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Hungary

Macro View

Markets

Finance & Banking

Geostrategic & Long Term Issues

Key Indicators

IMF
GDP VOL. (2005=100) - HUNGARY
(INDEX NUMBER)
109.41,109.65,91.01,98.57,101.37 101.37
Consumer Price Index
Total
(Annual percentage changes, NSA)
4.7,5.2,5.6,6.4,5.7 5.7
Employment Statistics
Unemployment Rate
(%, 3-Month Moving Average, NSA)
10.3,10.4,10.5,10.5,3478 3,478
IMF
DISCOUNT RATE (END OF PERIOD) - HUNGARY
(PERCENT PER ANNU)
7.5,7,6.5,6.25,6 6
Balance of Payments
Current Account Balance
(Millions of Euros, SA)
-1865.26,-1883.16,-1711.68,648.35,424.28 424.28
Foreign Trade
Exports - Total
(Millions of Euros, NSA)
4283.4,5629.93,5720.42,5803.63,4896.66 4,896.66
data by Moody's

RGE's Q1 2010 Hungary Outlook

Hungary’s economy will continue to lag behind regional peers in 2010. While the other CE-4 economies (the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia) are likely to post growth, Hungary is headed for another year of contraction. This underperformance trend is a familiar one. Since 2005, the country’s growth dynamics have consistently placed it at the back of the pack. Annual GDP growth averaged 3% in the 2005-2008 period, well below the 7%-plus growth rates posted by regional peers. In October 2008, as capital inflows dried up, Hungary averted a balance-of-payments crisis by securing a €20 billion IMF-led rescue package, but did not avert a deep recession.

The Hungarian economy contracted for six straight quarters through Q3 2009. The government estimates GDP fell 6.7% in 2009. RGE expects GDP will decline 1.0% in 2010, slightly below the government’s forecast of a 0.6% decline, due to anemic domestic demand, ongoing fiscal tightening and a weak export outlook. Risks to the forecast come from...

Read the Q1 2010 Hungary Outlook.

RGE Analysis

EconoMonitors

Europe EconoMonitor

The German Economy Is Essentially "Intact"

Edward Hugh Mar 11, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

What Greece’s Fiscal Crisis Could Mean for Eastern Europe

Mary Stokes and Jelena Vukotic Feb 22, 2010

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

Medicine for Europe’s Sinking South

Nouriel Roubini and Arnab Das Feb 2, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Bremmer-Roubini 2010 Global Forecast

Nouriel Roubini Jan 28, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Hungary isn't another Greece........Now is it?

Edward Hugh Jan 22, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Hungary's Economic Correction Still Fails to Convince

Edward Hugh Dec 29, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

How Much Unity in the United Arab Emirates?

Michael Moran and Rachel Ziemba Dec 9, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Moody’s: Iceland, Latvia and Hungary in “Fragile Stabilization”

Edward Harrison Sep 23, 2009

Europe EconoMonitor

As Hungary's "Correction" Heads For A Dead End, Time For A Change Of Course?

Edward Hugh Sep 21, 2009

Daily Digest

News

Investors see pick up in CEE renewable financing

Reuters  Michael Kahn Mar 12, 2010

News

Hungary opposition party Fidesz releases election agenda

Portfolio.hu (free registration may be required)  Mar 12, 2010

Analysis

CEE Currencies Monthly

InvestKredit/Volksbank  Stephan Imre Mar 12, 2010

Analysis

Czech GDP revised sharply upwards; Polish dovish talk continues

KBC Banking and Insurance  Mar 12, 2010

Analysis

Hungary: CPI slowed to 5.7% y/y in February

ERSTE Bank  Mar 11, 2010

Analysis

Lex: Eastern Europe

Financial Times  Mar 11, 2010

News

Hungary: Crisis exposes cracks in former communists

Financial Times  Chris Bryant Mar 11, 2010

News

Fitch says Hungarian bank sector likely to recover slowly after severe stress test

Portfolio.hu (free registration)  Mar 10, 2010

News

Hungary Q4 09 GDP suggests ongoing, but slow recovery

Portfolio.hu (free registration may be required)  Mar 10, 2010

Analysis

Hungary: January Industrial Output rose 5.7% y/y

ERSTE Bank  Orsolya Nyeste Mar 10, 2010

Analysis

Hungary: GDP declined 4% y/y

ERSTE Bank  Mar 10, 2010

Analysis

Hungarian Bank Sector Likely to Recover Slowly After Severe Stress Test

Fitch Ratings (subscription may be required)  Mar 10, 2010

News

Hungarian Lenders Face ‘Slow’ Recovery, Fitch Says

Bloomberg  Agnes Lovasz Mar 10, 2010

Analysis

Hungary: Industry rose 5.7% y/y in January

ERSTE Bank  Mar 9, 2010

Analysis

Hungary: January Industrial Output

ERSTE Bank  Mar 9, 2010

News

Hungary Fidesz to form fact finding committee, promises 4-yr, 6-yr tax cuts

Portfolio.hu (free registration may be required)  Mar 8, 2010

Analysis

Hungary Monthly Economic Forecast: March 2010

ERSTE Bank  Mar 8, 2010

News

Hungary’s Budget Gap Points to New IMF Goal, Intesa, 4Casts Say

Bloomberg  Zoltan Simon Mar 8, 2010

News

Hungary revises 2009 trade surplus sharply downward

Portfolio.hu (free regisration may be required)  Mar 5, 2010

Analysis

Scrapping bonus expiration to hurt Czechs and Slovaks most

KBC Banking and Insurance  Jan Bures Mar 5, 2010

Research

wiiw Forecast for Central, East and Southeast Europe, 2010-2012: Crisis Is Over, but Problems Loom Ahead

Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies  Mar 5, 2010

News

Hungary budget deficit reaches 40% of full-year target by end Feb

Portfolio.hu (free regisration may be required)  Mar 5, 2010

News

EU Should Help Reveal ‘Truth’ on Hungary, Orban Says

Bloomberg  Zoltan Simon Mar 5, 2010

Analysis

Zloty continues to outperform the region, supported by Hawkish MPC rhetoric

KBC Banking and Insurance  Mar 5, 2010

Analysis

Energy security in Europe: Central questions

Economist  Mar 4, 2010

News

No official talks between IMF and Hungary's Fidesz - IMF Res.Rep.

Portfolio.hu (free registration may be required)  Mar 3, 2010

News

Austrian Central Bank: Eastern European writedowns haven't peaked

Reuters  Boris Groendahl Mar 3, 2010

News

German yes to Polish objections to Nord Stream

Polish Market Online  Mar 3, 2010

News

Hungary's forint is the most attractive EM currency - Credit Suisse

Portfolio.hu (free registration may be required)  Mar 3, 2010

News

Hungary Can Reduce Benchmark Rate to Record 5.5%, Csaki Says

Bloomberg  Zoltan Simon Mar 2, 2010

Analysis

Adriatic Watch: a Must for the European Commission

Jamestown Foundation  Vladimir Socor Mar 2, 2010

Blogs

Political Scientists See Fidesz Facing Hardships, Expect It to Pluck up Courage

Wall Street Journal - New Europe  Veronika Gulyas Mar 1, 2010

News

Hungary should start talks with IMF right after the elections - Fidesz chief economist

Portfolio.hu (free registration may be required)  Mar 1, 2010

Analysis

Recession in Hungary might end after seven quarters

GKI Economic Research Co. & Erste Bank  Mar 1, 2010

Analysis

Hungary economy: Fiscal consolidation--there may be trouble ahead

Economist Intelligence Unit  Mar 1, 2010

News

Eastern European Manufacturing Expansion Accelerates on Exports

Bloomberg  Zoltan Simon Mar 1, 2010

Analysis

CEE currencies weakened on rising tensions in Greece

KBC Banking & Insurance  Feb 26, 2010

News

IMF to go easy on Hungary's Fidesz about deficit target overshoot?

Portfolio.hu (free registration may be required)  Feb 26, 2010

Analysis

EMEA Weekly: South Eastern Europe - the next trouble spot?

Danske Bank  Lars Christensen Feb 26, 2010

News

Hungarian Borrowing Costs May Decline, Borbely Says

Bloomberg  Edith Balazs Feb 26, 2010

News

East Europe for more energy security: Hungary

EU Business  Feb 25, 2010

News

Hungary's retail sales drop for the third year in a row in 2009

Portfolio.hu (free registration may be required)  Feb 24, 2010

News

Hungarian central bank sees inflation easing, but at a slower pace

Portfolio.hu (free registration may be required)  Feb 24, 2010

Analysis

CEE Financial Market Report: Economic Expectations for Central and Eastern Europe Decline

ZEW (Centre for European Economic Research) and Erste Bank  Feb 24, 2010

Blogs

Hungary’s Election Campaign Fails to Give a Miss to Smear

Wall Street Journal  Margit Feher Feb 24, 2010

News

Hungary to Overshoot Budget Deficit Targets, Central Bank Says

Bloomberg  Zoltan Simon Feb 24, 2010

Analysis

CEE - The EMU divergence trade

Danske Bank  Lars Christensen and Pär Magnusson Feb 23, 2010

Analysis

Hungary: It is the last cut, isn't it?

Raiffeisen Research  Feb 23, 2010

Analysis

Hungary: CB cut the base rate by 25bp, to 5.75%

ERSTE Bank  Feb 23, 2010

News

Hungary to Cut Record Rate Once More, Survey Shows

Bloomberg  Zoltan Simon Feb 23, 2010

News

Hungary's Socialists to levy tax on bank chiefs' bonuses

Portfolio.hu (free registration may be required)  Feb 22, 2010

Analysis

CEE Financial Market Report: Economic Expectations for CEE Remain Optimistic

ZEW (Centre for European Economic Research) and Erste Bank  Feb 22, 2010

Analysis

Eastern Europe economy: After Greece, further from the euro

Economist Intelligence Unit  Feb 22, 2010

News

Hungary: central bank sees smaller monetary wiggle room, further rate cuts hinge on risk perceptions

Portfolio.hu (free registration may be required)  Feb 22, 2010

Analysis

Eastern Europe economy: Recovery on thin ice

Economist Intelligence Unit  Feb 22, 2010

News

Hungarians Become More Optimistic, Bolstering Economic Outlook

Bloomberg  Edith Balazs Feb 22, 2010

News

In Hungary, Potential Lessons for Greece

New York Times  Judy Dempsey Feb 19, 2010

Analysis

Press release on the Monetary Council’s meeting of 22 February 2010

National Bank of Hungary  Jan 22, 2010

News

Hungary Cuts Benchmark Interest Rate to Record Low

Bloomberg  Zoltan Simon Feb 22, 2010

News

Hungary c.bank trims rate to historic low

Portfolio.hu  Feb 22, 2010

Analysis

CE-3: Fiscal Check-Up on Central Europe

Morgan Stanely  Pasquale Diana Feb 19, 2010

Analysis

CEEMEA: Greece and CEE – Contagion

Morgan Stanley  Feb 19, 2010

News

Eastern European Investor Confidence Falls as Recovery Falters

Bloomberg  Adam Brown Feb 19, 2010

Analysis

EMEA Weekly: Can the market handle a cold Turkey?

Danske Bank  Feb 18, 2010

Analysis

Hungary: Q1 2010 Outlook

RGE  Mary Stokes Jan 30, 2010

Analysis

Special Report: Fiscal situation in CEE

ERSTE Bank  Feb 18, 2010

Analysis

CESEE Quarterly Q4 2009 – Q1 2010

Volksbank  Jan 29, 2010

Analysis

Hungary in the Hands of Fidesz

Angus Reid Global Monitor  Feb 16, 2010

Analysis

Global Markets February 16, 2010

TD Bank Securities  Millan Mulraine et al Feb 16, 2010

News

Hungary to Miss 2010 Budget-Gap Target, Concorde Says

Bloomberg  Zoltan Simon Feb 17, 2010

News

Hungary Faces Risks to Budget-Deficit Goal, IMF Says

Bloomberg  Edith Balazs and Zoltan Simon Feb 15, 2010

News

Forint Falls Most in Emerging Markets as IMF Sees Deficit Risk

Bloomberg  Piotr Skolimowski Feb 15, 2010

News

Greek Deficit Woes Won’t Halt Euro Area Expansion, Nomura Says

Bloomberg  Ott Ummelas Feb 15, 2010