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Slovakia

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RGE's Q1 2010 Slovakia Outlook

Slovakia’s economy is headed for a gradual recovery this year, after an estimated 5.0% contraction in 2009. The heady days of average growth rates of over 7% from 2004 to 2008 are in the past. Weak external demand has taken a heavy toll on this highly export-oriented economy. Signs of economic stabilization in key trading partners, along with the lagged effect of monetary easing, will lend support to an economic revival. But headwinds remain. Continued labor market deterioration, the expiry of EU car subsidy programs, and expected fiscal tightening will all weigh on growth going forward.

The shape of Slovakia’s economy recovery is highly dependent on developments in Western Europe, home to its major trading partners. In a positive sign, France and Germany emerged from recession in Q2 2009, but the jury is still out on the strength of the upturn as evidenced by Germany’s stagnant growth performance in Q4 2009. In our baseline scenario, RGE foresees a protracted U-shaped recovery in Western Europe. A faster-than-expected recovery there poses an upside risk to Slovakian growth, while the possibility of a double-dip recession poses a downside risk.

Read the Q1 2010 Slovakia Outlook.

RGE Analysis

Slovakia: Q1 2010 Outlook

By Mary Stokes Jan 30, 2010

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Daily Digest

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Lex: Eastern Europe

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Research

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News

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Analysis

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Blogs

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Analysis

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News

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News

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Analysis

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News

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News

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Analysis

CEE Financial Market Report: Economic Expectations for Central and Eastern Europe Decline

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Analysis

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News

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Financial Times  Feb 23, 2010

Analysis

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ZEW (Centre for European Economic Research) and Erste Bank  Feb 22, 2010

Analysis

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Economist Intelligence Unit  Feb 22, 2010

News

Slovakia: Quarterly advance in GDP brings hope

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Analysis

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Economist Intelligence Unit  Feb 22, 2010

Analysis

Slovakia: GDP flash for 4Q09

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Analysis

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Analysis

Special Report: Fiscal situation in CEE

ERSTE Bank  Feb 18, 2010

Analysis

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Analysis

Global Markets February 16, 2010

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News

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News

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News

East Europe Faces ‘Vicious Cycle’ on Sparse Loans, Capital Says

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News

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Analysis

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News

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News

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News

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Analysis

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Analysis

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News

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News

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Analysis

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Analysis

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Analysis

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News

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News

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News

Slovak President Appoints Ex-Regulator for ECB Council Job

Bloomberg  Radoslav Tomek Jan 12, 2010

Analysis

CEE Equity Strategy 1Q 2010 and outlook 2010

ERSTE Bank  Jan 11, 2010

Analysis

Eastern Europe economy: The long-term impact of the crisis

Economist Intelligence Unit  Jan 8, 2010

Analysis

Sustainability Report 2009

European Commission  Mar 13, 2010

Analysis

Slovakia politics: Fico, the successful sceptic of transition

Economist Intelligence Unit  Jan 4, 2010

News

Slovak 2009 Central-Budget Gap Widens on Recession

Bloomberg  Radoslav Tomek Jan 4, 2010

News

Reverse flow takes heat out of crisis for Slovakia

Financial Times  Joshua Chaffin Dec 29, 2009

News

EU on alert over Russian oil supplies

EU Observer  Renata Goldirova Dec 29, 2009

News

Russia Warns EU of Oil Supply Cut on Ukraine Row

Bloomberg  Daryna Krasnolutska and Krystof Chamonikolas Dec 28, 2009

News

Slovak Rating Isn’t Threatened by Budget Deficit, Moody’s Says

Bloomberg  Radoslav Tomek Dec 22, 2009

Analysis

CEEMEA: Rebounding, Still Far from Tightening

Morgan Stanley  CEEMEA Economics team Dec 18, 2009

Analysis

CEE in the global crisis - Perspectives and lessons

Deutsche Bank Research  Presentation by Gunter Deuber Dec 10, 2009

News

Slovak Parliament Approves Ex-Regulator Nomination for ECB Job

Bloomberg  Radoslav Tomek Dec 10, 2009

Analysis

Elections dominate emerging Europe in 2010

Reuters  Peter Apps Dec 8, 2009

Analysis

Energy Security in Europe: A fire to light

Financial Times  Stefan Wagstyl Dec 3, 2009

Analysis

Slovakia Long-Term Outlook: December 2009

ERSTE Bank  Dec 3, 2009

Analysis

Emerging Europe: In transition, but to what?

Nomura Economic Research  Peter Attard Montalto Dec 1, 2009

Analysis

The impact of the crisis on new EU member states: Role and Contribution of the Fund in the Crisis

IMF  Marek Belka and Director of IMF’s European Department Dec 2, 2009

Opinions

Eastern Europe to test the market system

Financial Times  Stefan Wagstyl Nov 26, 2009

Analysis

Europe’s Return: The Impact of the EU’s Newest Members

Center for European Policy Analysis  David T. Armitage Nov 1, 2009

News

Eastern Europe Proving Too Good to Last as Runaway Debt Erodes 50% Returns

Bloomberg  Tasneem Brogger and Agnes Lovasz Nov 23, 2009

News

EU recession over, but sharp contrasts in east

EU Business  Nov 23, 2009

Analysis

East Europe Proving Too Good as Debt Erodes 50% Gain

Bloomberg  Tasneem Brogger and Agnes Lovasz Nov 23, 2009

Analysis

CEE: Wary of Greek Spreads

BNP Paribas  Nov 23, 2009

Analysis

Slovakia's murky politics: Heading south

Economist  Nov 19, 2009

News

Poland, Slovakia Need Sustainable Budgets, OECD Says

Bloomberg  Agnes Lovasz Nov 19, 2009

News

Poland, Slovakia Need to Make Budgets Sustainable, OECD Says

Bloomberg  Agnes Lovasz Nov 19, 2009