Mexico

RGE's Q1 2010 Mexico Outlook

The main risks to Mexico’s outlook are a “W”-shaped business cycle in the U.S., which RGE assigns a 25% probability, and continuous decline in oil output. Meanwhile, lack of structural reforms, especially those related to improving competitiveness in key sectors of the economy (energy and telecommunications), will keep potential growth low and consign Mexico’s economy to continued dependence on consumption patterns north of the border.

Mexico exited recession in Q3 2009 by growing 2.9% q/q on a seasonally adjusted basis (s.a.), but it contracted 6.2% y/y on non-seasonally adjusted basis (n.s.a). In Q3 2009, most components of aggregate demand and supply showed signs of improvement as the economy worked off the negative impact of the swine flu scare and a calendar effect...

Read the Q1 2010 Mexico Outlook.