skip to main content

Russia

Macro View

Markets

Finance & Banking

Geostrategic & Long Term Issues

RGE's Q3 2010 Russia Outlook

Positive base effects from 2009’s contraction will boost y/y growth in H1, but RGE believes that Russia will grow well below potential, by about 4.6%, in 2010 as a whole. Fuelled by an increase in real incomes, government and private consumption will be the largest contributor to growth as investment remains below trend. In fact, stronger consumption trends led RGE to revise our forecast up slightly, but we note that growth will decelerate in H2 2010 and in 2011. Russia’s underinvestment, compounding that of the past, along with worsening demographics, poses a future vulnerability, implying that potential output growth may fall if reforms are not taken.

Read the Q3 2010 Russia Outlook

RGE Analysis

CROSS ASSET MONTHLY

Credit: Who Gets Their Pound of Flesh?

David Nowakowski Aug 31, 2010

Europe Weekly Spotlight: Eurozone Q2 Growth; Is Germany Rebalancing?; Polls Near in Latvia and Sweden

By Elisa Parisi-Capone, Katharina Jungen, Mary Stokes, Parul Walia, David Rogovic and Eric Persson Aug 13, 2010

Europe Weekly Spotlight: Greek Loan Review; Depressed French Consumers; UK Financial Reform

By Elisa Parisi-Capone, Katharina Jungen, Parul Walia, Rachel Ziemba, David Rogovic, Mary Stokes and Frances Donald Aug 6, 2010

RGE STRATEGY VIEW

Q3 2010 Scenario Analysis: Macroeconomic Factors & Asset Class Investment Implications

By Christian Menegatti, Rachel Ziemba, Arnab Das, Arun Motianey, Gina Sanchez, Natalia Gurushina and David Nowakowski Aug 2, 2010

Europe Weekly Spotlight: EZ Corporate Credit Conditions; Inflation Risks in Russia

By Elisa Parisi-Capone, Katharina Jungen, Rachel Ziemba, David Rogovic, Mikko Forss and Jelena Vukotic Jul 30, 2010

RGE STRATEGY VIEW

Cross Asset Monthly: A Summer of Discontent: Navigating the Tug of War Between Greed and Fear

By Arnab Das, Natalia Gurushina, Arun Motianey, David Nowakowski, Gina Sanchez and Jennifer Kapila Jul 27, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Russia: Q3 2010 Outlook

By Rachel Ziemba Jul 10, 2010

Time to Position for Higher Rates in Russia

By Natalia Gurushina Apr 13, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Russia: Q2 2010 Outlook

By Rachel Ziemba Apr 12, 2010

RGE STRATEGY FLASH

Implications of Poland's Tragedy for the Zloty

By Natalia Gurushina Apr 11, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Russia: Q1 2010 Outlook

By Rachel Ziemba Jan 30, 2010

Comparing 2010 Growth Forecasts for Major Economies

By Rachel Ziemba, Elisa Parisi-Capone, Christian Menegatti, Arpitha Bykere, Bertrand Delgado and Mikka Pineda Jan 21, 2010

Russia Economic Outlook, Q4 2009

Rachel Ziemba Oct 7, 2009

Russia Economic Outlook, Q3 2009

Rachel Ziemba Jul 24, 2009

BRICs in the Monitor

RGE Analyst Team Jun 16, 2009

Russia's Reserve Currency Idea

Rachel Ziemba Jun 8, 2009

China's Resource Buys

Rachel Ziemba Feb 21, 2009

Russia and Kazakhstan: A Tale of Two Devaluations

Rachel Ziemba and Kavitha Cherian Feb 8, 2009

Can Russia Avoid a Hard Landing?

Rachel Ziemba Nov 28, 2008

Russia's Bailout Package Just Keeps Getting Bigger

Rachel Ziemba and Kavitha Cherian Oct 8, 2008

Russia: In Crisis Mode

Rachel Ziemba and Kavitha Cherian Sep 18, 2008

Russia Goes Global

Rachel Ziemba May 5, 2008

EconoMonitors

Europe EconoMonitor

Ukraine: The Star of the East

Walter Molano Jun 17, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Russia and New Zealand Will Soon Engage in Formal Free Trade Discussions

Sarah Miers Jun 4, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Growth Surprises and Drivers Are Changing in Eastern Europe

Marcus Svedberg Apr 20, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

The True Causes Underlying the Moscow Metro Bombings

John Daly Apr 1, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Ukraine: Swinging Away

Walter Molano Mar 2, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Ukraine Elections Saga Not Yet Over

Kavitha Cherian Feb 25, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Recovering Markets

Marcus Svedberg Jan 26, 2010

Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor

Does Russia Belong in the BRICs?

Anders Aslund Jan 25, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

The Myth of Nabucco: Greed, Delusion, and Geopolitics

John Daly Jan 7, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

China Secures Gas Supply From Turkmenistan: Who’s the True Winner?

Philip H. de Leon Dec 23, 2009

Europe EconoMonitor

A New Normal for Eastern Europe

Marcus Svedberg Dec 21, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Consequences of Exposure to Violence

Ajay Shah Dec 16, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

How Much Unity in the United Arab Emirates?

Michael Moran and Rachel Ziemba Dec 9, 2009

Europe EconoMonitor

Russia's Economy Slows in November

Edward Hugh Dec 6, 2009

Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor

Control High Inflation, Not Exchange Rates

Anders Aslund Sep 16, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Bank Rossii Eases Further as Russia's Economy Contracts at a Record Rate

Edward Hugh Sep 16, 2009

Daily Digest

News

Ruble May Slide 7% on Oil Drop, MIG Says: Technical Analysis

Bloomberg  Emma O’Brien Sep 02, 2010

News

Russian Government Rethinks Energy Policies

The Moscow News  Anna Sulimina Sep 02, 2010

News

Russian Panic Buying Fuels Food Price Speculation

Bloomberg  Lyubov Pronina and Ilya Arkhipov Sep 02, 2010

News

VTB Posts Record Six-Month Profit as Russian Economy Recovers

Bloomberg  Denis Maternovsky Sep 02, 2010

Analysis

Russia: August CPI Totals 0.6% m/m

Alfa Bank  Sep 02, 2010

News

Russia Plans to Sell VTB, Sberbank, Rosselkhoz Stakes

Bloomberg  Maria Levitov and Anton Doroshev Sep 02, 2010

News

Russia Unlikely to Raise Rates, Ending ‘Easy Money’

Bloomberg  Maria Levitov and Anton Doroshev Sep 02, 2010

News

Forced to Sell

Russia Profile  Tai Adelaja Sep 01, 2010

News

Key Political Risks to Watch in Russia

Reuters  Sep 01, 2010

Opinions

How to Make Peace With Georgia

The Moscow Times  Dmitry Trenin Aug 09, 2010

News

Is There A Foundation For Peace Between Russia And Georgia?

RFE/RL  Ghia Nodia Aug 31, 2010

News

IMF Gold Assets Fall 16.85 Tons as Russia Adds to its Holdings

Bloomberg  Claudia Carpenter Sep 01, 2010

News

Russia Manufacturing Expands Most since April 2008

Bloomberg  Maria Levitov and Brad Cook Sep 01, 2010

News

Russia Aug Economic Sentiment at 4-mth Low - Sberbank

Reuters  Toni Vorobyova Aug 31, 2010

News

Russia’s Big Asset Sales in 2010 Unlikely

Reuters  Lidia Kelly and John Bowker Aug 31, 2010

News

Russia Rates Held; Sees No Price Threat from Drought

Reuters  Toni Vorobyova Aug 31, 2010

News

Russia to Raise Car-Import Tax to Boost Domestic Production

Bloomberg  Anastasia Ustinova Aug 31, 2010

News

Childfree at a Price

Russia Profile  Svetlana Kononova Aug 31, 2010

Analysis

Russia: Oil & Gas - European Customers Seek More Discounts

URALSIB Capital  Aug 31, 2010

News

Russia Leaves Rates Unchanged Even as Inflation Looms

Bloomberg  Maria Levitov Aug 31, 2010

News

Not out of the woods yet

The Moscow Times  Ed Bentley Aug 30, 2010

News

Seasonal Slowdown Worsened by Long Hot Summer

Russia Today  Aug 30, 2010

News

Russian Oil Exchange the Way of the Future

Russia Today  Aug 30, 2010

News

Food Costs Soar Even Though Russian Grain Is Getting Cheaper

The Moscow Times  Tom Washington Aug 27, 2010

Analysis

Russia: July 2010 CBR Statistics – No Movement as Expected

URALSIB Capital  Aug 30, 2010

News

Russia to Boost Oil Exports to China with New Siberian Pipeline

Bloomberg  Jason Corcoran Aug 29, 2010

News

Putin Bonds Trail Emerging Markets for 7th Month: Russia Credit

Bloomberg  Michael Patterson and Jason Corcoran Aug 30, 2010

News

Kudrin Says Central Bank Can’t Help as Inflation Accelerates

Bloomberg  Paul Abelsky and Maria Levitov Aug 30, 2010

Analysis

Moscow Suffers Under a Toxic Haze

International Politik  Fred Weir Sept/Oct 2010

Analysis

Policy Towards Eastern Europe: Walk and Chew Gum

International Politik  Constanze Stelzenmüller Jul/Aug 2010

Analysis

Russia and the EU: Odd Man In

German Council of Foreign Affairs  Sergej Karaganow Sept/Oct 2010

Analysis

Moscow Office MarketView H1 2010

CB Richard Ellis  August 2010

Analysis

The World’s Worst Traffic

Foreign Policy  Aug 24, 2010

Analysis

Medvedev's Climate Moment

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace  Adnan Vatansever Aug 28, 2010

Analysis

Drought in Russia Ripples Beyond the Wheat Fields

New York Times  Andrew Kramer Aug 28, 2010

Analysis

EMEA Bi-Weekly: The World Beyond

Commerzbank  Aug 27, 2010

News

Analysis: Russian drought to put a brake on rouble's rise

Reuters  Andrey Ostroukh Aug 27, 2010

News

Medvedev Breaks with Putin over Highway after Ecology Protests

Bloomberg  Ilya Arkhipov Aug 27, 2010

News

Russia Publishes Terms for Selling Ruble-Denominated Eurobonds

Bloomberg  Paul Abelsky Aug 27, 2010

Analysis

Russia in Asia and the Pacific

East Asia Forum  Georgy Toloraya Aug 26, 2010

News

CEE markets wrap: Russia rebounds

Financial Times  Henry Mance Aug 26, 2010

News

Russia counts the cost of drought and wildfires

BBC  Konstantin Rozhnov Aug 26, 2010

News

FUND VIEW-Russia seeks stability in consumer sector-fund

Reuters  Josie Cox Aug 26, 2010

Blogs

Russia's Future Looks Bleak Both Long- and Short-Term

Seeking Alpha  Craig Pirrong Aug 26, 2010

News

Russian Economic Confidence Declines as More See ‘Hard Times’

Bloomberg  Ilya Arkhipov Aug 26, 2010

Opinions

Putin's Perestroika Experiment in Kaliningrad

The Moscow Times  Nikolay Petrov Aug 24, 2010

News

Russia to Return to Global Grain Market

RIA Novosti  Aug 26, 2010

Research

Stock market reaction to debt financing arrangements in Russia

Bank of Finland  Christophe J. Godlewski, Laurent Weill and Zuzana Fungáčová Aug 25, 2010

News

Iran Asks Russia to Jointly Produce Nuclear Fuel

Bloomberg  Ladane Nasseri Aug 26, 2010

News

CEE markets wrap: equities fall; Roubini warns Turkey

Financial Times  Henry Mance Aug 25, 2010

News

Ruble Hits Six-Week Low

Wall Street Journal  Ira Iosebashvili Aug 25, 2010

News

How much of the Russian economy is in ashes?

Business News Europe  Tom Gosling Aug 25, 2010

Analysis

Scapegoat Federation

Russia Profile  Tai Adelaja Aug 24, 2010

Analysis

Autumnal Discontent

Russia Profile  Roland Oliphant Aug 25, 2010

News

Real Estate Bubble in Russia

The Moscow Times  Oleg Nikishenkov Aug 25, 2010

News

Ukraine Asks to Review ‘Unfavorable’ Russia Gas Price

Bloomberg  Daryna Krasnolutska and Stephen Bierman Aug 25, 2010

News

Russia Drought to Slow Growth, Spur Inflation, Ministry Says

Bloomberg  Maria Levitov and Ekaterina Shatalova Aug 24, 2010

News

Putin to Offer Shortest-Term Debt in Seven Years: Russia Credit

Bloomberg  Emma O’Brien Aug 24, 2010

Blogs

CEE markets wrap: currencies slide, Hungary holds rates

Financial Times  Henry Mance Aug 24, 2010

Analysis

Fire Exposes Weakness of Russia’s Political System

Chatham House  Alex Nice Aug 10, 2010

Analysis

CEEMEA: Looking Back, Moving Forward

Morgan Stanley  Aug 24, 2010

Analysis

Russia: The Quintessential Boom-Bust Economy

Business News Europe  Roland Nash Aug 24, 2010

News

Ruble Weakens to One-Month Low on Oil Drop, Global Economy

Bloomberg  Emma O’Brien Aug 24, 2010

Opinions

Russia - The quintessential boom-bust economy

Business New Europe  Roland Nash Aug 24, 2010

News

Corporate Yields to Rise as State Sales Triple; Russia Credit

Bloomberg  Paul Abelsky Aug 24, 2010

Analysis

Russia: Inflation Trend Reverses on Weather

BNP Paribas  Julia Tsepliaeva Aug 24, 2010

News

Central Bank Opts for Sovereign Bonds

Reuters  Aug 23, 2010

News

Analyst Sees North Caucasus Independent Within Generation

Eurasia Review  Paul Goble Aug 23, 2010

News

Russia: FDI Falls 11%

The Moscow Times  Ed Bentley Aug 23, 2010