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Italy

Macro View

Markets

Finance & Banking

Geostrategic & Long Term Issues

Key Indicators

National Accounts
FOB-FOB Based - Gross Domestic Product, (Millions of 2000 Euros, Working Day Adjusted and SA)
303934,302403,304319,301569,303706 303,706
Consumer Price Index
EU Harmonized General Index
(2005=100, NSA)
109.9,110.9,111,111,110.1 110.1
Labor Force Survey
Unemployment Rate
(Percent. NSA)
7.95,7.35,7.3,8.6,9.08 9.08
Foreign Trade
Exports - World
(Millions of Euros, NSA)
20009.06,25185.85,30136.26,27436.15,28267.91 28,267.91
Interest Rates
Gross yield on fixed rate government bonds - 10 year
(% per annum, NSA)
4.14,4.1,4.1,4.07,4.02 4.02
Contractual Wages
By Industry - Grand Total
(2000 = 100, NSA)
123.6,123.8,123.8,123.9,124.3 124.3
data by Moody's

RGE's Q3 2010 Italy Outlook

Following one quarter of positive growth, Italian GDP recorded a renewed contraction in Q4 2009 in line with RGE’s Q1 2010 outlook. Despite the disappointing performance, RGE expects Italy’s economic recovery process to move forward in 2010, even if the underlying growth momentum remains fragile. RGE confirms its baseline scenario of a prolonged, U-shaped recovery characterized by anemic growth. In light of broad-based weaknesses in the domestic as well as the foreign sector and substantial economic rigidities, which further limited the growth potential, the Italian economy’s recovery prospects appear to be the least promising among the three largest eurozone economies.

Read the Q3 2010 Italy Outlook.

RGE Analysis

CROSS ASSET MONTHLY

Credit: Who Gets Their Pound of Flesh?

David Nowakowski Aug 31, 2010

RGE STRATEGY VIEW

The History of Risk—Correlations, Volatilities and Z-Scores

By David Nowakowski and Natalia Gurushina Aug 25, 2010

RGE STRATEGY VIEW

Don’t Bet the Banks on an EZ Stress Test

By Jennifer Kapila, Elisa Parisi-Capone, Arnab Das and David Nowakowski Aug 12, 2010

RGE STRATEGY VIEW

Q3 2010 Scenario Analysis: Macroeconomic Factors & Asset Class Investment Implications

By Christian Menegatti, Rachel Ziemba, Arnab Das, Arun Motianey, Gina Sanchez, Natalia Gurushina and David Nowakowski Aug 2, 2010

Europe Weekly Spotlight: EZ Corporate Credit Conditions; Inflation Risks in Russia

By Elisa Parisi-Capone, Katharina Jungen, Rachel Ziemba, David Rogovic, Mikko Forss and Jelena Vukotic Jul 30, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Italy: Q3 2010 Outlook

By Katharina Jungen Jul 10, 2010

EZ Rescue Response: Serious at Last?

By Elisa Parisi-Capone, Natalia Gurushina, Arnab Das and Nouriel Roubini May 10, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Italy: Q2 2010 Outlook

By Katharina Jungen Apr 12, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Italy: Q1 2010 Outlook

By Katharina Jungen Jan 30, 2010

Sovereign Debt: The Developed World’s Next Big Problem?

By Arpitha Bykere, Elisa Parisi-Capone, and Katharina Jungen Jan 13, 2010

Italy Economic Outlook, Q4 2009

Christopher Mooney Oct 7, 2009

Italy Economic Outlook, Q3 2009

Christopher Mooney Jul 24, 2009

Growth Differentials in the EMU: Facts and Considerations

Nouriel Roubini, Elisa Parisi-Capone and Christian Menegatti Jun 1, 2007

EconoMonitors

Europe EconoMonitor

Moody’s Cuts Portugal Credit Rating Two Notches to A+

Edward Harrison Jul 13, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Crib Notes for G7 Unemployment Rates

Rebecca Wilder Jul 6, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

GIIPS Labor Costs Not Moving in the "Competitive" Direction

Rebecca Wilder Jun 24, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Wishful Thinking - Part 2

Satyajit Das Jun 17, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

French Connection: The Eurozone Crisis Worsens Sharply

Peter Boone and Simon Johnson Jun 4, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

The Maginot Line Illusion

Peter Boone and Simon Johnson Jun 3, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Germany: Just Another Weak Man of Europe?

Yves Smith May 24, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Financing vs. Restructuring Greece

Paolo Manasse May 21, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Spain Is the Perfect Example of a Country that Never Should Have Joined the Eurozone

Edward Harrison May 17, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Time to Fire up the Chopper, JC

Walter Molano May 10, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

It's Not About Greece Anymore

Peter Boone and Simon Johnson May 6, 2010

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

CNBC - Roubini on the Market Fall

Nouriel Roubini May 6, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Europe's Web of Debt

Barry Ritholtz May 6, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

John Taylor: "Dead Man Walking...The Euro Is Finished"

Tyler Durden May 6, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

The Escalating Greek Debt Crisis: What Has Been Happening and Where Is It Going?

Michael Arghyrou and John Tsoukalas May 6, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Greece, Germany, and the Dangers of Beggar Thy Neighbor

Yves Smith May 5, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

RGE Wednesday Note: Greek Contagion Spreads—Time for Plan B

Elisa Parisi-Capone May 5, 2010

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

Roubini Concerns About the Future of the EMU - World Economic Forum, Davos, 2006

Nouriel Roubini May 5, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Giving Reform a Chance

Models & Agents May 3, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Greece – GIIPS – Eurozone - Big Problem

Rebecca Wilder Apr 28, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Italy’s Looming Political Crisis: Dancing Under the (Debt) Volcano

Paolo Manasse Apr 23, 2010

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

The Debt Death Trap

Nouriel Roubini Apr 20, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

The Debt Implications of Berlusconi’s “Pyrrhic” Victory

Paolo Manasse Apr 1, 2010

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

RGE's Wednesday Note - No Greece in the American Machine

Arpitha Bykere, Arnab Das, Christian Menegatti and Arun Motianey Mar 24, 2010

Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor

The Greek Tragedy That Changed Europe

Simon Johnson Mar 8, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Hanging in the Balance over at the ECB

Edward Hugh Mar 7, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Euro, Au Revoir? PIIGS’ Term Structure of Default Probabilities

Paolo Manasse Feb 23, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

European Hangover

Walter Molano Feb 17, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Just what is the Real Level of Government Debt in Europe?

Edward Hugh Feb 16, 2010

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

Teaching PIIGS to Fly

Nouriel Roubini Feb 16, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

The New Banana Republics

Antonio Carlos Lemgruber Feb 11, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Insolvent European vs American States

Barry Ritholtz Feb 10, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Reigniting Growth in Emerging Europe

Marek Belka Feb 10, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

How Far Will the PIIGS Fly?

Paolo Manasse Feb 10, 2010

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

Roubini Bloomberg Interview on Sovereign Debt and U.S. Outlook

Nouriel Roubini Feb 6, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Bond Markets Soaking up Greece

Rebecca Wilder Jan 25, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

National Saving Rates Across Europe: Diverse

Rebecca Wilder Jan 24, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

The Italian Lion Sleeps Tonight, and Yet Awhile..........

Edward Hugh Jan 20, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

The Minister's Ceiling to "Foreign Born" Students in Italian Schools

Paolo Manasse Jan 14, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

A Decade to Tip the World to the East

David Smith Jan 5, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Bank Collapse in Austria Brings Debt in Eastern Europe Center Stage

Edward Harrison Dec 15, 2009

Europe EconoMonitor

Italy vs. Greece: The Public Debt Race

Paolo Manasse Dec 15, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Savings Gluts and Bubbles

Mark Thoma Dec 4, 2009

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

Roubini Global Economics – Holiday Season Kick-off: North America and Europe Retail Sales

RGE Analyst Team Nov 25, 2009

Europe EconoMonitor

Just How Much of a Eurozone Rebound Really Was There in Q3?

Edward Hugh Nov 17, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

RGE Monitor - Q2 Performance in Western Europe

Elisa Parisi-Capone and Chris Mooney Sep 2, 2009

Europe EconoMonitor

Berlusconi: Private Leisure and Public Costs of the “Sultan of Swing”

Paolo Manasse Aug 25, 2009

Daily Digest

Analysis

Euro area growth: looking surprisingly good for now

JPMorgan  David Mackie and Nicola Mai Sep 02, 2010

Analysis

The autumn promises to be turbulent!

Natixis  Sep 02, 2010

News

EU May Limit Naked Shorts of Stocks, Government Debt

Bloomberg  Ben Moshinsky Sep 02, 2010

Analysis

Moving Public Debt onto a Sustainable Path

IMF  Sep 01, 2010

Research

Default in Today’s Advanced Economies: Unnecessary, Undesirable, and Unlikely

IMF  Paolo Mauro, Carlo Cottarelli, Lorenzo Forni and Jan Gottschalk Sep 01, 2010

Research

Fiscal Space

IMF  Atish R. Ghosh, Jonathan D. Ostry, Jun I. Kim and Mahvash S. Qureshi Sep 01, 2010

Blogs

The solution to all the ECB’s problems, by Goldman Sachs

FT Alphaville  Tracy Alloway Sep 01, 2010

News

Italy’s fading bella figura

FT  Aug 31, 2010

News

Italy’s hot autumn

FT  Aug 30, 2010

News

Qaddafi Brings 30 Horses, Business Deals to Italy

Bloomberg  Steve Scherer Aug 30, 2010

News

In August €-coin holds mainly stable

Bank of Italy / CEPR  Aug 27, 2010

Research

The Euro-Project at Risk

Indiana University  Andreas Hauskrecht, Wilhelm Hankel and Bryan Stuart July 2010

News

Roman Circus

Wall Street Journal  Aug 25, 2010

News

Early Vote Looms in Italy as Party Discord Deepens

Wall Street Journal  Christopher Emsden Aug 25, 2010

Analysis

How Germany's Export Strength Helps its Neighbors

Spiegel online  Christian Reiermann Aug 24, 2010

Opinions

EU's Olli Rehn Discusses Economic Outlook, Bank Stress Tests

Bloomberg Audio/Video Report  Aug 24, 2010

Analysis

Berlusconi's gambit

Economist  Aug 24, 2010

Analysis

A very Italian political summer crisis / ECB exit strategy

Eurointelligence  Aug 23, 2010

News

Early Italian election draws closerf

FT  Aug 23, 2010

News

Construction output up by 2.7% in euro area

Eurostat  Aug 18, 2010

Analysis

Euro area balance of payments in June 2010

ECB  Aug 18, 2010

News

EU loses high-tech case at WTO

EuropeanVoice  Aug 17, 2010

Analysis

National fiscal governance reforms across EU Member State

European Commission  Aug 17, 2010

Blogs

Banks’ exposure to Italy dwarfs risk from PIGS

Money Supply, Financial Times  Emma Saunders Aug 13, 2010

Blogs

Grecian Derivative: European Budget Deficit Window Dressing

naked capitalism  Satyajit Das Aug 15, 2010

Opinions

Ireland can withstand the euro's ordeal by fire, but can Southern Europe?

Telegraph  Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Aug 15, 2010

News

Euro area and EU27 GDP up by 1.0%

Eurostat  Aug 13, 2010

Analysis

ECB Monthly Bulletin, August 2010

ECB  Aug 12, 2010

News

Euro Rescue Fund Can Sell Debt After Italy’s Approval

Bloomberg  Jeffrey Donovan Aug 11, 2010

News

EU's $580 Billion Safety Fund up and Running

Reuters  Aug 11, 2010

News

Brussels proposes ‘eurotaxes’ to fund EU

Financial Times  Stanley Pignal Aug 10, 2010

News

Political Revolt in Italy: Berlusconi's Long Hot Summer

Spiegel online  Aug 10, 2010

News

Berlusconi's Long Hot Summer

Spiegel online  Aug 10, 2010

News

Commission to present options for EU tax

EuropeanVoice.com  Simon Taylor Aug 09, 2010

Analysis

Italy politics: Finished?

EIU  Aug 09, 2010

News

FOCUS: Italy Set For Growth As It Stays Out Of Spotlight

Wall Street Journal  Aug 05, 2010

News

Italy seizes EUR 700m in assets in EU fund fraud

EU Business  Aug 06, 2010

News

Berlusconi Warns of Early Election

Wall Street Journal  Christina Passariello and Margherita Stancati Aug 06, 2010

Analysis

Introductory statement, August 5, 2010

ECB  Aug 05, 2010

News

The nearing end of a buffoon

Eurointelligence  Aug 05, 2010

News

EU Monetary policy decisions

ECB  Aug 05, 2010

News

Poll gamble nearer for Berlusconi

FT  Aug 05, 2010

News

Italy's Leader Prevails in Crucial Test Of Coalition

Wall Street Journal  Christina Passariello and Margherita Stancati Aug 05, 2010

News

Berlusconi Looks Set to Survive Political Crisis

Wall Street Journal  Christina Passariello and Margherita Stancati Aug 04, 2010

Research

The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area

Bank of Italy  Massimiliano Pisani, Pascal Jacquinot and Sandra Gomes Aug 03, 2010

News

Is Italy Too Italian?

NYT  Aug 03, 2010

News

Berlusconi faces crunch vote

FT  Aug 03, 2010

News

Vote to Test Italy's Premier

Wall Street Journal  Christina Passariello and Margherita Stancati Aug 03, 2010

Opinions

Italy trapped in slow lane as political crisis deepens

Telegraph  Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Aug 02, 2010

Analysis

From Taxis to Textiles, Italy Chooses Tradition Over Growth

New York Times  David Segal Jul 30, 2010

Opinions

Italy: Youth Without Work

Project Syndicate  Edoardo Campanella Jul 14, 2010

News

Dispute Threatens Italy's Ruling Party

Wall Street Journal  Margherita Stancati Jul 31, 2010

Blogs

Berlusconi: Is he out, or still half-in?

Economist  Aug 02, 2010

Research

The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis

IMF  Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti and Philip R. Lane Jul 31, 2010

News

Berlusconi Is No Mobster

Wall Street Journal  Giulio Meotti Jul 30, 2010

News

Italy Biz Confidence Ticks Higher And Slows Rate Of Gain

Haver Analytics  Robert Brusca Jul 29, 2010

News

Italy in political turmoil as Berlusconi party implodes

Reuters  Philip Pullella Jul 30, 2010

News

Berlusconi's Party Censures Lower House Speaker

Wall Street Journal  Margherita Stancati Jul 29, 2010

Analysis

Banks to prepare for eurozone exit scenarios

Eurointelligence  Jul 29, 2010

News

Italian Bond Sale a Success

Wall Street Journal  Emese Bartha Jul 29, 2010

Analysis

Macro structural bottlenecks to growth in EU Member States

European Commission  Jul 27, 2010

News

Too Cash-Strapped for a Boom: How Italy's Permanent Crisis Saved It from the Downturn

Spiegel  Fiona Ehlers, Marc Hujer and Beat Balzli Jul 27, 2010

News

Berlusconi says Fiat free to move to Serbia

Financial Times  Guy Dinmore Jul 26, 2010

Analysis

EU Stress Tests: Too Good To Be True?

BNP Paribas  Luigi Speranza Jul 26, 2010

Analysis

Eurozone: Stressing Time

BNP Paribas  Ken Wattret Jul 22, 2010

Research

EU fiscal consolidation after the financial crisis: Lessons from past experience

European Commission  Salvador Barrios, Sven Langedijk and Lucio Pench Jul 22, 2010