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Japan

Macro View

Markets

Finance & Banking

Geostrategic & Long Term Issues

Key Indicators

Machinery Orders
Private Sector - Exc. Volatile orders
(Mil. Yen, SA)
738023,704549,625253,751226,723783 723,783
Household Expenditure Survey
All Households - Living Expenditure
(Real Index, 2005=100, Seasonally Adjusted)
97.1,97.8,97.9,98.9,96.6 96.6
Consumer Price Index
Total excluding fresh food
(SA; 2005=100)
100,99.8,99.8,99.7,99.6 99.6
Foreign Trade - Exports
(Mil. Yen, SA)
4564509,4998537,5163964,5867740,0 0
Labor Force Survey
Population of 15 Years Old or More - Total
(Ten Ths. Persons, NSA)
11053,11055,11055,11050,11047 11,047
National Government Debt
Total
(100 Mil. Yen, NSA)
8699632,8645226,8694778,8804164,8715104 8,715,104
data by Moody's

RGE's Q1 2010 Japan Outlook

Japan’s Lost Decades are not over yet. Though annual real Japanese GDP growth will turn mildly positive at 0.8%-1.2% in 2010 thanks to strong base effects and Japan's sensitivity to exports, conditions on the ground will remain a far cry from Japan's pre-1990 glory days. Moreover, ongoing deflation means nominal GDP will continue to contract.

Balance sheet adjustments by consumers and banks will continue to hamper export demand from the U.S. and Europe (via emerging Asia), while consumers in Japan will struggle with falling incomes, high unemployment and the ongoing need to save as the social security system buckles under the swelling mass of retiring baby boomers. Other than flashy year-over-year export growth figures, Japan's recovery will be a technical bounce at most.

As RGE expected, Japan's real GDP growth hit a pothole in the second half of 2009 once inventory restocking and fiscal stimulus effects...

Read the Q1 2010 Japan Outlook.

RGE Analysis

Japan: Q1 2010 Outlook

By Mikka Pineda Jan 30, 2010

Comparing 2010 Growth Forecasts for Major Economies

By Rachel Ziemba, Elisa Parisi-Capone, Christian Menegatti, Arpitha Bykere, Bertrand Delgado and Mikka Pineda Jan 21, 2010

Sovereign Debt: The Developed World’s Next Big Problem?

By Arpitha Bykere, Elisa Parisi-Capone, and Katharina Jungen Jan 13, 2010

Carry Trade Hotspots: A Currency by Currency Forecast for 2010

By Mikka Pineda, Mary Stokes, Bertrand Delgado, Mikko Forss, Kavitha Cherian, Arpitha Bykere and Christian Menegatti Jan 04, 2010

Come to Mother: An RGE Strategy for the 2010 Carry Trade

Arnab Das, Natalia Gurushina, Jennifer Kapila, Elisa Parisi-Capone Jan 04, 2010

RGE Currency Outlook: The Japanese Yen

By Mikka Pineda Jan 01, 2010

The Rising Sun also Sets

Michael Moran Oct 07, 2009

Japan Economic Outlook, Q4 2009

Mikka Pineda Oct 07, 2009

Comparing Three Crises

Mikka Pineda Sep 09, 2009

A New Deal

Mikka Pineda Aug 08, 2009

Japan Economic Outlook, Q3 2009

Mikka Pineda Jul 24, 2009

Can Japan Avoid Another Lost Decade?

Mikka Pineda Jul 22, 2009

Accrual Accounting for Governments

Mikka Pineda Oct 16, 2007

EconoMonitors

US EconoMonitor

The Mindset Will Not Change; a Depressionary Relapse May Be Coming

Edward Harrison Mar 15, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Vola-geddon

Models & Agents Mar 9, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

Stuck in Neutral – What Japan’s Rebalancing Can Teach Us

Michael Pettis Mar 4, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

The Greek Job

Satyajit Das Mar 4, 2010

Asia EconoMonitor

Japan: GDP - Exports - Manufacturing - Autos - Toyota

Rebecca Wilder Feb 24, 2010

Finance & Markets Monitor

The Swedish Banking Crisis Response or the Bailout Hustle?

Edward Harrison Feb 22, 2010

US EconoMonitor

Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasuries: Was It Really That Bad? No.

Rebecca Wilder Feb 17, 2010

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

Roubini CNBC Squawk Box Interviews and Report on Sovereign Debt and Global Growth

Nouriel Roubini Feb 13, 2010

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

Roubini Bloomberg Interview on Sovereign Debt and U.S. Outlook

Nouriel Roubini Feb 6, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Bremmer-Roubini 2010 Global Forecast

Nouriel Roubini Jan 28, 2010

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

Roubini Bloomberg Video and Report from the Asian Financial Forum in Hong Kong

Nouriel Roubini Jan 22, 2010

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

The Risky Rich

Nouriel Roubini Jan 18, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Double-Dip Worries In Japan and Germany

Edward Hugh Jan 14, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

RGE's Wednesday Note - Sovereign Debt: The Developed World’s Next Big Problem?

Arpitha Bykere Jan 13, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

A Decade to Tip the World to the East

David Smith Jan 5, 2010

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

Why Japan Needs a 'Hatobama'

Nouriel Roubini Dec 31, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

The Prospects for Global Imbalances: A View from the IMF

Menzie Chinn Dec 28, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Economy Slowly Improving but Risks Posed by Weak Employment and Tight Credit Remain

John Graham and Kate O'Sullivan Dec 18, 2009

Asia EconoMonitor

Japan’s Growth Embarrassingly Revised Down by 3.5%

Edward Harrison Dec 9, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Double Dip Alert in Japan

Edward Hugh Dec 9, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Global Growth Forecasts - Seeing is Believing?

Claus Vistesen Dec 9, 2009

Europe EconoMonitor

Quantitative Easing is Not the Cure to What Ails Europe

Edward Harrison Dec 3, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Parallels Between US and Japanese Economies

Edward Harrison Nov 12, 2009

US EconoMonitor

If the Fed is Looking to Inflate Away Problems, What Should Asia Do?

Edward Harrison Nov 11, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

The Dragon in the Alphabet Soup

Rumi Malott Morales Oct 26, 2009

US EconoMonitor

The Rising Sun also Sets

Michael Moran Oct 7, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

The July TIC Data: In for the Long Term?

Rachel Ziemba Sep 16, 2009

US EconoMonitor

Doddling Forward

Rumi Malott Morales Sep 11, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Comparing Three Crises

Mikka Pineda Sep 9, 2009

Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor

Is There an Economic Alternative?

Adam S. Posen Sep 8, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Industrial Production Coming Back, But....

Rebecca Wilder Sep 1, 2009

Asia EconoMonitor

Japan Emerges From Recession, but the Slump Continues

Edward Hugh Aug 18, 2009

US EconoMonitor

Leading Indicators: Key Economies and the BRICs

Menzie Chinn Aug 17, 2009

US EconoMonitor

Weak Consumer Spending Will Last for Years

Edward Harrison Aug 17, 2009

Daily Digest

News

Japan’s 5-Year Notes Rise a 2nd Day on View BOJ to Ease Policy

Bloomberg  Yasuhiko Seki Mar 16, 2010

Blogs

Why allocators need to take Japan seriously

Citywire  Tom Elliott Mar 16, 2010

Blogs

Japan's Bumblebee Moment May Be Over

Seeking Alpha  Claus Vistesen Mar 16, 2010

Analysis

Global Markets March 11, 2010

TD Bank Securities  Richard Kelly et al Mar 11, 2010

News

Northeast Asia May Get Above-Average Rainfall in Monsoon Season

Bloomberg  Yu-huay Sun Mar 16, 2010

Analysis

Hatoyama Govt Stumbling at 6th Month Anniversary - Can its Fortunes be Reversed?

Mitsubishi UFJ  Naomi Hasagawa Mar 16, 2010

Analysis

Japan Retail Sales Hit Some Highlights

Haver Analytics  Mar 15, 2010

News

Japan, Australia to launch joint coal-to-gas project

Oil & Gas Journal  Eric Watkins Mar 15, 2010

News

Dollar May Rise ‘Substantially’ Against Yen After BOJ, UBS Says

Bloomberg  Daniel Tilles Mar 15, 2010

News

Japan faces rocky path to emissions trading system

Reuters  Chisa Fujioka Mar 12, 2010

News

Japan Cap-and-Trade Bill Approved by Cabinet, Heads for Diet

BusinessWeek  Shigeru Sato and Takashi Hirokawa Mar 11, 2010

Analysis

Asia Weekly Observatory

BBVA  Ramón de la Rocha and Ricard Torne Mar 15, 2010

Analysis

Japan FY09 Growth Forecast Lowered on Downward Revision to Q4 GDP

Mitsubishi UFJ  Tetsurou Sawano Mar 15, 2010

News

Three possible outcomes of the BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting

Mitsubishi UFJ  Naomi Hasagawa Mar 15, 2010

News

Japan’s Consumer Confidence Rises for Second Month

Business Week  Aki Ito Mar 15, 2010

Blogs

The Contrarian Case for Japan

Japan Investor  Mar 15, 2010

News

BOJ Easing Will Fail to Help Money Market, Central Tanshi Says

Bloomberg  Saburo Funabiki Mar 15, 2010

News

Japan’s 5-Year Notes Gain on Prospect BOJ Will Boost Liquidity

Bloomberg  Yasuhiko Seki Mar 15, 2010

Analysis

Monthly Economic Report- february 2010: OUTLOOK FOR 2010

Societe Generale  Mar 12, 2010

Analysis

The new Japanese consumer

McKinsey and Company (free registration required)  Brian Salsberg Mar 1, 2010

Analysis

Yen Carry Trade is Back!

Forex Blog  Mar 12, 2010

News

Japanese Stocks Rise on Yen Optimism; Mitsubishi Chemical Jumps

Bloomberg  Masaki Kondo Mar 12, 2010

News

Japan’s Bonds Fall, Complete 2nd Weekly Drop, on Rising Stocks

Bloomberg  Theresa Barraclough Mar 12, 2010

News

Yen to Drop to 100 as Deflation Spurs BOJ to Add Cash, CIB Says

Bloomberg  Theresa Barraclough Mar 12, 2010

News

Japan Is Increasingly Likely to Sell Yen, Morgan Stanley Says

Bloomberg  Ron Harui Mar 12, 2010

News

Dollar, Yen Fall as Investors Seek Higher-Yielding Currencies

Bloomberg  Inyoung Hwang et al Mar 12, 2010

Analysis

All Eyes on "Exit Strategy" from Current Chinese Monetary Policy

Mitsubishi UFJ  Shuji Tonouchi Mar 12, 2010

News

Japan, Australia Bond Risk Falls, Credit-Default Prices Show

Bloomberg  Katrina Nicholas Mar 12, 2010

News

Japan PM calls for 'firm steps' against strong yen

Agence France-Presse  Mar 12, 2010

Analysis

Revised Report on Indices of Industrial Production (January 2010)

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry  Mar 12, 2010

News

Japanese trading costs fall by a third in January

Asian Investor  Cate Rocchi Mar 12, 2010

Opinions

Yen Carry Trade Back in Play

Oanda Forex Blog  Scott Boyd Jan 19, 2010

Opinions

The Silver Lining to the Debt Crisis

barrons.com  Mar 9, 2010

News

Japan confirms strength of cyclical recovery

Financial Times  Michiyo Nakamoto Mar 11, 2010

Analysis

Japan: Running out of fiscal rope?

Australian Export Finance & Insurance Corporation  Roger Donnelly and Dougal Crawford Mar 11, 2010

Analysis

Asian export boom reaches new peak in February

Markit Group   Chris Williamson Mar 11, 2010

Analysis

Japan’s GDP Still Up Sharply But Less Than Before Revision

Haver Analytics  Louise Curley Mar 11, 2010

News

Japan's Slashed 4Q GDP Means Hyperinflationary Policy Is Now Far More Plausible

Business Insider  Vincent Fernando Mar 11, 2010

Analysis

Economic Markets Strategy 2Q 2010

DBS  Mar 11, 2010

Blogs

The long wave of government debt

VoxEU  Andrew Scott Mar 11, 2010

Analysis

Post-Crisis Industrial Policies: Facilitation of corporate metabolism should be the target

Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry  Naoyuki Yoshino Mar 11, 2010

Analysis

History of Government-BoJ Dispute over Inflation Targeting

Mitsubishi UFJ  Naomi Hasagawa Mar 11, 2010

News

Japan’s Note Yields May Fall to Six-Year Low, Chuo Mitsui Says

Bloomberg  Nobuyuki Akama Mar 11, 2010

News

Japan’s Economy Grows 3.8%, Less Than First Estimated

Bloomberg  Keiko Ujikane Mar 10, 2010

Analysis

Japan: recovery continues, but near-term slowdown likely

J.P. Morgan  Masamichi Adachi Mar 5, 2010

Analysis

Examining the recovery of Japanese consumption

J.P. Morgan  Masaaki Kanno and Miwako Nakamura Mar 5, 2010

Analysis

Smart grid spending powers ahead in Asia

Reuters  Cho Mee-young and Leonora Walet Mar 8, 2010

Opinions

Race to the bottom with G4 currency rhetoric

Reuters  Mike Dolan Mar 10, 2010

News

Japan’s 5-Year Yields Rise From This Year’s Low Before Auction

Bloomberg  Theresa Barraclough Mar 10, 2010

News

Bank of America Cuts Yen Target, Citing Kan’s Resolve

Bloomberg  Ron Harui Mar 10, 2010

News

Yen Falls Against High-Yield Currencies as Chinese Exports Rise

Bloomberg  Ben Levisohn Mar 10, 2010

News

Japan’s Producer Prices Tumble as Deflation Persists

Bloomberg  Mayumi Otsuma and Aki Ito Mar 10, 2010

News

Buy Ringgit Versus Won, Yen on Rate Outlook, RBS Says

Bloomberg  David Yong Mar 10, 2010

Analysis

Orders Received for Machinery in January, 2010

Cabinet Office  Mar 10, 2010

Opinions

No easy solutions for U.S., Japan to revive economies

Japan Times  Takashi Kitazume Mar 10, 2010

News

BOJ’s Suda Says Upside, Downside Risks for Growth Are Balanced

Bloomberg  Mayumi Otsuma Mar 10, 2010

News

Seismic Activity in Japanese Commodity Markets

Seeking Alpha  Feb 26, 2010

News

Japan to introduce 24 hr commodity trading

commodityonline.com  Feb 16, 2010

Analysis

Characteristics of Japan's Commodities Index and its Correlation with Stock Index

Munich Personal Repec Archive  Yamori and Nobuyoshi Sep 7, 2009

Opinions

Earthquake in Japanese Commodity Markets

The Market Oracle  Feb 28, 2010

Blogs

Notes from the (cyber) road: Japan

Council for Foreign Relations  Adam Segal Mar 9, 2010

Analysis

Japan Deflation Battle to Push Yen Lower Versus Rivals

Wall Street Journal  Mar 8, 2010

News

Japan’s Bonds Rise as Lowest Sale Price Beats Dealer Forecasts

Bloomberg  Theresa Barraclough Mar 9, 2010

Analysis

Japan edges from America towards China

Financial Times  Gideon Rachman Mar 9, 2010

News

Yen Advances as Fitch Outlook on Greece Damps Demand for Risk

Bloomberg  Ben Levisohn Mar 9, 2010

Blogs

Following Up On The Japan Disaster Scenario

Zero Hedge  Tyler Durden Mar 9, 2010

Analysis

Japan's Economic Outlook: Examining Downside Risks to the World Economy

Daiwa Institute  Mitsumaru Kumagai and Hiroshi Watanabe et al Feb 25, 2010

Analysis

JP: Money Growth Slows, Loan Demand Remains Weak

Mitsubishi UFJ  Shuji Tonouchi Mar 9, 2010

Analysis

Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy - March 2010

Japan Research Institute  Mar 9, 2010