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France

Macroeconomy

Finance & Banking

Geostrategy

Key Indicators

HICP Annual Percentage Change
France 2005=100 - United Kingdom
1.9, 1.9, 1.7, 1.9, 1.6 1.6
International Trade
Balance, European Union (26 partners), Million EUR, SA/WDA - France
-2058, -3360, -2461, -1791, -2036 -2,036
Industrial Production
Industry, SA/WDA (2005=100) - France
8.38, 8.14, 5.41, 5.61, 3.25 3.25
Unemployment Rate by Sex and Age
Total, SA, % - France
9.6, 9.5, 9.3, 9.3, 9.2 9.2
Consumer Confidence Survey
Summary indicator, Balance, WDA/SA % - France
-36.73, -35.13, -33.85, -32.43, -36.17 -36.17
Government Consolidated Gross Debt
General Government, % of GDP - France
66, 67.4, 70.4, 73.9, 75.8 75.8
Gross domestic product at market prices
Mil of euro (chained 2000 prices), Real, SA, WDA - France
0.18, 0.68, 0.36, 0.36, 0.97 0.97
data by Factset

France Outlook: Deleveraging Weighs on Domestic Demand

The negative impact of the eurozone debt crisis on business and consumer confidence will continue to undermine France’s fragile domestic demand, alongside pressing deleveraging and government retrenchment. We expect economic activity to contract on an annual basis for the duration of 2012 and 2013. Due to the worsening economic outlook, continued structural weaknesses and the rising possibility of fiscal slippage, we expect France to lose its triple-A credit rating in 2012 and miss its deficit targets. While President Nicolas Sarkozy remains a strong candidate and we expect him to gain credit for his fiscal prudence, a double-dip recession and rising joblessness will see the president struggle to gain re-election in April/May 2012.

Read the latest France Outlook

Economic Research

Economic Research

EZ vs. U.S. Recessions—This Time Is Different

By Mikko Forss Dec 19, 2011

Europe Weekly

EU Summit Special: Ratification Risks; UK Veto; IMF Fire Power; EZ Calendar

By Katharina Jungen, Elisa Parisi-Capone, Mark Willis, Mikko Forss and Jelena Vukotic Dec 16, 2011

Central Bank Watch

European Central Bank: December Update

By Elisa Parisi-Capone Dec 15, 2011

Economic Research

What to Expect at the EU Summit Tomorrow: More Can-Kicking

By Megan Greene Dec 8, 2011

Economic Research

France, Belgium and Austria in Eurozone Purgatory…For Now

By Katharina Jungen and Mark Willis Dec 7, 2011

Global Economic Outlook

France Outlook: Deleveraging Weighs on Domestic Demand

By Mark Willis Dec 7, 2011

Economic Research

Running Out of Time: Likely Path Ahead for the EZ

By Megan Greene Nov 30, 2011

Economic Research

Conference Call Highlights: Can the EZ Be Brought Back From the Brink?

By Nouriel Roubini and the RGE Market Strategy and Economic Research Teams Nov 17, 2011

Global Economic Outlook

France Outlook Update: Returning to Recession

By Mark Willis Oct 31, 2011

Economic Research

EU Summit Reaction: The Devil Is in the Details

By Megan Greene and Jennifer Kapila Oct 27, 2011

Economic Research

France's Credit Rating: Au Revoir Triple-A

By Katharina Jungen and Mark Willis Oct 26, 2011

Economic Research

Waiting for the Wednesday Summit: Progress Report on EFSF Leverage Options, Bank Recaps and Greece

By Elisa Parisi-Capone and David Nowakowski Oct 24, 2011

Economic Research

Low Inflation in EZ Core Threatens Periphery’s Efforts to Regain Competitiveness

By William Oman and Megan Greene Oct 21, 2011

Economic Research

Conference Call Replay: Eurozone in Crisis—More Than a Plan to Plan Needed

By Nouriel Roubini and the RGE Market Strategy and Economic Research Teams Oct 21, 2011

Economic Research

Last Shot on Goal: Will Eurozone Leaders Succeed in Ending the Crisis?

By Megan Greene and Nouriel Roubini Oct 21, 2011

Europe Weekly

Germany's EFSF Ratification; Sarkozy's Dwindling Re-Election Hopes; Poland's Currency Intervention

By Katharina Jungen, Mark Willis and Jelena Vukotic Sep 30, 2011

Europe Weekly

Czech Republic, France and Turkey Outlook Update Highlights

By Jelena Vukotic, Mark Willis and David Rogovic Sep 16, 2011

Global Economic Outlook

France Outlook Update: Weak Consumption Threatens Recovery

By Mark Willis Sep 14, 2011

Europe Weekly

Bleak Outlook for Western Europe's Labor Market

By Mikko Forss, Katharina Jungen, Mark Willis, Parul Walia, Sehaj Malik and Filipe Albuquerque Sep 9, 2011

Europe Weekly

Weak Domestic Demand Prospects in Europe, With Few Bright Spots

By Katharina Jungen, Mark Willis, Mikko Forss, Parul Walia, Jelena Vukotic, David Rogovic, William Oman, Sehaj Malik and Filipe Albuquerque Sep 2, 2011

Europe Weekly

Europe-Wide Growth Slowdown

By Elisa Parisi-Capone, Katharina Jungen, Mikko Forss, Jelena Vukotic, Parul Walia, William Oman, Sehaj Malik, Filipe Albuquerque Aug 19, 2011

Global Economic Outlook

Eurozone Outlook Update: Sharp Slowdown Ahead

By Elisa Parisi-Capone Aug 17, 2011

Economic Research

Pressure Mounts on France’s Triple-A Credit Rating

By Mark Willis and Katharina Jungen Aug 15, 2011

Europe Weekly

Inflation Concerns Easing in EZ, Switzerland, UK, Hungary and Czech Republic

By Katharina Jungen, Sehaj Malik, Parul Walia and Jelena Vukotic Aug 12, 2011

Economic Research

Conference Call on S&P's U.S. Downgrade: Opening Remarks

By Nouriel Roubini and David Nowakowski Aug 8, 2011

Global Economic Outlook

Eurozone Outlook Update: Make It or Break It?

By Elisa Parisi-Capone Jun 22, 2011

Global Economic Outlook

France Outlook Update: Growth Peaked in Q1

By Mark Willis Jun 17, 2011

Economic Research

EZ Policy Makers Will Avoid Tough Decisions and Continue to Muddle Through for Now

By Nouriel Roubini, Elisa Parisi-Capone, James Mason, Katharina Jungen, Mark Willis and Mikko Forss Jun 3, 2011

Europe Weekly

Turkish Elections; How DSK Impacts France; Norway’s Likely Hiking Plan

By David Rogovic, Oritse J. Uku, Mark Willis and Mikko Forss May 20, 2011

Economic Research

DSK's Arrest: Implications for the IMF Succession and PIIGS' Bailouts

By Nouriel Roubini May 16, 2011

Europe Weekly

Eurozone Core Comes Up Trumps in Q1; UK, EZ Periphery Moving at Half Speed

By Elisa Parisi-Capone, Katharina Jungen and James Mason May 13, 2011

Global Economic Outlook

Eurozone Outlook Update: Mind the Inflation 'Hump' in 2011

By Elisa Parisi-Capone May 2, 2011

Europe Weekly

German Consumer Climate; French Public Finances; Greek Fiscal Slippage

By Katharina Jungen, Mark Willis, Elisa Parisi-Capone, Parul Walia and Jelena Vukotic Apr 29, 2011

Economic Research

Is the Global Nuclear Renaissance Over?

By Gary Clark Mar 31, 2011

Economic Research

Eurozone: March Flash PMIs Signal Consolidation

By Elisa Parisi-Capone Mar 25, 2011

Global Economic Outlook

France Outlook: Consolidated Economic Recovery in 2011

By Mark Willis Mar 18, 2011

Economic Research

France: Widening Deficit Detracts From Solid Export Performance

By Mark Willis Mar 11, 2011

Europe Weekly

Widening French Deficit; Czech Monetary Policy; Scandinavian Inflation

By Mark Willis, Jelena Vukotic, Parul Walia, Mikko Forss and James Mason Mar 11, 2011

Europe Weekly

ECB Surprise; UK Manufacturing; Hungary's Reform Package

By RGE's Europe Analyst Team Mar 4, 2011

Global Economic Outlook

Global Overview: 2011 Outlook

By Christian Menegatti, Nouriel Roubini and the RGE Macroeconomics Team Dec 7, 2010

Global Economic Outlook

Eurozone: 2011 Outlook

By Elisa Parisi-Capone and Nouriel Roubini Dec 7, 2010

Global Economic Outlook

France: 2011 Outlook

By Katharina Jungen Dec 7, 2010

Global Economic Outlook

Macro Forecasts: 2011 Outlook

By the RGE Macroeconomics Team Dec 7, 2010

Economic Research

The Zone of Austerity: Political Risk Stalking the Eurozone

By Michael Moran Dec 1, 2010

Europe Weekly

German Fiscal Consolidation; Icelandic Debt Relief; Sarkozy 2.0

By Katharina Jungen, Mikko Forss, Jelena Vukotic and Mark Willis Nov 19, 2010

Economic Research

France: Sarkozy 2.0

By Mark Willis Nov 19, 2010

Economic Research

Eurozone: PMIs Confirm Slowdown Ahead

By Elisa Parisi-Capone Sep 24, 2010

Global Economic Outlook

France: September 2010 Outlook Update

By Katharina Jungen Sep 10, 2010

Global Economic Outlook

Eurozone: September 2010 Outlook Update

By Elisa Parisi-Capone Sep 10, 2010

Global Economic Outlook

Global Overview: September 2010 Outlook Update

By Nouriel Roubini, Christian Menegatti and the RGE Macroeconomic Team Sep 10, 2010

Economic Research

Europe Weekly Spotlight: Greek Loan Review; Depressed French Consumers; UK Financial Reform

By Elisa Parisi-Capone, Katharina Jungen, Parul Walia, Rachel Ziemba, David Rogovic, Mary Stokes and Frances Donald Aug 6, 2010

Global Economic Outlook

France: Q3 2010 Outlook

By Katharina Jungen Jul 10, 2010

Economic Research

Europe Weekly Spotlight: Growth in Turkey, Austerity Beyond (even France)

By Elisa Parisi-Capone, Mary Stokes, Katharina Jungen, Mikko Forss, Parul Walia and David Rogovic Jun 25, 2010

Global Economic Outlook

France: Q2 2010 Outlook

By Katharina Jungen Apr 12, 2010

Economic Research

Choppy Waters Rock the Trans-Atlantic Relationship

By Michael Moran Mar 11, 2010

Global Economic Outlook

France: Q1 2010 Outlook

By Katharina Jungen Jan 30, 2010

Economic Research

Sovereign Debt: The Developed World's Next Big Problem?

By Arpitha Bykere, Elisa Parisi-Capone and Katharina Jungen Jan 13, 2010

Economic Research

France Economic Outlook, Q4 2009

By Katharina Jungen Oct 7, 2009

Economic Research

France Economic Outlook, Q3 2009

By Katharina Jungen Jul 24, 2009

EconoMonitors

The Wilder View

European Daily Catch: Know Your Consumers

Rebecca Wilder Jan 26, 2012

The Kapali Carsi

More on the Eurozone Downgrades and Turkey (and other EMs)

Emre Deliveli Jan 20, 2012

The Kapali Carsi

Sarkozy’s bright idea

Emre Deliveli Dec 29, 2011

Geostrategy Channel

Le Pen: France Must Leave the Eurozone

Edward Harrison Nov 20, 2011

Europe Channel

Chaney Says 'Recession Has Already Started in Europe,' Talks to Euro-TARP

Edward Harrison Oct 14, 2011

Last Days of Rome

The Sad Case of the Germans

Michael Moran Sep 19, 2011

Dan Alpert's Two Cents

Reflections on "Correction 2" - This Summer it's Different

Daniel Alpert Aug 12, 2011

Dan Alpert's Two Cents

WHAT A WEEK! Jobs, Macroeconomics, Markets and More

Daniel Alpert Aug 5, 2011

Geostrategy Channel

Keeping the Euro Jigsaw from Breaking Up

David Smith Nov 21, 2010

Europe Channel

Has the Market Finally Gotten it on the Eurozone Periphery?

Claus Vistesen Nov 1, 2010

Don't Shoot the Messenger

The Baron Münchhausen Effect

Edward Hugh Aug 30, 2010

Don't Shoot the Messenger

Too Soon To Cry Victory?

Edward Hugh Aug 6, 2010

The Wilder View

Crib Notes for G7 Unemployment Rates

Rebecca Wilder Jul 6, 2010

Europe Channel

Spain Is About to Make Trouble for German and French Banks

Yves Smith Jun 17, 2010

Geostrategy Channel

French Connection: The Eurozone Crisis Worsens Sharply

Peter Boone & Simon Johnson Jun 4, 2010

Geostrategy Channel

Illiquency 2010, Sovereign Edition: A Lawyer’s Cut

Anna Gelpern May 9, 2010

Europe Channel

Europe's Web of Debt

Barry Ritholtz May 6, 2010

Geostrategy Channel

Metternich with a Blackberry

Simon Johnson Mar 21, 2010

Don't Shoot the Messenger

Serious Problems Emerge for the F-UK-De Group of Countries

Edward Hugh Mar 16, 2010

The Wilder View

The End Game for Europe: Wage Cutting and the Battle for Exports

Rebecca Wilder Mar 7, 2010

Geostrategy Channel

German Responsible for Stability and Growth Pact Wants to Bail Greece Out

Edward Harrison Mar 5, 2010

Europe Channel

European Hangover

Walter Molano Feb 17, 2010

Latin America Channel

The New Banana Republics

Antonio Carlos Lemgruber Feb 11, 2010

Don't Shoot the Messenger

Greek Bailout News (1)

Edward Hugh Feb 2, 2010

Don't Shoot the Messenger

Double-Dip Worries In Japan and Germany

Edward Hugh Jan 14, 2010

Geostrategy Channel

Everyone Wants to Talk about Currencies

Michael Pettis Jan 11, 2010

Europe Channel

A Decade to Tip the World to the East

David Smith Jan 5, 2010

Geostrategy Channel

Greece Should Seek a Precautionary Standby...Now!

Models & Agents Dec 14, 2009

Don't Shoot the Messenger

Just How Much of a Eurozone Rebound Really Was There in Q3?

Edward Hugh Nov 17, 2009

Don't Shoot the Messenger

Beyond the Consensus on European Bank Credit

Edward Hugh Oct 28, 2009

Don't Shoot the Messenger

The French Rebound Continues In October While Germany Moves Sideways

Edward Hugh Oct 28, 2009

Daily Digest

Analysis

Markit France Services/Composite PMI – final data (January 2012)

Markit Economic  Jack Kennedy Feb 03, 2012

Analysis

French Nuclear Power to Become More Expensive Than Wind Power

European Wind Energy Association  Feb 03, 2012

Analysis

Markit France Manufacturing PMI – final data (January 2012)

Markit Economic  Jack Kennedy Feb 01, 2012

Opinions

Europe is stuck on life support

Financial Times  Martin Wolf Jan 31, 2012

News

Europe signs up to German-led fiscal pact

Reuters  Paul Taylor and Julien Toyer Jan 31, 2012

Analysis

French household confidence is marginally up (January 2012)

BNP Paribas  Dominique Barbet Jan 26, 2012

Analysis

French retail sales roughly flat again in November

BNP Paribas  Dominique Barbet Jan 04, 2012

News

Turkey Slams France on Genocide Bill .

Wall Street Journal  Joe Parkinson and Nadya Masidlover Jan 25, 2012

Analysis

French PMI higher, but outlook remains gloom

BNP Paribas  Dominique Barbet Jan 24, 2012

Analysis

Markit Flash France PMI (January 2012)

Markit Economic  Jan 24, 2012

Analysis

The French economy; going through a weak phase

la Caixa  Jan 23, 2012

Analysis

The French economy; going through a weak phase

la Caixa  Jan 23, 2012

Analysis

French business survey much poorer than expected

BNP Paribas  Dominique Barbet Jan 23, 2012

Opinions

French politics- Down a notch

The Economist  Jan 21, 2012

Analysis

France's Credit Rating: Au Revoir Triple-A

RGE  Katharina Jungen and Mark Willis Oct 26 , 2011

News

S&P to Cut France by One Notch

WSJ  Jan 13, 2012

Analysis

Economic Update France (January 2012)

Rabobank  Michiel Verduijn Jan 12, 2012

Analysis

Euro Zone: Weak activity

BNP Paribas  Clemente De Lucia Jan 12, 2012

News

Rwanda: French genocide report could boost trade

Reuters  Graham Holliday Jan 12, 2012

Analysis

French inflation above consensus in December

BNP Paribas  Dominique Barbet Jan 12, 2012

News

Merkel, Sarkozy press for quick Greek solution

Reuters  Stephen Brown and Noah Barkin Jan 10, 2012

Opinions

Merkozy rides again

The Economist  Jan 09, 2012

News

German, French Data Raise Hope

The Wall Street Journal  Tom Fairless and William Horobin Jan 09, 2012

Opinions

The world economy- Self-induced sluggishness

The Economist  Jan 07, 2012

Analysis

Understanding Eurozone debt developments by nation

VoxEU  Gianluca Cafiso Jan 05, 2012

Analysis

Markit France Services/Composite PMI – final data (December 2011)

Markit Economic  Jack Kennedy Jan 04, 2012

News

China and France chase US shale assets

Financial Times  Adam Jones, James Boxell and Ed Crooks Jan 04, 2012

Analysis

Markit France Manufacturing PMI – final data (December 2011)

Markit Economic  Jack Kennedy Jan 02, 2012

News

Sarkozy Outlines Jobs Plan

The Wall Street Journal  Gabriele Parussini Dec 30, 2011

Opinions

The French Don’t Get It

Project Syndicate  Martin Feldstein Dec 28, 2011

Analysis

Unicredit: 2012 Outlook-Gradually moving towards a better place

Unicredit Bank  Marco Valli Dec 15, 2011

Analysis

French unemployment continues to rise quickly

BNP Paribas  Dominique Barbet Dec 27, 2011

News

French unemployment at 12-year high

Financial Times  Dec 27, 2011

Blogs

Turks Mull Boycott of French Products

Wall Street Journal  Ayla Albayrak Dec 23, 2011

News

Turkey Freezes Relations With France Over Armenian Genocide Denial Measure

Bloomberg  Steve Bryant and Emre Peker Dec 23, 2011

Analysis

Markit Flash France PMI (December 2011)

Markit Economic  Jack Kennedy Dec 15, 2011

News

West seeks Saudi Arabia's help on Iran oil sanctions

LA TImes  Paul Richter Dec 13, 2011

Analysis

Monthly Report-November 2011

la Caixa  November, 2011

Analysis

France Outlook: Deleveraging Weighs on Domestic Demand

Roubini Global Economics  Mark Willis Dec 07, 2011

Analysis

France, Belgium and Austria in Eurozone Purgatory…For Now

RGE  Katharina Jungen and Mark Willis Dec 07, 2011

Opinions

The British “Non”

Project Syndicate  Harold James Dec 11, 2011

News

Eurozone deal leaves UK isolated

Financial Times  Peter Spiegel, Quentin Peel, Alex Barker and Stanley Pignal Dec 09, 2011

News

European banks have €115bn shortfall

Financial Times  Ralph Atkins and Patrick Jenkins Dec 08, 2011

News

Moody's Downgrades French Banks

The Wall Street Journal  Digby Larner and Natasha Brereton-Fukui Dec 09, 2011

News

Moody's downgrades three French banks

Reuters  Dec 09, 2011

Analysis

Markit France Services/Composite PMI– final data (November 2011)

Markit Economic  Jack Kennedy Dec 05, 2011

Analysis

French services PMI revised slightly up

BNP Paribas  Dominique Barbet Dec 05, 2011

News

France, Spain Lead Rally in European Bond Markets

The Wall Street Journal  Neelabh Chaturvedi, Emese Bartha and Nick Cawley Dec 01, 2011

Analysis

French weak manufacturing PMI revised down

BNP Paribas  Dominique Barbet Dec 01, 2011

Analysis

Markit France Manufacturing PMI– final data (November 2011)

Markit Economic  Jack Kennedy Dec 01, 2011

Analysis

French retail sales were flat in October

BNP Paribas  Dominique Barbet Nov 30, 2011

Analysis

French unemployment was sharply up in October

BNP Paribas  Dominique Barbet Nov 29, 2011

News

Environmental Concerns May Drive Down EU Gas Use

Platts  Alex Froley Nov 25, 2011

Analysis

French household confidence extremely poor

BNP Paribas  Dominique Barbet Nov 25, 2011

Analysis

France: Monthly Report, November 2011

la Caixa  Nov 25, 2011

Analysis

French surveys point towards recession

BNP Paribas  Dominique Barbet Nov 23, 2011

Analysis

Markit Flash France PMI (November 2011)

Markit Economic  Jack Kennedy Nov 23, 2011

News

Moody’s warns on France’s triple A status

FT  Hugh Carnegy Nov 22, 2011

News

Moody's warns on French rating outlook

Reuters  Nov 21, 2011

Analysis

Eco Week:Cracks in the European core circle

BNP Paribas  Alexandra Estiot Nov 18, 2011

Analysis

Falling Carbon Credit Prices Inidicate Weakness in EUA System?

Platts  Frank Watson Nov 17, 2011

News

Left-Wing French Parties Attacked for Plan to Close Nuclear Plants

Reuters  Leigh Thomas, Gerard Bon, Elizabeth Pineau and Emile Picy Nov 17, 2011

News

France and Germany clash over ECB crisis role

Reuters  James Mackenzie and Nicholas Vinocur Nov 17, 2011

Analysis

Solar PV Could Become Competitive as Early as 2013 in Some Markets

European Photovoltaic Energy Association (EPIA)  Nov 15, 2011

News

In 2011 Q3 French GDP increased by 0.4%

INSEE  Nov 15, 2011

Analysis

French GDP up 0.4% in Q3 but slowing

BNP Paribas  Dominique Barbet Nov 15, 2011

Analysis

France and Africa after the Libyan Intervention

Chatham House  Stéphane Gompertz Oct 26, 2011

News

OECD: Major Economies to Slow

The Wall Street Journal  Nov 14, 2011

Research

European Economic Forecast - Autumn 2011

European Commission  Nov 10, 2011

Opinions

Down with the Eurozone

Project Syndicate  Nouriel Roubini Nov 11, 2011

Opinions

Europe’s Darkness at Noon

Project Syndicate  Barry Eichengreen Nov 08, 2011

Analysis

French central budget deficit narrowed in September

BNP Paribas Research  Dominique Barbet Nov 09, 2011

News

France warns Iran of ‘unprecedented’ sanctions

Financial Times  James Blitz and Geoff Dyer Nov 09, 2011

Analysis

French September exports corrected most of previous gain

BNP Paribas Research  Dominique Barbet Nov 08, 2011

News

France unveils €18.6bn budget savings

Financial Times  Hugh Carnegy Nov 07, 2011

Analysis

Markit France Services/Composite PMI – final data (October 2011)

Markit Economic  Jack Kennedy Nov 04, 2011

Analysis

Economic Update France (November 2011)

Rabobank  Michiel Verduijn Nov 03, 2011

Analysis

Greece: Political support for Papandreou is vanishing

Danske Bank  Frank Øland Hansen and Anders Møller Lumholtz Nov 03, 2011

News

Europe's Greece Ultimatum

The Wall Street Journal  Marcus Walker, Charles Forelle and David Gauthier-Villars Nov 03, 2011

Analysis

Markit France Manufacturing PMI– final data (October 2011)

Markit Economic  Jack Kennedy Nov 02, 2011

Analysis

France: How Close to the Edge?

Morgan Stanley  Olivier Bizimana Nov 01, 2011

News

Sarkozy warns on growth and austerity

Financial Times  Hugh Carnegy Oct 27, 2011

Blogs

Europe’s Economy is Falling Apart

naked capitalism  Yves Smith Oct 31, 2011