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Gulf Cooperation Council

Macro View

Markets

Finance & Banking

Geostrategic & Long Term Issues

Current Economic Outlook

The onset of the financial crisis and regional slowdown has exposed the divergences across GCC countries in terms of growth patterns and financial vulnerabilities. Despite a regional reliance on hydrocarbon exports, GCC countries varied in their depth of economic diversification, their exposure to international capital markets and their financial and economic buffers. The GCC should be well placed as the global economy recovers, particularly if demand from emerging markets contributes to an increase in demand for oil and oil products. At a price of US$70 per barrel, all countries should be able to balance their budgets and the region as a whole should run a small surplus. As global conditions improve and the demand for exports and commodities picks up, the region’s surpluses will mount again with the rising oil price. With Qatar’s new natural gas pipeline set to open, gas exports are expected to increase by more than 50%. However, surpluses will not be as large as in 2006 and 2007 as more funds are being absorbed domestically. Greater spending on infrastructure will support longer‐term growth.

 

Read the latest RGE Global Economic Update.

RGE Analysis

Abu Dhabi Delivers the Funds: What Next?

By Rachel Ziemba Dec 14, 2009

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Economic Outlook, Q4 2009

Ayah El-Said, Rachel Ziemba Oct 07, 2009

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Economic Outlook, Q3 2009

Ayah El-Said & Rachel Ziemba Jul 24, 2009

GCC Sovereigns: A Little Better Off

Rachel Ziemba Jul 09, 2009

Another Blow to the GCC Monetary Union: The UAE Pulls Out

Ayah el Said and Rachel Ziemba May 20, 2009

Will a "Bad Bank" Provide a Solution to Kuwait's Financial Woes?

Ayah el Said and Rachel Ziemba May 17, 2009

GCC Sovereigns Resort to the Bond Market

Rachel Ziemba and Ayah el Said Mar 31, 2009

GCC Sovereign Funds: Reversal of Fortune

Brad Setser and Rachel Ziemba Jan 31, 2009

GCC Investments: A Change of Fortune

Rachel Ziemba Jan 14, 2009

Saudi 2009 Budget: Deficit-Bound

Rachel Ziemba Dec 29, 2008

The New Saudi Investment Vehicle (SIV)

Rachel Ziemba Apr 28, 2008

Tracking GCC Savings and Borrowings

Rachel Ziemba Apr 27, 2008

EconoMonitors

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Kuwait Finally Going the Whole Nine Yards?

Ayah el Said and Rachel Ziemba Mar 15, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

ADIA Parts the Curtain... A Tiny Bit

Rachel Ziemba Mar 14, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Yemen’s Push into the Gas Sector Fails to Stimulate Great Excitement and Raises Disturbing Questions

Fawzia Sheikh Mar 4, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Bank Collapse in Austria Brings Debt in Eastern Europe Center Stage

Edward Harrison Dec 15, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

How Much Unity in the United Arab Emirates?

Michael Moran and Rachel Ziemba Dec 9, 2009

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

Asset Price Co-Movements and the Dollar Carry Trade

Heiko Hesse Dec 4, 2009

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

Wednesday Note - After Dubai

Rachel Ziemba Dec 2, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

CNBC Interview with Arnab Das Discussing Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and India

Arnab Das Nov 30, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Total Eclipse at the Heart of Dubai's World

Edward Hugh Nov 29, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

The Bust in Dubai and Exogenous Shocks

Edward Harrison Nov 29, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Does Dubai Matter? Ask Ireland

Simon Johnson Nov 29, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

What do Istithmar’s Troubles Signal for other Sovereign Investors?

Rachel Ziemba Sep 14, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Ripples of 9/11 Continue 8 Years On

Rachel Ziemba Sep 11, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

OPEC and the Oil Market

Rachel Ziemba Sep 4, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Small Countries, Small Problems?

Syed Basher Aug 27, 2009

Daily Digest

Analysis

Oman: Banking Sector Resilience

IMF Working Paper  Pierluigi Bologna and Ananthakrishan Prasad Mar 16, 2010

News

Dubai Inflation Slows to 1% in February From 1.3% in January

Bloomberg  Camilla Hall Mar 16, 2010

Analysis

GCC Banking Sector Quarterly: Profitability goes downhill in 2009

Global Investment House (free registration)  Mar 1, 2010

News

Kuwait property sales down by 34% over two months

Kuwait News Agency  Mar 15, 2010

News

UAE: Leading wealth fund reveals its strategy on investment

Financial Times  Robin Wigglesworth Mar 15, 2010

Analysis

UAE should learn to love its liabilities as well as its assets

The National  Frank Kane Mar 12, 2010

Blogs

Investment Dar shows how Kuwaiti investments went wrong

ArabianMoney.net  Peter Cooper Mar 14, 2010

Blogs

Dubai house prices facing a double dip?

ArabianMoney.net  Peter Cooper Mar 15, 2010

News

UAE: Abu Dhabi SWF sees more global "uncertainty" in 2010

Reuters  Dinesh Nair Mar 15, 2010

Analysis

IMF favours bank stress tests for Gulf banks

The National  Uta Harnischfeger and Tom Arnold Mar 15, 2010

Blogs

What Happened To Kuwait’s Billionaires ?!

Alpha Dinar  Mar 15, 2010

Analysis

Gulf Countries Limit Fallout from Crisis

IMF Survey Magazine  Mar 12, 2010

News

OPEC's Next Challenge: Production Targets

Wall Street Journal  Spencer Swartz Mar 15, 2010

Blogs

Saudi Arabia Opens Up, Sorta

WSJ Marketbeat  Mar 14, 2010

Blogs

ADIA Parts the Curtain... A Bit

RGE Analysts EconoMonitor  Rachel Ziemba Mar 14, 2010

News

Gulf shareholders face dearth of dividends

Financial Times  Robin Wigglesworth Mar 10, 2010

Analysis

Abu Dhabi Investment Authority Annual Review 2009

Abu Dhabi Investment Authority  Mar 14, 2010

Blogs

Daman launches new fund amidst bullish outlook for GCC economies

Frontier Markets Blog  Mar 13, 2010

Analysis

Bond market a must for the Middle East

Money Works  Mar 12, 2010

News

UAE sees no need for capital injection into banks

Arabian Business  Nicolas Parasie and Rania Oteify Mar 11, 2010

News

UAE: Dubai creditors to get multiple options

Reuters  Mar 10, 2010

News

Dubai World Creditors May Avoid Haircut On $22B Debt-Bankers

Dow Jones Newswires  Mar 11, 2010

Analysis

UAE must push ahead on commercial law reforms

Financial Times  Paul Stothard Mar 11, 2010

Analysis

Saudi Chartbook- March 2010

Jadwa  Mar 1, 2010

News

Bahrain’s Low Debt Levels Give It More Fiscal Room

Bloomberg  Arif Sharif and Camilla Hall Mar 11, 2010

News

UAE's spending highest despite low oil revenues

Business 24/7  Mar 11, 2010

News

Dubai creditors to get multiple options -sources

Reuters  Matt Smith and Steven Slater Mar 10, 2010

Analysis

GCC: Absence of a quick recovery

NCB Capital  Mar 10, 2010

News

MENA: Gulf states may slash rates to boost lending

Emirates Business 24/7  Nadim Kawach Mar 10, 2010

News

Saudi Arabia's inflation rises to 4.6% in February

Arabian Business  Neeraj Gangal Mar 10, 2010

Analysis

GCC spending likely to rise 14.4% in 2010

Emirates Business 24/7  Nadim Kawach Mar 10, 2010

Analysis

Economic growth in UAE forecast to double

The National  Tom Arnold Mar 9, 2010

Analysis

MENA: Arab Banks’ Assets Rise to $2.26 Trillion in 2009

Khaleej Times  Isaac John Mar 10, 2010

News

UAE Says It Stands by Dubai, Companies Haven’t Sought Help

Bloomberg  Inal Ersan and Camilla Hall Mar 9, 2010

Analysis

Abu Dhabi, South Korea to boost ties

Emirates Business  Abdel Hai Mohamed Mar 9, 2010

Analysis

Qatar to award QR40bn contracts for five projects

Emirates Business  Karen Remo Mar 10, 2010

Analysis

Saudi to lead long-term growth in region

Emirates Business  Mar 8, 2010

News

UAE eyes foreign ownership law by year-end

Maktoob  Mar 9, 2010

Analysis

Islamic Finance Moves Toward Common Standards

Oxford Analytica  Mar 9, 2010

Analysis

UAE: Price is right for Dubai dream

The National  Mar 8, 2010

Analysis

Kuwait: Reining in Authority

Oxford Business Group  Mar 8, 2010

News

UAE 2009 trade with GCC down at $15.04 billion

Maktoob Business  Mar 9, 2010

Blogs

Abu Dhabi bails out yet another local firm

Arabian Money  Peter Cooper Mar 9, 2010

Analysis

UAE: Dubai World players prepare for final act

The National  Frank Kane Mar 8, 2010

Research

GCC: Insight into the performance of the region's bond markets

Markaz  Rasha A. Othman and Ziad G. Jarjouhi Mar 9, 2010

News

UAE. to Pass Foreign Ownership Law This Year

Bloomberg  Henry Meyer Mar 9, 2010

News

Qatar: Budget surplus is seen at 12% of GDP

Gulf Times  Mar 8, 2010

Analysis

UAE bankruptcy law - A Key to Business Survival

Hadef & Partners  Keith Robinson Mar 8, 2010

Analysis

Oman: India ties

Oxford Business Group  Mar 8, 2010

Analysis

Gulf banks to lag 2010 economic recovery -S&P

Maktoob Business  Mar 8, 2010

Analysis

Oman's economy fell by over 20% in 2009

Emirates Business 24/7  Nadim Kawach Mar 7, 2010

Analysis

UAE is region's top lender

Emirates Business 24/7  Nadim Kawach Mar 8, 2010

Analysis

Dubai World lenders await debt plan

Financial Times  Robin Wigglesworth, And Anousha Sakoui and Simeon Kerr in Dubai Mar 8, 2010

Analysis

Mideast Oil Demand to Grow 4.5% in 2010

Khaleej Times  Isaac John Mar 8, 2010

News

Iran ready to export gas to Bahrain, Oman

The Peninsula  Mar 8, 2010

Analysis

Dubai debt deal expected this week: bankers

Reuters  Mar 8, 2010

News

Saudi Arabia: King approves 20-year job strategy

Arab News  Mohammed Rasooldeen Mar 8, 2010

News

Saudi to further open bourse for foreigners

Maktoob Finance  Mar 6, 2010

News

Dubai Shares Erase Losses as Dubai World Said to Seek Rollover

Bloomberg  Claudia Maedler Mar 8, 2010

Analysis

UAE economy: Cooling

Economist Intelligence Unit  Mar 5, 2010

Analysis

Kuwait politics: Rare harmony

Economist Intelligence Unit  Mar 3, 2010

News

Kuwaiti investments in Syria reach record

Kuwaiti Times  Feb 22, 2010

Analysis

Global :No Easy Exit

Standard Chartered Bank  Mar 5, 2010

Analysis

Qatar Telecom to Invest US$164 mil. in Domestic FTTH

Global Insight  Mar 5, 2010

Analysis

UAE inflation to stay low this year

The National  Tom Arnold Mar 4, 2010

Analysis

UAE: Big banks renegotiate more loans

The National  Uta Harnischfeger Mar 4, 2010

News

UAE deflation eases to 0.3 pct in Jan

Maktoob Business  Tamara Walid and Martin Dokoupil Mar 4, 2010

Analysis

Kuwait: January real estate activity eases after end year strenght

National Bank of Kuwait  Mar 2, 2010

News

Abu Dhabi Companies’ Credit Rating Cut by Moody’s (Update3)

Bloomberg  Haris Anwar and Vivian Salama Mar 4, 2010

Analysis

Sell the UAE banks paying big dividends?

Arabian Money  Peter Cooper Mar 5, 2010

Analysis

Saudi set for strong long-term growth: report

Trade Arabia  Mar 5, 2010

Analysis

Corporate restructuring to soar across Gulf

Maktoob Business  Rajiv Sekhri Mar 5, 2010

Analysis

Abu Dhabi Defends Downgraded Companies

The Wall Street Journal  Nour Malas Mar 4, 2010

Analysis

A lesson in leadership: turning Abu Dhabi's vision into reality

INSEAD Knowledge  Feb 9, 2010

Blogs

Gulf Credit Markets: UAE banks exposure

The Gulf Curve  Mar 1, 2010

News

UAE will Return to Double-digit Budget Surplus

Khaleej Times  Haseeb Haider Mar 4, 2010

News

Dubai: DGCX volume up 146% in February

DGCX Press Release  Mar 4, 2010

News

Saudi banks' income dips 20%

Emirates Business 24/7  Nadim Kawach Mar 4, 2010

News

Standard Chartered declares $10b exposure to UAE loans

Gulf News  Ahmed A. Namatalla Mar 4, 2010

News

Abu Dhabi bill payments would create "more liquidity"

The National  Uta Harnischfeger Mar 4, 2010

News

GCC investor confidence slides in February

Maktoob Business  Mar 3, 2010

Blogs

Hedge funds losing out to much cheaper ETFs in the Gulf

ArabianMoney.net  Peter Cooper Mar 3, 2010

News

Fiscal, monetary policies help Saudi weather crisis

Emirates Business 24/7  Mar 3, 2010

News

Kuwait money supply growth up 10.1% in Jan

Arabian Business  Neeraj Gangal Mar 3, 2010

News

Dubai World strategy 'successful'

Emirates Business 24/7  Mar 3, 2010

Analysis

To tax or not to tax – that is the Dubai question

The National  Frank Kane Mar 3, 2010

News

Dubai World Coughs Up the Knickerbocker

Wall Street Journal  Mar 3, 2010

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