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RGE's Q2 2010 Eurozone Outlook

RGE's improved outlook is mostly concentrated in the manufacturing sector, where industrial production data for January and February registered a welcome bounce-back in line with the soaring PMIs. The March PMI reading finally crossed the 50 threshold although the hard data continue to disappoint. New orders for January are mixed, with only Germany clearly profiting from the improved external environment among the large economies. The effective euro depreciation of about 6% since H2 2009 will allow the eurozone, driven by Germany, to participate more comprehensively in strong world growth momentum through improved exports.

Manufacturing activity, however, accounts for only about 18% in the eurozone and the outlook for services, which are mostly driven by domestic demand, is much more subdued. Indeed, retail sales continue to decline and new car registrations have been slowing down sharply in view of the gradual phasing out of car scrappage schemes across different eurozone countries.

Read the Q2 2010 Eurozone Outlook

Daily Digest

Analysis

European Economic Forecast - spring 2010

EU Commission  May 05, 2010

Analysis

Monthly Bulletin, April 2010

ECB  Apr 15, 2010

Analysis

Challenges Facing European Monetary Union

Centre for European Policy Studies  D. Gros, T. Mayer, U. Häde, J. Pisani-Ferry, A. Sapir, J. Matthes, D. Mabbett, W. Schelkle, W. Kösters, P. Grauwe and D. Lachman Apr 14, 2010

Analysis

Business and Consumer Survey Results - March 2010

European Commission  Mar 29, 2010

RGE Writings

Bremmer-Roubini 2010 Global Forecast

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor  Nouriel Roubini and Ian Bremmer Jan 28, 2010

Analysis

ECB Financial Stability Review: A Few Comments

BNP Paribas  Luigi Speranza Dec 21, 2009

Analysis

Eurozone Exits Recession with GDP Growth of 0.4% in Q3

Global Insight  Nov 13, 2009

News

Eurozone jobless rate to rise into 2011: EU

EU Business  Nov 03, 2009

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