Thailand

Current Economic Outlook

As expected, Thailand’s political instability continued to be the bane of the economy in 2009. The confidence of investors, consumers and tourists has been difficult to regain as protests still rack the country three years after the coup. What’s more, Thailand’s only remaining engine of growth—exports—stalled as demand from its largest export market, ASEAN, flagged while final demand from the G3 wallowed in recession from consumer and financial sector deleveraging. Thailand’s steep plunge in H1 2009 put the country on track for what RGE forecasts to be a 3.3% y/y real GDP contraction in 2009. Q1 2009 real GDP growth plunged to ‐7.1% y/y, the worst level since the 1997‐1998 Asian financial crisis, and only improved slightly to ‐4.9% y/y in Q2 2009. RGE believes Q3 2009 GDP growth will remain negative on an annual basis even though quarterly growth turned positive in Q2 2009 and technically ended Thailand's recession. The end of inventory restocking overseas will keep exports— approximately 70% of Thailand's GDP—low in H2 2009 until infrastructure investments by local…

Read the latest RGE Global Economic Update.