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Portugal
Featured Content
Portugal: Fiscal Policy and Public Finances
Portugal PM and Rehn Concede Prospect for Additional Bridge Funding
Macroeconomy
Geostrategy
Portugal Outlook: Heading for a Restructuring
In light of Portugal’s downgrade to junk by all three rating agencies and the apparent insufficiency of unlimited liquidity to inspire market confidence, we don’t anticipate Portugal regaining market access by 2013. Instead, we expect Portugal to negotiate a bilateral loan extension until end-2015 with the troika by this fall. While the 2011 fiscal target will likely be met with the help of one-off measures, we expect fiscal slippage with respect to the 2012 and 2013 targets in view of severe growth headwinds and credit constraints. The lack of external financing is shifting the focus to the still-accumulating arrears in state-owned enterprises (SEOs) and to the consolidation of other off-balance-sheet entities, with an impact on debt sustainability.
Read the latest Portugal Outlook
Market Strategy
Cross Asset Monthly
The Big Picture: Necessary but Insufficient Policies for Interesting Times
By Oct 29, 2010
Market Strategy
Fixed Income: Relief Rallies European Bond Markets, But Now for the Hard Part
By May 10, 2010
Economic Research
Economic Research
What’s on Nouriel’s Mind: 12 Drivers of the Eurozone’s Slow-Motion Train Wreck
By May 1, 2012
Economic Research
What’s on Nouriel’s Mind: The Eurozone Needs More Than Austerity to Restore Growth
By Apr 12, 2012
Economic Research
What’s on Nouriel’s Mind: A Balance-Sheet Recession Calls for Monetized Fiscal Deficits, Not Fiscal Austerity
By Apr 3, 2012
Conference Call
Conference Call Highlights: Can the EZ Be Brought Back From the Brink?
By Nov 17, 2011
Economic Research
Four Options to Address the Eurozone's Stock and Flow Imbalances: The Rising Risk of a Disorderly Break-Up
By Nov 1, 2011
Economic Research
Waiting for the Wednesday Summit: Progress Report on EFSF Leverage Options, Bank Recaps and Greece
By Oct 24, 2011
Economic Research
Low Inflation in EZ Core Threatens Periphery’s Efforts to Regain Competitiveness
By Oct 21, 2011
Europe Weekly
UK’s MPC Meeting; Norway’s Monetary Policy; Portugal’s Budget Plan; Hungary’s Credit Rating; Russia’s Retail Sales; EZ Calendar
By Oct 21, 2011
Conference Call
Conference Call Replay: Eurozone in Crisis—More Than a Plan to Plan Needed
By Oct 21, 2011
Economic Research
Last Shot on Goal: Will Eurozone Leaders Succeed in Ending the Crisis?
By Oct 21, 2011
Europe Weekly
Finnish Collateral Demands, Polish Consumption, Czech Rating Upgrade, EZ PMIs, Portuguese Consumption
By Aug 26, 2011
Economic Research
Second Bailout Package for Greece and Stabilization of the EMU Framework—Options and Solutions
By Jul 21, 2011
Economic Research
Much Ado About Relatively Little: Contagion Risks From an Orderly Greek Debt Restructuring Are Modest, Contained and Manageable
By May 24, 2011
Economic Research
DSK's Arrest: Implications for the IMF Succession and PIIGS' Bailouts
By May 16, 2011
Europe Weekly
Eurozone Core Comes Up Trumps in Q1; UK, EZ Periphery Moving at Half Speed
By May 13, 2011
Economic Research
CDS and Debt Restructuring: Does the Existence of Credit Derivatives Make Restructuring Harder?
By Apr 21, 2011
Economic Research
Q2 2011 Geostrategy Note: The Scent of Jasmine, Japan's Mega-Crisis and Other Global Drama
By Mar 24, 2011
Economic Research
2011 Geostrategy Note: The Roiling Pacific, Quagmiristan and EZ Targets
By Dec 29, 2010
Economic Research
Comparing Spain With Ireland and Other PIIGS: Better in Some Ways, More at Risk in Others
By Nov 25, 2010
Economic Research
An Orderly Market-Based Approach to the Restructuring of Eurozone Sovereign Debts Obviates the Need for Statutory Approaches
By Nov 15, 2010
Economic Research
Eurozone Periphery: Short-Term Sovereign Risk Amid Long-Term Restructuring Plans
By Nov 11, 2010
Europe Weekly
EZ's Head and Tailwinds; Acute Portuguese Crisis; Stalling Russian Growth
By Nov 5, 2010
Economic Research
Q3 2010 Geostrategy Note: Nascent Nukes, Portly PIIGS and the Taliban
By Aug 4, 2010
Economic Research
Global Recession Watch: A Dozen Significant Economies are at Risk of a Hard Landing
By Jun 25, 2008
EconoMonitors
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Is the Risk Free Status of Euro Area Sovereign Debt in Tatters?
Mar 16, 2012
Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor
CNBC Video and Report - Portugal to Fall, Greece to Leave Euro Zone: Roubini
Mar 12, 2012
Don't Shoot the Messenger
Portugal Gradually Shuffles Its Way Towards the Front of the Debt Queue
Mar 11, 2012
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Brinkmanship in Brussels, Sturm and Drachma for Greece and Europe
Feb 27, 2012
Dan Alpert's Two Cents
On Sticky Wages and What Happens when Inflation is No Longer an Alternative
Dec 13, 2011
Dan Alpert's Two Cents
On Printing Euros and the Real German Fear (hint, it's not 1923)
Nov 17, 2011
Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor
Portugal: Policy Postcard From the Edge—Third Time Unlucky?
May 11, 2011
Europe Channel
The Irish Stress Tests and Euro Zone Options: Monetization, Default, or Break-Up
Mar 31, 2011
The Wilder View
The ECB Would Quash a Discrete Shift in German Nominal GDP Rather Than Accommodate It
Feb 14, 2011
Geostrategy Channel
Cross-Border Deleveraging and the Shifts in Europe's Bargaining Game
Nov 29, 2010
Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor
An Orderly Market-Based Approach to the Restructuring of Eurozone Sovereign Debts Obviates the Need for Statutory Approaches
Nov 28, 2010
Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor
Roubini Hosts CNBC Squawk Box - Europe: Contagion 2.0
Nov 19, 2010
Geostrategy Channel
Spain Is the Perfect Example of a Country that Never Should Have Joined the Eurozone
May 17, 2010
Geostrategy Channel
Making Fiscal Consolidation Work In Greece, Portugal, and Spain: Some Lessons from Argentina
May 11, 2010
Geostrategy Channel
The Escalating Greek Debt Crisis: What Has Been Happening and Where Is It Going?
May 6, 2010
Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor
Roubini Concerns About the Future of the EMU - World Economic Forum, Davos, 2006
May 5, 2010
Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor
Roubini CNBC and Bloomberg Reports on Greece Crisis, European Union
Apr 29, 2010
Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor
Roubini Bloomberg Interview on Sovereign Debt and U.S. Outlook
Feb 6, 2010
Daily Digest
Analysis
Report on the public consultation on the European Commission Green Paper on the feasibility of introducing Stability Bonds
EU Commission May 15, 2012
Analysis
Portugal: Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Applicability of End-March Performance Criteria - Staff Report
IMF Apr 05, 2012
Analysis
Transcript of a Conference Call on the Third Review under an EFF Arrangement with Portugal
IMF Apr 05, 2012
Analysis
The Economic Adjustment Programme for Portugal. Third review – Winter 2011/2012
EU Commission Apr 03, 2012
Research
Structural Reforms and Macroeconomic Performance in the Euro Area Countries: A Model-Based Assessment
ECB April 2011
Opinions
Decline and small-Small firms are a big problem for Europe’s periphery
The Economist Mar 03, 2012
Opinions
The Proust index- Advanced economies have gone backwards by a decade as a result of the crisis
The Economist Feb 25, 2012
Analysis
Averting the Next Greece: Portugal Needs More Money To Stay Afloat
Spiegel online Feb 21, 2012
News
Schaeuble Signals Germany Is Flexible on Portugal Aid Terms
Bloomberg BusinessWeek Feb 13, 2012
News
IMF Completes Second Review Under an EFF with Portugal, Approves €2.9 Billion Disbursement
IMF Dec 19, 2011
Analysis
Southern Europe and Ireland: The long road to sustainable public finance
Rabobank Dec 13, 2011
News
Statement by the EC, ECB, and IMF on the Second Review Mission to Portugal
European Commission Nov 16, 2011
Analysis
Europe in the wake of the worsening crisis-Results of the GfK consumer climate of Europe for the third quarter of 2011
GfK Oct 18, 2011
News
Economic Bulletin - Autumn 2011: Projections for the Portuguese economy in 2011-2012
Banco de Portugal Oct 06, 2011
Analysis
Rebalancing across southern peripheral countries – The challenge ahead
Unicredit Bank Oct 03, 2011
Analysis
What happened in the countries that tried to reduce their fiscal deficit by increasing the tax burden?
Natixis Bank Sep 28, 2011
Analysis
Assumptions of potential growth for many OECD countries will have to be adjusted downwards significantly
Natixis Bank Sep 27, 2011
Analysis
There will not be any eurobonds or federalism in the euro zone for a very long time, so how can a break-up of the euro be prevented?
Natixis Bank Sep 27, 2011
News
Bundesbank to form a coalition of Euro central bankers against the SMP
Eurointelligence Sep 21, 2011
Analysis
Improving euro-zone countries' competitiveness: In what ways does a reduction in wages differ from a devaluation of the exchange rate?
Natixis Bank Sep 14, 2011
Analysis
What would happen if Greece, Portugal, Spain or Italy (individually) withdrew from the euro?
Natixis Bank Sep 13, 2011
News
IMF Completes First Review Under an EFF with Portugal and Approves €3.98 Billion Disbursement
IMF Sep 12, 2011
Analysis
Either the ECB or Germany will have to give up its principles ("eat its hat")
Natixis Bank Sep 08, 2011
RESEARCH AND STRATEGY FIXTURES
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Featured Economic Research and Market Strategy
Featured Analysis
No Hints of Easing From FOMC, But Low-Rates Gravy Train Keeps on Rolling
“Despite the reasonable growth pace of Q1, there is evidence of weakening in spending and investment activity indicators, and speed bumps have recently emerged in labor market progress.”
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