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South Korea

Macro View

Markets

Finance & Banking

Geostrategic & Long Term Issues

Key Indicators

Consumer Price Index
Total item
(Index 2005=100, NSA)
115,115.6,115.7,115.5,115.9 115.9
Foreign Trade
Exports
(Ths. US$ NSA)
37680000,39876000,39486000,42653000,41358000 41,358,000
National Accounts
GDP - Expenditure On GDP 
(Bil. won at 2005 chained price, SA)
241349.41,248348.53,250397,254904.14,259783.91 259,783.91
Balance of Payment
Current Account
(Mil. US$, NSA)
-447.5,157.6,1690.3,1491,3829 3,829
External Debt
Total
(Millions of US dollars, NSA)
369330,380116,397502,401922,409758 409,758
Exchange Rate
Korean to USD - Closing Rate
(Won, NSA)
1191.1,1181.5,1184.1,1186.4,1182.7 1,182.7
data by Moody's

RGE's Q3 2010 South Korea Outlook

Despite waning fiscal spending, South Korea’s growth accelerated in H1 2010 as private consumption strengthened and investment and exports rose significantly. However, growth will slow to 5% in H2 2010 and weaken further in H1 2011 as slowdowns in exports and inventory restocking at home and abroad weaken investment and the fragile labor market and consumption recoveries. RGE expects South Korea to grow 6.1% in 2010 before skidding to a rate of 3.9% in 2011. An expected slowdown in China looms over the export outlook, and global risk aversion could shake asset markets and external accounts. Amid an aging population, high debt burden and weakened exports, South Korea’s trend growth will slow to around 3-3.5% in the coming years compared to 4-5% in 2004-07.

Read the Q3 2010 South Korea Outlook

RGE Analysis

ASIA FOCUS

Policy Hits and Misses

Arpitha Bykere, Adam Wolfe, Michael Manetta and Mikka Pineda Sep 2, 2010

CROSS ASSET MONTHLY

Equities: Über Competitive Germany

Gina Sanchez Aug 31, 2010

Asia Week Ahead: Growth Concerns Outweigh Inflation Risks

By Arpitha Bykere, Michael Manetta, Mikka Pineda and Adam Wolfe Aug 26, 2010

Asia Week Ahead: Private Demand an Unlikely Antidote for Export Ailments

By Arpitha Bykere, Adam Wolfe, Michael Manetta and Mikka Pineda Aug 5, 2010

RGE STRATEGY VIEW

Q3 2010 Scenario Analysis: Macroeconomic Factors & Asset Class Investment Implications

By Christian Menegatti, Rachel Ziemba, Arnab Das, Arun Motianey, Gina Sanchez, Natalia Gurushina and David Nowakowski Aug 2, 2010

Asia Week Ahead: Skidding Exports to Keep Rate Hikes Gradual Despite Inflation

By Arpitha Bykere, Michael Manetta, Mikka Pineda and Rachel Ziemba Jul 29, 2010

Asia Week Ahead: Gradual Monetary Tightening to Continue Despite Signs of Slowdown

By Arpitha Bykere, Mikka Pineda, Michael Manetta and Adam Wolfe Jul 22, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Asia/Pacific: Q3 2010 Outlook

By Arpitha Bykere Jul 12, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

South Korea: Q3 2010 Outlook

By Arpitha Bykere Jul 12, 2010

Asia Week Ahead: Export Outlook Looks Bright for Commodities, Dim for Manufacturers

By Arpitha Bykere, Mikka Pineda and Rachel Ziemba Jul 8, 2010

Asia Week Ahead: Central Banks Weigh Tightening With G3 on Hold and Global Growth Slowing

By Arpitha Bykere, Mikka Pineda, Adam Wolfe and Rachel Ziemba Jul 1, 2010

Asia Week Ahead: Vulnerabilities to the EU Are Here to Stay

By Arpitha Bykere and Mikka Pineda Jun 17, 2010

Asia Week Ahead: Signs of Easing Growth Challenge Monetary Policy

By Arpitha Bykere, Mikka Pineda, Adam Wolfe and Rachel Ziemba Jun 3, 2010

Asia Week Ahead: Political Tensions, Easing Growth and Delayed Monetary Tightening

By Arpitha Bykere, Mikka Pineda, Adam Wolfe and Rachel Ziemba May 27, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

South Korea: Q2 2010 Outlook

By Arpitha Bykere Apr 12, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

South Korea: Q1 2010 Outlook

By Hyungyu Kim and Arpitha Bykere Jan 30, 2010

South Korea Economic Outlook, Q3 2009

Mikka Pineda Jul 24, 2009

Obama Tours Asia with a Full Agenda

RGE Analysts Nov 18, 2007

EconoMonitors

Daily Digest

News

South Korea to Ban New Oil, Gas Investments in Iran on Nuclear Program

Bloomberg  Bomi Lim and Eunkyung Seo Sep 08, 2010

Analysis

KDI Monthly Economic Trends 2010.9

Ministry of Strategy and Finance, South Korea  Sep 08, 2010

Analysis

Monetary and Liquidity Aggregates Trend during July 2010

Bank of Korea  Sep 08, 2010

News

S.Korea’s grain self-sufficiency continues downward trend

The Hankyoreh  Hyun-dae Kim Sep 08, 2010

News

Korea’s state fiscal position is strong

JoonAng Daily  Ho-jeong Lee Sep 08, 2010

News

N.Korea Asks for Rice, Cement, Heavy Equipment

The Chosun Ilbo  Sep 08, 2010

Opinions

Scary prices?

Korea Herald  Sep 08, 2010

News

Moody's: Korean property prices may fall further

The Korea Herald  Sep 07, 2010

News

S. Korea: 'Property market slump to linger'

Korea Times  Seung-woo Kang Sep 07, 2010

News

North Korea blows off the cobwebs

Korea Times  Andrei Lankov Sep 07, 2010

News

South Korea 'one of the best in fiscal soundness' among OECD

Korea Times  Jin-seo Cho Sep 07, 2010

News

Exodus leaves South Korea in limbo

Business Day  Jack Kim Sep 07, 2010

News

Korean Won to Gain 6.6%, Okasan Predicts: Technical Analysis

Bloomberg BusinessWeek  Yumi Teso Sep 07, 2010

News

Asian Currencies Retreat, Led by Korean Won, Ringgit, on Intervention Risk

Bloomberg  Lilian Karunungan Sep 07, 2010

News

South Korea's Foreign Minister Offers to Quit

Wall Street Journal  Evan Ramstad Sep 05, 2010

Analysis

Afloat on a Chinese tide

The Economist  Sep 03, 2010

Analysis

Daily Breakfast Spread - Sept 2, 2010

DBS Research Group  Sep 02, 2010

Analysis

Robust August exports but momentum to lose steam

Korea Investment and Securities  Minkyoo Jun and Eunjung Jin Sep 03, 2010

Analysis

July industrial activities: Inventory cycle at the door of economic slowdown

Korea Investment and Securities  Minkyoo Jun and Eunjung Jin Aug 31, 2010

News

S. Korean economy grows a revised 1.4 pct in Q2

Korea Development Bank  Sep 03, 2010

Analysis

S. Korea: Current Economic Trends: The Green Book (August 2010)

Korean Development Institute  Sep 03, 2010

News

S. Korea: The Service Industry Activity Index in July 2010

Korea National Statistics Office  Sep 03, 2010

News

S. Korea Gross National Income: Second Quarter of 2010

Bank of Korea  Sep 03, 2010

News

IMF says that BOK can raise interest rates more

JoongAng Daily  Sep 03, 2010

News

S. Korea: Exports to Iran are falling

JoongAng Daily  Sep 03, 2010

News

S. Korea: Government to fight price rises

JoongAng Daily  Sep 03, 2010

News

Korea urges focus on emerging economies

The Korea Herald  Yon-Se Kim Sep 03, 2010

News

North Korea Takes Steps to Extend Dynastic Rule

New York Times  Sep 02, 2010

News

KDB issues $900 million of SEC-registered notes

Finance Asia  Mei Tuicolo Sep 03, 2010

Analysis

S. Korea: The Industrial Activities in July 2010

Korea National Statistics Office  Aug 31, 2010

News

S. Korea: Trade Figures for August 2010

South Korea Ministry of Knowledge Economy  Sep 02, 2010

Analysis

S. Korea: Official Foreign Reserves, Aug 2010

Bank of Korea  Sep 02, 2010

News

South Korea Says it Will Take `Pre-emptive Action' to Limit Price Growth

Bloomberg  William Sim and Eunkyung Seo Sep 02, 2010

News

S. Korea: 2010 trade surplus to be $32 billion

JoongAng Daily  Ho-jeong Lee Sep 01, 2010

News

New plans to bolster struggling FEZs

Korea Herald  Young-aah Koh Sep 01, 2010

Analysis

S. Korea: Consumer Price Index in August 2010

Korea National Statistics Office  Sep 01, 2010

News

South Korea's Trade, Inflation Figures Signal Resilience to Global Risks

Bloomberg  William Sim and Eunkyung Seo Sep 01, 2010

News

S. Korea, Peru strike free trade deal

The Korea Herald  Aug 31, 2010

Opinions

S. Korea: Expanding FTA Network

The Korea Times  Aug 31, 2010

News

FTA with Peru good for Korean carmakers, resource developers

The Korea Herald  Choi He-suk Aug 31, 2010

News

Business Survey Index(BSI) for Aug 2010

The Bank of Korea  Aug 31, 2010

News

Trends of Weighted Average Interest Rates for July 2010

The Bank of Korea  Aug 30, 2010

News

Inter-Korean relations remain tense during Kim’s China visit

The Hankyoreh  Je-hoon Lee Aug 30, 2010

Analysis

S Korea Banking: Details and implications of the new real-estate measures

Daishin Securities  Jeffrey Choi Aug 30, 2010

Opinions

S Korea: Search for a premier

The Korea Herald  Aug 30, 2010

Opinions

S Korea: It’s now up to the banks

JoongAng Daily  Aug 31, 2010

News

Bad SME loans weighing down on banks

The Korea Times  Seung-woo Kang Aug 30, 2010

News

S Korea: Mortgage defaults rise in July

JoongAng Daily  Hyung-eun Kim Aug 30, 2010

News

S Korea: Tax breaks to boost pension plans

JoongAng Daily  Aug 31, 2010

News

S Korea: Property regulations eased to boost housing market

The Korea Times  Tae-gyu Kim Aug 30, 2010

News

S Korea: Will property market get boost?

The Korea Times  Tae-gyu Kim Aug 30, 2010

Opinions

S Korea: Eased mortgage rules

The Korea Times  Aug 30, 2010

Opinions

S Korea: Lee’s reshuffle debacle

JoongAng Daily  Aug 30, 2010

News

S Korea: PM-nominee to be picked in a few weeks

The Korea Times  Jeong-ju Na Aug 30, 2010

News

S Korea: PM-nominee, 2 others quit

The Korea Times  Tae-hoon Lee Aug 30, 2010

News

S Korea: Monthly Vital Statistics in August 2010

Korea National Statistics Office  Aug 30, 2010

News

South Korea to Ease Lending Rules, Extend Home Buyer Tax Breaks

Bloomberg  Seonjin Cha and Bomi Lim Aug 30, 2010

News

July current account surplus nears record

JoongAng Daily  Ho-jeong Lee Aug 28, 2010

News

South Korea Current Account Surplus Reaches 16-Month High on Won Weakness

Bloomberg  William Sim and Eunkyung Seo Aug 27, 2010

News

S Korea: Balance of Payments during July 2010 (preliminary)

The Bank of Korea  Aug 27, 2010

News

S Korea: Budget spending as of the end of July, 2010

Ministry of Strategy and Finance  Aug 27, 2010

News

S&P says outlook stable on Korean banks

JoongAng Daily  Aug 26, 2010

News

Bafflement by Kim’s surprise China trip

JoongAng Daily  Gwang-lip Moon and Young-jong Lee Aug 27, 2010

News

Top 10 S Korean firms’ land value falls for first time

The Korea Herald  Ji-hyun Kim Aug 26, 2010

News

S Korea: Lee has much to do in second half

The Korea Herald  So-hyun Kim Aug 24, 2010

News

S Korea: Wages Rise by 6.2% in Q2 for 3 Straight Quarters

Maeil Business Newspaper  Su-hyun Song and Jae-man Koh Aug 26, 2010

News

S Korea: Housing Market Policy Will Come ASAP - Minister

Maeil Business Newspaper  Nam-shik Seok Aug 26, 2010

News

S Korea: Mortgage easing dilemma

JoongAng Daily  Ho-jeong Lee Aug 27, 2010

News

S Korea: 20-Y Bond Rate Hits All-Time Low

Maeil Business Newspaper  Byung-ho Kim Aug 26, 2010

News

Bank of Korea Governor Says 'Vigilance' Needed on Inflation

Bloomberg  Susan Li and Eunkyung Seo Aug 26, 2010

News

Analysis of Direct Corporate Financing for July 2010

Financial Supervisory Service  Aug 25, 2010

News

S Korea: Birth Statistics in 2009

Korea National Statistics Office  Aug 25, 2010

News

S Korea: Consumer Survey Index, August 2010

The Bank of Korea  Aug 25, 2010

News

North Korea: amid succession fears, Kim Jong-un rising to power

The Korea Times  Young-jin Kim Aug 25, 2010

News

Carter’s trip to North could ease tensions: sources

JoongAng Daily  Gwang-lip Moon and Chan-ho Kang Aug 25, 2010

News

Sout Korea: The rich getting more loans

JoongAng Daily  Aug 25, 2010

News

Korea denies new concessions on U.S. FTA

JoongAng Daily  Seung-hyun Jung Aug 25, 2010

Opinions

S Korea: Tax cuts for whom?

The Korea Times  Aug 25, 2010

News

Electronics: a mainstay of Korean economy

The Korea Times  Alan Biggs Aug 25, 2010

Analysis

FIRST HALF OF 2010 SEES RECORD INTER-KOREAN TRADE

Institute for Far Eastern Studies  Aug 19, 2010