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France

Macro View

Markets

Finance & Banking

Geostrategic & Long Term Issues

Key Indicators

National Accounts
Gross Domestic Product Growth
(Percent Change over Preceding Quarter, SA)
-1.2,0.3,0.3,0.6,0.1 0.1
Consumer Price Index
Harmonized - All-items
(2005=100, NSA)
107.99,108.57,108.89,109.04,109.04 109.04
Unemployment Rate- Mainland - Men and Women - All ages
(Percent, SA)
8.5,9.1,9.1,9.6,9.5 9.5
Business Survey
Past Production - Composite Indicator
(base=100, SA)
94,97,97,95,98 98
Government Finance
Government debt as a % of GDP
Total of General Government, (% of GDP, NSA)
66.4,63.7,63.8,68.1,78.1 78.1
Consumer Confidence Survey
Summary indicator
(Balance of opinion, SA)
-34,-36.54,-37.55,-38.85,-39 -39
data by Moody's

RGE's Q3 2010 France Outlook

RGE lowered its 2010 GDP growth forecast for the French economy to 1.2% from the previous 1.4%. Downsides risks have increased since RGE’s April 2010 outlook. The positive impetus from private consumption, the main pillar of the French economy, will prove limited in 2010 given falling purchasing power and weak consumer confidence. While the economic recovery will broaden, given the positive contribution from the external sector, export growth remains constraint by weak recovery prospects in France’s main trading partners and the economy’s ongoing competitiveness challenges. Investment will see only gradual signs of improvements in 2010 given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the economic recovery and still low capacity utilization rates.  Pressing fiscal consolidation needs will coincide with a slowdown in global in H2 2010 and the subsequent year. As a result, the economic recovery will prove less vibrant in 2011 despite the ongoing strengthening in household’s consumption. RGE expects GDP growth to slow to 1.0% in 2011.

Read the Q3 2010 France Outlook

EconoMonitors

Europe EconoMonitor

The Baron Münchhausen Effect

Edward Hugh Aug 30, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Too Soon To Cry Victory?

Edward Hugh Aug 6, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Crib Notes for G7 Unemployment Rates

Rebecca Wilder Jul 6, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Spain Is About to Make Trouble for German and French Banks

Yves Smith Jun 17, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

French Connection: The Eurozone Crisis Worsens Sharply

Peter Boone and Simon Johnson Jun 4, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Illiquency 2010, Sovereign Edition: A Lawyer’s Cut

Anna Gelpern May 9, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Europe's Web of Debt

Barry Ritholtz May 6, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Metternich with a Blackberry

Simon Johnson Mar 21, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Serious Problems Emerge for the F-UK-De Group of Countries

Edward Hugh Mar 16, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Choppy Waters Rock the Trans-Atlantic Relationship

Michael Moran Mar 11, 2010

Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor

The Greek Tragedy That Changed Europe

Simon Johnson Mar 8, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

The End Game for Europe: Wage Cutting and the Battle for Exports

Rebecca Wilder Mar 7, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

German Responsible for Stability and Growth Pact Wants to Bail Greece Out

Edward Harrison Mar 5, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

European Hangover

Walter Molano Feb 17, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

The New Banana Republics

Antonio Carlos Lemgruber Feb 11, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Greek Bailout News (1)

Edward Hugh Feb 2, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Double-Dip Worries In Japan and Germany

Edward Hugh Jan 14, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

Everyone Wants to Talk about Currencies

Michael Pettis Jan 11, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

A Decade to Tip the World to the East

David Smith Jan 5, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Greece Should Seek a Precautionary Standby...Now!

Models & Agents Dec 14, 2009

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

Roubini Global Economics – Holiday Season Kick-off: North America and Europe Retail Sales

RGE Analyst Team Nov 25, 2009

Europe EconoMonitor

Just How Much of a Eurozone Rebound Really Was There in Q3?

Edward Hugh Nov 17, 2009

Europe EconoMonitor

Beyond the Consensus on European Bank Credit

Edward Hugh Oct 28, 2009

Europe EconoMonitor

The French Rebound Continues In October While Germany Moves Sideways

Edward Hugh Oct 28, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

RGE Monitor - Q2 Performance in Western Europe

Elisa Parisi-Capone and Chris Mooney Sep 2, 2009

RGE Analysis

RGE STRATEGY VIEW

Struggling to Break Free: Rising Correlations Part II

By David Nowakowski and Natalia Gurushina Aug 25, 2010

RGE STRATEGY VIEW

The History of Risk—Correlations, Volatilities and Z-Scores

By David Nowakowski and Natalia Gurushina Aug 25, 2010

RGE STRATEGY VIEW

Renewable Energy: Investor Dreams and Sector Realities

By Shelley Goldberg Aug 19, 2010

RGE STRATEGY VIEW

Don’t Bet the Banks on an EZ Stress Test

By Jennifer Kapila, Elisa Parisi-Capone, Arnab Das and David Nowakowski Aug 12, 2010

Europe Weekly Spotlight: Greek Loan Review; Depressed French Consumers; UK Financial Reform

By Elisa Parisi-Capone, Katharina Jungen, Parul Walia, Rachel Ziemba, David Rogovic, Mary Stokes and Frances Donald Aug 6, 2010

RGE STRATEGY VIEW

Q3 2010 Scenario Analysis: Macroeconomic Factors & Asset Class Investment Implications

By Christian Menegatti, Rachel Ziemba, Arnab Das, Arun Motianey, Gina Sanchez, Natalia Gurushina and David Nowakowski Aug 2, 2010

RGE STRATEGY VIEW

Cross Asset Monthly: A Summer of Discontent: Navigating the Tug of War Between Greed and Fear

By Arnab Das, Natalia Gurushina, Arun Motianey, David Nowakowski, Gina Sanchez and Jennifer Kapila Jul 27, 2010

RGE STRATEGY FLASH

Chronicle of a Stress Test Foretold

By Jennifer Kapila, Elisa Parisi-Capone and Arnab Das Jul 26, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

France: Q3 2010 Outlook

By Katharina Jungen Jul 10, 2010

Europe Weekly Spotlight: Growth in Turkey, Austerity Beyond (even France)

By Elisa Parisi-Capone, Mary Stokes, Katharina Jungen, Mikko Forss, Parul Walia and David Rogovic Jun 25, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

France: Q2 2010 Outlook

By Katharina Jungen Apr 12, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

France: Q1 2010 Outlook

By Katharina Jungen Jan 30, 2010

Sovereign Debt: The Developed World’s Next Big Problem?

By Arpitha Bykere, Elisa Parisi-Capone, and Katharina Jungen Jan 13, 2010

France Economic Outlook, Q4 2009

Katharina Jungen Oct 7, 2009

France Economic Outlook, Q3 2009

Katharina Jungen Jul 24, 2009

Daily Digest

Analysis

Euro area growth: looking surprisingly good for now

JPMorgan  David Mackie and Nicola Mai Sep 02, 2010

News

EU May Limit Naked Shorts of Stocks, Government Debt

Bloomberg  Ben Moshinsky Sep 02, 2010

News

French Jobless Rate Shows First Drop Since Recession

Business Week  Sep 02, 2010

Research

Fiscal Space

IMF  Atish R. Ghosh, Jonathan D. Ostry, Jun I. Kim and Mahvash S. Qureshi Sep 01, 2010

Blogs

The solution to all the ECB’s problems, by Goldman Sachs

FT Alphaville  Tracy Alloway Sep 01, 2010

News

France Defends Its Policy on Roma

Wall Street Journal  Max Colchester Aug 31, 2010

News

France Calls for Stricter Rules on Commodity Derivatives

Wall Street Journal  Nathalie Boschat Aug 31, 2010

Opinions

Roma reveal a rootless Europe

Financial Times  Christopher Caldwell Aug 27, 2010

News

Socialists ready to challenge Sarkozy

FT  Aug 30, 2010

News

Does the French Government Really Believe Its Own Economic Forecasts?

Wall Street Journal  Irwin Stelzer Aug 30, 2010

News

In August €-coin holds mainly stable

Bank of Italy / CEPR  Aug 27, 2010

News

Chirac, City of Paris Discuss Settlement

Wall Street Journal  Aug 27, 2010

Research

The Euro-Project at Risk

Indiana University  Andreas Hauskrecht, Wilhelm Hankel and Bryan Stuart July 2010

News

A Crusade to Protect the Baguette?

Wall Street Journal  Patience Wheatcroft Aug 26, 2010

News

Crédit Agricole's Net Profit Soars

Wall Street Journal  Elena Berton Aug 26, 2010

News

France exploring tax harmonisation with Germany

EU Observer  Aug 26, 2010

Analysis

How Germany's Export Strength Helps its Neighbors

Spiegel online  Christian Reiermann Aug 24, 2010

Opinions

EU's Olli Rehn Discusses Economic Outlook, Bank Stress Tests

Bloomberg Audio/Video Report  Aug 24, 2010

News

French warned on growth view

FT  Aug 24, 2010

News

France’s Lagarde must press on

FT  Aug 24, 2010

News

Germany and France lead way in 'two-speed recovery'

EU Observer  Aug 24, 2010

News

French Unions Ready Protest

Wall Street Journal  Nathalie Boschat and William Horobin Aug 23, 2010

News

France Dims Outlook for 2011

Wall Street Journal  William Horobin Aug 21, 2010

News

Sarkozy Chooses Dishonor

Project Syndicate  Aug 23, 2010

News

Lagarde hits back at deficit critics

FT  Aug 23, 2010

News

France Cuts 2011 Growth Forecast

Wall Street Journal  William Horobin Aug 20, 2010

News

France Begins Controversial Roma Deportations

Spiegel online  Stefan Simons Aug 20, 2010

News

France warned on gypsy crackdown

FT  Aug 19, 2010

News

Agencies Affirm French Triple-A Rating

Wall Street Journal  Michael Wilson and William Horobin Aug 19, 2010

News

Construction output up by 2.7% in euro area

Eurostat  Aug 18, 2010

Analysis

Euro area balance of payments in June 2010

ECB  Aug 18, 2010

News

France Prepares to Deport Foreign Gypsies

Wall Street Journal  Max Colchester and Sebastian Moffett Aug 18, 2010

News

EU loses high-tech case at WTO

EuropeanVoice  Aug 17, 2010

Analysis

National fiscal governance reforms across EU Member State

European Commission  Aug 17, 2010

Analysis

ECB Monthly Bulletin, August 2010

ECB  Aug 12, 2010

News

Euro Rescue Fund Can Sell Debt After Italy’s Approval

Bloomberg  Jeffrey Donovan Aug 11, 2010

News

EU's $580 Billion Safety Fund up and Running

Reuters  Aug 11, 2010

News

Industrial Production: France, Denmark And Finland

Haver Analytics  Louise Curley Aug 10, 2010

News

Brussels proposes ‘eurotaxes’ to fund EU

Financial Times  Stanley Pignal Aug 10, 2010

News

French industrial production falls

Financial Times  Ben Hall Aug 10, 2010

News

Commission to present options for EU tax

EuropeanVoice.com  Simon Taylor Aug 09, 2010

Analysis

Introductory statement, August 5, 2010

ECB  Aug 05, 2010

News

The nearing end of a buffoon

Eurointelligence  Aug 05, 2010

News

EU Monetary policy decisions

ECB  Aug 05, 2010

News

France to rein in state-backed groups

FT  Aug 04, 2010

News

France's Tricky Nuclear Fusion

Wall Street Journal  Matthew Curtin Aug 03, 2010

News

France tightens grip on state-backed companies

Financial Times  Ben Hall Aug 03, 2010

News

Trends In French Industrial Turnover

Haver Analytics  Louise Curley Aug 02, 2010

Research

The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area

Bank of Italy  Massimiliano Pisani, Pascal Jacquinot and Sandra Gomes Aug 03, 2010

Blogs

Reckless Europe beats reckless America at property bubbles

Telegraph  Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Aug 03, 2010

Analysis

BNP Paribas Group: Results as at 30 June 2010

BNP Paribas  Aug 02, 2010

News

BNP boosted by retail banking strength

Financial Times  Ben Hall Aug 02, 2010

Research

The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis

IMF  Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti and Philip R. Lane Jul 31, 2010

News

Crédit Agricole leading indicators for France

Credit Agricole  Jul 28, 2010

Analysis

Leading indicators for France: A slight pick-up in the Q2 growth rate

Crédit Agricole  Ed and Jean-Paul Betbèze Jul 27, 2010

Research

Are the effects of fiscal changes different in times of crisis and non-crisis? The French Case

Bank of France  Gilles Dufrénot and Carine Bouthevillain Jul 27, 2010

Analysis

Macro structural bottlenecks to growth in EU Member States

European Commission  Jul 27, 2010

News

French and Nordic banks among top winners in Basel revamp

Reuters  Lionel Laurent Jul 27, 2010

News

Heiress Queried in French Probe

Wall Street Journal  Jul 27, 2010

Opinions

An Excess of Ambition for Sarkozy

NYT  Jul 26, 2010

Analysis

EU Stress Tests: Too Good To Be True?

BNP Paribas  Luigi Speranza Jul 26, 2010

News

The Dark Clouds Devised by Europe’s Bank Testers

New York Times  Matthew Saltmarsh and Jack Ewing Jul 24, 2010

Blogs

French banks: Lagarde unstressed

Economist  Jul 23, 2010

Analysis

France: Q3 2010 Outlook

Roubini Global Economics  Jul 23, 2010

News

Surveys Reveal Mixed Picture for French Growth in H2

IHS Global Insight  Jul 23, 2010

News

Eurozone data ease double-dip fears

Financial Times  Quentin Peel Jul 22, 2010

Research

EU fiscal consolidation after the financial crisis: Lessons from past experience

European Commission  Salvador Barrios, Sven Langedijk and Lucio Pench Jul 22, 2010

Research

Inflation and inflation uncertainity in the EURO area

ECB  Guglielmo Maria Caporale Luca Onorante Paolo Paesani Jul 22, 2010

News

French Labor Minister to Face Police Questioning

Wall Street Journal  Jul 22, 2010