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India

Macro View

Markets

Finance & Banking

Geostrategic & Long Term Issues

Key Indicators

National Accounts
GDP at factor cost
(10 Mil. 1999/2000 Rupees, NSA)
902924,830555,834986.31,1158764,1205119 1,205,119
Consumer Price Index
Industrial Workers
(Index, 2001=100, NSA)
170,170,170,172,174 174
Central Bank Repo Rate
(%, NSA)
5.75,5.75,5.75,5.75,5.75 5.75
Money Supply
Bank Credit to Commercial Sector
(Crore Rupees, NSA)
3471951,3529930,3558423,3649910,3609929 3,609,929
Balance of Payments
Current Account Balance
($US. Mil, NSA)
4747,-5808,-12625.2,-12030,-12998 -12,998
Share Price Index
India - Bombay Stock Exchange SENSEX Index
(Index, NSA)
18020.05,18077.61,17957.37,17992,17868.29 17,868.29
data by Moody's

RGE's Q3 2010 India Outlook

India’s growth driver has shifted from fiscal and monetary stimulus to private demand. Capital inflows, reviving services and agriculture sector growth and high (though easing) industrial activity, pinned by consumer spending and rising capex, will boost India’s growth to 8.6% in 2010 and 8.5% in 2011. Faster-than-expected rebounds in domestic and foreign investment and private consumption, continued fiscal and structural reforms and infrastructure investment to ease supply-side constraints pose upside risks to growth. Meanwhile, global risk aversion and banking sector risks threaten to dampen portfolio inflows, external borrowings, asset markets and investment.

Read the Q3 2010 India Outlook

RGE Analysis

CROSS ASSET MONTHLY

Credit: Who Gets Their Pound of Flesh?

David Nowakowski Aug 31, 2010

CROSS ASSET MONTHLY

Executive Summary: States of Flux: Stay Risk Averse

Arnab Das Aug 31, 2010

Asia Week Ahead: Growth Concerns Outweigh Inflation Risks

By Arpitha Bykere, Michael Manetta, Mikka Pineda and Adam Wolfe Aug 26, 2010

RGE STRATEGY VIEW

The History of Risk—Correlations, Volatilities and Z-Scores

By David Nowakowski and Natalia Gurushina Aug 25, 2010

Asia Week Ahead: Waxing Inflation, Waning Growth

By Adam Wolfe, Mikka Pineda, Michael Manetta and Arpitha Bykere Aug 12, 2010

Asia Week Ahead: Private Demand an Unlikely Antidote for Export Ailments

By Arpitha Bykere, Adam Wolfe, Michael Manetta and Mikka Pineda Aug 5, 2010

RGE STRATEGY VIEW

Q3 2010 Scenario Analysis: Macroeconomic Factors & Asset Class Investment Implications

By Christian Menegatti, Rachel Ziemba, Arnab Das, Arun Motianey, Gina Sanchez, Natalia Gurushina and David Nowakowski Aug 2, 2010

Asia Week Ahead: Gradual Monetary Tightening to Continue Despite Signs of Slowdown

By Arpitha Bykere, Mikka Pineda, Michael Manetta and Adam Wolfe Jul 22, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Asia/Pacific: Q3 2010 Outlook

By Arpitha Bykere Jul 12, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

India: Q3 2010 Outlook

By Arpitha Bykere Jul 10, 2010

Asia Week Ahead: Central Banks Weigh Tightening With G3 on Hold and Global Growth Slowing

By Arpitha Bykere, Mikka Pineda, Adam Wolfe and Rachel Ziemba Jul 1, 2010

Asia Week Ahead: Vulnerabilities to the EU Are Here to Stay

By Arpitha Bykere and Mikka Pineda Jun 17, 2010

Asia Week Ahead: Regional Divergences in Growth and Inflation Risks

By Arpitha Bykere and Mikka Pineda Jun 10, 2010

Asia Week Ahead: Signs of Easing Growth Challenge Monetary Policy

By Arpitha Bykere, Mikka Pineda, Adam Wolfe and Rachel Ziemba Jun 3, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

India: Q2 2010 Outlook

By Arpitha Bykere Apr 12, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

India: Q1 2010 Outlook

By Arpitha Bykere Jan 30, 2010

Comparing 2010 Growth Forecasts for Major Economies

By Rachel Ziemba, Elisa Parisi-Capone, Christian Menegatti, Arpitha Bykere, Bertrand Delgado and Mikka Pineda Jan 21, 2010

India Economic Outlook, Q4 2009

Arpitha Bykere Oct 7, 2009

Will India Get Back to 9% Growth?

Arpitha Bykere Sep 8, 2009

India Economic Outlook, Q3 2009

Arpitha Bykere Jul 24, 2009

BRICs in the Monitor

RGE Analyst Team Jun 16, 2009

EconoMonitors

Emerging Markets Monitor

BRIC Justice

Walter Molano Sep 1, 2010

Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor

India's Growth Paradox

Arvind Subramanian Aug 19, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Is There a Global Economic Slowdown in the Works?

Edward Hugh Jul 14, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

Window of Opportunity for South Asia

Mohammad Shahidul Islam Jul 12, 2010

Asia EconoMonitor

Continuing the Momentum—Asia’s Updated Economic Outlook

Anoop Singh Jul 12, 2010

Asia EconoMonitor

Hours of Operation of Indian Retail Firms

Ajay Shah Jun 21, 2010

Asia EconoMonitor

Microfinance: Profiting from Poor

Kavaljit Singh May 5, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

Currency Futures: An Example of How India Changes

Ajay Shah Apr 22, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

The Aftermath of the Kyrgyz Revolution - The Lesser Players

John Daly Apr 15, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

Asia in the New Decade

Mohammad Shahidul Islam Apr 12, 2010

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

Optimism over India, but Is It Sustainable?

Nouriel Roubini Apr 8, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Where Is a Spectacular Implosion Most Likely?

Barry Ritholtz Apr 8, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

India, China, and V vs. U

Nouriel Roubini Apr 7, 2010

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

Roubini Discusses Exit Strategies and Growth in Emerging Markets

Nouriel Roubini Apr 2, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

To Catch China, India Needs Human and Physical Capital, Says Dr. Roubini

Nouriel Roubini Mar 31, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

India's Finance Minister Plays It Safe with 2010 Budget

Rajeev Mantri Mar 7, 2010

Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor

Does Russia Belong in the BRICs?

Anders Aslund Jan 25, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

Two BRICs: India vs. Brazil

Rebecca Wilder Jan 10, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Collateral Damage

Nouriel Roubini and Arpitha Bykere Dec 23, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Consequences of Exposure to Violence

Ajay Shah Dec 16, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

India: FDI and Saving are Key....

Rebecca Wilder Dec 8, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

CNBC Interview with Arnab Das Discussing Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and India

Arnab Das Nov 30, 2009

Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor

Dr. Singh of India Comes to Town

Arvind Subramanian Nov 23, 2009

Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor

India: New Letter and Spirit

Arvind Subramanian Nov 12, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Looking back at Indira Gandhi

Ajay Shah Nov 4, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

The Dragon in the Alphabet Soup

Rumi Malott Morales Oct 26, 2009

Asia EconoMonitor

Interpreting Recent Movements of the Rupee-Dollar Rate

Ajay Shah Oct 12, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

The Remarkable Indian Automobile Industry

Ajay Shah Oct 7, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Currency Futures Liquidity ahead of the Forward Market?

Ajay Shah Sep 30, 2009

Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor

Climate Change—Winning the Narrative

Arvind Subramanian Sep 16, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

The Scope of Central Bank Independence, and the Accountability Mechanisms that go with This

Ajay Shah Sep 16, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Will India Get Back to 9% Growth?

Arpitha Bykere Sep 8, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Uncovering the Monetary Policy Rule in India

Nirvikar Singh Aug 31, 2009

Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor

Benefits of More Trade Between South Asian Rivals

Mohsin S. Khan and Steve Weisman Aug 27, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Where is India in Internet adoption?

Ajay Shah Aug 24, 2009

Asia EconoMonitor

Impressive Piece of Work

Ajay Shah Aug 12, 2009

Daily Digest

News

RBI clears debt restructuring for aviation sector

Business Standard  Sep 02, 2010

News

Govt may back mandate for 100% open offer

The Hindu Business Line  K.R. Srivats Sep 02, 2010

News

India may miss $12 bn exports target this year

The Economic Times  Sep 02, 2010

News

FDI in retail to help unorganised sector, create jobs: Sharma

The Economic Times  Sep 02, 2010

News

Sheen wearing off Indian growth

Asia Times  Kunal Kumar Kundu Sep 02, 2010

Blogs

India revises its GDP data

Financial Times (Blogs)  Amy Kazmin Sep 02, 2010

Analysis

Is the TAPI Pipeline Any More Viable Now Than It Was in 2002?

Global Insight  Sep 02, 2010

Analysis

HSBC India Manufacturing PMI: August 2010

HSBC Markit Economics  Sep 01, 2010

News

India trade deficit swells to most in 22 months

The Economic Times  Sep 01, 2010

News

India’s Manufacturing Growth Slowed Last Month, PMI Data Shows

Bloomberg  Kartik Goyal Sep 01, 2010

Analysis

1QFY11 GDP numbers raise serious methodological issues

Kotak Institutional Equities Research  Mridul Saggar and Suvodeep Rakshit Aug 31, 2010

Opinions

India can grow between 8.5% and 9%: Infosys

The Economic Times  Aug 31, 2010

Blogs

Indian GDP: positive but puzzling

Financial Times (blog)  Josh Noble Aug 31, 2010

News

Despite Impressive Growth, Inflation Remains a Concern for India

Seeking Alpha  Elliot Turner Aug 31, 2010

News

India Eyes a Return to 9% Growth as Economy Soars

Jakarta Globe  Vikas Bajaj Aug 31, 2010

Analysis

Estimates of GDP for April-June 2010

India Ministry of Statistics  Aug 31, 2010

News

India's jobs push in Kashmir only part of the solution

Los Angeles Times  Mark Magnier Aug 27, 2010

News

India: Economic reforms in limbo as state polls near

Mint  Sugita Katyal Aug 30, 2010

Opinions

Kashmir on Fire

The American  Apoorva Shah Aug 25, 2010

Analysis

India: India: Receive 1Y, 1Y forward; Interest Rate Strategy

DBS Group Research  Jens Lauschke Aug 27, 2010

Analysis

Fighting Climate Change: Risks to India’s national security

International Politik  Brahma Chellaney August 2010

Opinions

India: Limits to monetary policy

Business Standard  Aug 27, 2010

Opinions

India: Inflation control - Monetary Policy plus dollops of luck

The Hindu Business Line  S. Balakrishnan Aug 26, 2010

News

India to ink FTAs with Japan, Malaysia by year-end

The Economic Times  Aug 26, 2010

News

India: Corporates to welcome 30% cap on tax but increase in MAT rate a dampener

The Economic Times  Sudhir Kapadia Aug 26, 2010

Opinions

India: Very elitist, Ms Usha Thorat

The Economic Times  TK Arun Aug 26, 2010

News

India's Cabinet Approves Cutting Tax Rates to Increase Compliance, Revenue

Bloomberg  Kartik Goyal and Bibhudatta Pradhan Aug 26, 2010

News

Steel Prices May Advance in India as Demand Expands, Steel Authority Says

Bloomberg  Abhishek Shanker Aug 26, 2010

News

India Overtakes Japan in Demand for Oil

Oil and Gas Eurasia  Aug 26, 2010

News

New Delhi eyes reform of banks’ savings rates

Financial Times  James Lamont and Anjli Raval Aug 26, 2010

Analysis

China and India: Those two big outliers; Why have China and India been able to grow so quickly?

VoxEU  Utsav Kumar, Jesus Felipe and Arnelyn Abdon Aug 26, 2010

News

India: Capital inflows may rise, pose a challenge

Business Standard  Aug 25, 2010

News

RBI cautions banks on clients' foreign currency exposure

Business Standard  Aug 25, 2010

News

Active demand-side management needed to check inflation: RBI

Business Standard  Aug 25, 2010

News

Indian Parliament's Lower House Approves Nuclear Bill With Tougher Clauses

Bloomberg  Bibhudatta Pradhan Aug 25, 2010

News

IIP-like index for services output by early 2011

The Economic Times  Aug 24, 2010

News

Rise in asset prices a concern: RBI

The Economic Times  Aug 24, 2010

Opinions

India: How long should rates stay low?

The Hindu Business Line  S. Balakrishnan Aug 24, 2010

News

India: Low interest rates dent RBI's overseas income

Business Standard  Aug 25, 2010

News

Interview with V K Bansal, Morgan Stanley India

Business Standard  Abhineet Kumar Aug 25, 2010

News

Subbarao Says Cooling India Inflation Is Top Priority, Stokes Rate Concern

Bloomberg  Anoop Agrawal and Kartik Goyal Aug 24, 2010

Opinions

India and Pakistan: Besieged Neighbours

Economic 8 & Political Weekly  Aug 21, 2010

News

US matches Indian outsourcing costs

Financial Times  Joe Leahy and James Lamont Aug 17, 2010

Analysis

EIA Country Analysis Brief: India August 2010

Energy Information Administration  Aug 23, 2010

Opinions

India: A policy of extensions

Business Standard  Aug 23, 2010

News

Sharma calls for measured withdrawal of stimulus

The Economic Times  Aug 23, 2010

Opinions

India: Core issues in debt market

The Hindu Business Line\  Aug 23, 2010

Opinions

India: the boom in housing finance

The Hindu Business Line  C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh Aug 23, 2010

News

India's Iron Ore Exports May Drop 38% on Karnataka State Ban, Group Says

Bloomberg  Abhishek Shanker Aug 23, 2010

News

India to See Increased Cotton Demand from Pakistan as Floods Destroy Crop

Bloomberg  Madelene Pearson Aug 23, 2010

Analysis

India’s trade policy changes: languid in face of colossal challenge

Kotak Institutional Equities Research  Mridul Saggar and Suvodeep Rakshit Aug 23, 2010

Analysis

India and China: A Himalayan rivalry

Economist  Aug 19, 2010

Opinions

India infrastructure: The Sacred Cow

MacroScan  Prabhat Patnaik Aug 23, 2010

Analysis

Asia/Oceania Weekly: Aug 20, 2010

Scotiabank Group  Oscar Sánchez Aug 20, 2010

News

India makes a strong pitch to push Indian exports

The Economic Times  Aug 20, 2010

News

RBI policy moving in right direction: ADB

Business Standard  Aug 20, 2010

News

India: Food inflation drops to 10.35%

Business Standard  Aug 20, 2010

Opinions

India's BlackBerry Brouhah

Asia Sentinel  Neeta Lal Aug 20, 2010

Opinions

India: Tread warily on new private banks

The Economic Times  T T Ram Mohan Aug 19, 2010

Opinions

India: Plans that fulfil people's aspirations

The Economic Times  Arun Maira Aug 19, 2010

News

India: Making best use of fiscal comfort

The Hindu Business Line  K. Kanagasabapathy Aug 19, 2010

Opinions

India: Towards inclusive growth?

The Hindu Business Line  Alok Ray Aug 19, 2010

News

India Food Prices Steady

Wall Street Journal  Prasanta Sahu and Anant Vijay Kala Aug 19, 2010

Opinions

China and India: Contest of the century

The Economist  Aug 19, 2010

News

Blackstone plans to double India investments

Channel News Asia  Aug 19, 2010

Opinions

India’s Look East policy: A need to look beyond Singapore

East Asia Forum  Nitin Pai Aug 19, 2010

Opinions

Thinking clearly about inflation

The Economic Times  Arvind Panagariya Aug 18, 2010

News

India: Private equity places big bets on SMEs

Business Standard  Debasis Mohapatra Aug 18, 2010

News

India: Exports rise 13.2% in July, trade deficit widens

Business Standard  Aug 18, 2010

Analysis

India: Managing Inflation in the Post-Crisis Environment

Reserve Bank of India  Subir Gokarn Aug 12, 2010

Analysis

India economy: Ten-year growth outlook

EIU  Aug 17, 2010

Analysis

India economy: Market opportunities

EIU  Aug 17, 2010

News

India: Trade gap widens to $13 bn in July as exports drop

The Economic Times  Aug 17, 2010