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Mexico

Macro View

Markets

Finance & Banking

Geostrategic & Long Term Issues

Key Indicators

Economic Activity Index
(2003=100, SA)
109.03,110.68,110.83,113.02,114.27 114.27
Consumer Price Index - Total
INPC
(Index 2002Q2 = 100, NSA)
137.26,137.97,138.54,140.05,140.86 140.86
Foreign Trade
Balance
(Million Dollars, NSA)
-1074.65,96.3,-195.2,-248.2,-332.6 -332.6
Industrial Production
Total
(2003 = 100, SA)
105.6,106.99,108.43,109.71,109.56 109.56
28 Days Interbank Equilibrium Rate [TIIE]
(Percent, NSA)
4.92,4.92,4.92,4.91,4.9 4.9
Consumer Survey
Consumer Confidence Index
(January 2003=100, NSA)
77,78.2,80.1,82.1,80.6 80.6
data by Moody's

RGE's Q1 2010 Mexico Outlook

The main risks to Mexico’s outlook are a “W”-shaped business cycle in the U.S., which RGE assigns a 25% probability, and continuous decline in oil output. Meanwhile, lack of structural reforms, especially those related to improving competitiveness in key sectors of the economy (energy and telecommunications), will keep potential growth low and consign Mexico’s economy to continued dependence on consumption patterns north of the border.

Mexico exited recession in Q3 2009 by growing 2.9% q/q on a seasonally adjusted basis (s.a.), but it contracted 6.2% y/y on non-seasonally adjusted basis (n.s.a). In Q3 2009, most components of aggregate demand and supply showed signs of improvement as the economy worked off the negative impact of the swine flu scare and a calendar effect...

Read the Q1 2010 Mexico Outlook.

 

 

 

 

 

RGE Analysis

LatAm: Brazil Strides Forward, Chile Treads with Caution

By Bertrand Delgado and Juan Lorenzo Maldonado Mar 11, 2010

LatAm: Waiting on Hikes and Surveying Quake Damage

By Bertrand Delgado and Juan Lorenzo Maldonado Mar 09, 2010

LatAm: Positive Dynamics Persist but Beware of Cool Breezes from the North

By Bertrand Delgado and Juan Lorenzo Maldonado Mar 04, 2010

LatAm: Never a Dull Moment

By Bertrand Delgado and Juan Lorenzo Maldonado Mar 02, 2010

Latin America: What's Coming Up?

By Bertrand Delgado and Juan L. Maldonado Feb 19, 2010

Latin America: What's Coming Up?

By Bertrand Delgado and Juan L. Maldonado Feb 12, 2010

Latin America: Inflation on the Rise at the Beginning of 2010

By Bertrand Delgado and Juan L. Maldonado Feb 09, 2010

Latin America: What’s Coming Up?

By Bertrand Delgado Feb 08, 2010

Mexico: Q1 2010 Outlook

By Bertrand Delgado Jan 30, 2010

Carry Trade Hotspots: A Currency by Currency Forecast for 2010

By Mikka Pineda, Mary Stokes, Bertrand Delgado, Mikko Forss, Kavitha Cherian, Arpitha Bykere and Christian Menegatti Jan 04, 2010

Come to Mother: An RGE Strategy for the 2010 Carry Trade

Arnab Das, Natalia Gurushina, Jennifer Kapila, Elisa Parisi-Capone Jan 04, 2010

RGE Currency Outlook: The Mexican Peso

By Bertrand Delgado Jan 01, 2010

Latin American CDS: Fully Recovered, What Are the Risks?

Alejandro Rivera, Elisa Parisi-Capone and Bertrand Delgado Nov 13, 2009

Global Monetary Policy Outlook

The RGE Analyst Team Nov 11, 2009

Are Capital Controls in Fashion Again?

RGE Analyst Team Oct 28, 2009

Mexico Economic Outlook, Q4 2009

Bertrand Delgado Oct 07, 2009

Mexico Economic Outlook, Q3 2009

Bertrand Delgado Jul 24, 2009

ECB, BoT, BoK, BoE, BoJ; China; Mexico; Iceland

Christian Menegatti Apr 10, 2008

EconoMonitors

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Exit Strategy Has begun in Brazil, Inflation Surprised to the Downside in Mexico

Bertrand Delgado and Juan Lorenzo Maldonado Feb 25, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Latin America: A Closer Look at Inflation and Growth Dynamics in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Colombia

Bertrand Delgado, Juan Lorenzo Maldonado, and Christian Menegatti Feb 23, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Stars Align for an Early Hike in Brazil, Mexico's Regulators Ease Pension Fund Investment Rules

Bertrand Delgado and Juan Lorenzo Maldonado Feb 18, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Latin America: Positive Growth Dynamics but Deteriorating Inflation Expectations

Bertrand Delgado and Juan Lorenzo Maldonado Feb 11, 2010

Latin America Economonitor

Mexico - 2010 State and Local Elections: Relevance, Current Dynamics, and Outlook

Alejandro Schtulmann Feb 3, 2010

Latin America Economonitor

A New Latin American Boom Seems to be Starting but it will be Plagued with Risks

Eduardo Lora Feb 2, 2010

Latin America Economonitor

Mexico: Five Key Political Risks in 2010

Alejandro Schtulmann Jan 15, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

In Praise of Roads

Walter Molano Jan 14, 2010

Latin America Economonitor

Outlook for Mexico in 2010

Alejandro Schtulmann Jan 12, 2010

Latin America Economonitor

Carstens Proposed to Lead Banxico; Cordero Goes to Hacienda; Changes Do Not Improve the Status Quo; Political Appointments Prevail at Hacienda and Sedesol

Alejandro Schtulmann Dec 10, 2009

Latin America Economonitor

Banxico’s Chairman Election Process: Unnecessary Uncertainty

Alejandro Schtulmann Dec 8, 2009

Latin America Economonitor

Drug Violence: Reaching a New Pinnacle

Alejandro Schtulmann Nov 17, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Latin American CDS: Fully Recovered, What are the Risks?

Alejandro Rivera, Elisa Parisi-Capone and Bertrand Delgado Nov 17, 2009

Latin America Economonitor

The End of Luz y Fuerza: Recap, Analysis, and Ramifications

Alejandro Schtulmann Oct 20, 2009

Latin America Economonitor

Desertion, Low Morale, and Readiness: Assessing the Mexican Army’s Involvement in the War Against the Cartels and its Impact on Capabilities for Traditional Responses

Alejandro Schtulmann Sep 29, 2009

Latin America Economonitor

On the Links to a Recovery in Latin America

Javier Guillermo Gomez Pineda Sep 8, 2009

Daily Digest

News

Interview with David Shields—update on Mexico and oil

Energy Bulletin  Steve Andrews Mar 15, 2010

News

LatamWatch: Brazil,Mexico Monetary Policy Meetings; Argentina Central Bank Under Attack

iMarketNews  Charles Newbery, Nacha Cattan and Daniel Horch Mar 15, 2010

News

PREVIEW-Mexico Jan industrial output seen up 5.3 pct

Reuters  Jean Luis Arce and Leslie Adler Mar 12, 2010

News

Mexican government promotes medical tourism

International Medical Travel Journal  Mar 11, 2010

News

Mexico Oil Politics Keeps Riches Just Out of Reach

New York Times  Clifford Krauss and Elisabeth Malkin Mar 9, 2010

News

Mexico's Telecom Sector Activity Up 16.5% In 4Q

Easy Bourse  Mar 9, 2010

News

Mexico to Sell $1 Billion of Bonds as Markets Thaw (Update3)

Bloomberg  Veronica Navarro Espinosa Mar 4, 2010

News

Mexico lifts apple import duty

The Seattle Times  David Lester Mar 4, 2010

News

Lawmakers press Obama to fix Mexico truck spat

Reuters  Doug Palmer Mar 4, 2010

News

Mexican Peso Gains to a Six-Week High on Economic Outlook

Bloomberg  Ye Xie Mar 3, 2010

News

Mexico Ministry May Increase 2010 GDP Forecast Again (Update1)

Bloomberg  Jens Erik Gould Mar 3, 2010

News

Anti-drug drive a challenge for Mexico: U.S. report

Reuters  David Alexander Mar 1, 2010

News

Mexico's remittances continue to fall

Business Week  Mar 1, 2010

News

US closes Mexico border consulate

AL Jazeera  Feb 27, 2010

News

New Latin American group unlikely to have teeth

The Miami Herald  Andres Oppenheimer Jan 1, 1900

Analysis

Climate Migration in Latin America: A Future ‘Flood of Refugees’ to the North? Part 2

Council of Hemispheric Affairs  Alexandra Deprez Feb 26, 2010

News

Mexico to propose pan-Latin American alliance

Financial Times  Adam Thomson Feb 25, 2010

News

Brazilian, Mexican stocks finish in the red

Market Watch  Carla Mozee Feb 24, 2010

News

Mexico Consumer Prices Increase Less Than Forecast (Update2)

Bloomberg  Jens Erik Gould Feb 24, 2010

News

Mexico Budget to Ward Off ‘Debt Scares,’ Werner Says (Update1)

Bloomberg  Lester Pimentel and Ye Xie Feb 24, 2010

Analysis

Mexico: The CB has announced details of a reserves accumulation programme

BNP  Italo Lombardi, Rafael de la Fuente, Diego Donadio and Alexandre Lintz Feb 23, 2010

News

Mexico’s Dec. Retail Sales Rise 1.6 Percent From Year Ago

Bloomberg  Jose Enrique Arrioja Feb 23, 2010

News

Mexico captures Sinaloa cartel cocaine trafficker

The Washigton Post  Feb 22, 2010

News

Mexico to Offer Dollar Options in Monthly Auction (Update1)

Bloomberg  Thomas Black Feb 22, 2010

News

Mexico Economy Shrank 6.5% in 2009 Amid Global Financial Crisis

Bloomberg  Thomas Black and Jens Erik Gould Feb 22, 2010

News

LatamWatch: Mexico Syndicated Bond Due to be Issued This Week

iMarketNews.com  Charles Newbery, Daniel Horch and Alex Manda Feb 22, 2010

News

Mexico’s Central Bank Keeps Rate Unchanged at 4.5% (Update1)

Bloomberg  Jens Erik Gould Feb 19, 2010

News

UPDATE 1-Mexico eases investment rules for pension funds

Reuters  Noel Randewich, Chizu Nomiyama, Jason Lange and Jean Luis Arce Feb 18, 2010

News

Mexican leader listens to border city on drug war

The Associated Press  Feb 18, 2010

News

UPDATE 1-Mexico raises 2010 GDP growth forecast

Reuters  Jason Lange and James Dalgleish Feb 18, 2010

Analysis

Mexico: The Ministry of Finance raised the growth outlook for 2010

BNP  Italo Lombardi, Rafael de la Fuente, Diego Donadio and Alexandre Lintz Feb 18, 2010

Opinions

The 7 Most Corrupt Countries and Their ETFs

Seeking Alpha  Feb 17, 2010

News

Mexico Mkts Cheered by News Govt to Sell $1 bln,10Y Peso Bond

iMarketNews.com  Nacha Cattan Feb 11, 2010

News

Mexico stocks higher as U.S. data, Greece outlook brightens

Market Watch  Carla Mozee Jan 16, 2010

News

Mexico's December Tourism Revenues Fall 4.5% To $1.17B

Wall Street Journal  Paul Kiernan Feb 15, 2010

News

Mexico Peso Bond Yields Fall to 9-Month Low on Debt Sale Plans

Business Week  Andrea Jaramillo Feb 16, 2010

News

Mexico names new prosecutor for attacks on media

The Associated Press  Feb 15, 2010

News

Mexican Auto Output May Rise 20% in 2010, Economy Official Says

Bloomberg  Thomas Black Feb 16, 2010

Opinions

Why Mexico is the missing Bric

Financial Times  Gideon Rachman Feb 16, 2010

News

'March of Anger' in Mexico against military's drug war

The Associated Press  Feb 14, 2010

News

LatamWatch: Mexico Awaits Syndicated Bond,New Reserve Measures

iMarketNews.com  Charles Newbery, Nacha Cattan and Daniel Horch Feb 15, 2010

News

Mexico prez presents new plan for violent city

The Washington Post  ALICIA CALDWELL Feb 13, 2010

Analysis

Mexico: after the storm...

BNP Paribas  Sylvain Bellefontaine Feb 8, 2010

News

Mexico politics: Calderón’s dilemmas

EIU  Feb 10, 2010

Analysis

Rate Hikes? Not this Year

Morgan Stanley Global Economic Forum  Luis Arcentales Feb 9, 2010

News

Mexico Won't Withdraw Army From Drug Fight

New York Times  The Associated Press Feb 10, 2010

News

Mexico Industrial Output Posts First Rise Since 2008

Bloomberg  Jens Erik Gould Feb 11, 2010

Analysis

Mexico: Q1 2010 Outlook

RGE  Bertrand Delgado Feb 9, 2010

News

Amid drug war, Mexico less deadly than decade ago

The Washigton Post  Feb 8, 2010

News

Mexico’s Sanchez ‘Ready to Be Surprised’ by Pace of Recovery

Business Week  Jacob Greber and Heidi Couch Feb 7, 2010

News

Mexico GDP May Grow More Than 3% in 2010, Werner Says

Bloomberg  Jens Erik Gould and Laura Price Feb 5, 2010

News

J.P. Morgan Stays Overweight Emerging-Market Sovereigns

Wall Street Journal  Riva Froymovich Feb 4, 2010

News

Carstens Says Mexico Price Expectations Are Anchored

Bloomberg  Emma Ross-Thomas Feb 2, 2010

News

Mexico's PAN and PRD: Love letters in the making?

LA TImes  Ken Ellingwood Feb 1, 2010

News

Mexico Ends 2009 With Fiscal Deficit Equal To 2.3% Of GDP

Wall Street Journal  Anthony Harrup Jan 30, 2010

News

Mexico GDP Down 6.8 Percent in 2009

ABC News  Jan 30, 2010

Analysis

Mexico: The Path of Interest Rates in 2010

BNP Paribas  Italo Lombardi and Rafael de la Fuente Jan 29, 2010

News

Latin America rejects old U.S. approach in drugs war

Reuters  Luis Andres Henao Jan 29, 2010

RGE Writings

Bremmer-Roubini 2010 Global Forecast

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor  Nouriel Roubini and Ian Bremmer Jan 28, 2010

News

Brazil, Chile, Peru: Latin America Bond and Currency Preview

Bloomberg  Andrea Jaramillo Jan 28, 2010

News

Mexico’s Bank May Buy Dollar Reserves From Market

Bloomberg  Jens Erik Gould and Jose Enrique Arrioja Jan 28, 2010

News

Mexico House to Vote on New Tax Bill in April, Lawmaker Says

Bloomberg  Jens Erik Gould and Adriana Lopez Caraveo Jan 27, 2010

News

HSBC Says Mexico More Attractive Than Brazil on U.S. Recovery

Bloomberg  Alexander Ragir Jan 26, 2010

News

Mexican Debt May Rally Most Since 2006 on Economy

Bloomberg  Jens Erik Gould Jan 25, 2010

News

Mexico president race could look like soap opera

The Washigton Post  Mark Stevenson Jan 25, 2010

News

The week in Mexico: 1-24-2010

Signon San Diego  David Gaddis Smith Dec 25, 2009

News

Mexico Prices Rose 0.75% in the First Half of January

Bloomberg  Jens Erik Gould Jan 22, 2010

News

Mexico The Industrial Fiesta

Morgan Stanley Global Economic Forum  Luis Arcentales Jan 20, 2010

News

Mexico Fin Min: Mexico May Renew IMF Credit Line

Wall Street Journal  Meena Thiruvengadam Jan 20, 2010

News

Mexico's Retail Association Antad Sees 2010 Sales Up 5.5%

WSJ  Paul Kiernan Jan 20, 2010

News

Mexico’s Inflation May Peak in April, Banxico Official Says

Bloomberg  Thomas Black Jan 19, 2010

News

Mexico November Tourism Revenue Down 7.9% On Year To $928.3M

Wall Street Journal  Paul Kiernan Jan 15, 2010

News

‘Massively’ Cheap Mexican Peso Wins Over Aberdeen

Bloomberg  Ye Xie and Tal Barak Harif Jan 19, 2010

News

LATAM WEEKAHEAD-Inflation seen rising in Brazil and Mexico

Reuters  Daniel Bases Jan 17, 2010

Opinions

Latin American elections

Financial Times  Lex Jan 19, 2010

News

UPDATE 1-Mexico Oct economy grows for second straight month

Reuters  Jason Lange and Theodore d'Afflisio Jan 15, 2010

News

Bank of Mexico Keeps Rate at 4.5% on Tame Inflation

Bloomberg  Jens Erik Gould Jan 15, 2010

News

Mexico Retailers December Same-Store Sales Up 6% On Year

Wall Street Journal  Anthony Harrup Jan 13, 2010

News

UPDATE: Mexico Auto Production, Exports Rebound In December

Wall Street Journal  Laurence Iliff Jan 12, 2010

Opinions

Beyond BRIC: Introducing MAVINS

Seeking Alpha  Jan 7, 2010

Analysis

Mexico Projects Higher Gas Consumption in 2024

Global Insight  Jan 4, 2010