Thailand

RGE's Q1 2010 Thailand Outlook

The incipient recoveries of Thailand's growth engines rest on shaky foundations. 2010 will test the ability of private sector demand to sustain growth without the help of consumer-oriented fiscal stimulus and inventory restocking. Thailand’s annual real GDP growth remained negative in Q3 2009, as RGE expected, putting the country on track for a 3.5% y/y real GDP contraction in 2009. Thailand will return to positive annual growth of 3.7% in 2010 on strong base effects, public spending increases and improvements in external demand, but growth will run below potential. A re-ignition of political tensions, a sharp rise in oil prices and an impasse over a court ruling that halted dozens of projects at the Map Ta Phut industrial port threatens to sap the strength of Thailand's economic recovery.

Thai policymakers wax optimistic about Thailand's economic prospects in 2010 but gloss over the superficiality of the recovery and its downside risks—such as political instability and the repercussions...

Read the Q1 2010 Thailand Outlook.