CNBC Squawk Box Interviews with RGE's Rachel Ziemba, Jim Rogers and others Discussing China at 60

Rachel Ziemba Oct 7, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Overcapacity to be Curbed

China Economist Oct 6, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

The IMF Warns about Surplus Countries and Global Imbalances

Michael Pettis Oct 6, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

More Trade Tensions, and the Very Limited Advantage of Relative Poverty

Michael Pettis Oct 1, 2009

Asia EconoMonitor

The People’s Republic Turns 60: A New Era for China?

Adam Wolfe Sep 30, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

How Should China Finance the Growth of its Housing Market?: Europe’s Experience with Covered Bonds

Alicia Garcia Herrero Sep 29, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Chinese Credit Policy: Is Fine-Tuning Prompting Too Much of a Property Boom?

Adam Wolfe and Rachel Ziemba Sep 29, 2009

Asia EconoMonitor

SEAsia: Turning a Corner or Turning Away?

Rumi Malott Morales Sep 24, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

The Coming Clash in Savings

Michael Pettis Sep 22, 2009

US EconoMonitor

On the G20 Agenda

Tim Duy Sep 22, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

The July TIC Data: In for the Long Term?

Rachel Ziemba Sep 16, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

China’s Retail Sales Growth Figures are not Consumption Growth Figures

Michael Pettis Sep 16, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

China’s August Data Confirms both Optimists and Pessimists

Michael Pettis Sep 16, 2009

US EconoMonitor

Tariffs: Other Industries May Line Up for Sanctions Against China

Edward Harrison Sep 15, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

What do Istithmar’s Troubles Signal for other Sovereign Investors?

Rachel Ziemba Sep 14, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Will China Control the World’s Rare Metals?

Monika Brown Sep 14, 2009

Finance & Markets Monitor

Goldman Sachs vs. Chinese Banks

Ann Lee Sep 11, 2009

Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor

America Cannot Resolve Global Imbalances on Its Own

C. Fred Bergsten and Arvind Subramanian Sep 9, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

How China Cooks its Books

Yves Smith Sep 8, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

The Shanghai Market Calls the Tune

Michael Pettis Sep 8, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Gold Passes $1,000

Barry Ritholtz Sep 8, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

China to Diversify out of U.S. Dollars

Edward Harrison Sep 6, 2009

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

CNBC Fast Money Roubini Interview

Nouriel Roubini Sep 2, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Shanghai Cracks

Prieur du Plessis Sep 1, 2009

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

Ian Bremmer and Nouriel Roubini: Don’t Expect the U.S. and China to Form a ‘Strategic Alliance’ Anytime Soon - WSJ.com

Nouriel Roubini Sep 1, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

It’s Not Yet the End of China’s Massive Stimulus

Michael Pettis Aug 31, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

The Credibility of Farmers, Priests and Prostitutes – and Bankers?

Michael Pettis Aug 27, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

China Cutting Overcapacity

Edward Harrison Aug 27, 2009

Asia EconoMonitor

The China Effect

Rachel Ziemba Aug 26, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

China Cuts Holding of U.S. Treasury Securities

Edward Harrison Aug 19, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

A Revolution is Not a Dinner Party. Thoughts about the Future of China

Fabius Maximus Aug 19, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Beijing Car Sales Tick to 1,200/Day

Paul Kedrosky Aug 17, 2009

US EconoMonitor

Leading Indicators: Key Economies and the BRICs

Menzie Chinn Aug 17, 2009

US EconoMonitor

Weak Consumer Spending Will Last for Years

Edward Harrison Aug 17, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

China Rising, Rent-Seeking Version

Simon Johnson Aug 12, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

What Should have been Discussed During the SED Meetings (Part 2)

Michael Pettis Aug 12, 2009

Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor

China’s Undervalued Currency

Nicholas R. Lardy and Steve Weisman Aug 11, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

What Should Have Been Discussed During the SED Meetings (Part 1)

Michael Pettis Aug 10, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Will China Collapse?

Fabius Maximus Aug 7, 2009

Daily Digest

RGE GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Featured Analysis

Sovereign Debt: The Developed World’s Next Big Problem?

“If countries maintain loose fiscal and monetary policies to support growth, rather than focusing on fiscal consolidation, investors will become increasingly concerned about fiscal sustainability.”

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