Philippines

RGE Q1 2010 Philippines Outlook

Thanks to its consumer-driven economy, the Philippines eluded a recession in 2009. The country’s financial underdevelopment left its financial sector relatively isolated from the global credit crisis and healthy balance sheets allowed banks to avoid the credit tightening seen in countries closer to the epicenter of the global financial crisis. Resilient remittances and public spending also buoyed consumption. However, the global financial crisis did not leave this recession-less bright spot in Asia unscathed. RGE expects real GDP growth to have slowed sharply from a government-estimated 3.8% in 2008 (revised in May 2009 from 4.6%) to 0.7% in 2009 due to a collapse in export demand and, later, colossal damage from typhoons in Q4. As the global economy picks up speed, the Philippines' annual GDP growth should accelerate to 3.7% in 2010, barring major natural disasters. A construction boom and export rebound will revive production. Strong, double-digit private sector credit growth will...

Read the Q1 2010 Philippines Outlook.