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Romania

Macro View

Romania: Economic Profile

Romania: S&P Upgrades Ratings Outlook to Stable

Romania's GDP Drops by 7.1% in 2009

Romania : South East Europe : Europe : Macro View : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :

Central and Eastern Europe: Economic Outlook

Recovery in Eastern Europe: When Will It Come? What Could Drive It?

Eastern Europe: Stabilization, but Vulnerabilities Remain

Baltics : Bulgaria : Central Europe : Croatia : Czech Republic : Eurozone : Hungary : Latvia : Lithuania : Poland : Romania : Serbia : Slovakia : Slovenia : South East Europe : Europe : Macro View : Current Financial Crisis : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle : Systemic Risk, Vulnerabilities and Asset Bubbles :

Euro Adoption Path for EU Newcomers

Will Greek Woes Delay EU Newcomers' Euro Adoption Timetable?

Euro Ambitions in the Baltics: Estonia Stands Out

Europe : Macro View : Baltics : Bulgaria : Central Europe : Czech Republic : Estonia : Eurozone : Hungary : Latvia : Lithuania : Poland : Romania : South East Europe :

Eastern European Public Finances

Public Finances: Eastern Europe Outshines EMU Periphery

Poland's Deteriorating Fiscal Position: New Spending Rule Announced

Baltics : Bulgaria : Central Europe : Czech Republic : Estonia : Hungary : Latvia : Lithuania : Poland : Romania : South East Europe : Europe : Macro View : Fiscal Policy :

IMF's Expanded Role in Central and Eastern Europe

Politics Endangers IMF Programs in Several Countries

IMF's Expansive Role in Emerging Europe: A New, More Lenient Organization?

Baltics : Central Europe : Croatia : Czech Republic : Hungary : Latvia : Poland : Romania : Serbia : South East Europe : Europe : Macro View : Current Financial Crisis : IMF and International Economic Institutions : International Financial Institutions : Systemic Risk, Vulnerabilities and Asset Bubbles :

Central and Eastern European Demographics

Central and Eastern European Demographics: Impact Of Greying And Emigration

Baltics : Bulgaria : Central Europe : Czech Republic : Estonia : Hungary : Latvia : Lithuania : Poland : Romania : Slovakia : Slovenia : South East Europe : Europe : Geostrategic and Long Term Issues : Macro View : Demographics, Retirement and Health Care : Labor Markets and Productivity :

EU Newcomers: Monetary Policy

Romania Monetary Policy: Inflation Slowdown Points to Rate Cut in March

Hungary Monetary Policy: Central Bank Cuts Key Rate to Historical Low in February

Central Europe : Hungary : Poland : Romania : South East Europe : Europe : Macro View : Monetary Policy and Inflation :

Eastern Europe: External Accounts

Eastern Europe Current Accounts in Adjustment: Out of the Danger Zone?

Baltics : Bulgaria : Central Europe : Czech Republic : Estonia : Hungary : Latvia : Lithuania : Poland : Romania : South East Europe : Europe : Macro View : Capital Flows, FDIs, Capital Controls : Current Account : External Balance :

Markets

Eastern European Currencies

Greece's Fiscal Crisis: Spillover Effects to CEE?

Central European Currencies: Analysts See Polish Zloty Strengthening in 2010

Central Europe : Czech Republic : Hungary : Poland : Romania : South East Europe : Europe : Markets : Currencies :

Eastern Europe: Bond Markets

Greece's Fiscal Crisis: Spillover Effects to CEE?

Central Europe: Sovereign Bond Issuance on the Rise

Central Europe : Czech Republic : Hungary : Poland : Romania : Slovakia : South East Europe : Europe : Markets : Government Bonds :

The Romanian Leu

Whither the Romanian Leu?

Romania : South East Europe : Europe : Markets : Currencies :

Eastern Europe: Equity Markets

CEE Stock Markets: Strong 2009 Performance, Expectations for 2010?

Central Europe : Czech Republic : Hungary : Poland : Romania : Slovakia : South East Europe : Europe : Markets : Equities :

Finance & Banking

Eastern Europe: Banking Sector

South East European Banks: Effects of the Greek Debt Drama

Greece's Fiscal Crisis: Spillover Effects to CEE?

Bulgaria : Central Europe : Croatia : Czech Republic : Hungary : Poland : Romania : Serbia : Slovakia : South East Europe : Europe : Finance and Banking : Banks and Risk Management :

Western European Banks' Support of their Eastern Counterparts

Greek Banks: Could Downgrade to BBB Lead to a Downward Spiral?

Hybrid EU Bank Capital: Twists of Regulators' Burden-Sharing Requirement

Austria : Baltics : Bulgaria : Central Europe : Croatia : Czech Republic : Estonia : Eurozone : Greece : Hungary : Italy : Latvia : Lithuania : Poland : Romania : Serbia : South East Europe : Sweden : Europe : Finance and Banking : Banks and Risk Management :

Geostrategic & Long Term Issues

Political Risk in Eastern Europe

Polish Politics: Reforms Hinge on the 2010 Presidential Vote?

Nationalism and the Far-Right on the Rise in Eastern Europe

Baltics : Bulgaria : Central Europe : Czech Republic : Estonia : Hungary : Latvia : Lithuania : Poland : Romania : Russia and CIS : South East Europe : Ukraine : Europe : Geostrategic and Long Term Issues : Domestic Politics and Political Risks :

Central and Eastern European Demographics

Central and Eastern European Demographics: Impact Of Greying And Emigration

Baltics : Bulgaria : Central Europe : Czech Republic : Estonia : Hungary : Latvia : Lithuania : Poland : Romania : Slovakia : Slovenia : South East Europe : Europe : Geostrategic and Long Term Issues : Macro View : Demographics, Retirement and Health Care : Labor Markets and Productivity :

Key Indicators

IMF
 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - ROMANIA
 (INDEX NUMBER)
123.11,125.9,127.13,127.22,128.73 128.73
IMF
 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE - ROMANIA
 (PERCENT PER ANNU)
4.13,5.27,5.83,6.9,7.47 7.47
data by Moody's

RGE's Q1 2010 Romania Outlook

The Romanian economy experienced a dismal 2009, a sharp turnaround from the booming growth earlier this decade, as capital inflows plunged and external demand waned. GDP fell an estimated 7.5% in 2009, the most severe contraction among EU newcomers aside from the Baltic states, in contrast to the more than 6% average growth rate from 2003-08. To prevent a full-fledged balance-of-payments crisis, Romania turned to an EU/IMF-led coalition for a €20 billion bailout package in March 2009.

Read the Q1 2010 Romania Outlook.

RGE Analysis

Romania: Q1 2010 Outlook

By Mary Stokes Jan 30, 2010

Romania Economic Outlook, Q4 2009

Mary Stokes Oct 07, 2009

Romania Economic Outlook, Q3 2009

Mary Stokes Jul 24, 2009

Global Recession Watch: A Dozen Significant Economies are at Risk of a Hard Landing

Nouriel Roubini Jun 25, 2008

Rocky Road Ahead for Romania

Mary Stokes Feb 22, 2008

EconoMonitors

Europe EconoMonitor

Quiet Before the Storm in the Balkans

Emre Deliveli Feb 23, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

What Greece’s Fiscal Crisis Could Mean for Eastern Europe

Mary Stokes and Jelena Vukotic Feb 22, 2010

Daily Digest

News

Romania pushes ahead with tough reforms

Financial Times  Chris Bryant Mar 15, 2010

News

Romania: January 2010 Balance of Payments and External Debt

National Bank of Romania  Mar 15, 2010

Analysis

Emerging Markets Briefer - Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania: Macro outlook, Monetary policy outlook, FX outlook

Danske Bank  Mar 15, 2010

Analysis

Romania: Exports decline in January, FDI covers current account deficit, Industrial output data

Raiffeisen Research  Mar 15, 2010

News

Romania Has No Immediate Plans for New Bond Sale, Vladescu Says

Bloomberg  Adam Brown Mar 15, 2010

News

Investors see pick up in CEE renewable financing

Reuters  Michael Kahn Mar 12, 2010

Analysis

CEE Currencies Monthly

InvestKredit/Volksbank  Stephan Imre Mar 12, 2010

Analysis

Croatia — Government abandons 2% special personal income tax; Czech Republic —Final 4Q09 GDP q/q growth revised up; Hungary — CPI slowed to 5.7% y/y in February; Poland — Zloty’s gains worry central bank; Romania — Successful Eurobonds issue

ERSTE Bank  Mar 12, 2010

Analysis

Country Focus – Romania: S&P raises Romania´s sovereign credit outlook to stable from negative

Eurobank EFG  Ioannis Gkionis Mar 12, 2010

Analysis

CEE Weekly - Poland: Positive sentiment pushes yields further down; Hungary: More cuts in the pipeline?; Czech Republic: GDP increased by 0.7% in Q4; Croatia: Trade deficit still declining; Romania: EUR 1bn 5-year Eurobond; Turkey: Sadly no IMF agreement

Raiffeisen Research  Mar 12, 2010

News

Romania cracks down on tobacco smugglers

Financial Times  Magda Munteanu Mar 12, 2010

Analysis

Romania: Industry and exports up in January

ERSTE Bank  Mar 12, 2010

News

Romania Bonds Rise on First Day After Record Foreign Offering

Bloomberg  Irina Savu and Piotr Skolimowski Mar 12, 2010

Analysis

Foreign Direct Investment in Central and Eastern Europe: A case of boom and bust?

PricewaterhouseCoopers  Mar 11, 2010

Analysis

Lex: Eastern Europe

Financial Times  Mar 11, 2010

News

Romania Offers Yield Above Croatia’s in Biggest Bond

Bloomberg  Piotr Skolimowski Mar 11, 2010

Analysis

Focus on Turkey — Government opts out of the IMF option; Czech Republic — Domestic demand likely to have acted as a drag on GDP; Hungary — The breakdown of 4Q09 GDP suggests a slow recovery; Romania — February inflation data justifies a 50bp rate

Citigroup Global Markets  Mar 11, 2010

Analysis

Romania economy: Structural reform challenges

Economist Intelligence Unit  Mar 10, 2010

News

Romania’s Rating Outlook Raised to Stable at S&P

Bloomberg  Adam Brown and Tasneem Brogger Mar 10, 2010

Analysis

Romania: Inflation inside the targeted area

ERSTE Bank  Mar 10, 2010

Analysis

Czech Republic — Lower inflation and risk of stronger koruna could delay hike; Romania — Inflation likely to remain under pressure in January

Citigroup Global Markets  Mar 10, 2010

News

S&P Raises Romania Outlook; Cites Focus On Budget Reform

Wall Street Journal  Mar 9, 2010

Analysis

Romania: 4Q09 real GDP – detailed data

ERSTE Bank  Eugen Sinca Mar 3, 2010

Analysis

Romania: Bank Lending Survey, February 2010

National Bank of Romania  Mar 8, 2010

Analysis

Romania: GDP contracted by 7.1% in 2009, analyst confirms 1% 2010 GDP growth forecast

Eurobank Research  Ioannis Gkionis and EFG Eurobank Research Mar 8, 2010

Research

wiiw Forecast for Central, East and Southeast Europe, 2010-2012: Crisis Is Over, but Problems Loom Ahead

Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies  Mar 5, 2010

Analysis

Croatia: Successful government bond placement; Czech Republic: 2H10 bond issuance will have to be heavy; Hungary: 4Q09 GDP details and February CPI in focus next week; Poland: 4Q GDP data in line with expectations; Romania: Government yields keep falling

ERSTE Bank  Mar 5, 2010

Analysis

Energy security in Europe: Central questions

Economist  Mar 4, 2010

Analysis

CEE Weekly - Poland: Strong demand despite looming rate hikes; Hungary: Positive sentiment - for now; Czech Rep: Bond issuance calendar more slim in Q2; Croatia: Negative trend in retail sales slows down; Romania: Low investments in Q4

Raiffeisen Research  Mar 5, 2010

Analysis

EMEA Weekly: It's all about sovereign debt worries; Inflation week in CEE; Stay sidelined in CEE vs. PIIGS spreads for now

Danske Bank  Lars Christensen Mar 5, 2010

News

Austrian Central Bank: Eastern European writedowns haven't peaked

Reuters  Boris Groendahl Mar 3, 2010

Analysis

Romania: Real GDP backed by exports and government consumption in 4Q09

ERSTE Bank  Mar 3, 2010

News

Romania to Cut Main Interest Rate ‘Prudently,’ Croitoru Says

Bloomberg  Adam Brown and Irina Savu Mar 3, 2010

News

Romanian GDP Contraction Slowed in Fourth Quarter

Bloomberg  Adam Brown and Irina Savu Mar 3, 2010

News

Romania Revives Eurobond, Seeks Further Sale in 2010

Bloomberg  Irina Savu, Caroline Hyde and Piotr Skolimowski Mar 2, 2010

Analysis

Romania December 2009 Monthly Bulletin: Summary of Main Economic Developments and Monetary Policy, Credit Institutions in 2009, Legislative Index, Statistical Section

National Bank of Romania  Mar 1, 2010

Analysis

Romania February 2010 Inflation Report

National Bank of Romania  Mar 1, 2010

Analysis

Romania Market Outlook Daily Report

Raiffeisen Research  Mar 1, 2010

News

Romania's public workers plan strikes

Southeast European Times  Feb 26, 2010

Analysis

Romania: Financial Sector Stability Assessment

IMF  Feb 26, 2010

Analysis

Poland: MPC sees balanced inflation risks; Hungary: 375 – was that it ? Czech Republic: Demand for CZK government bonds strong; Croatia: Still low inflationary pressures; Romania: IMF disburses EUR 2.4 bn

Raiffeisen Research  Feb 26, 2010

Analysis

CEE Insights - Croatia: 4Q GDP down 4.4% y/y; Czech Republic: Government bond auction drew heavy attention; Hungary: Investments declined 11% y/y in 4Q09; Poland: January retail sales disappointed; Romania: Consolidated state budget ended Jan in surplus

ERSTE Bank  Feb 26, 2010

Analysis

EMEA Weekly: South Eastern Europe - the next trouble spot?

Danske Bank  Lars Christensen Feb 26, 2010

News

East Europe for more energy security: Hungary

EU Business  Feb 25, 2010

Analysis

CEE Financial Market Report: Economic Expectations for Central and Eastern Europe Decline

ZEW (Centre for European Economic Research) and Erste Bank  Feb 24, 2010

Analysis

Fitch Downgrades 3 Greek Banks' Covered Bonds; Remain on RWN

Fitch Ratings (subscription may be required)  Feb 23, 2010

News

Fitch Takes Rating Actions on Greek Banks' Subsidiaries

Fitch Ratings (subscription may be required)  Feb 24, 2010

Analysis

Romania: Second and Third Reviews under the Stand-By Arrangement, Request Rephasing and Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion

IMF  Feb 23, 2010

Opinions

Quiet before the storm in the Balkans

Hurriyet  Emre Deliveli Feb 21, 2010

Analysis

ZEW-Erste Group Bank Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) - Economic Expectations for Central and Eastern Europe Decline

ZEW - Centre for European Economic Research  Feb 19, 2010

Analysis

CEE - The EMU divergence trade

Danske Bank  Lars Christensen and Pär Magnusson Feb 23, 2010

Analysis

CEE Financial Market Report: Economic Expectations for CEE Remain Optimistic

ZEW (Centre for European Economic Research) and Erste Bank  Feb 22, 2010

Analysis

Eastern Europe economy: After Greece, further from the euro

Economist Intelligence Unit  Feb 22, 2010

Analysis

Romania: Q1 2010 Outlook

RGE  Mary Stokes Jan 30, 2010

Blogs

What Greece’s Fiscal Crisis Could Mean for Eastern Europe

Roubini Global Economics  Mary Stokes and Jelena Vukotic Feb 22, 2010

Analysis

New Europe - Bulgaria: Disciplined fiscal policy improves ERM II entry outlook; Poland: Economy to expand further in 2010; Romania: International organizations resume lending; Serbia: Interim trade agreement finally unblocked

Eurobank Research  EFG Eurobank Research Team Feb 22, 2010

Analysis

Gazprom Playing With Poor Options on South Stream in the Black Sea

Jamestown Foundation  Vladimir Socor Feb 22, 2010

Research

South-Eastern Europe: Lessons from the global economic crisis

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development  Peter Sanfey Summary Feb 19, 2010

News

Central/Eastern European real estate companies see value halved

Financial Times  Daniel Thomas and Alice Ross Feb 19, 2010

Analysis

CEEMEA: Greece and CEE – Contagion

Morgan Stanley  Feb 19, 2010

Analysis

IMF Completes Second and Third Review Under Stand-By Arrangement with Romania and Approves US$3.32 Billion Disbursement

IMF  Feb 19, 2010

Analysis

CEE Weekly - Poland: Positive industrial production data; Hungary: The last cut? Czech Rep: GDP drops again; Croatia: Facing the challenges in tourism in 2010; Romania: Low C/A deficit in 2009; Turkey: Political tensions on the rise

Raiffeisen Research  Feb 19, 2010

Analysis

Russia Alleges Romanian Interest in South Stream Membership as Romania Inks LNG Deal

Global Insight  Feb 19, 2010

Analysis

CEE Insights - Croatia: Expecting more details on government bond refinancing; Czech Rep: Retail sales situation grim; Hungary: Central bank to cut base rate; Poland: Industrial output posted another positive surprise; Romania: Eurobond issue in 1Q10

ERSTE Bank  Feb 19, 2010

News

Gazprom invites Transgaz to join SouthStream

Reuters  Feb 18, 2010

News

Eastern European Investor Confidence Falls as Recovery Falters

Bloomberg  Adam Brown Feb 19, 2010

News

Gazprom’s South Stream: Romania in, Bulgaria out?

EurActiv  Feb 19, 2010

Analysis

Long-term Outlook, Romania: 2010, the return to growth

ERSTE Bank  Feb 18, 2010

Analysis

Special Report: Fiscal situation in CEE

ERSTE Bank  Feb 18, 2010

Analysis

CESEE Quarterly Q4 2009 – Q1 2010

Volksbank  Jan 29, 2010

News

Russia tells small players to step back from missile shield stand-off

EurActiv  Feb 16, 2010

Analysis

Emerging Markets Briefer: Greek worries hit CEE currencies; Growth worries push down yields and rates; EM stock markets hit by rising risk aversion

Danske Bank  Feb 16, 2010

Analysis

SEE exposure to Greece: Much ado about nothing or a serious threat?

Bank Austria  Feb 1, 2010

News

East Europe’s Recovery to Be ‘Bumpy and Gradual,’ HSBC Says

Bloomberg  Adam Brown Feb 15, 2010

Analysis

All Quiet on the Missiles for Romania Front

ISN Security Watch  Jeremy Druker Feb 12, 2010

Analysis

CEE Weekly - Poland: More optimistic euro convergence plan; Hungary: Uncertain budget outlook; Czech: Inflation starts lower then expected in 2010, Croatia: Retail trade declines by 15.3% in 2009; Romania: Economic activity bottoms out

Raiffeisen Research  Feb 12, 2010

Analysis

Romania: Temporary spike in inflation rate

ERSTE Bank  Feb 12, 2010

Analysis

Romania: GDP continued to fall in 4Q09

ERSTE Bank  Feb 12, 2010

Analysis

Romania: Real GDP fell further in Q4 2009 and inflation increased in January 2010

Raiffeisen Research  Feb 12, 2010

Analysis

Focus on Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey; Czech Republic — Dec industrial production revised down; Romania — Private consumption likely to remain a worry for GDP; Slovakia — Seasonal factors behind Dec trade deficit

Citigroup Global Markets  Feb 12, 2010

Analysis

CEE poised for success, if the world goes along

Czech Business Weekly  Company, Interview with Raffaella Tenconi and Chief economist of Wood Feb 9, 2010

News

East Europe’s Recovery ‘Limps’ as Czech Slump Deepens

Bloomberg  Adam Brown and Zoltan Simon Feb 12, 2010

News

EU gives Romania an extra year to cut budget deficit

Southeast European Times  Feb 9, 2010

News

Russia in stand-by mode over US missile plans in Romania

EU Observer  Valentina Pop Feb 8, 2010

News

East Europe’s Recovery Continued Last Quarter, Surveys Show

Bloomberg  Zoltan Simon Feb 11, 2010

News

East Europe Faces ‘Vicious Cycle’ on Sparse Loans, Capital Says

Bloomberg  Agnes Lovasz Feb 11, 2010

Analysis

Romania Economic Overview - January 2010

Raiffeisen Research  Jan 10, 2010

Analysis

Focus on Kazakhstan — Recovery well on track; Czech Republic — FX market turnover declined somewhat in January; Poland — Government wants to cut fiscal deficit below 3% in 2012

Citigroup  Feb 10, 2010

News

Romanian Government Aims to Sell Debt in Euros Within a Month

Bloomberg  Adam Brown and Irina Savu Feb 9, 2010

News

Debt troubles hit central Europe

Financial Times  Jan Cienski and Chris Bryant Feb 8, 2010

News

EU gives Romania an extra year to rein in deficit

EU Business  Feb 8, 2010

Analysis

Focus on Turkey — Managing expectations via core measures; Czech Republic — General election set for the end of May 2010; Romania — NBR’s forecasts seem supportive of further easing; Slovakia — Industrial production growth set to continue rising

Citigroup Global Markets  Feb 8, 2010

Research

In the wake of the crisis: dealing with distressed debt across the transition region

EBRD  Feb 1, 2010

Analysis

Romania: Central bank to stick further to its managed floating FX regime

ERSTE Bank  Feb 5, 2010

News

Romanian Central Bank Raises 2010 Inflation Forecast on Tobacco

Bloomberg  Adam Brown and Irina Savu Feb 5, 2010

Analysis

Poland: Bond yields up again after strong decline; Hungary: Q4 GDP coming up; Czech Republic: CNB expects rate hikes in H2; Croatia: Waiting for trade recovery; Romania: NBR cuts key rate to 7%

Raiffeisen Research  Feb 5, 2010

Opinions

Romania: Construction Contraction

Oxfore Business Group  Feb 4, 2010

Analysis

Focus on Czech Republic — Lower bank net foreign assets not a concern; Poland — Government revises GDP forecasts; Romania — No surprise from NBR as it opts for a 50bp cut; Turkey — January inflation: A high number but no major surprises

Citigroup  Feb 4, 2010

Analysis

Romania: Fitch improves Romania’s rating outlook to “stable” from “negative”

Raiffeisen Research  Feb 3, 2010

Analysis

Press Releases of the Board of the National Bank of Romania - February 3, 2010 meeting

National Bank of Romania  Feb 3, 2010

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