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Gulf Cooperation Council

Macro View

Markets

Finance & Banking

Geostrategic & Long Term Issues

Current Economic Outlook

The onset of the financial crisis and regional slowdown has exposed the divergences across GCC countries in terms of growth patterns and financial vulnerabilities. Despite a regional reliance on hydrocarbon exports, GCC countries varied in their depth of economic diversification, their exposure to international capital markets and their financial and economic buffers. The GCC should be well placed as the global economy recovers, particularly if demand from emerging markets contributes to an increase in demand for oil and oil products. At a price of US$70 per barrel, all countries should be able to balance their budgets and the region as a whole should run a small surplus. As global conditions improve and the demand for exports and commodities picks up, the region’s surpluses will mount again with the rising oil price. With Qatar’s new natural gas pipeline set to open, gas exports are expected to increase by more than 50%. However, surpluses will not be as large as in 2006 and 2007 as more funds are being absorbed domestically. Greater spending on infrastructure will support longer‐term growth.

 

Read the latest RGE Global Economic Update.

RGE Analysis

Abu Dhabi Delivers the Funds: What Next?

By Rachel Ziemba Dec 14, 2009

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Economic Outlook, Q4 2009

Ayah El-Said, Rachel Ziemba Oct 07, 2009

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Economic Outlook, Q3 2009

Ayah El-Said & Rachel Ziemba Jul 24, 2009

GCC Sovereigns: A Little Better Off

Rachel Ziemba Jul 09, 2009

Another Blow to the GCC Monetary Union: The UAE Pulls Out

Ayah el Said and Rachel Ziemba May 20, 2009

Will a "Bad Bank" Provide a Solution to Kuwait's Financial Woes?

Ayah el Said and Rachel Ziemba May 17, 2009

GCC Sovereigns Resort to the Bond Market

Rachel Ziemba and Ayah el Said Mar 31, 2009

GCC Sovereign Funds: Reversal of Fortune

Brad Setser and Rachel Ziemba Jan 31, 2009

GCC Investments: A Change of Fortune

Rachel Ziemba Jan 14, 2009

Saudi 2009 Budget: Deficit-Bound

Rachel Ziemba Dec 29, 2008

The New Saudi Investment Vehicle (SIV)

Rachel Ziemba Apr 28, 2008

Tracking GCC Savings and Borrowings

Rachel Ziemba Apr 27, 2008

EconoMonitors

Europe EconoMonitor

Bank Collapse in Austria Brings Debt in Eastern Europe Center Stage

Edward Harrison Dec 15, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

How Much Unity in the United Arab Emirates?

Michael Moran and Rachel Ziemba Dec 9, 2009

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

Asset Price Co-Movements and the Dollar Carry Trade

Heiko Hesse Dec 4, 2009

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

Wednesday Note - After Dubai

Rachel Ziemba Dec 2, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

CNBC Interview with Arnab Das Discussing Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and India

Arnab Das Nov 30, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Total Eclipse at the Heart of Dubai's World

Edward Hugh Nov 29, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

The Bust in Dubai and Exogenous Shocks

Edward Harrison Nov 29, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Does Dubai Matter? Ask Ireland

Simon Johnson Nov 29, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

What do Istithmar’s Troubles Signal for other Sovereign Investors?

Rachel Ziemba Sep 14, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Ripples of 9/11 Continue 8 Years On

Rachel Ziemba Sep 11, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

OPEC and the Oil Market

Rachel Ziemba Sep 4, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Small Countries, Small Problems?

Syed Basher Aug 27, 2009

Daily Digest

News

Egypt Inflation Probably Steady in January as Bank Holds Rates

Bloomberg  Alaa Shahine Feb 9, 2010

News

U.A.E. Central Bank Sees Bad Loans Increasing to 6.4%

Bloomberg  Vivian Salama Feb 9, 2010

Analysis

Comment: Dubai offered an alternative future

Financial Times  Simeon Kerr Feb 8, 2010

Analysis

Foreign Investors might get full ownership in UAE

Khaleej Times  T. Ramavarman Jan 8, 2010

News

Kuwaiti bourse to lure foreign investment

The National  Sarmad Khan Jan 8, 2010

Analysis

Kuwait Outlook: Neutral

Alpha Dinar  Feb 8, 2010

Analysis

New oilfield find a stroke of good luck for Dubai

ArabianMoney.net  Peter Cooper Feb 6, 2010

Research

Constraints on Trade in the MENA region

IMF  Bhattacharya, Rina, Wolde and Hirut Feb 1, 2010

Analysis

Oman Budget 2010: Continuing Growth and Employment generation

Gulf Baader Capital Management SAOC  Jan 12, 2010

Analysis

The GCC: End of an Eventful Year (FY2009)

Gulf Baader Captial Markets SAOC  Jan 16, 2010

Analysis

Saudi Arabia: Growth Signals

Oxford Business Group  Feb 5, 2010

Analysis

Oman: Recovery Continues

Oxford Business Group  Feb 5, 2010

Analysis

Appendix I - Quantified economy-wide emissions targets for 2020

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change  Feb 5, 2010

News

Qatar’s real estate market maturing: Research

The Peninsula  Jan 4, 2010

News

Oil discovery could change Dubai's fortunes

Maktoob  Feb 4, 2010

Analysis

GCC ICT Sector

Markaz  Jan 31, 2010

News

Mideast still seen as 'attractive' for Western investors

Arabian Business  Claire Ferris-Lay Feb 3, 2010

Analysis

GCC Takaful Industry : Growth Potential

Alpen Capital  Jan 12, 2010

Analysis

GCC Healthcare Industry

Alpen Capital  Sep 1, 2009

Analysis

CEEMEA: Sensitive to Oil...but How Much?

Morgan Stanley  Oliver Weeks, Pasquale Diana and Tevfik Aksoy Feb 3, 2010

News

Bahrain plans unfair dismissal law for private sector

Arabian Business  Elsa Baxter Feb 2, 2010

News

Kuwait approves bourse regulator bill

Maktoob  Jan 1, 1900

Analysis

The Case for GCC Pension Reform: From Sinking to Sustainable

BOOZ & Co.  Richard Shediac and Samer Bohsali Dec 1, 2009

Research

Fiscal Policy in Oil Producing Countries During the Recent Oil Price Cycle

IMF  Mauricio Villafuerte and Pablo Lopez-Murphy Feb 1, 2010

Analysis

Oman: Resilient in the slowdown

Kuwait-China Investment Company  Jan 30, 2010

Analysis

Qatar: A very good outlook

Kuwait-China Investment Company  Feb 2, 2010

Analysis

UAE: Hardest hit in the region

Kuwait-China Investment Company  Jan 30, 2010

Analysis

Bahrain: rebounding but still vulnerable

Kuwait China Investment Company  Jan 30, 2010

News

US deployment raises tensions in the Gulf

Telegraph  Ali Khalil Feb 2, 2010

Analysis

Middle East Review of 2009

Telegraph  Richard Spencer Dec 16, 2009

Analysis

Saudi Strategy 2010: Position for Outperformance

NCB Capital  Eiji Aono Feb 2, 2010

News

Abu Dhabi Will Not Meet 7% Economic Growth Target

Bloomberg  Camilla Hall and Vivian Salama Feb 2, 2010

News

Dubai still top FDI destination - report

Arabian Business  Andrew White Feb 2, 2010

News

Bahrain's Gulf Finance House in debt talks-sources

Reuters  Frederik Richter and Martin de Sa'Pinto Feb 2, 2010

Analysis

Qatar changes tack to boost financial centre

Financial Times  Simeon Kerr Feb 2, 2010

Analysis

Saudi Arabia & Africa: Is There Such a Thing as Agro-Imperialism?

New York Times  Andrew Rice Nov 16, 2009

Analysis

Security Guarantees and Extended Deterrence in the Gulf Region: A European Perspective

Naval Postgraduate School  Bruno Tertrais Dec 1, 2009

News

Bahrain's economy to grow 3-4 pct in 2010

Maktoob  Jan 31, 2010

Analysis

Bahrain: Industrious Kingdom 2010

Oxford Business Group  Feb 1, 2010

News

Expats to invest in UAE markets through funds

The National  Tom Arnold Jan 1, 2010

Analysis

Saudi Arabia: Lessons from the global crisis

Jadwa  Jan 1, 2010

Analysis

Arbitration & mediation in the Arab world: a growing phenomenon

Arab Comment  Nasser Ali Khasawneh and Vicky Sfeir Jan 31, 2010

News

Qatar may help real estate after banks-experts

Reuters  Regan E. Doherty and Jan 31, 2010

Analysis

Qatari LNG to Japan: Actual Status & Future Prospects

Qatargas LNG  Ahmad Al-Khulaifi Nov 1, 2009

News

SMEs in the Middle East: Big gains from growth of small business

Financial Times  Robin Wigglesworth Jan 30, 2010

News

Jadwa funds fly high after turbulence

Financial Times  Robin Wigglesworth Jan 27, 2010

Analysis

MENA House Price Index Q4 2009

Colliers  Jan 1, 2010

RGE Writings

Bremmer-Roubini 2010 Global Forecast

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor  Nouriel Roubini and Ian Bremmer Jan 28, 2010

News

Kuwait economy seen growing 1.8% to 2013

Arabian Business  Jan 28, 2010

Analysis

UAE: Mastering the Education Business

Oxford Business Group  Jan 28, 2010

Analysis

Kuwait: Building Cargo Culture

Oxford Business Group  Jan 28, 2010

Analysis

Oman: Bouncing Back

Oxford Business Group  Jan 28, 2010

Analysis

GCC Debt Market Tracker: A record year closes

NCB Capital  Jan 1, 2010

News

Disorder in the houses of OPEC

The National  Tamsin Carlisle Jan 26, 2010

Analysis

Bahrain: Country Forecast Summary

Economist Intelligence Unit  Jan 26, 2010

Analysis

Bahrain: Country Risk Summary 2010

Economist Intelligence Unit  Jan 26, 2010

Analysis

Bahrain: Outlook for 2010-11

Economist Intelligence Unit  Jan 26, 2010

Analysis

Bahrain: Business Environment at a Glance

Economist Intelligence Unit  Jan 26, 2010

Analysis

Syria: Debate Deadlock

Oxford Business Group  Jan 27, 2010

Analysis

Kingdom of Bahrain Ratings

Islamic International Rating Agency  Feb 21, 2007

Analysis

Bahrain: Doing Business in 2010

The World Bank  Dec 1, 2009

Analysis

Bahrain: Doing Business 2010

The World Bank  Jan 27, 2010

News

Saudi well placed for strong growth in 2010 - Ernst & Young

Arabian Business  Andrew Sambidge Jan 24, 2010

News

GCC to see 'cautious growth' in 2010 - Emirates NBD

Arabian Business  Ed Attwood Jan 25, 2010

News

Saudi takaful growth boosts local bonds

Arabian Business  Frederik Richter Jan 25, 2010

News

Worst is over for GCC banks and economies, says report

Business 24/7  Dec 27, 2009

Analysis

Qatar: Islamic Finance Consolidating

Oxford Business Group  Jan 27, 2010

Analysis

Nomura paints a negative outlook for Gulf equities

ArabianMoney.net  Peter Cooper Jan 26, 2010

Analysis

Dubai debt crisis to hit global sukuk sales - poll

Arabian Business  Liau Y-Sing and Frederik Richter Jan 26, 2010

Analysis

Will Dubai Be a Drag on Gulf Region?

New York Times  Tom Hundley Jan 26, 2010

Analysis

Islamic Finance 2010

International Financial Services London  Jan 26, 2010

Blogs

GCC Interconnection Grid

Curtis Oman  Nov 9, 2009

Analysis

How far will Gulf stock markets follow a global sell-off?

ArabianMoney.net  Peter Cooper Jan 25, 2010

News

Saudi to Hold Rates, Keep Spending to Boost Economy

Bloomberg  Henry Meyer and Camilla Hall Jan 25, 2010

Analysis

MENA: Future looks bright for economies in region

The National  Rupert Wright Jan 25, 2010

News

UAE Doesn’t Expect Federal Bond Issuance for at Least 6 Months

Bloomberg  Vivian Salama Jan 25, 2010

News

Saudi to keep spending to boost economy

Arabian Business  Bloomberg Jan 25, 2010

News

UAE: Stock market recovery helps offset SWF losses

Business 24-7  Nadim Kawach Jan 24, 2010

Analysis

UAE: A Year In Review 2009

Oxford Business Group  Jan 8, 2010

News

Bahraini oil sector to get $15bn investments

Gulf Base  Jan 21, 2010

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