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Eurozone
Featured Content
EU and EMU Institutional Framework
€500 Billion European Stabilization Mechanism (ESM) Signed: Ratification by Mid-2012
Eurozone: Economic Profile
EZ Services Activity Expands in January, Manufacturing Remains in the Contractionary Zone
The ECB and the Eurosystem
ECB Bank Lending Survey: Is the Wall of Liquidity Reaching the Real Economy?
RGE Analysis
Spain Will Be Forced to Restructure Its Debt; New Government Is No Game Changer
Nov 23, 2011
Macroeconomy
The ECB and the Eurosystem
ECB Bank Lending Survey: Is the Wall of Liquidity Reaching the Real Economy?
Is the ECB Preparing for QE?
Eurozone : Europe : Macroeconomy : Fiscal Policy : Monetary Policy and Inflation :
Finland: Economic Profile
Finnish Economy Expands by 0.9% q/q in Q3
Eurozone : Nordics : Advanced Economies : Europe : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :
Greece: Domestic Demand
Greek Q3 Unemployment Rate Rises to 17.7%
Eurozone : Greece : Europe : Macroeconomy : Labor Markets and Productivity :
Spain: Domestic Demand
Spain: Unemployment Rate Reaches 21.5% in Q3 2011, Rises Further in December
Eurozone : Spain : Europe : Macroeconomy : Labor Markets and Productivity :
Greece: Price Dynamics
Greek Inflation Falls to 2.2% y/y in December
Eurozone : Greece : Europe : Macroeconomy : Monetary Policy and Inflation :
Spain: Price Dynamics
Spanish Inflation to Slow to 2.4% y/y in December
Eurozone : Spain : Europe : Macroeconomy : Monetary Policy and Inflation :
Belgium: Economic Profile
Belgian Economy Contracts by 0.2% q/q in Q4 2011
Belgium Agrees Further Spending Cuts Under EU Pressure
Belgium : Eurozone : Europe : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :
Germany: Economic Profile
German Services Activity Continues to Expand in January
German Economy Grows by 3% y/y in 2011
Eurozone : Germany : Europe : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :
Ireland: Fiscal Policy
IMF Approves Additional Loan Disbursement of €1.5 Billion
Ireland: Leading Think Tank Calls for Faster Deficit Reduction
Eurozone : Ireland : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Fiscal Policy : Foreign and Domestic Political Risk : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle : Monetary Policy and Inflation : Real Estate :
Eastern Europe: External Accounts
Eastern Europe: Will High Current Account Deficits Return?
Capital Inflows to Emerging Europe: Returning, Albeit Unevenly
Baltics : Commonwealth of Independent States : Czech Republic : Emerging Europe and CIS : Eurozone : Hungary : Poland : Romania : Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Southeast Europe : Europe : Macroeconomy : Capital Flows, FDIs, Capital Controls : Current Account : Trade and External Balance :
Eastern Europe: Public Finances
Growth Dynamics and Political Pressures Test Effectiveness of Fiscal Consolidation Measures
Czech Fiscal Policy: Parliament Passes 2012 Budget
Baltics : Czech Republic : Emerging Europe and CIS : Eurozone : Hungary : Poland : Romania : Southeast Europe : Europe : Macroeconomy : Fiscal Policy :
Central and Eastern European Demographics
Central and Eastern European Demographics: Impact Of Greying And Emigration
Baltics : Czech Republic : Emerging Europe and CIS : Eurozone : Hungary : Poland : Romania : Southeast Europe : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Demographics : Labor Markets and Productivity :
Eurozone: Economic Profile
EZ Services Activity Expands in January, Manufacturing Remains in the Contractionary Zone
IMF Article IV Review of Euro Area Policies: Focus on EMU Stabilization and Contagion Prevention
Eurozone : Europe : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :
EU Banking System
Bank of England Expected to Announce More QE on February 9
Exchange-Traded Funds: UBS Scandal Turns Spotlight on the Risks of ETFs
Eurozone : France : Advanced Economies : Europe : Finance and Banking : Macroeconomy : Banks : Systemic Risk, Vulnerabilities and Asset Bubbles :
Slovakia: Economic Profile
Slovakia Macro View: GDP Growth Moderates in Q2
Emerging Europe and CIS : Eurozone : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :
Lithuania: Economic Profile
Lithuania: Q3 2011 GDP Up 6.6% y/y
Baltics : Eurozone : Europe : Frontier Markets : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :
Latvia: Economic Profile
Latvia: Q2 GDP Growth Accelerates, Recovery Still Fragile
Latvia: IMF Program and Eurozone Target to Pressure Fiscal Consolidation
Baltics : Eurozone : Europe : Macroeconomy : Current Financial Crisis : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle : Systemic Risk, Vulnerabilities and Asset Bubbles :
Currency Pegs in the Baltic States
Baltic Banking Systems: Will Regulatory Changes Impede Future Bank Lending?
Latvian Politics: More Coalition Blues, Majority Lost as Six Members Defect
Baltics : Eurozone : Europe : Frontier Markets : Macroeconomy : Markets : Currencies :
Estonia: Economic Profile
Estonia: Economy Expands 7.9% y/y in Q3 2011
On the Back of Euro Adoption, Estonia Re-elects Coalition Government
Baltics : Eurozone : Emerging Markets : Europe : Frontier Markets : Macroeconomy : Current Financial Crisis : Systemic Risk, Vulnerabilities and Asset Bubbles :
Portugal: Economic Profile
Portugal's Downgrade to Junk: Following in Greece's Footsteps?
Portugal: Uncertainty Prevails Over Ability to Repay Debt
Eurozone : Portugal : Europe : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :
Greece: Economic Profile
Greek Economy Contracts by 5.2% y/y in Q3
Greece: Bailout Deal by March or Exit?
Eurozone : Greece : Europe : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :
IMF's Role in Central and Eastern Europe
Romania: Prime Minister Boc Steps Down After Country-Wide Protests
IMF's Expansive Role in Emerging Europe: A New, More Lenient Organization?
Baltics : Czech Republic : Emerging Europe and CIS : Eurozone : Hungary : Poland : Romania : Serbia : Southeast Europe : Europe : Macroeconomy : Current Financial Crisis : IMF and International Economic Institutions : Systemic Risk, Vulnerabilities and Asset Bubbles :
Euro Adoption Path for EU Newcomers
EU Newcomers' Euro Adoption: Delays Expected Due to Eurozone Debt Crisis
On the Back of Euro Adoption, Estonia Re-elects Coalition Government
Baltics : Czech Republic : Emerging Europe and CIS : Eurozone : Hungary : Poland : Romania : Southeast Europe : Europe : Frontier Markets : Macroeconomy :
Greece: Fiscal Policy and Public Finances
Greek Government Announces New Austerity Measures
EU and IMF October Reviews of Greek Program: IMF Pushes for Greater Structural Reforms
Eurozone : Greece : Europe : Finance and Banking : Macroeconomy : Fiscal Policy :
Spain: Economic Profile
Spain: Contraction in Services Activity Moderates in January
Moody’s Downgrades Spain’s Sovereign Debt Rating by Two Notches
Eurozone : Spain : Europe : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :
Slovenia: Economic Profile
Slovenia Economic Outlook: Q2 GDP Contracts 9.3% Y/Y, Recovery Hinges on Upturn in Trading Partners
Eurozone : Europe : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :
Italy: Economic Profile
Italy: Services PMI Shows Marginal Improvement in January
Eurozone : Italy : Europe : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :
Austria: Inflation
Upward Trend in Austria's Inflation Halts in February 2010
Eurozone : Europe : Macroeconomy : Monetary Policy and Inflation :
Germany: Price Dynamics (Inflation/Deflation)
German Inflation Falls to 2% y/y in January
Eurozone : Germany : Europe : Macroeconomy : Monetary Policy and Inflation :
France: Household Consumption
French Consumer Confidence Improves Marginally in January
Eurozone : France : Europe : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :
Eurozone: Monetary Policy
Eurozone Loans to NFC Contracting at a Slower Rate
ECB Statements: What Is the ECB Thinking?
Eurozone : Europe : Macroeconomy : Monetary Policy and Inflation :
Ireland: Economic Profile
Ireland: Q3 GDP Falls by 1.9% q/q, Largest Drop Since Q1 2009
Ireland Downgraded by Moody's to Speculative Grade Based on Need for Bail-In
Eurozone : Ireland : Europe : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :
France: Price Dynamics (Inflation/Deflation)
French Inflation Remains Unchanged at 2.7% y/y in December
Eurozone : France : Europe : Macroeconomy : Monetary Policy and Inflation :
Russia: Consumption
Russia: Household Consumption Picks up in December, Outlook?
Russian Demographics and Labor Productivity: 'Hypermortality' Weighing on Growth?
Eurozone : Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle : Trade and External Balance :
Germany: Export Sector
German Exports Increase by 11.4% y/y in 2011
Eurozone : Germany : Europe : Macroeconomy : International Trade and Globalization : Sectors and Industries :
Portugal: Fiscal Policy and Public Finances
Portugal: Uncertainty Prevails Over Ability to Repay Debt
Eurozone : Portugal : Europe : Macroeconomy : Fiscal Policy :
France: Labor Market
French Unemployment Rate Rises to 9.3% in Q3
Eurozone : France : Europe : Macroeconomy : Labor Markets and Productivity :
Germany: Labor Market
German Unemployment Rate Falls to 6.8% in December
Eurozone : Germany : Europe : Macroeconomy : Labor Markets and Productivity :
Systemic Effects of Exit Strategies
Bank of England Expected to Announce More QE on February 9
Jackson Hole: Hints About the Future of Monetary Policy
Eurozone : United Kingdom : United States : Advanced Economies : Europe : North America : Finance and Banking : Macroeconomy : Current Financial Crisis : Financial Regulation : Systemic Risk, Vulnerabilities and Asset Bubbles :
France: Fiscal Policy
S&P Downgrades France by One Notch to AA+
Eurozone : France : Europe : Macroeconomy : Fiscal Policy :
Eurozone Cohesion
Adjustment in the EMU: Converging and Diverging Forces
What Are the Chances of an EMU Breakup?
Eurozone : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy :
Italy: Fiscal Position
S&P Downgrades Italy by Two Notches to BBB+
Eurozone : Italy : Europe : Macroeconomy : Fiscal Policy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :
Spain: Fiscal Policy
Spain's Short Term Borrowing Cost Declines Unexpectedly
Spain Announces €50 Billion Plan for Banking Sector Reform
Eurozone : Spain : Europe : Macroeconomy : Fiscal Policy :
Italy: Labor Market
Italian Unemployment Rate Rises to 8.9% in December
Eurozone : Italy : Europe : Macroeconomy : Labor Markets and Productivity :
Ireland: Inflation
Ireland's Inflation Unchanged at 1.7% y/y in November
Eurozone : Ireland : Europe : Macroeconomy : Monetary Policy and Inflation :
The Netherlands: Economic Profile
The Netherlands Gets a Minority Right-Wing Government
Dutch Economy Grows by 0.2% q/q in Q1 2010
Belgium : Eurozone : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :
Germany: Household Consumption
German Consumer Indicators Improve in December
Eurozone : Germany : Europe : Macroeconomy :
France: Economic Profile
French Services Activity Expands in January
Eurozone : France : Europe : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :
The Netherlands: Price Dynamics (Inflation/Deflation)
Has Dutch Inflation Reached its Trough?
Belgium : Eurozone : Europe : Macroeconomy :
Financial Integration in the Eurozone
Financial Integration and Current Account Imbalances: What Are the Links?
Eurozone : Europe : Macroeconomy :
Eurozone: Price Dynamics (Inflation/Deflation)
Eurozone Core Inflation Rises Back to Its June Level of 1.6% y/y
Is the ECB Right About Tracking the Money Supply?
Eurozone : Europe : Macroeconomy : Monetary Policy and Inflation :
Italy: Price Dynamics (Inflation/Deflation)
Italy: HICP Falls to 2.1% y/y in July
Eurozone : Italy : Europe : Macroeconomy :
Liquidity Traps
The Liquidity Trap Revisited: What Evidence?
Eurozone : United Kingdom : Advanced Economies : Europe : Latin America : North America : Macroeconomy : Current Financial Crisis : Systemic Risk, Vulnerabilities and Asset Bubbles :
Austria: Economic Profile
Austrian Economy Remains Stagnant in Q1 2010
How Sustainable Is Austria's Economic Recovery?
Eurozone : Europe : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :
Austria: Labor Market
Austria: How High will Unemployment rise?
Eurozone : Europe : Macroeconomy : Labor Markets and Productivity :
Austrian Fiscal Policy
What is the Outlook for Austria's Budgetary and Financial Position?
Eurozone : Europe : Macroeconomy : Fiscal Policy :
Germany: Fiscal Policy
Germany Set to Meet Deficit Reduction Target Ahead of Schedule in 2011 as Tax Revenues Beat Expectations
Eurozone : Germany : Europe : Macroeconomy : Fiscal Policy :
Markets
Currency Pegs in the Baltic States
Baltic Banking Systems: Will Regulatory Changes Impede Future Bank Lending?
Latvian Politics: More Coalition Blues, Majority Lost as Six Members Defect
Baltics : Eurozone : Europe : Frontier Markets : Macroeconomy : Markets : Currencies :
Sovereign Risk in the Eurozone
EU Summit: Leaders Agree to Sign the New Fiscal Compact Treaty
Spain's Short Term Borrowing Cost Declines Unexpectedly
Eurozone : Greece : Ireland : Italy : Spain : Europe : Markets : Fiscal Policy : Government Bonds : Government Bonds/Interest Rates :
Eurozone: The Euro
What Are the Chances of an EMU Breakup?
ECB Securities Markets Program: Push for Permanent Fiscal Solution via EFSF
Eurozone : Europe : North America : Markets : Currencies :
Eastern Europe: Bond Markets
Romania's Bond Market: The Government Drops the 7% Yield Cap
Czech Republic : Emerging Europe and CIS : Eurozone : Hungary : Poland : Romania : Southeast Europe : Europe : Markets : Government Bonds : Government Bonds/Interest Rates :
Finance & Banking
Spain: Banking Sector
Spain Announces €50 Billion Plan for Banking Sector Reform
Eurozone : Spain : Europe : Finance and Banking :
EU Banking System
Bank of England Expected to Announce More QE on February 9
Exchange-Traded Funds: UBS Scandal Turns Spotlight on the Risks of ETFs
Eurozone : France : Advanced Economies : Europe : Finance and Banking : Macroeconomy : Banks : Systemic Risk, Vulnerabilities and Asset Bubbles :
Credit Rating Agencies
Credit Rating Agencies:Banks Warn About Move to Remove Ratings
Eurozone : United States : Europe : North America : Finance and Banking : Banks : Capital Market Intermediaries : Financial Regulation :
Greece: Fiscal Policy and Public Finances
Greek Government Announces New Austerity Measures
EU and IMF October Reviews of Greek Program: IMF Pushes for Greater Structural Reforms
Eurozone : Greece : Europe : Finance and Banking : Macroeconomy : Fiscal Policy :
Credit Market Conditions in the Eurozone
Eurozone Loans to NFC Contracting at a Slower Rate
Has the Global Corporate Default Rate Peaked?
Greece: Banking Sector
Greece Taps Rescue Fund to Nationalize Proton Bank
Major Central Banks Cut Dollar Swap Rates to Ease EZ Funding Stress
Eurozone : Greece : Europe : Finance and Banking : Banks :
Ireland: Banking Sector
Stress Tests Reveal €24 Billion Shortfall in Irish Banks
Anglo Irish, Irish Nationwide Building Society Behind €16 Billion Spike in ECB Emergency Funding
Eurozone : Ireland : Europe : Finance and Banking : Banks :
Systemic Effects of Exit Strategies
Bank of England Expected to Announce More QE on February 9
Jackson Hole: Hints About the Future of Monetary Policy
Eurozone : United Kingdom : United States : Advanced Economies : Europe : North America : Finance and Banking : Macroeconomy : Current Financial Crisis : Financial Regulation : Systemic Risk, Vulnerabilities and Asset Bubbles :
Geostrategy
Political Risk in the Baltics
Latvian Politics: More Coalition Blues, Majority Lost as Six Members Defect
Lithuania: Fiscal Consolidation Continues
Baltics : Eurozone : Europe : Frontier Markets : Geostrategy : Foreign and Domestic Political Risk :
Ireland: Domestic Politics
Ireland's Interest Rate On Bailout Loans Reduced to 3.5%
What Are the Effects of Ireland’s Harsh Spending Cuts?
Eurozone : Ireland : Europe : Geostrategy : Foreign and Domestic Political Risk :
Russia and the U.S.
U.S.-Russia Ties: A New START
U.S. Scales Down Missile Shield in Eastern Europe
Baltics : Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Eurozone : Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : United States : Europe : North America : Geostrategy : Defense Policy and Terrorism : Foreign Policy and Geostrategic Risks : Nuclear Proliferation :
Ireland: Fiscal Policy
IMF Approves Additional Loan Disbursement of €1.5 Billion
Ireland: Leading Think Tank Calls for Faster Deficit Reduction
Eurozone : Ireland : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Fiscal Policy : Foreign and Domestic Political Risk : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle : Monetary Policy and Inflation : Real Estate :
Portugal: Domestic Politics
Portugal's Center-Right Sweeps to Power After June 5 Election
Eurozone : Portugal : Europe : Geostrategy : Foreign and Domestic Political Risk :
Greece: Domestic Politics
Greece: Bailout Deal by March or Exit?
Economic Woes Build on Election Speculation in Greece
Eurozone : Greece : Europe : Geostrategy : Foreign and Domestic Political Risk :
NATO's Future Role
NATO in Afghanistan: Obama Unwinds Troop Increase
U.S.-Afghan Relations: Tensions Mount
Baltics : Belgium : Emerging Europe and CIS : Eurozone : Nordics : Norway : Romania : Southeast Europe : Turkey : Europe : Geostrategy : Foreign Policy and Geostrategic Risks : International Organizations :
Europe's Neutrals
What Are the Effects of Ireland’s Harsh Spending Cuts?
Switzerland: January PMI Reveals Further Contraction in the Manufacturing Sector
Eurozone : Nordics : Sweden : Europe : Geostrategy : Foreign Policy and Geostrategic Risks :
Central and Eastern European Demographics
Central and Eastern European Demographics: Impact Of Greying And Emigration
Baltics : Czech Republic : Emerging Europe and CIS : Eurozone : Hungary : Poland : Romania : Southeast Europe : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Demographics : Labor Markets and Productivity :
Reform of the European Union
Hungary's EU Presidency Marred by International Criticism
Belgium Takes the EU Helm on July 1: Financial Oversight Dominates Policy Challenges
Czech Republic : Emerging Europe and CIS : Eurozone : Poland : Europe : Geostrategy : Foreign and Domestic Political Risk : Foreign Policy and Geostrategic Risks : International Organizations :
Italy: Domestic Politics
Mario Monti's New Technocratic Italian Government Takes Power
Eurozone : Italy : Europe : Geostrategy : Foreign and Domestic Political Risk :
Slovakia: Economic Profile
Slovakia Macro View: GDP Growth Moderates in Q2
Emerging Europe and CIS : Eurozone : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :
France: Domestic Politics
French Politics: Hollande to be Socialist Party's Presidential Candidate in 2012
Eurozone : France : Europe : Geostrategy : Foreign and Domestic Political Risk :
Spain: Domestic Politics
Spain Elects New Center-Right Government
Basque ETA Declares 'Permanent' Cease-Fire, Spain Wants 'Definitive End'
Eurozone : Spain : Europe : Geostrategy : Foreign and Domestic Political Risk :
Belgium: Domestic Politics
Belgium: Political Parties Form New Coalition Government
Belgium : Eurozone : Europe : Geostrategy :
Political Risk in Northern Ireland
Has Peace Become Permanent in Northern Ireland?
Eurozone : Ireland : United Kingdom : Europe : Geostrategy : Defense Policy and Terrorism : Foreign and Domestic Political Risk :
Germany: Domestic Politics
Germany: Huge Electoral Setback for Chancellor Merkel
Germany: Regional Elections Curb Merkel's Power
Eurozone : Germany : Europe : Geostrategy : Foreign and Domestic Political Risk :
Political Risk in Eastern Europe
Poland's Civic Platform Re-Elected: Will Victory Aid Fiscal Consolidation?
Czech Republic Politics: Government Avoids Collapse
Baltics : Commonwealth of Independent States : Czech Republic : Emerging Europe and CIS : Eurozone : Hungary : Poland : Romania : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Southeast Europe : Emerging Markets : Europe : Frontier Markets : Geostrategy : Foreign and Domestic Political Risk :
Russia: Consumption
Russia: Household Consumption Picks up in December, Outlook?
Russian Demographics and Labor Productivity: 'Hypermortality' Weighing on Growth?
Eurozone : Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle : Trade and External Balance :
Eastern European Energy Security
Russia Launches Nord Stream Pipeline: European Clients to Receive Gas by November
Energy Security in Poland: Government Agrees on New Deal for Russian Gas Deliveries
Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Eurozone : Nordics : Poland : Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Serbia : Southeast Europe : Europe : Geostrategy : Commodities : Energy : Energy Security and Policy : Foreign Policy and Geostrategic Risks : Natural Gas : Oil and Energy :
Eurozone Cohesion
Adjustment in the EMU: Converging and Diverging Forces
What Are the Chances of an EMU Breakup?
Eurozone : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy :
EU Climate Change Policy
What’s Brewing in EU Climate Policy After Copenhagen?
EU Solar Energy: Can Southern Europe Come to the Rescue?
Eurozone : Europe : Geostrategy : Climate Change and Clean Energy : Climate Change and Natural Resources : Energy Security and Policy :
Russia and the EU
U.S.-Russia Ties: A New START
U.S. Scales Down Missile Shield in Eastern Europe
Baltics : Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Eurozone : Nordics : Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Geostrategy : Energy Security and Policy : Foreign Policy and Geostrategic Risks :
Eurozone Outlook: Recession Hits
We expect eurozone (EZ) GDP to expand by 1.4% in 2011 before contracting by 0.8% in 2012 and a further 1.8% in 2013. These figures include a Greek default and orderly EZ exit by the end of 2012 and an orderly debt restructuring in Italy by the end of 2013. Domestic demand will exert a significant drag on economic performance over the next two years as governments implement austerity programs, consumer and business confidence plummet, unemployment rises further and a credit crunch occurs. The immediate crisis response is likely to see the ECB step in as a lender of last resort (LOLR), EZ leaders cobble together a “Big Bazooka II” or EZ leaders rely solely on small steps toward fiscal union. Whatever policy option is chosen, the chances are very low that a debt restructuring and eventual EZ exit for Italy and Spain can be avoided over the short to medium term.
Market Strategy
Market Strategy
Are CDS Worthless Because Greece's Exchange Won't Trigger a Credit Event?
By Nov 2, 2011
Market Strategy
Damned If You Do, Doomed If You Don't: Life After Greece's Mega-Exchange (If it Actually Happens)
By Sep 16, 2011
Market Strategy
Mapping the Possibilities: Using Options to Derive Probability Distributions for Traded Markets
By Sep 9, 2011
Market Strategy
Reduced Tail Risk Allows Selective Risk On, Despite Unanswered Questions and Moral Hazard
By Jul 27, 2011
Market Strategy
EM BRICS vs. EZ Mortar: Global Ramifications of a Big EM Ask—Select the IMF MD on Merit!
By May 25, 2011
Market Strategy
States of Despair Part II: Labors of Sisyphus—EZ Sovereign and U.S. State Debt Woes
By Apr 14, 2011
Market Strategy
EZ Does It! Part 2: Radiating From EZ Ground Zero to Global Asset Classes
By Nov 24, 2010
Cross Asset Monthly
The Big Picture: Necessary but Insufficient Policies for Interesting Times
By Oct 29, 2010
Market Strategy
Quantum(s) of Solace: A QE2 Scenario Analysis and Assessment of the Limits of Fed Policy
By Oct 25, 2010
Emerging Markets Quarterly
The Big Picture: East is East; South is South; West is West; North is North...Yet the Twain Seem to Meet…
By Oct 22, 2010
Market Strategy
Japanese Yen: BoJ Intervention—Short-Term Success, Long-Term Headwinds
By Sep 15, 2010
Market Strategy
Q3 2010 Scenario Analysis: Macroeconomic Factors & Asset Class Investment Implications
By Aug 2, 2010
Market Strategy
Cross Asset Monthly: A Summer of Discontent: Navigating the Tug of War Between Greed and Fear
By Jul 27, 2010
Market Strategy
Fixed Income: Relief Rallies European Bond Markets, But Now for the Hard Part
By May 10, 2010
Economic Research
Europe Weekly
ECB Meeting Preview; Italian Economic Headwinds; UK Manufacturing; Romanian Politics; EZ Calendar
By Feb 3, 2012
Europe Weekly
Greek PSI and the ECB; EZ Yield Curves; EZ PMIs; UK Double Dip; Hungarian Monetary Policy; EZ Calendar
By Jan 27, 2012
Economic Research
Conference Call Replay: EZ State of Play—Another Summit, More Skepticism
By Jan 27, 2012
Europe Weekly
Reassessing the EFSF; Hungarian Politics; Turkish Fiscal Policy; EZ Calendar
By Jan 20, 2012
Economic Research
What's on Nouriel's Mind: The Deteriorating Economic Outlook for the Eurozone
By Jan 17, 2012
Europe Weekly
German Slump; French, Finnish Elections; Eastern Europe Monetary Policy; EZ Calendar
By Jan 13, 2012
Economic Research
German CDU's European Roadmap Revisited: EMU Exit Clause in the Cards?
By Jan 9, 2012
Europe Weekly
ECB Meeting Preview; Spain’s Crucial Fiscal Consolidation; Hungary Risks; Turkish Monetary Policy; EZ Calendar
By Jan 6, 2012
Economic Research
Italy's Long-Term Bond Auction on December 29: Start-Gun For a Challenging Q1 2012
By Dec 28, 2011
Europe Weekly
EZ Pitfalls in 2012; Italian GDP; New Spanish Government; Swedish Monetary Policy; Hungarian, Polish Banks; EZ Calendar
By Dec 23, 2011
Europe Weekly
EU Summit Special: Ratification Risks; UK Veto; IMF Fire Power; EZ Calendar
By Dec 16, 2011
Europe Weekly
ECB Meeting; EZ Crisis Impact on UK; Russian Elections; Turkish Inflation; Italian Fiscal Austerity; EZ Calendar
By Dec 9, 2011
Europe Weekly
German, Global Central Bank, ECB Moves to Solve EZ Crisis; EZ Yield Curves; Hungarian Monetary Policy; Scandinavian Growth; EZ Calendar
By Dec 2, 2011
Economic Research
Macro Adjustment, the Geyser Way: Icelandic Lessons for the EZ Periphery
By Nov 25, 2011
Europe Weekly
EZ Crisis Response; Eastern Europe Banks; ECB Monetary Policy; Hungary and the IMF; Belgian Politics; EZ Calendar
By Nov 25, 2011
Economic Research
Spain Will Be Forced to Restructure Its Debt; New Government Is No Game Changer
By Nov 23, 2011
Europe Weekly
EZ GDP; Spanish Politics; Eastern Europe Growth Fears; Russian Slowdown; EZ Calendar
By Nov 18, 2011
Economic Research
Conference Call Highlights: Can the EZ Be Brought Back From the Brink?
By Nov 17, 2011
Europe Weekly
Eurozone Contagion; Italian Politics; UK Asset Purchases; Danish, Polish Monetary Policy; EZ Calendar
By Nov 11, 2011
Economic Research
Why the ECB's Monetary Policy Threatens the Eurozone, and Why It Needs a Higher Inflation Target
By Nov 9, 2011
Economic Research
Conference Call Replay: EZ Recession in 2012 and Falling Global Growth Expectations—What Are the Asset Class Implications?
By Nov 8, 2011
Europe Weekly
EZ PMIs; Greek Politics; UK Growth; Romanian Monetary Policy; Russian IP; Turkish Inflation; EZ Calendar
By Nov 4, 2011
Economic Research
Four Options to Address the Eurozone's Stock and Flow Imbalances: The Rising Risk of a Disorderly Break-Up
By Nov 1, 2011
Global Economic Outlook
Germany Outlook Update: From Supercharged Growth to Near-Stagnation
By Oct 31, 2011
Europe Weekly
EZ Summit Questions; ECB’s Next Rate Move; German Obstacles; Swedish Rate Cuts; Resilient Polish Consumption; Italian Politics; EZ Calendar
By Oct 28, 2011
Economic Research
Conference Call Replay: Eurozone in Crisis: Summit Response–What Really Can We Expect?
By Oct 27, 2011
Economic Research
Waiting for the Wednesday Summit: Progress Report on EFSF Leverage Options, Bank Recaps and Greece
By Oct 24, 2011
Economic Research
Low Inflation in EZ Core Threatens Periphery’s Efforts to Regain Competitiveness
By Oct 21, 2011
Europe Weekly
UK’s MPC Meeting; Norway’s Monetary Policy; Portugal’s Budget Plan; Hungary’s Credit Rating; Russia’s Retail Sales; EZ Calendar
By Oct 21, 2011
Economic Research
Conference Call Replay: Eurozone in Crisis—More Than a Plan to Plan Needed
By Oct 21, 2011
Economic Research
Last Shot on Goal: Will Eurozone Leaders Succeed in Ending the Crisis?
By Oct 21, 2011
Europe Weekly
Slovakia Ratifies EFSF; EZ Inflation Peaks; UK Unemployment to Rise; Poland’s Fiscal Overhaul
By Oct 14, 2011
Economic Research
The Age of Crisis: Down and Out Depression in D.C.—RGE on the IMF/WB Annual Meetings
By Sep 26, 2011
Economic Research
A Radical Policy Response to the Rising Risks of a Depression and Financial Crisis
By Sep 13, 2011
Economic Research
German Parliament to Back New EFSF Powers, But an Increase Is Unlikely and Eurobonds a Fantasy
By Sep 2, 2011
Europe Weekly
Finnish Collateral Demands, Polish Consumption, Czech Rating Upgrade, EZ PMIs, Portuguese Consumption
By Aug 26, 2011
Central Bank Watch
Summary Table: RGE Policy Rate Forecasts and Market Interbank Rate Expectations
By Aug 19, 2011
Europe Weekly
Inflation Concerns Easing in EZ, Switzerland, UK, Hungary and Czech Republic
By Aug 12, 2011
Europe Weekly
Spanish Politics; EFSF Ratification; German Soft Landing; Czech Monetary Policy; Turkish Depreciation
By Jul 29, 2011
Europe Weekly
UK Monetary Policy; Eurozone Inflation; Swedish Households; Eastern European Banks; Turkish Consumer Confidence; Polish Manufacturing
By Jul 22, 2011
Economic Research
Brady Plan 2.0: RGE Proposal for an Orderly but Coercive Greek Debt Exchange Approved by the Eurozone and Private Sector
By Jul 22, 2011
Economic Research
Second Bailout Package for Greece and Stabilization of the EMU Framework—Options and Solutions
By Jul 21, 2011
Economic Research
High Time for an Orderly and Market-Oriented but Coercive Restructuring of Greece's Debt
By Jul 13, 2011
Economic Research
Despite Serious Vulnerabilities, Italy Is Not Greece; the Show Will Probably Go On
By Jul 13, 2011
Europe Weekly
Greek Debt; Volatile Turkish Inflation; Fragile Irish Growth; Russia's Weak Fixed Investment; Poland's Shale Gas Bonanza; Denmark's Bank Woes
By Jul 8, 2011
Europe Weekly
Risks and Growth Prospects Across the EZ, UK, Nordics, Emerging Europe and CIS
By Jul 1, 2011
Europe Weekly
Turkish Credit Growth; UK Consumption; Russian Payroll Tax; Greek Crisis Impact on Romania; Finnish Growth Policy
By Jun 24, 2011
Global Economic Outlook
Spain Outlook Update: Fiscal Housekeeping Shifts to Regional Governments
By Jun 23, 2011
Global Economic Outlook
Italy Outlook Update: Political Instability Preventing Structural Reforms
By Jun 17, 2011
Europe Weekly
Greek Crisis; German Banks Exposed; Irish Bondholders; Czech Banking Risks; Turkish Wage-Price Spiral
By Jun 17, 2011
Economic Research
EZ Policy Makers Will Avoid Tough Decisions and Continue to Muddle Through for Now
By Jun 3, 2011
Economic Research
From Reprofiling to Vienna Initiative 2.0: The Nonsense of Purely 'Voluntary' Bail-Ins of Greece's Sovereign Bank Creditors
By Jun 3, 2011
Europe Weekly
ECB Collateral Holdings; German Dynamics; UK Corporates; Turkish Monetary Policy; Polish Consumption; Hungarian Mortgage Relief
By May 27, 2011
Economic Research
Much Ado About Relatively Little: Contagion Risks From an Orderly Greek Debt Restructuring Are Modest, Contained and Manageable
By May 24, 2011
Economic Research
UK Financial Regulation: Pricing and Competitive Implications for Banks
By May 19, 2011
Economic Research
DSK's Arrest: Implications for the IMF Succession and PIIGS' Bailouts
By May 16, 2011
Europe Weekly
Eurozone Core Comes Up Trumps in Q1; UK, EZ Periphery Moving at Half Speed
By May 13, 2011
Economic Research
Why Inflation Is Not a Desirable or Likely Way to Reduce Unsustainable Debts
By May 10, 2011
Economic Research
A How-To Manual for Plan B: Options for Restructuring Greek Public Debt
By May 9, 2011
Europe Weekly
Shrinking Eurozone Liquidity; Russia's Banking Worries; Icesave Implications
By May 6, 2011
Economic Research
CDS and Debt Restructuring: Does the Existence of Credit Derivatives Make Restructuring Harder?
By Apr 21, 2011
Economic Research
Greek Debt Restructuring Debate: Is the Official Sector Converging Toward 'Plan B'?
By Apr 6, 2011
Economic Research
Global Financials Quarterly: Bank Earnings Face the Music as Stimulus Fades
By Mar 25, 2011
Economic Research
Q2 2011 Geostrategy Note: The Scent of Jasmine, Japan's Mega-Crisis and Other Global Drama
By Mar 24, 2011
Europe Weekly
Eastern Europe Monetary Policy; Icelandic Policy Rate; Irish Fiscal Challenges
By Mar 18, 2011
Economic Research
Central Europe: December PMIs Point to Strong Growth, Mounting Price Pressures
By Jan 7, 2011
Economic Research
2011 Geostrategy Note: The Roiling Pacific, Quagmiristan and EZ Targets
By Dec 29, 2010
Economic Research
Front-Loaded Stimulus, Back-Loaded Austerity: The Optimal Fiscal Austerity Path and the Risks of Other Routes
By Dec 2, 2010
Economic Research
Nordic Unemployment: Explaining the Divergent Trends During the Crisis
By Nov 30, 2010
Economic Research
Comparing Spain With Ireland and Other PIIGS: Better in Some Ways, More at Risk in Others
By Nov 25, 2010
Economic Research
An Orderly Market-Based Approach to the Restructuring of Eurozone Sovereign Debts Obviates the Need for Statutory Approaches
By Nov 15, 2010
Economic Research
Eurozone Periphery: Short-Term Sovereign Risk Amid Long-Term Restructuring Plans
By Nov 11, 2010
Europe Weekly
EZ's Head and Tailwinds; Acute Portuguese Crisis; Stalling Russian Growth
By Nov 5, 2010
Economic Research
Q4 2010 Geostrategic Risk Note: Asia on the Boil, U.S.-Europe Reap Anti-Incumbent Backlash
By Oct 7, 2010
Europe Weekly
EZ Current Accounts; Sweden's Hung Parliament Risk; Basel III Impact on German Banks
By Sep 17, 2010
Europe Weekly
Shrinking Russian Trade Surplus; the UK PMI Message; Czech Banks Still Solid
By Sep 10, 2010
Europe Weekly
Q2 GDP in the Eurozone and UK; High-Flying Swiss Franc; Turkey's Referendum
By Sep 3, 2010
Economic Research
Europe Weekly Spotlight: Eurozone Q2 Growth; Is Germany Rebalancing?; Polls Near in Latvia and Sweden
By Aug 13, 2010
Economic Research
Europe Weekly Spotlight: Greek Loan Review; Depressed French Consumers; UK Financial Reform
By Aug 6, 2010
Economic Research
Q3 2010 Geostrategy Note: Nascent Nukes, Portly PIIGS and the Taliban
By Aug 4, 2010
Economic Research
Europe Weekly Spotlight: EZ Corporate Credit Conditions; Inflation Risks in Russia
By Jul 30, 2010
Economic Research
Europe Weekly Spotlight: Germany Peaks; Slovakia Relents; UK House Price Indexes Diverge
By Jul 16, 2010
Economic Research
Europe Weekly Spotlight: Multi-Speed Eurozone Recovery; Strong UK Gilts; Confident Nordics
By Jul 9, 2010
Economic Research
Europe Weekly Spotlight: Merkel’s Worries Increase; Romania Ceases Monetary Easing
By Jul 2, 2010
Economic Research
Europe Weekly Spotlight: Growth in Turkey, Austerity Beyond (even France)
By Jun 25, 2010
Economic Research
Adjustment Dynamics in Spain: Will Belt-Tightening Cinch Off Growth?
By Jun 10, 2010
Economic Research
Eurogroup Ready to Provide €30 Billion at around 5%, IMF €15 Billion at Lower Rates
By Apr 12, 2010
Economic Research
The Greece Dilemma: Sovereign Debts Imperiling the Euro and Challenging EU Ties
By Jan 19, 2010
Economic Research
It is Time for a Special Insolvency Regime for Systemically Important Financial Institutions (Non-Bank Financial Firms and Bank Holding Companies)
By Mar 25, 2009
Economic Research
Global Recession Watch: A Dozen Significant Economies are at Risk of a Hard Landing
By Jun 25, 2008
EconoMonitors
Dan Alpert's Two Cents
Tinkerbell Economics - The Confidence Fairy, Pixie Dust and a Sleeping Dragon
Feb 6, 2012
Peterson Institute for International Economics
How Euro Brinkmanship Is Beginning to Succeed
Feb 5, 2012
Global Macro Channel
How to Exit the Danger Zone: IMF Update on Global Financial Stability
Jan 31, 2012
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Lessons for Europe’s Fiscal Union from US Federalism
Jan 30, 2012
Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor
Draghi, Soros, Geithner, Roubini, Calderon, Merkel: In Their Own Words From the WEF on the Europe Crisis Via Bloomberg
Jan 30, 2012
Europe Channel
Hot News! The Wehrmacht Failed to Take Greece. Now Germany Tries Again, With a Different Method.
Jan 29, 2012
Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor
Roubini and Rogoff with CNBC's Bartiromo - Recession in Europe, SOTU, Global Growth Risks
Jan 25, 2012
Europe Channel
ECB/Fed Support for the European Banking System - 750 Billion USD, and Counting ...
Jan 5, 2012
Dan Alpert's Two Cents
Pete Tchir is Troubled by a Hole in the ECB's Phantom Bailout Bucket (Long Term Refinancing Operations)
Dec 23, 2011
Finance & Markets Channel
On the ECB’s Long-Term Refinancing Operation and 2012 Macro Ideas for Investors
Dec 22, 2011
Great Leap Forward
PAYROLL TAX HOLIDAYS AND MMT: It's a Funny World, News Recap on the Eve of Xmas
Dec 20, 2011
Dan Alpert's Two Cents
In Flanders Fields of Dreams (or, €Zone Core c. 2012 = AIG c. 2008?)
Dec 13, 2011
Dan Alpert's Two Cents
On Sticky Wages and What Happens when Inflation is No Longer an Alternative
Dec 13, 2011
Global Macro Channel
Explaining the Gold Standard, the Euro, Default, Deflation, and Hyperinflation
Dec 11, 2011
Europe Channel
Full Text: Letter from Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy on the European Debt Crisis
Dec 8, 2011
Europe Channel
Full Text: Standard & Poor’s Puts Ratings on Eurozone Sovereigns on CreditWatch with Negative Implications
Dec 6, 2011
Finance & Markets Channel
Does Anybody Who Gets It Believe Central Banks Did All That Much Yesterday?
Dec 1, 2011
Dan Alpert's Two Cents
On Europe: Perhaps This Is the Week that Fewer People Listen to Nonsense
Nov 27, 2011
Peterson Institute for International Economics
The Failed Political Economy of the Euro Crisis
Nov 25, 2011
Peterson Institute for International Economics
The Next Strategic Target: De Gaulle’s EU Legacy
Nov 25, 2011
Europe Channel
German Bund Action Goes Badly; Bank of America CDS Spread Hit New High; EuroSovereign and US Bank Spreads Widen More. Will the Germans Finally Break Glass?
Nov 25, 2011
Finance & Markets Channel
The Complete and Annotated Guide to the European Bank Run (or the Final Phase of Goldman's World Domination Plan)
Nov 20, 2011
Ed Dolan's Econ Blog
On Technical Barriers to Leaving the Euro and Learning from Others’ Experience
Nov 20, 2011
Dan Alpert's Two Cents
On Printing Euros and the Real German Fear (hint, it's not 1923)
Nov 17, 2011
Great Leap Forward
EURO CRISIS IS SPREADING FROM PERIPHERY TO CENTER: The System Designed to Fail WILL Fail
Nov 16, 2011
Europe Channel
Merkel: Change European Constitution for Greater Fiscal Integration by 2013
Nov 14, 2011
Geostrategy Channel
Status Report on Europe’s Slow Re-Birth (First, the Current System Must Die)
Nov 10, 2011
Europe Channel
The Relevant Articles of the Lisbon Treaty for the Sovereign Debt Crisis
Nov 10, 2011
Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor
Nouriel Roubini's 2006 Speech at Davos-WEF Warning That Italy and PIGS May Experience Debt Crisis and EZ Break-Up in 5 years; and Tremonti's Reaction to the Speech
Nov 8, 2011
Geostrategy Channel
Europe’s Leaders Explain: 'We Don’t Want Elections. We Want to Govern.'
Nov 6, 2011
Daily Digest
Analysis
France needs policies aimed at stimulating supply: Which political party will dare to implement them?
Natixis Bank Jan 31, 2012
Analysis
Euro area: A broad-based increase in the PMI across the region
J.P.Morgan Chase Bank Feb 07, 2012
Analysis
The impact of recent central bank asset purchase programmes
BIS Bank for International Settlements Feb 07, 2012
Analysis
Global liquidity and risk appetite: a re-interpretation of the recent crises
ECB Feb 07, 2012
News
EU and Mercosur hope they can reach a trade agreement by the end of 2012
MercoPress Feb 07, 2012
Opinions
The silent bazooka: The three-year loans offered by the ECB to banks have helped stabilise the euro zone
The Economist Feb 04, 2012
Opinions
Angela the lawgiver- A pact to cut budget deficits is achieved at the cost of a growing democratic deficit
The Economist Feb 04, 2012
Research
The Euro area sovereign debt crisis: safe haven, credit rating agencies and the spread of the fever from Greece, Ireland and Portugal
ECB Feb 05, 2012
Analysis
Markit France Services/Composite PMI – final data (January 2012)
Markit Economic Feb 03, 2012
Analysis
Markit Germany Services/Composite PMI – final data (January 2012)
Markit Economic Feb 03, 2012
Analysis
French Nuclear Power to Become More Expensive Than Wind Power
European Wind Energy Association Feb 03, 2012
Research
Liquidity, risk and the global transmission of the 2007-08 financial crisis and the 2010-2011 sovereign debt crisis
ECB Feb 02, 2012
Analysis
Eurozone BLS: Tightening of lending standards intensifies in 4Q11, but the worst should be behind us
Unicredit Bank Feb 01, 2012
Analysis
Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI – final data (January 2012)
Markit Economic Feb 01, 2012
Analysis
German Final Manufacturing PMI (Jan): Return to Expansion Level Confirmed
BNP Paribas Feb 01, 2012
News
Italy’s Jobless Rate Climbed to Eight-Year Highest in December Amid Cuts
Bloomberg Jan 31, 2012
News
Greek Bondholders Are Said Set to Get GDP-Revival Sweetener in Debt Swap
Bloomberg Feb 01, 2012
Analysis
United Kingdom: We revise up 1Q GDP to 0.2%q/q, but still expect the MPC to expand its asset purchases in Februar
J.P.Morgan Chase Bank Jan 31, 2012
Analysis
Euro area: We revise up Euro area GDP growth to zero in 1Q12, but remain cautious about 2Q and 3Q
J.P.Morgan Chase Bank Jan 31, 2012
Analysis
German CDU's European Roadmap Revisited: EMU Exit Clause in the Cards?
Roubini Global Economics Jan 9, 2012
News
Africa Facing ‘Serious’ Threat From European Crisis as 2011 Growth Halves
Bloomberg Jan 27, 2012
Analysis
la Caixa:The deterioration in German economic sentiment slows up in December (January Monthly Update)
la Caixa January 2012
Analysis
Germany: 2011 rise in retail turnover expected to be about 1.2% in real terms
Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) Jan 05, 2012
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