Roubini Global Economics

Key Indicators

Economic Activity Index
(2003=100, SA)

112.9,113.2,114.97,116.61,117.02 117.02

Consumer Price Index - Total
INPC
(Index 2002Q2 = 100, NSA)

140.86,141.86,141.41,140.51,140.47 140.47

Foreign Trade
Balance
(Million Dollars, NSA)

243.92,237.34,194.72,178.8,-340.46 -340.46

Industrial Production
Total
(2003 = 100, SA)

109.56,110.31,111.9,111.5,112.75 112.75

28 Days Interbank Equilibrium Rate [TIIE]
(Percent, NSA)

4.9,4.92,4.94,4.95,4.93 4.93

Consumer Survey
Consumer Confidence Index
(January 2003=100, NSA)

80.6,81.8,82.5,84.6,87.5 87.5

data by Moody's

RGE's Q3 2010 Mexico Outlook

RGE continues to expect Mexican GDP expansion of 4% y/y in 2010 (3.5-4.5% range), mainly driven by external demand, especially from the U.S. which RGE anticipates economic and industrial production will grow 2.6% y/y and 4.5% y/y, respectively. Although we expect domestic demand to pull up in Q2-Q3 2010, heightened global risks will likely limit upside potential in the coming months. Overall, our core base scenario for Mexico remains the same in that we expect GDP growth to peak in Q2 2010 at 6.2%—bringing H1 2010 expansion to 5.3%—and then decelerate in H2 2010 to around 3% y/y. Needless to say, at this rate Mexico will grow above potential growth of 3-3.5% and the 10-year average of 2%

Read the Q3 2010 Mexico Outlook.

EconoMonitors

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Mexico: Investors Looking at Business Confidence and Future Growth

Bertrand Delgado Aug 30, 2010

Latin America Economonitor

Rule of Law and Security Update

Alejandro Schtulmann Jul 23, 2010

Latin America Economonitor

Mexico’s July 4th State and Local Elections Results: Analysis and Ramifications

Alejandro Schtulmann Jul 15, 2010

Latin America Economonitor

Mexico: Labor Reform, One Last Attempt?

Alejandro Schtulmann Apr 7, 2010

Latin America Economonitor

High Business Inequality, Very Low Productivity

Eduardo Lora Mar 25, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Exit Strategy Has begun in Brazil, Inflation Surprised to the Downside in Mexico

Bertrand Delgado and Juan Lorenzo Maldonado Feb 25, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Latin America: A Closer Look at Inflation and Growth Dynamics in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Colombia

Bertrand Delgado, Juan Lorenzo Maldonado, and Christian Menegatti Feb 23, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Stars Align for an Early Hike in Brazil, Mexico's Regulators Ease Pension Fund Investment Rules

Bertrand Delgado and Juan Lorenzo Maldonado Feb 18, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Latin America: Positive Growth Dynamics but Deteriorating Inflation Expectations

Bertrand Delgado and Juan Lorenzo Maldonado Feb 11, 2010

Latin America Economonitor

Mexico - 2010 State and Local Elections: Relevance, Current Dynamics, and Outlook

Alejandro Schtulmann Feb 3, 2010

Latin America Economonitor

A New Latin American Boom Seems to be Starting but it will be Plagued with Risks

Eduardo Lora Feb 2, 2010

Latin America Economonitor

Mexico: Five Key Political Risks in 2010

Alejandro Schtulmann Jan 15, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

In Praise of Roads

Walter Molano Jan 14, 2010

Latin America Economonitor

Outlook for Mexico in 2010

Alejandro Schtulmann Jan 12, 2010

Latin America Economonitor

Carstens Proposed to Lead Banxico; Cordero Goes to Hacienda; Changes Do Not Improve the Status Quo; Political Appointments Prevail at Hacienda and Sedesol

Alejandro Schtulmann Dec 10, 2009

Latin America Economonitor

Banxico’s Chairman Election Process: Unnecessary Uncertainty

Alejandro Schtulmann Dec 8, 2009

Latin America Economonitor

Drug Violence: Reaching a New Pinnacle

Alejandro Schtulmann Nov 17, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Latin American CDS: Fully Recovered, What are the Risks?

Alejandro Rivera, Elisa Parisi-Capone and Bertrand Delgado Nov 17, 2009

Latin America Economonitor

The End of Luz y Fuerza: Recap, Analysis, and Ramifications

Alejandro Schtulmann Oct 20, 2009

Latin America Economonitor

Desertion, Low Morale, and Readiness: Assessing the Mexican Army’s Involvement in the War Against the Cartels and its Impact on Capabilities for Traditional Responses

Alejandro Schtulmann Sep 29, 2009

Latin America Economonitor

On the Links to a Recovery in Latin America

Javier Guillermo Gomez Pineda Sep 8, 2009

RGE Global Outlook Update

Featured Analysis

China Focus: Treading Water or Drowning?

“With local governments near their maximum sustainable debt level after massive borrowing through urban development and investment companies last year, a large fiscal stimulus will be impossible this time around.”

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RGE's Q3 2010 Mexico Outlook

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