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South Korea

Macro View

Markets

Finance & Banking

Geostrategic & Long Term Issues

Key Indicators

Consumer Price Index
Total item
(Index 2005=100, NSA)
113.5,113.2,113.4,113.8,114.2 114.2
Foreign Trade
Exports
(Ths. US$ NSA)
34970000,34026000,34300000,36244000,31080000 31,080,000
National Accounts
GDP - Expenditure On GDP 
(Bil. won at 2005 chained price, SA)
235580.3,235853.59,241349.41,248348.53,250397 250,397
Balance of Payment
Current Account
(Mil. US$, NSA)
2043.8,4201.6,4944.6,4277.7,1521.5 1,521.5
External Debt
Total
(Millions of US dollars, NSA)
425516,381057,369330,380116,397502 397,502
Exchange Rate
Korean to USD - Closing Rate
(Won, NSA)
1150.9,1169.9,-9999.99,-9999.99,1171.9 1,171.9
data by Moody's

Current Economic Outlook

The vulnerability of the South Korean economy rose in late 2008 due to sharp export contraction and massive capital outflows. Aggressive stimulus measures and increased manufacturing activity have helped the economy avoid a technical recession. However, RGE forecasts South Korea will contract 1.5% in 2009 and grow 3.3% in 2010. A sluggish export recovery and waning stimulus impact will lead to a U‐shaped recovery. In case of a “double‐dip” U.S. recession or a revival of global risk aversion, South Korea will take another hit via trade and external debt channels. As consumers in the advanced economies deleverage over the next few years and domestic demand remains sluggish, South Korea will not go back to the 4%‐5% plus growth rates of recent years at least until 2011. Conditions in the external sector have improved since Q2 2009 backed by a stable currency (the Korean won), rising current account surplus and surging capital inflows. Net external liability has gone down and the share of short‐term debt in total external debt has declined.

Read the latest RGE Global Economic Update.

RGE Analysis

Daily Digest

News

South Korea: Producer Price Index during January 2010

The Bank of Korea  Feb 9, 2010

Analysis

South Korea Credit Strategy: 2010 Outlook for Korean Paper

Woori Investment  Louis Shin et al Feb 9, 2010

Analysis

Korea’s Fundamentals Still Support a Strong KRW

Alliance Bernstein  Anthony Chan Feb 5, 2010

Opinions

South Korea: Looming Trade War

Korea Times  Feb 8, 2010

News

South Korea: 'Yield Curve' Becomes Steepest in 9 Years

Korea Times  Hyo-sik Lee Feb 8, 2010

News

South Korea: Bond investors optimistic

Joong Ang  Feb 9, 2010

Opinions

N.Korea should not hesitate to rejoin six-party talks

The Hankyoreh  Feb 8, 2010

News

India Poses Toughest Trade Hurdles on S. Korean Exports

MK English News  Feb 9, 2010

Analysis

South Korea: Net Profit at Banks Falls 8.6% in 2009

Samsung Economic Research Institute (Free Registration Required)  Feb 8, 2010

Analysis

South Korea: January Exports Expand at Their Fastest Pace Since the 1990s

Samsung Economic Research Institute (Free Registration Required)  Feb 8, 2010

News

South Korea’s Yoon Says It’s Premature to Raise Rates

Bloomberg  Seyoon Kim Feb 8, 2010

Analysis

Korea Auto Insight: Windfall profit from Toyota’s crisis

Korea Investment & Securities  Sung Moon Suh Feb 8, 2010

Analysis

Canada-Korea Cooperation and the G20

Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada  Barry Carin Jan 1, 2010

Analysis

South Korea Automotive: Demand to rise in China on growing installment financing market

Woori Investment  Titus Gao et al Feb 5, 2010

News

Global Shipbuilding Market in Gloomy Conditions

MK English News  Eun-jung Kim Feb 5, 2010

Opinions

Ten Major Tasks Facing Korea in 2010

Samsung Economic Research Institute (Free Registration Required)  Changmock Shin Feb 5, 2010

Opinions

South Korea: 'China, India offer growth opportunity'

The Korea Herald  Chung-un Cho Feb 6, 2010

News

South Korea: Domestic Banks’ Preliminary SBL Ratios

Financial Service Commission, South Korea  Feb 1, 2010

Analysis

South Korea: Domestic Banks’ 2009 Earnings

Financial Supervisory Service  Feb 4, 2010

Analysis

South Korea Banking : Implication of a 10bp NIM change

Korea Investment & Securities  Jun J. Lee and Heejung Song Feb 4, 2010

News

South Korea: Positive job signs may be misleading: study

The Korea Herald  Yoo Soh-jung Feb 5, 2010

Opinions

Is Seoul Ready for the Fall of the N.Korean Regime?

Chosun llbo  Feb 4, 2010

News

South Korea: Bank profits dip on economic woes

Joong Ang  Jae-Yoon Jung Feb 5, 2010

News

Korea Faces Risk of Higher Inflation

Korea Times  Hyo-sik Lee Feb 4, 2010

News

North Korea economy: North Korea's economic moves bring new misery

Economist Intelligence Unit  Feb 4, 2010

News

Obama Keeps North Korea Off U.S. List of Terrorism Sponsors

Bloomberg  Hans Nichols Feb 4, 2010

Analysis

HSBC South Korea Manufacturing PMI - January 2010

HSBC  Frederic Neumann Feb 1, 2010

Opinions

Korea Strategy: Second year after blow-up— may see pain, but no crisis

Woori Investment  Clemens Kang et al Feb 3, 2010

News

S. Korea to Inject $4.76 Billion in Renewable Energy Area This Year

MK English News  Eun-jung Kim Feb 3, 2010

News

Issuance of Corporate Bonds in S. Korea Down in January 2010

MK English News  Yen-mi Hong Feb 3, 2010

News

South Korea: IT exports rocket 60% in January

Joong Ang  Feb 4, 2010

News

South Korea: Ex-Finance Minister Advocates Weak Won Policy

Korea Times  Hyo-sik Lee Feb 3, 2010

Opinions

South Korea: Time to strike on U.S. FTA

Joong Ang  Feb 4, 2010

Opinions

South Korea: Utility prices

The Korea Herald  Feb 4, 2010

News

South Korea: 'Small Firms Need to Go Through Restructuring'

Korea Times  Hyo-sik Lee Feb 3, 2010

News

South Korea: Accounting Standards to Be Eased in Transition

Korea Times  Jin-seo Cho Feb 3, 2010

News

South Korea: Financial act has produced few benefits: experts

Joong Ang  Jae-Yoon Jung and Min-Geun Cho Feb 4, 2010

News

South Korea: Seoul to continue financial deregulation

The Korea Herald  Yoon-mi Kim Feb 4, 2010

Opinions

Committing to an inter-Korean summit with pragmatic intent

The Hankyoreh  Ji-seok Kim Feb 3, 2010

News

North Korea designates new "firing zones" near sea border

Channel News Asia  Feb 3, 2010

Opinions

Korea Indicators 'Hit Peak Growth': An Economic Bellwether

Seeking Alpha  John Furlan Feb 3, 2010

News

South Korea Forecasts 52% Gain in Alternative Energy Spending

Bloomberg  Shinhye Kang Feb 3, 2010

Analysis

Banks in Asia (Excluding Japan): Outlook for 2010

Fitch Ratings (free registration required)  David Marshall et al Feb 2, 2010

Analysis

South Korea: January sales review—new and mid/large-sized car sales continue to rise

Woori Investment  Michael Sohn and Judy Kim Feb 2, 2010

Analysis

Korea: January trade deficit—cause and outlook

Woori Investment  June Park et al Feb 2, 2010

News

HSBC Forecasts S. Korean Economy to Show Solid Growth

MK English News  Eun-jung Kim Feb 2, 2010

Opinions

Korea Must Use Its Naval Fast-Response Unit Wisely

Chosun llbo  Feb 2, 2010

News

South Korea: Number of the Self-Employed Triples in 10 Years

Korea Times  Jae-won Kim Feb 2, 2010

Analysis

South Korea KIS Model Portfolio: Overweight: Oversold and long-sidelined sectors

Korea Investment & Securities  Keun-Hwan Noh et al Feb 2, 2010

News

Debt risk higher in Korea than U.S.

Joong Ang  Feb 3, 2010

Opinions

Korea neglects its duty in Haiti

Joong Ang  Feb 3, 2010

News

South Korea: Foreign reserves hit record level

Joong Ang  Feb 3, 2010

Opinions

South Korea: Prospects of FTA's Passage

Korea Times  Troy Stangarone Feb 2, 2010

Analysis

South Korea: Memory Semiconductor: Low DRAM shipment in Dec, a sign of low inventory

Korea Investment & Securities  Seung Hoon Han and Youngwoo Chung Feb 2, 2010

Analysis

Autos: Korean automakers rev up in 2010

Korea Investment & Securities  Sung Moon Suh Feb 2, 2010

News

South Korea: Official Foreign Reserves(Jan 2010)

Bank of Korea  Feb 2, 2010

News

Korea Pension Fund to Buy 12% Gatwick Stake From GIP

Bloomberg  Steve Rothwell and Saeromi Shin Feb 2, 2010

News

Kim Doubles His Visits to North Korea’s Factories

Bloomberg  Bomi Lim Feb 2, 2010

News

Seoul’s path to nuclear power

The National  Chris Stanton Feb 1, 2010

Analysis

South Korea: Pace of recovery slows

Woori Investment  Helen Hwang Feb 1, 2010

News

Asia Monthly Chart Book, January 2010

BBVA  Serena Wang and Ramon de la Rocha Feb 1, 2010

Analysis

South Korea: Background to Recent Exchange Rate Volatility and Prospects

Samsung Economic Research Institute (Free Registration Required)  Feb 2, 2010

News

South Korea: Bank Loans Grow Faster Than GDP

Korea Times  Jae-won Kim Feb 1, 2010

News

South Korea: 'Foreign Investment to Remain Sluggish'

Korea Times  Jin-seo Cho Feb 1, 2010

Analysis

South Korea: Good marks on December’s industrial activities

Korea Investment & Securities  Minkyoo Jun et al Feb 1, 2010

Analysis

South Korea: KIS leading index YoY growth rate turned downward

Korea Investment & Securities  Minkyoo Jun et al Feb 1, 2010

News

South Korea: One in Four Factory Machines Remains Idle

Korea Times  Jin-seo Cho Feb 1, 2010

News

South Korea: Households pay higher interest than firms

The Korea Herald  Sun-young Lee Feb 2, 2010

News

South Korea: Industrial Output Surges in Dec.

Chosun llbo  Feb 1, 2010

Analysis

South Korea: Current Account Posts Record-High Surplus in 2009

Samsung Economic Research Institute (Free Registration Required)  Feb 1, 2010

News

South Korea: Inflation edges up in January

Joong Ang  Feb 2, 2010

News

South Korea: FSC may loosen conflict of interest rules for IPOs

Joong Ang  Jae-Yoon Jung Feb 2, 2010

Analysis

South Korea: Real GDP Grows 0.2% in 2009

Samsung Economic Research Institute (Free Registration Required)  Feb 1, 2010

News

Asia manufacturers see robust growth

Financial Times (registration required)  Justine Lau Feb 1, 2010

Analysis

South Korea: Robust December Results to Conclude 2009

Morgan Stanley  Sharon Lam and Katherine Tai Jan 29, 2010

News

Korea’s Trade Dependency on China Tops 20 Percent

MK English News  Yen-mi Hong Feb 1, 2010

News

South Korea: Inflation Growth Hits 9-Month High

The Korea Times  Lee Hyo-sik Feb 1, 2010

News

South Korean Exports Rise at Fastest Pace in 20 Years

Bloomberg  Seyoon Kim Feb 1, 2010

News

Korean Banks’ Bad-Loan Ratio Falls After Writedowns

Bloomberg  Bomi Lim Jan 31, 2010

News

South Korea: Listed Firms’ Facility Investments Tumble 28 Percent in 2009

MK English News  Eun-jung Kim Feb 1, 2010

News

South Korea: Trade Figures for January 2010

Ministry of Knowledge Economy, South Korea  Feb 1, 2010

News

South Korea: The Consumer Price Index in January 2010

Korea National Statistical Office  Feb 1, 2010

Analysis

Asia tax report - Economic stimulus needs are driving tax reform

Price Waterhouse Coopers  Jan 20, 2010