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France

Macro View

Markets

Finance & Banking

Geostrategic & Long Term Issues

Key Indicators

National Accounts
Gross Domestic Product Growth
(Percent Change over Preceding Quarter, SA)
-1.5,-1.2,0.3,0.3,0.6 0.6
Consumer Price Index
Harmonized - All-items
(2005=100, NSA)
106.99,107.11,107.28,107.6,107.34 107.34
Unemployment Rate- Mainland - Men and Women - All ages
(Percent, SA)
7.8,8.5,9.1,9.1,9.6 9.6
Business Survey
Past Production - Composite Indicator
(base=100, SA)
89,89,89,92,91 91
Government Finance
Government debt as a % of GDP
Total of General Government, (% of GDP, NSA)
64.9,66.4,63.7,63.8,68.1 68.1
Consumer Confidence Survey
Summary indicator
(Balance of opinion, SA)
-34.53,-30,-31,-29.34,-33 -33
data by Moody's

RGE's Q1 2010 France Outlook

While the French economic recovery continued in Q3 2009, no acceleration in the growth momentum is expected to occur in 2010. In Q3 2009, French GDP grew 0.3% q/q, largely on the back of favorable net exports. Domestic demand, however, proved fragile with investment continuing its downward trend of previous quarters and private consumption stagnating for the first time since early 2008. France weathered the economic crisis much better than other major EU economies due to resilient private demand and limited reliance on the external sector. This approach turned out to be a valuable hedging strategy as it partially sheltered the French economy from the slowdown in global economic activity, thereby moderating the economic contraction. In addition, the large public sector helped stabilize the economy. As a result, RGE expects annual French GDP to decline a mild 2.2% in 2009, in line with the October forecast. Thereafter, the recovery will continue with the economy registering sustainable—albeit moderate—growth rates. Private consumption, the main pillar of the French economy, will continue to drive...

Read the Q1 2010 France Outlook.

EconoMonitors

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Choppy Waters Rock the Trans-Atlantic Relationship

Michael Moran Mar 11, 2010

Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor

The Greek Tragedy That Changed Europe

Simon Johnson Mar 8, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

The End Game for Europe: Wage Cutting and the Battle for Exports

Rebecca Wilder Mar 7, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

German Responsible for Stability and Growth Pact Wants to Bail Greece Out

Edward Harrison Mar 5, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

European Hangover

Walter Molano Feb 17, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

The New Banana Republics

Antonio Carlos Lemgruber Feb 11, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Greek Bailout News (1)

Edward Hugh Feb 2, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Double-Dip Worries In Japan and Germany

Edward Hugh Jan 14, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

Everyone Wants to Talk about Currencies

Michael Pettis Jan 11, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

A Decade to Tip the World to the East

David Smith Jan 5, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Greece Should Seek a Precautionary Standby...Now!

Models & Agents Dec 14, 2009

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

Roubini Global Economics – Holiday Season Kick-off: North America and Europe Retail Sales

RGE Analyst Team Nov 25, 2009

Europe EconoMonitor

Just How Much of a Eurozone Rebound Really Was There in Q3?

Edward Hugh Nov 17, 2009

Europe EconoMonitor

Beyond the Consensus on European Bank Credit

Edward Hugh Oct 28, 2009

Europe EconoMonitor

The French Rebound Continues In October While Germany Moves Sideways

Edward Hugh Oct 28, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

RGE Monitor - Q2 Performance in Western Europe

Elisa Parisi-Capone and Chris Mooney Sep 2, 2009

RGE Analysis

France: Q1 2010 Outlook

By Katharina Jungen Jan 30, 2010

Sovereign Debt: The Developed World’s Next Big Problem?

By Arpitha Bykere, Elisa Parisi-Capone, and Katharina Jungen Jan 13, 2010

France Economic Outlook, Q4 2009

Katharina Jungen Oct 07, 2009

France Economic Outlook, Q3 2009

Katharina Jungen Jul 24, 2009

Daily Digest

Analysis

Monthly Economic Report- february 2010: OUTLOOK FOR 2010

Societe Generale  Mar 12, 2010

News

France and Germany call for ban on CDS speculation

Financial Times  Mar 10, 2010

News

France, Germany want clampdown on speculation

European Voice  Mar 12, 2010

News

Looking 'Abroad' for Spending Help

Wall Street Journal  Patience Wheatcroft Mar 11, 2010

Analysis

€55 Billion for a Greek Bailout

Eurointelligence  Mar 12, 2010

Analysis

Sarkozy hedges his bets on UK election outcome

Financial Times  Mar 11, 2010

News

France, Germany back EU speculative trade ban

EU Business  Mar 11, 2010

Analysis

French Deficit Shrinks

Haver Analytics  Robert Brusca Mar 9, 2010

Research

France: 2010 – 2011 Scenario

Natixis  Mar 9, 2010

Analysis

Bar Sought on Market Blameless for Greek Woes

Wall Street Journal  Mar 9, 2010

Analysis

Berlin and Paris Take Aim at Speculators

Spiegel online  Mar 9, 2010

Opinions

Franco-German dynamics make EMF a distant goal

Financial Times  Quentin Peel Mar 8, 2010

News

Sarkozy says Europe will offer support

Ekathimerini  Mar 8, 2010

News

Sarkozy pledges support for Greek economy

European Voice  Mar 8, 2010

Opinions

First step towards more integrated eurozone

Financial Times  Quentin Peel Mar 7, 2010

News

Eurozone eyes IMF-style fund

Financial Times  Quentin Peel Mar 7, 2010

News

Sarkozy Says EU Must Back Greece or Put Monetary Union at Risk

Bloomberg  John Fraher and Lorenzo Totaro Mar 7, 2010

News

French debt coming under investor scrutiny

Reuters  Mar 5, 2010

Opinions

France looks on brighter side of Greek crisis

Financial Times  Paul Betts Mar 4, 2010

Analysis

Le Point de Vue: The French Economy (March 2010)

BNP Paribas  Mar 4, 2010

News

France inks deal with Russia's Gazprom

EurActiv  Mar 2, 2010

Opinions

Wading into Greek quicksand

Financial Times  Charles Wyplosz Feb 22, 2010

News

France to renew calls for EU carbon tariff

EurActiv  Mar 1, 2010

News

Germany and France agree to rescue Greece, with conditions

Telegraph  Rupert Neate Feb 28, 2010

News

Details Emerge for Greece Finance Plan

Wall Street Journal  Carrick Mollenkamp Feb 28, 2010

Research

Mortgage indebtedness and household financial distress

ECB  Melanie Ward-Warmedinger, Dimitris Georgarakos and Adriana Lojschová Feb 26, 2010

Analysis

EU Commission Interim Forecast, February 2010

EU Commission  Feb 25, 2010

News

Gazprom in contract shake-up

Financial Times  Catherine Belton and Ed Crooks Feb 26, 2010

Analysis

EU interim forecast: Fragile recovery in progress

European Commission  Feb 25, 2010

News

French Unions Call to End Refineries Strike

Wall Street Journal  Feb 24, 2010

News

French Refineries Strike Spreads

Wall Street Journal  Geraldine Amiel Feb 23, 2010

News

Industrial disputes grip European airlines

Financial Times  Feb 23, 2010

Analysis

Large EU Country Orders Go Back On The Rise…Mostly

Haver Analytics  Robert Brusca Feb 22, 2010

Analysis

France politics: Regime change?

Viewswire  Feb 22, 2010

News

French focus on their vision for eurozone

Financial Times  Ben Hal Feb 17, 2010

Analysis

France: Q1 2010 Outlook

Roubini Global Economics  Jan 30, 2010

Analysis

Public finances: Sustainability gaps between France, Italy and Germany

Deutsche Bank Research  Jan-Philipp Heinemann Feb 18, 2010

News

Exposure to Greece Weighs On French, German Banks

Wall Street Journal  Sebastian Moffett and Vanessa Fuhrmans Feb 17, 2010

News

Iran defiant as Russian joins US and France in nuclear sanctions push

Telegraph  Damien McElroy Feb 16, 2010

News

France sets pensions reform deadline

Financial Times  Feb 16, 2010

News

Germany and France Take on the Euro Speculators

Spiegel  Susanne Amann Feb 12, 2010

News

French arms sales to Russia

Economist  Feb 11, 2010

Opinions

France: How Gallic pride gave way to depression

Financial Times  Dominique Moïsi Feb 10, 2010

Opinions

Athens’ salvation lies in Paris and Berlin

Financial Times  Tony Barber, Ben Hall and Gerrit Wiesmann Feb 8, 2010

News

Paris pressed to show fiscal discipline

Financial Times  Ben Hall Feb 7, 2010

Analysis

Spain: Recession continues

Rabobank  Feb 8, 2010

Analysis

Positive developments in France

Rabobank  Feb 8, 2010

Research

Systemic Risks and the Macroeconomy

IMF  Gianni De Nicolò and Marcella Lucchetta Feb 4, 2010

Analysis

France Judicial system: Clear as mud

Economist  Feb 4, 2010

News

France and Germany to unveil 10-year plan

EU Observer  Valentina Pop Feb 4, 2010

News

France cuts deficit forecasts

Business Week  Feb 3, 2010

Analysis

France: Further activity growth in Q4 2009

Credit Agricole  Feb 3, 2010

News

UK seeks French defence entente

Financial Times  Feb 3, 2010

Analysis

Global financial crisis: the French policy answer in a EU perspective

French Economic Observatory, OFCE  Henri Sterdyniak and Catherine Mathieu Nov 1, 2009

News

Paris pledges cuts to reduce deficit

Financial Times  Peggy Hollinger Jan 31, 2010

News

President Nicolas Sarkozy's World Economic Forum Speech

Elysee Palace  Nicolas Sarkozy Jan 27, 2010

Analysis

Did the French labour market pay its dues?

Rabobank  Jan 29, 2010

News

Sarkozy: Globalization Got Out of Control

Wall Street Journal  Geoffrey T. Smith and Alessandra Galloni Jan 27, 2010

Opinions

French calls for a new Bretton Woods not so mad

Financial Times  Gillian Tett Jan 29, 2010

RGE Writings

Bremmer-Roubini 2010 Global Forecast

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor  Nouriel Roubini and Ian Bremmer Jan 28, 2010

News

Former French Prime Minister Acquitted in Slander Trial

Wall Street Journal  Sebastian Moffett Jan 28, 2010

News

Ruling paves way for de Villepin comeback

Financial Times  Jan 28, 2010

Analysis

France politics: Unhappy birthday

Viewswire  Jan 28, 2010

Analysis

Chinese Direct Investments in France: No French Exception, No Chinese Challenge

Chatham House  Françoise Nicolas Jan 1, 2010

Analysis

French Biz And Household Sectors Continue Process Of Repair

Haver Analytics  Robert Brusca Jan 27, 2010

Analysis

France embarks upon a fragile recovery

Lacaixa  Dec 27, 2009

Opinions

France: Republican bigotry

Financial Times  Jan 27, 2010

Analysis

Italy and France help solar PV industry back to growth - study

Rnewable Energy Focus  Dec 18, 2009

News

Sarkozy Promises Rise in French Job Creation

Wall Street Journal  Jan 25, 2010

News

Sarkozy Says French Economic Growth May Exceed 1.4% Estimate

Bloomberg  Gregory Viscusi and Helene Fouquet Jan 26, 2010