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Russia, CIS and the Caucasus

Macroeconomy

Russian Currency Reserves and Sovereign Wealth

Is the Russian Government Starting to Save Again?

Russia's FX Reserves: Diversifying from the Dollar?

Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Finance and Banking : Macroeconomy : FX Reserves and Sovereign Wealth :

Belarus: Economic Profile

Belarus's External Sector Troubles: Only Short-Term Fixes?

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Finance and Banking : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Markets :

The Caucasus: Economic Profiles

Georgia: On a Steady Growth Path?

Has Azerbaijan's Energy Sector Peaked?

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Markets :

Central Asia: Economic Profiles

Kazakhstan: Economy Continues to Grow in 2011

Mongolia: Economy Booming

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Finance and Banking : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy :

The IMF Rescues the CIS

Ukraine's IMF Program Stalls: More Funding Risks Ahead?

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Macroeconomy : Current Financial Crisis : IMF and International Economic Institutions : Systemic Risk, Vulnerabilities and Asset Bubbles :

Russia: Monetary Policy

Russian Central Bank Cuts Refi Rate, Hikes Deposit Rate

Russian Inflation Falls to Low of 4.2% in January

Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Emerging Markets : Europe : Macroeconomy : Monetary Policy and Inflation :

Russia: Trade and External Balance

Russia's Current Account Surplus Set to Benefit From High Oil Prices, Capital Outflows Persist

Is Russia Moving Closer to WTO Membership?

Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Current Account : Energy Security and Policy : International Trade and Globalization : Trade and External Balance :

Eastern Europe: External Accounts

Eastern Europe: Will High Current Account Deficits Return?

Capital Inflows to Emerging Europe: Returning, Albeit Unevenly

Baltics : Commonwealth of Independent States : Czech Republic : Emerging Europe and CIS : Eurozone : Hungary : Poland : Romania : Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Southeast Europe : Europe : Macroeconomy : Capital Flows, FDIs, Capital Controls : Current Account : Trade and External Balance :

Russia: The Ruble

Russia Loosens Controls on the Ruble, Widens Trading Range

Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Macroeconomy : Markets : Currencies : Monetary Policy and Inflation : Past Financial Crisis : Systemic Risk, Vulnerabilities and Asset Bubbles :

Russia: Economic Profile

Russian Industrial Production Slows in December

Russian Economy Grows at 4.3% in 2011

Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Emerging Markets : Europe : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :

Russia: Fiscal Policy

Russian Fiscal Policy: Deficits to Continue Through 2014

Russian Debt: Government Issues Ruble-Denominated Eurobond

Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Macroeconomy : Fiscal Policy :

Kyrgyzstan: Economic Profile

Kyrgyzstan's Parliament Approves New Government After Months of Uncertainty

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :

Kazakhstan: Economic Profile

Kazakhstan: Inflationary Pressures Further Eases to 7.4% y/y in December

Cracks Appearing in Kazakhstan's Political Scene?

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :

Azerbaijan: Economic Profile

Has Azerbaijan's Energy Sector Peaked?

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Macroeconomy :

Ukraine: Economic Profile

Ukrainian Industrial Output Is Set to Slow in 2012

Ukraine's External Sector: Will Trade Deficit Narrow in H2 2011?

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Frontier Markets : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle : Monetary Policy and Inflation :

CIS Countries: Economic Profiles

CIS Macro View: Growth Picks Up

CIS Inflation Watch 2011

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :

Russia: Consumption

Russia: Household Consumption Picks up in December, Outlook?

Russian Demographics and Labor Productivity: 'Hypermortality' Weighing on Growth?

Eurozone : Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle : Trade and External Balance :

Frontier Markets

Frontier Markets: How Correlated with Global Markets and Each Other?

Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Sub-Saharan Africa : Europe : Frontier Markets : Middle East and Africa : Macroeconomy : Markets : Capital Flows, FDIs, Capital Controls : Equity : Trade and External Balance :

Ukraine and the IMF

Ukraine's IMF Program Stalls: More Funding Risks Ahead?

Ukraine's President Vetoes New Tax Code Amid Protests

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Frontier Markets : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Current Financial Crisis : IMF and International Economic Institutions : Systemic Risk, Vulnerabilities and Asset Bubbles :

Russian Demographics

Russian Demographics and Labor Productivity: 'Hypermortality' Weighing on Growth?

Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Demographics : Labor Markets and Productivity :

Markets

Belarus: Economic Profile

Belarus's External Sector Troubles: Only Short-Term Fixes?

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Finance and Banking : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Markets :

The Caucasus: Economic Profiles

Georgia: On a Steady Growth Path?

Has Azerbaijan's Energy Sector Peaked?

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Markets :

Emerging Markets: Economic Profile

Polish Macro View: Economy Grew Robust 4.3% in 2011

How Fast Is Brazil Decelerating?

China : Northeast Asia : Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : South Africa : Southeast Asia : Taiwan : Asia/Pacific : Emerging Markets : Middle East and Africa : Markets :

Russia: The Ruble

Russia Loosens Controls on the Ruble, Widens Trading Range

Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Macroeconomy : Markets : Currencies : Monetary Policy and Inflation : Past Financial Crisis : Systemic Risk, Vulnerabilities and Asset Bubbles :

Central Asia: Energy Sector

Cracks Appearing in Kazakhstan's Political Scene?

Has Azerbaijan's Energy Sector Peaked?

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Geostrategy : Markets : Commodities : Energy : Energy Security and Policy : Natural Gas : Oil : Oil and Energy :

Ukraine: The Hryvnia (currency)

Ukraine: The Hryvnia Conundrum

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Markets : Currencies :

Russia: Energy Sector

Russia's Oil Production: Is Recovery Sustainable?

Will Changes in Russian Oil Taxes Affect Production?

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Geostrategy : Markets : Commodities : Energy : Energy Security and Policy : Oil and Energy :

Global Military Spending

Global Military Spending Still on the Rise?

China : Gulf Cooperation Council : Northeast Asia : Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : United States : Advanced Economies : Asia/Pacific : Emerging Markets : Europe : Middle East and Africa : North America : Geostrategy : Markets : Defense Policy and Terrorism : Foreign and Domestic Political Risk : Sectors and Industries :

CIS Currency Trends

Ukraine's President Vetoes New Tax Code Amid Protests

Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Middle East and Africa : Markets : Currencies :

More Russia, CIS and the Caucasus / Markets

Finance & Banking

Russian Currency Reserves and Sovereign Wealth

Is the Russian Government Starting to Save Again?

Russia's FX Reserves: Diversifying from the Dollar?

Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Finance and Banking : Macroeconomy : FX Reserves and Sovereign Wealth :

Belarus: Economic Profile

Belarus's External Sector Troubles: Only Short-Term Fixes?

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Finance and Banking : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Markets :

Central Asia: Economic Profiles

Kazakhstan: Economy Continues to Grow in 2011

Mongolia: Economy Booming

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Finance and Banking : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy :

Kazakhstan: Banking Sector

Credit Starting to Unlock in Kazakhstan?

Kazakhstan: Inflationary Pressures Further Eases to 7.4% y/y in December

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Frontier Markets : Finance and Banking : Banks :

Russia: Banking Sector

Russian Banking System: Revival in Credit Growth

More Consolidation On the Way for Russian Banking Sector?

Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Emerging Markets : Europe : Finance and Banking : Banks :

Ukraine Banks

Ukraine Banking Sector: On A Steady Path to Recovery?

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Finance and Banking : Banks :

More Russia, CIS and the Caucasus / Finance & Banking

Geostrategy

Belarus: Economic Profile

Belarus's External Sector Troubles: Only Short-Term Fixes?

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Finance and Banking : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Markets :

The Caucasus: Economic Profiles

Georgia: On a Steady Growth Path?

Has Azerbaijan's Energy Sector Peaked?

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Markets :

Central Asia: Economic Profiles

Kazakhstan: Economy Continues to Grow in 2011

Mongolia: Economy Booming

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Finance and Banking : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy :

Belarus Economic Profile

Belarus's External Sector Troubles: Only Short-Term Fixes?

Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Geostrategy : Foreign and Domestic Political Risk :

Russia and the U.S.

U.S. Scales Down Missile Shield in Eastern Europe

Baltics : Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Eurozone : Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : United States : Europe : North America : Geostrategy : Defense Policy and Terrorism : Foreign Policy and Geostrategic Risks : Nuclear Proliferation :

Russia: Trade and External Balance

Russia's Current Account Surplus Set to Benefit From High Oil Prices, Capital Outflows Persist

Is Russia Moving Closer to WTO Membership?

Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Current Account : Energy Security and Policy : International Trade and Globalization : Trade and External Balance :

Russia: Domestic Politics

How Serious Is Putin's Reform Push?

Putin Promises Reform in the Wake of Protests: Will it Bring More Votes?

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Geostrategy : Foreign and Domestic Political Risk :

Russia: Foreign Policy

Can Sino-Russian Ties Extend Beyond Resource Codependence?

Can EU-Russia Ties Shift From Energy Focus to Modernization?

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Emerging Markets : Europe : Geostrategy : Energy Security and Policy : Foreign Policy and Geostrategic Risks :

Turkey: Foreign Policy

Turkey's Foreign Policy: Ties With France Ruptured by Genocide Ruling

Palestinian UNESCO Membership Takes Away the Possibility of Renewed Talks

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Turkey : Europe : Geostrategy : Foreign and Domestic Political Risk : Foreign Policy and Geostrategic Risks :

Political Risk in Eastern Europe

Poland's Civic Platform Re-Elected: Will Victory Aid Fiscal Consolidation?

Czech Republic Politics: Government Avoids Collapse

Baltics : Commonwealth of Independent States : Czech Republic : Emerging Europe and CIS : Eurozone : Hungary : Poland : Romania : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Southeast Europe : Emerging Markets : Europe : Frontier Markets : Geostrategy : Foreign and Domestic Political Risk :

Russia and the CIS Countries

Russia-Georgia Relations and U.S. Senate Approval of Resolution Supporting Georgia

Kyrgyzstan's Parliament Approves New Government After Months of Uncertainty

Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Geostrategy :

CIS Countries: Economic Profiles

CIS Macro View: Growth Picks Up

CIS Inflation Watch 2011

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :

Russia: Consumption

Russia: Household Consumption Picks up in December, Outlook?

Russian Demographics and Labor Productivity: 'Hypermortality' Weighing on Growth?

Eurozone : Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle : Trade and External Balance :

Ukraine: Domestic Politics

Tymoshenko Verdict Reflects Worsened Domestic Political Situation

Ukraine: Tilting Between Russia and EU

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Emerging Markets : Europe : Geostrategy : Energy Security and Policy : Foreign and Domestic Political Risk :

Russia and the EU

U.S. Scales Down Missile Shield in Eastern Europe

Baltics : Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Eurozone : Nordics : Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Geostrategy : Energy Security and Policy : Foreign Policy and Geostrategic Risks :

Russian Demographics

Russian Demographics and Labor Productivity: 'Hypermortality' Weighing on Growth?

Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Demographics : Labor Markets and Productivity :

Georgia: Domestic Politics

Georgia: On a Steady Growth Path?

Russia-Georgia Relations and U.S. Senate Approval of Resolution Supporting Georgia

Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Europe : Geostrategy :

Emerging Europe and CIS Outlook Update: Recovery Takes Root

The region’s growth will become more broad-based and entrenched but remain below-trend, with Turkey still the star, set for another year of above-trend growth. Economic recovery continues to rely on the eurozone core’s demand for exports, as weak credit growth and excess spare capacity remain headwinds. Inflationary pressures have prompted a wide range of policy responses, as central banks face a tradeoff between meeting inflation targets and supporting domestic demand.

Read the latest Emerging Europe and Commonwealth of Independent States Outlook Update

Russia, CIS and the Caucasus Country Pages: Kazakhstan

Economic Research

Geopolitical Risks Expose Oil Market Stress Points

By Rachel Ziemba Jan 6, 2012

Global Economic Outlook

Outlook Overview: No Such Thing as a Free Lunch

By Christian Menegatti, Rachel Ziemba and Nouriel Roubini Dec 11, 2011

Global Economic Outlook

Russia Outlook: Electoral Cycle Boosts Growth for Now

By Tetiana Sears and Rachel Ziemba Dec 8, 2011

Europe Weekly

UK’s MPC Meeting; Norway’s Monetary Policy; Portugal’s Budget Plan; Hungary’s Credit Rating; Russia’s Retail Sales; EZ Calendar

By Katharina Jungen, Parul Walia, Mikko Forss, Jelena Vukotic, Rachel Ziemba and Tetiana Sears Oct 21, 2011

Economic Research

Tymoshenko’s Sentence a Test of Ukrainian Policy Making

By Tetiana Sears Oct 14, 2011

Economic Research

Russian Politics: Even More of the Same?

By Tetiana Sears and Rachel Ziemba Sep 29, 2011

Global Economic Outlook

Emerging Europe and CIS Outlook Update: Weaker Growth Across the Region

By Rachel Ziemba, Jelena Vukotic and David Rogovic Sep 16, 2011

Global Economic Outlook

Russia Outlook Update: Global Headwinds Loom Large

By David Rogovic Sep 15, 2011

Economic Research

Russia-Led Customs Union: Costs Could Outweigh Opportunities

By Tetiana Sears and Mansur Ziganshin Aug 30, 2011

Economic Research

Strengths and Vulnerabilities in Emerging Europe: A Balance Sheet Approach

By David Rogovic Aug 19, 2011

Central Bank Watch

Summary Table: RGE Policy Rate Forecasts and Market Interbank Rate Expectations

By Michael Manetta and the RGE Economic Research Team Aug 19, 2011

Central Bank Watch

Central Bank of Russia: August Update

By David Rogovic Aug 19, 2011

Europe Weekly

Europe-Wide Growth Slowdown

By Elisa Parisi-Capone, Katharina Jungen, Mikko Forss, Jelena Vukotic, Parul Walia, William Oman, Sehaj Malik, Filipe Albuquerque Aug 19, 2011

Europe Weekly

PMIs Paint Gloomy Picture, With Few Exceptions

By William Oman, Elisa Parisi-Capone, Parul Walia, Mikko Forss, David Rogovic and Jelena Vukotic Aug 5, 2011

Mena Focus

MENA Looks for New Markets: Trade Ties Shifting Slowly

By Maya Senussi, Rachel Ziemba and John Prosser Aug 5, 2011

Economic Research

Venezuela’s Oil Reserves Power Play: Saudi Arabia Production Still Trumps

By Rachel Ziemba and Gary Clark Jul 20, 2011

Europe Weekly

Greek Debt; Volatile Turkish Inflation; Fragile Irish Growth; Russia's Weak Fixed Investment; Poland's Shale Gas Bonanza; Denmark's Bank Woes

By Mikko Forss, William Oman, Elisa Parisi-Capone, David Rogovic, Oritse J. Uku and Jelena Vukotic Jul 8, 2011

Europe Weekly

Daily Digest

News

Poland: No rate hikes, no cuts; Hungary: Rates unchanged, wording hawkish; Czech sovereign rating upgraded; Romania: Limited upward pressures on yields; Russia: Slowing inflation does not help the rouble; Turkey: TCMB on hold

Raiffeisen Research Aug 26, 2011

Analysis

Russia: CPI Trend Makes Tightening Unlikely; Turkey: No Rate Cuts for Now; Poland: Slower Growth to Trigger Rate Cuts; Hungary: Growth Below 2% Until 2013

BNP Paribas Aug 26, 2011

Analysis

Free Trade between Ukraine and the EU: an impact assessment

PASOS Olga Shumylo 2007

Analysis

Major uncertainties cloud Russia’s economic growth prospects; Uncertainty on global markets could postpone government plans to sell shares in state-owned companies

Bank of Finland Aug 26, 2011

News

Yanukovych: Ukraine chooses Europe, will join EU in 10 years Read more: http://www.kyivpost.com/news/nation/detail/111239/#ixzz1VlXRAGEG

Kyiv Post Aug 19, 2011

Analysis

Nabucco Project Can Advance Faster Than Rivals

Jamestown Foundation Vladimir Socor Aug 19, 2011

Analysis

Strengths and Vulnerabilities in Emerging Europe: A Balance Sheet Approach

Roubini Global Economics David Rogovic Aug 19, 2011

Analysis

Russia: State set to divest a majority stake in rail freight company; Customers demand lower gas prices from Gazprom; Gazprom lowers price of gas sold to Belarus; similar discount for Ukraine unlikely

Bank of Finland Aug 19, 2011

Analysis

EMEA Weekly: MNB on hold, but rate cut looks tempting; TCMB on hold as well following the interim meeting; New EMEA FX forecasts

Danske Bank Aug 18, 2011

Research

The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Public Expenditures on Education and Health in the Economies of the Former Soviet Union

CASE- Center for Social and Economic Research Alexander Chubrik et al Aug 17, 2011

News

CEE Insights: Czech Republic: 2Q11 GDP to be released next week; Hungary: Lower July CPI on non-core items; Poland: Zloty suffering from market mood swings; Romania: Significant drop in inflation; Turkey: Economic activity losing steam

Erste Bank (free registration required) Aug 12, 2011

Analysis

EMEA Weekly: Polish central bank likely to CUT rates over the coming year; Rate hikes nowhere on the EMEA horizon; Polish macro numbers to show slowing; Hungarian and Czech Q2 GDP on EMEA economic menu; Full scale panic avoided in rouble rates markets

Danske Markets Research Aug 11, 2011

News

Poland: Positive sentiment on bonds; Hungary: CHF debt in focus; Czech Republic: CNB in no rush; Romania: NBR remained on hold; Russia; Weaker economy in summer; Turkey: Lira weakens after surprise cut

Raiffeisen Research Aug 08, 2011

News