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Philippines

Macro View

Markets

Finance & Banking

Geostrategic & Long Term Issues

Key Indicators

Balance of Payments
Current Account - Current Transfers Credit
(Millions US$, NSA)
1423,1434,1448,1297,1361 1,361
Balance of Payments
Financial Account - Direct Investment Credit Liabilities
Non-Residents' Investments in the Phil., (Millions US$, NSA)
388,-133,347,36,-6 -6
Debt Service - Total
(Mil. Pesos, NSA)
71437,54797,61277,25709,18330 18,330
Foreign Trade
Exports - Total
(Millions of US Dollars, NSA)
3311.74,3472.12,3633.98,3659.61,3692.94 3,692.94
National Accounts - Gross Domestic Product
(Millions of 1985 Philippine Pesos, NSA)
388948,334866,358460,346405,395942 395,942
Consumer Price Index
Core
(2000=100, NSA)
156.4,156.7,157,157.6,158.3 158.3
data by Moody's

Current Economic Outlook

Thanks to its consumer‐driven economy, the Philippines eluded a recession despite a steep plunge in exports. The Philippines' financial underdevelopment left its financial sector relatively isolated from the global credit crisis and healthy balance sheets allowed banks avoid the credit tightening seen in the countries closer to the epicenter of the global financial crisis. However, the global financial crisis did not leave this recession‐less bright spot in Asia unscathed. GDP growth slowed sharply as falling external demand created excess capacity in the export sector, prompting personnel and pay reductions. Fortunately, robust demand overseas for Filipino labor kept remittances surprisingly resilient. Remittances buoyed private investment and household spending. The Philippines' Q2 2009 GDP growth accelerated to 1.5% y/y and 2.4% q/q after bottoming in Q1 2009—just short of a technical recession. Net exports and private sector investment extended their abysmal performance but were offset by public investment and private domestic consumption. As the global economy picks up speed, the Philippines should continue to avoid a recession in 2009. In 2010, the Philippines will post slower…

Read the latest RGE Global Economic Update.

RGE Analysis

Philippines: Q1 2010 Outlook

By Mikka Pineda Jan 30, 2010

Come to Mother: An RGE Strategy for the 2010 Carry Trade

Arnab Das, Natalia Gurushina, Jennifer Kapila, Elisa Parisi-Capone Jan 04, 2010

Carry Trade Hotspots: A Currency by Currency Forecast for 2010

By Mikka Pineda, Mary Stokes, Bertrand Delgado, Mikko Forss, Kavitha Cherian, Arpitha Bykere and Christian Menegatti Jan 04, 2010

RGE Currency Outlook: The Philippine Peso

By Mikka Pineda Jan 01, 2010

Are Capital Controls in Fashion Again?

RGE Analyst Team Oct 28, 2009

Philipines Economic Outlook, Q4 2009

Mikka Pineda Oct 07, 2009

Philippines Economic Outlook, Q3 2009

Mikka Pineda Jul 24, 2009

Accrual Accounting for Governments

Mikka Pineda Oct 16, 2007

Daily Digest

News

Single Asean market a step closer

Financial Times  Kevin Brown Feb 9, 2010

Blogs

People, the Philippines' best export

Economist  Feb 9, 2010

News

Violence, tight race mark Philippine poll campaign

Time  Teresa Cerojano, Hrvoje Hranjski and Oliver Teves Feb 9, 2010

News

PH: 6%-7% increase in OFW remittances seen this year

Philippine Star  Lawrence Agcaoili Feb 9, 2010

News

Politician murdered in Philippine massacre province

Channel Asia  AFP Feb 8, 2010

Opinions

Banyan: Asia's never-closer union

The Economist  Feb 4, 2010

News

PH: Villar overtakes Aquino in Pulse Asia survey

Manila Bulletin  Rolly Carandang Feb 8, 2010

News

200 OFWs stopped work over contractual violations in Saudi

Philippine Daily Inquirer  Jerome Aning Feb 8, 2010

News

Strong dollar fails to spur remittance to Philippines

The Peninsula  Chris Panganiaban Feb 8, 2010

Research

Macroeconomic Model for Policy Analysis and Insight (a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas)

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas  Jr, Paul D. McNelis, Francisco G. Dakila, Eloisa T. Glindro and Ferdinand S. Co Dec 1, 2009

Opinions

What election issues worry Philippine markets?

Reuters  Rosemarie Francisco and Manny Mogato Jan 15, 2010

News

End of Aquino’s free ride

Philippine Daily Inquirer  Amando Doronila Feb 4, 2010

News

Philippine political landscape remains unpredictable, analysts say

GMA News  Sophia M. Dedace Feb 5, 2010

News

PH: RP dollar reserves hit fresh high on govt borrowing

Manila Times  Darwin G. Amojelar and Lailany P. Gomez Feb 6, 2010

News

PH: Inflation for the first month of the year slowed down to 4.3%

National Economic Development Authority  Feb 5, 2010

News

PH: Cooperative Banks’ NPL Ratio Stands at 8.63 Percent

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas  Feb 5, 2010

News

PH: Rural Banks’ NPL Ratio Improves to 10.58 Percent

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas  Feb 5, 2010

News

PH: Thrift Banks Post 8.44% NPL Ratio in Q3 2009

Morgan Stanley  Feb 5, 2010

News

PH: Inflation Slows Down Slightly in January to 4.3 Percent

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas  Feb 5, 2010

News

PH: End-January 2010 GIR Level Rises to US$45.4 Billion

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas  Feb 5, 2010

News

Philippines says may raise 2010 GDP target

Reuters  Feb 5, 2010

News

PH: RP credit rating may be lowered if revenue collection worsens - S&P

Philippine Star  Iris C. Gonzales Feb 5, 2010

News

PH: Business BSP mulls further increase in rediscount rate

Philippine Star  Lawrence Agcaoili Feb 5, 2010

News

Philippine Inflation Rate Holds Near Eight-Month High

Business Week  Karl Lester M. Yap and Max Estayo Feb 5, 2010

News

Philippines: Economic Recovery Unfelt by Urban Poor – NGOs

Inter Press Service  Kara Santos Feb 4, 2010

News

PH: S&P retains RP credit rating, sees 3.7% GDP growth

Philippine Star  Lawrence Agcaoili Feb 4, 2010

News

PH: Villar, Aquino now tied in survey

Manila Bulletin  Feb 3, 2010

Blogs

Budgetary Problems Continue to Dog the Philippines

Seeking Alpha  Marc Chandler Feb 2, 2010

News

Philippines May Extend Sugar Imports to Fill Export Quotas

Bloomberg  Cecilia Yap Feb 2, 2010

Analysis

Banks in Asia (Excluding Japan): Outlook for 2010

Fitch Ratings (free registration required)  David Marshall et al Feb 2, 2010

Analysis

Philippines economy: The budget deficit has widened

Economist Intelligence Unit  Feb 1, 2010

News

Philippines’ Bond Sale Fails for 2nd Time This Year

Bloomberg  Clarissa Batino and Max Estayo Feb 2, 2010

News

Philippines May Sell Yen Debt Cheaper Than Indonesia

Bloomberg  David Yong and Yusuke Miyazawa Feb 2, 2010

News

PH: BSP to consider market conditions before lifting liquidity measures

Philippine Star  Lawrence Agcaoili Feb 2, 2010

Research

Spatial development and the law of one price: Evidence of convergence of land values

University of the Philippines School of Economics  Joseph J. Capuno Jan 1, 2010

News

Asia Monthly Chart Book, January 2010

BBVA  Serena Wang and Ramon de la Rocha Feb 1, 2010

News

PH: D.A. Takes Action vs 65 Retailers Overpricing Sugar

Department of Agriculture  Feb 1, 2010

News

Government to trim 2010 budget deficit target

Philippine Star  Iris C. Gonzales Feb 1, 2010

News

Philippines Plans March Debt Sale to Filipinos Abroad, Tan Says

Bloomberg  Clarissa Batino Feb 1, 2010

News

Philippine Peso to Rally on Election, Rates, San Miguel Says

Business Week  Clarissa Batino Feb 1, 2010

News

PH: Statement of NEDA Acting DG Santos on Q4 2009 National Income Accounts

National Economic Development Authority  Jan 29, 2010

News

Philippines Raises Rediscounting Rate as Growth Accelerates

Bloomberg  Karl Lester M. Yap and Max Estayo Jan 29, 2010

News

BPI sees double-digit growth in remittance business last year

Philippine Star  Ted P. Torres Jan 29, 2010

RGE Writings

Bremmer-Roubini 2010 Global Forecast

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor  Nouriel Roubini and Ian Bremmer Jan 28, 2010

Analysis

Global economic outlook - 1st quarter 2010: After the recovery, New issues emerge

Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu  Ira Kalish et al Jan 26, 2010

News

PH: BSP sees inflation hitting 4.5% to 5.4% in January

Philippine Star  Lawrence Agcaoili Jan 28, 2010

Analysis

Philippine Economy Tepidly Rejuvenated

National Statistical Coordination Board  Jan 28, 2010

News

Philippine Growth Accelerates to Fastest in a Year

Bloomberg  Cecilia Yap and Karl Lester M. Yap Jan 28, 2010

News

Philippine Economy Grows Faster Than Expected

Wall Steet Journal  Cris Larano and Rhea Sandique-Carlos Jan 28, 2010

News

Philippines Raises Rediscounting Rate Amid Recovery

Bloomberg  Karl Lester M. Yap and Max Estayo Jan 28, 2010

News

PH: Imports rebound 4.1% in November

Philippine Star  Rica D. Delfinado Jan 27, 2010

News

Imports Grow by 4.1%; US$85M Trade Surplus in November

National Economic Development Authority  Jan 27, 2010

News

Moody's maintains RP rating despite slowest GDP growth

Philippine Star  Lawrence Agcaoili Jan 26, 2010

Research

Shock Transmission Mechanism of the Economic Crisis in East Asia: An Application of International Input-Output Analysis

Institute for Developing Economies - Japan External Trade Organization  Kuroiwa Ikuo and Kuwarmori Hiroshi Jan 25, 2010

News

Property bounce in the Philippines

Asia Times  Jennee Grace U Rubrico Jan 26, 2010

News

Biggest quarterly deficit seen in first quarter

Philippine Star  Iris C. Gonzales Jan 25, 2010

Blogs

Memory and fear dominate Philippines' pre-election scenarios

Asia Sentinel  Criselda Yabes Jan 22, 2010

News

Philippines Panel Clears Election Bid by Former President

Wall Steet Journal  Carlos H.Conde Jan 22, 2010

News

Philippine Candidate Aquino Warns of Fiscal Crisis

Wall Steet Journal  Jan 22, 2010

News

World Bank sees 3.5% growth for RP

Philippine Star  Ted P. Torres Jan 22, 2010

Analysis

PH: Farm Sector Grew in 2009 Despite Climate Change

Department of Agriculture  Jan 20, 2010

Analysis

Index of Economic Freedom: The Philippines

Hertiage Foundation and Wall Street Journal  Jan 21, 2010

News

PH: Global recovery to lift RP growth to 3.5% in 2010 and 3.8% in 2011

Manila Bulletin  Edu H. Lopez Jan 21, 2010

Analysis

PH: 2009 Annual Labor and Employment status

National Statistics Office  Jan 21, 2010

News

The Destruction of the Filipino Tuna Industry

Asia Sentinel  Edwin Espejo Jan 21, 2010

Opinions

Manila's Dose of Economic Populism

Wall Steet Journal  Jan 20, 2010

News

Philippine rice output seen down 1.7% in H1

Reuters  Jan 20, 2010

Analysis

The Global Financial Crisis and the Asia-Pacific region: A Synthesis Study Incorporating Evidence from Country Case Studies

UNDP Regional Centre for Asia and the Pacific  Jayati Ghosh, Ajay Chhibber and Thangavel Palanivel Nov 1, 2009

Analysis

The New Security Drama in East Asia

Naval War College Review,  Evan S. Medeiros Jan 19, 2010

News

PH: BSP assures ‘gradual’ exit

Malaya Business Insight  Jimmy Calapati Jan 19, 2010

News

PH: BSP seen to hike banks’ reserve requirements before election

Manila Bulletin  Lee C. Chipongian Jan 19, 2010

News

BOP surplus hit $5.29B in 2009

Philippine Daily Inquirer  Michelle Remo Jan 18, 2010

News

The global storm is over

Business World  Mercedes B. Suleik Jan 19, 2010