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RGE's Q3 2010 Southeast Europe Outlook

RGE’s growth forecast for the Southeast Europe (SEE) economies, specifically, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia and Serbia, has worsened since our Q2 Outlook. Faltering domestic demand has been dragged down by weak consumer confidence, sluggish credit growth and fiscal consolidation. RGE sees regional growth averaging -1.2%, in 2010, compared with the 0.5% forecast in our April Outlook. Heightened uncertainty stemming from the debt crisis in the eurozone periphery represents the main downside risk to our projection. We expect a return to positive, albeit below-potential, growth of 1.6% next year, driven by a modest revival in private consumption.

Read the Q3 2010 Southeast Europe Outlook

 

RGE Analysis

CROSS ASSET MONTHLY

Credit: Who Gets Their Pound of Flesh?

David Nowakowski Aug 31, 2010

CROSS ASSET MONTHLY

Currencies: The End of Exuberance

Natalia Gurushina Aug 31, 2010

CROSS ASSET MONTHLY

Fixed Income: Unconventional Policies Create Uncertainty

Arun Motianey Aug 31, 2010

CROSS ASSET MONTHLY

Equities: Über Competitive Germany

Gina Sanchez Aug 31, 2010

CROSS ASSET MONTHLY

Executive Summary: States of Flux: Stay Risk Averse

Arnab Das Aug 31, 2010

CROSS ASSET MONTHLY

Financial Institutions: Cracks in the EZ Façade

Jennifer Kapila Aug 31, 2010

RGE STRATEGY VIEW

Struggling to Break Free: Rising Correlations Part II

By David Nowakowski and Natalia Gurushina Aug 25, 2010

RGE STRATEGY VIEW

The History of Risk—Correlations, Volatilities and Z-Scores

By David Nowakowski and Natalia Gurushina Aug 25, 2010

Europe Weekly Spotlight: Eurozone Q2 Growth; Is Germany Rebalancing?; Polls Near in Latvia and Sweden

By Elisa Parisi-Capone, Katharina Jungen, Mary Stokes, Parul Walia, David Rogovic and Eric Persson Aug 13, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Serbia: Q3 2010 Outlook

By Jelena Vukotic Jul 12, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Turkey: Q3 2010 Outlook

By Mary Stokes Jul 12, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Southeast Europe: Q3 2010 Outlook

By Jelena Vukotic Jul 10, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Croatia: Q3 2010 Outlook

By Jelena Vukotic Jul 10, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Bulgaria: Q3 2010 Outlook

By Jelena Vukotic Jul 10, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Romania: Q3 2010 Outlook

By Jelena Vukotic Jul 10, 2010

Europe Weekly Spotlight

By Mary Stokes, Elisa Parisi-Capone, Katharina Jungen, Mikko Forss, Parul Walia and Jelena Vukotic Jun 18, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Southeast Europe: Q2 2010 Outlook

By Jelena Vukotic Apr 12, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

South East Europe: Q1 2010 Outlook

By Jelena Vukotic Jan 30, 2010

Eastern Europe: Out of the Danger Zone?

Mary Stokes and Jelena Vukotic Oct 21, 2009

Eastern Europe: Will Democracy Stay the Only Game in Town?

Jelena Vukotic and Michael Bogdan Apr 30, 2009

Eastern European Tinderbox: How Explosive Could it Get?

Mary Stokes, Jelena Vukotic and Elisa Parisi-Capone Feb 28, 2009

Rocky Road Ahead for Romania

Mary Stokes Feb 22, 2008

Crash Course for Bulgaria?

Mary Stokes Jan 2, 2008

Vulnerabilities in Central and Southern Europe

Nouriel Roubini and Christian Menegatti Jun 6, 2006

EconoMonitors

Emerging Markets Monitor

The Black Sea's West Coast Weighs In on Caspian Sea Basin Pipelines

Robert M. Cutler Aug 31, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

The Shape of Bulgarian Things to Come

Edward Hugh Aug 23, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Croatia: On The Brink of What?

Edward Hugh Jul 8, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Bulgaria’s Statistics Under EU Scrutiny: Another Greek-Style Budget Blunder?

Jelena Vukotic Jun 11, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Quiet Before the Storm in the Balkans

Emre Deliveli Feb 23, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

What Greece’s Fiscal Crisis Could Mean for Eastern Europe

Mary Stokes and Jelena Vukotic Feb 22, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Summer Vigour

Marcus Svedberg Sep 4, 2009

Daily Digest

Analysis

Fixed Income Monthly Croatia - August 2010

Erste Bank (registration may be required)  Sep 02, 2010

News

Bulgaria's New Wheat Sales Doubled in 2010 on Russian, Ukrainian Drought

Bloomberg  Elizabeth Konstantinova Sep 02, 2010

Research

Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What did the Great Recession Change?

IMF  Aleš Bulíř, Kateřina Šmídková and Jan Babecký Sep 02, 2010

News

Romanian Economy Expands In Q2

RTT News  Sep 01, 2010

Analysis

Romania: Slightly improved performance of households consumption in 2Q10

Erste Bank (registration may be required)  Sep 01, 2010

Analysis

Serbia: Industrial production on the upswing

Raiffeisen Research  Sep 01, 2010

News

Serbia: Summer season adds to fragile foreign trade volumes

Raiffeisen Research  Sep 01, 2010

News

IMF’s Jaeger Agrees With Serbia on Next Loan Payment

Bloomberg  Gordana Filipovic and Misha Savic Sep 01, 2010

News

Romania Must Pay Debts, Pass Pension Changes to Get IMF Payment

Bloomberg  Irina Savu and Andra Timu Sep 01, 2010

News

Romania signals to stick to debt yield cap

Reuters  Aug 31, 2010

Analysis

Monthly Bulletin - June 2010

National Bank of Romania  Aug 26, 2010

News

Serbia's 24-Month Debt Undersold, Debt Management Agency Says; Yield Rises

Bloomberg  Gordana Filipovic Aug 31, 2010

News

Leu May Weaken Toward Record Low on `Political Instability,' Recovery Risk

Bloomberg  Krystof Chamonikolas Aug 31, 2010

News

Bulgaria's Indebted State Railway Operator Seeks World Bank, EBRD Loan

Bloomberg  Elizabeth Konstantinova Aug 31, 2010

News

Croatian lawmakers approve bigger 2010 budget

Reuters  Aug 30, 2010

News

Romania May Drop Yield Cap ‘Illusion’ as Funding Lags

Bloomberg  Irina Savu and Krystof Chamonikolas Aug 30, 2010

Analysis

EMEA Bi-Weekly: The World Beyond

Commerzbank  Aug 27, 2010

Analysis

Croatian GDP continues to fall

Raiffeisen Research  Aug 27, 2010

Analysis

Croatia: 2Q GDP contracted by 2.5% y/y

ERSTE Bank  Alen Kovac Aug 27, 2010

Analysis

Standard Eurobarometer 73

EU Commission  Aug 27, 2010

Analysis

Europeans losing faith in EU

EurActiv  Aug 27, 2010

News

Romania and Bulgaria keep low profile on Roma expulsions

WAZ.euobserver.com  Nikolai Petrov and Dan Alexe Aug 26, 2010

News

Kosovan telecom sell-off plan sparks dispute

Financial Times  Aug 26, 2010

Analysis

RSD: Dinar’s fall comes to a halt

ING  Aug 20, 2010

Analysis

Serbia: Dinar depreciation continues unabated

Eurobank EFG  Jul 29, 2010

Analysis

Romania’s External Debt Sustainability Under Crisis Circumstances

Romanian Journal of Economics  Gheorghe Zaman and George Georgescu Aug 25, 2010

News

Foreign Exchange Reserves and Movements in the IFEM in July 2010

National Bank of Serbia (NBS)  Aug 16, 2010

Analysis

Presentation: Inflation Report –August 2010

National Bank of Serbia (NBS)  Bojan Markovic and Vice Governor Aug 11, 2010

Blogs

CEE markets wrap: currencies slide, Hungary holds rates

Financial Times  Henry Mance Aug 24, 2010

Blogs

Chinese companies look west to eastern Europe

Beyond Brics, Financial Times  Chris Bryant Aug 23, 2010

News

Romania sticks to 7 pct yield on 6-mo T-bills

Reuters  Luiza Ilie Aug 24, 2010

News

Romanian Ministry to Pick Eurobond Lead Managers in September, People Say

Bloomberg  Irina Savu and Andra Timu Aug 17, 2010

News

Croatian 2010 Tourism May Grow 5% as Visitors Shun Greece, Analysts Say

Bloomberg  Jasmina Kuzmanovic Aug 11, 2010

Analysis

Croatia: Tourism in H1 2010

Croatia's Bureau of Statistics  Aug 23, 2010

Analysis

Croatia: Economic Bulletin - July 2010

Croatian National Bank  Aug 03, 2010

Analysis

Croatia: Annual Report 2009

Croatian National Bank  Aug 23, 2010

News

Fewer Bulgarians Grant Borissov Good Marks

Angus Reid Global Monitor  July 14, 2010

News

Early warnings to Serbia about Kosovo may come true

WAZ.euobserver.com  Zeljko Pantelic Aug 17, 2010

Analysis

Serbia Monthly Economic Report - August 2010

Raiffeisen Research  Aug 23, 2010

Analysis

Fitch Affirms Bulgaria at 'BBB-'; Outlook Negative

Fitch Ratings (subscription may be required)  Aug 19, 2010

News

Can Tourism once again save the Croatian budget?

WAZ.euobserver.com  Augustin Palokaj Aug 19, 2010

Analysis

The Sun Is Rising in the East

Peterson Institute EconoMonitor  Anders Aslund Aug 20, 2010

Analysis

EMEA Weekly: Will Stanley Fischer regret his hikes?

Danske Bank  Aug 20, 2010

News

Serbia Maintains Key Policy Rate At 8.5%

RTT News  Aug 19, 2010

Blogs

Eastern EU Asks Bloc to Look Other Way on Debt

New Europe, Wall Street Journal  Marcin Sobczyk Aug 19, 2010

News

Serbia to Call for Telekom Tender by Next Month, Djokovic Says

Bloomberg  Gordana Filipovic Aug 18, 2010

News

EU states seek new budget rule due to pension reform

Reuters  Jan Strupczewski and Sandor Peto Aug 17, 2010

News

Serb Central Bank Sees Stronger Dinar, Faster Growth This Year

Bloomberg  Gordana Filipovic Aug 12, 2010

News

Leu May Weaken to 4.35 Per Euro on Romania's Austerity Measures, ING Says

Bloomberg  Krystof Chamonikolas Aug 17, 2010

Analysis

EMEA Strategy: Back to Basics…

Commerzbank  Aug 13, 2010

Analysis

EM Country Briefing: Eastern Europe: Are banks ready to support growth?

Commerzbank  Barbara Nestor Aug 13, 2010

News

Serb Central Banker Sees Credit Rating Gains on Fiscal Control, Blic Says

Bloomberg  Gordana Filipovic Aug 15, 2010

Analysis

GDP for the Second Quarter of 2010 – Flash Estimates

National Statistical Institute, Republic of Bulgaria  Aug 13, 2010

Analysis

EMEA Weekly: Easing bias in EMEA monetary policy is back

Danske Bank  Aug 13, 2010

Analysis

Eastern Europe finance: Resilient, but further tests await

Economist Intelligence Unit  Aug 11, 2010

News

World Bank to help Bulgaria develop infrastructure

EU Business  Aug 11, 2010

News

Serbian Agriculture to Contract as Much as 4% on Lengthy Winter, Rainfall

Bloomberg  Gordana Filipovic Aug 10, 2010

News

Serbia growing but inflation could prompt rate hike

Reuters  Ivana Sekularac Aug 11, 2010

News

Romania July inflation jumps, rates seen on hold

Reuters  Marius Zaharia Aug 11, 2010

Analysis

Romania: Delicate balancing act

Oxford Business Group  Aug 10, 2010

Blogs

CEE markets wrap: Micex leads resilient equities

Beyond Brics, Financial Times  Henry Mance Aug 09, 2010

Analysis

Promoting Energy Security and Investment in the Black Sea Area: The role of multilateral cooperation

International Energy Association (IEA)  Ann Eggington Jul 27, 2010

Analysis

Key Policy Rate Raised to 8.5 Percent

National Bank of Serbia (NBS)  Aug 05, 2010

Analysis

Fitch Affirms Romania at 'BB+'; Outlook Stable

Fitch Ratings (subscription may be required)  Aug 09, 2010

News

Serb c.bank makes surprise rate hike, boosts dinar

Reuters  Ivana Sekularac Aug 05, 2010

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