Portugal

RGE's Q1 2010 Eurozone Outlook

The exit from recession in the second half of 2009, which follows five quarters of negative growth, and the resumption in world growth, has led RGE and others to revise upward forecasts for eurozone growth. The flow of recent hard data, however, confirms the eurozone’s position as growth laggard among advanced economies. This assessment is further corroborated by Germany’s flash estimate of flat Q4 2009 growth, released by the statistical office in mid-January 2010. The disappointing flash estimate in Germany may well turn out to be an inventory-related statistical outlier, but survey indicators in the last quarter of 2009 point to a deceleration in activity over the turn of the year.

Along with net exports, this reliance on temporary factors—such as further positive growth contributions from inventory changes in Q4 2009 and the implementation of previously agreed fiscal stimulus packages—will continue to set the pace in 2010.

Read the Q1 2010 Eurozone Outlook.