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Turkey
Featured Content
Turkey: External Accounts
Turkey's Current Account Balance Improves Further in March, Yet Financing Risks Remain
Turkey: Domestic Politics and Political Risk
Syrian Conflict Exacerbates Tension Between Turkish State and Kurdish Minority
Macroeconomy
Turkey: Monetary Policy
Turkey: Inflation Soars to 11.1% y/y in April
Turkey's Central Bank Remains on Hold, Preserves Flexible Policy
Turkey : Emerging Markets : Europe : Macroeconomy : Monetary Policy and Inflation :
The G20's Role in Economic Policy Making
The G20: A Small Step Toward Coordination of Imbalances?
Australia : Canada : China : Gulf Cooperation Council : India : Indonesia : Japan : Northeast Asia : Pacific : Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Saudi Arabia : South Africa : South Asia : South Korea : Southeast Asia : Turkey : United Kingdom : United States : Advanced Economies : Asia/Pacific : Emerging Markets : Europe : Middle East and Africa : North America : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : IMF and International Economic Institutions : International Organizations : Trade and External Balance :
Turkey: Economic Profile
Turkish Manufacturing: Industrial Production Eases in March
Turkey: Inflation Soars to 11.1% y/y in April
Turkey : Emerging Markets : Europe : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :
Turkey: External Accounts
Turkey's Current Account Balance Improves Further in March, Yet Financing Risks Remain
Turkey’s Annual Trade Balance Improves in March, but a Pick-Up in Imports Points to Continued Risks
Turkey : Emerging Markets : Europe : Macroeconomy : Current Account : International Trade and Globalization : Trade and External Balance :
Turkey: Labor Market
Turkey: Unemployment Rate Picks Up in February as Economic Activity Slows
Turkey : Europe : Macroeconomy : Labor Markets and Productivity :
Turkey: Fiscal Policy
Turkey: Will Strong Fiscal Performance be Sustained in 2012?
Turkey : Emerging Markets : Europe : Macroeconomy : Fiscal Policy :
Finance & Banking
Geostrategic & Long Term
Turkey: Domestic Politics and Political Risk
Syrian Conflict Exacerbates Tension Between Turkish State and Kurdish Minority
Turkey's General Elections: AKP Secures Third Term, What's Next?
Emerging Europe and CIS : Turkey : Europe : Geostrategy : Foreign and Domestic Political Risk :
The G20's Role in Economic Policy Making
The G20: A Small Step Toward Coordination of Imbalances?
Australia : Canada : China : Gulf Cooperation Council : India : Indonesia : Japan : Northeast Asia : Pacific : Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Saudi Arabia : South Africa : South Asia : South Korea : Southeast Asia : Turkey : United Kingdom : United States : Advanced Economies : Asia/Pacific : Emerging Markets : Europe : Middle East and Africa : North America : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : IMF and International Economic Institutions : International Organizations : Trade and External Balance :
EU Enlargement Process
Turkey to Revive its Bid for EU Membership
Emerging Europe and CIS : Serbia : Southeast Europe : Turkey : Europe : Geostrategy : Foreign and Domestic Political Risk :
NATO's Future Role
NATO in Afghanistan: Obama Unwinds Troop Increase
U.S.-Afghan Relations: Tensions Mount
Baltics : Belgium : Emerging Europe and CIS : Eurozone : Nordics : Norway : Romania : Southeast Europe : Turkey : Europe : Geostrategy : Foreign Policy and Geostrategic Risks : International Organizations :
Turkey and Geopolitical Energy Issues
Baghdad Puts Turkey-Kurdistan Oil Pipeline Plan Off Track
Russia's South Stream Pipeline Project: Moscow Floats LNG Alternative?
Turkey : Europe : Geostrategy : Commodities : Energy : Energy Security and Policy : Oil and Energy : Sectors and Industries :
Turkey: Foreign Policy
Turkey's Foreign Policy: Mending Ties With France; Genocide Bill Deemed Unconstitutional
Palestinian UNESCO Membership Takes Away the Possibility of Renewed Talks
Commonwealth of Independent States : Emerging Europe and CIS : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Turkey : Europe : Geostrategy : Foreign and Domestic Political Risk : Foreign Policy and Geostrategic Risks :
Turkey and EU Accession
Turkey's Foreign Policy: Mending Ties With France; Genocide Bill Deemed Unconstitutional
Turkey to Revive its Bid for EU Membership
Turkey : Europe : Geostrategy : Foreign and Domestic Political Risk :
United States-Turkey Relations
Erdogan Visit Highlights Turkey's Economic and Political Ties With the Middle East
Turkey's Foreign Policy: Mending Ties With France; Genocide Bill Deemed Unconstitutional
Turkey : United States : Europe : North America : Geostrategy : Energy Security and Policy : Foreign Policy and Geostrategic Risks :
Key Indicators
Gross Domestic Product 1998
Millions Of Turkish New Lira - Turkey
Millions Of Turkish New Lira - Turkey
-14.45, -7.71, -2.91, 6.02, 11.65
11.65
BOP
Current Account, Total, Mil USD - Turkey
Current Account, Total, Mil USD - Turkey
-4328, -2953, -3344, -3649, -2966
-2,966
Industrial Production Index
Total, 2005=100 - Turkey
Total, 2005=100 - Turkey
16.99, 15.48, 10.14, 8.51, 10.46
10.46
Unemployment Rate
Percent - Turkey
Percent - Turkey
14.2, 13.37, 12.23, 11.17, 10.7
10.7
CPI
Total, 2003=100 - Turkey
Total, 2003=100 - Turkey
181.85, 182.6, 183.93, 184.7, 186.3
186.3
Business Surveys
Real Sector Confidence Index, Total - Turkey
Real Sector Confidence Index, Total - Turkey
106.41, 113.58, 111, 114.8, 116.7
116.7
TUR Overnight interbank rate
Stock or Quantum, % p.a. - Turkey
Stock or Quantum, % p.a. - Turkey
1.63, 1.5, 1.5, 1.5, 1.5
1.5
data by Factset
Turkey Outlook: Weaker Consumption Dampens Growth
Although growth will slow sharply, the Turkish economy is on track for a soft landing, with a moderate recovery from Q2 onwards. Consistent with the fragile global macroeconomic outlook, we maintain our previous growth forecasts for 2012 and 2013. Tight domestic credit conditions will keep consumption weak, implying an adjustment of the external balance, but the backdrop of high oil prices and imports geared toward exports will offset some of the gains. As growth prospects remain bleak and inflation stubbornly high, we expect the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) to maintain its flexible stance to preserve the stability of the lira.
Read the latest Turkey Outlook
Economic Research
Europe Weekly
ECB Rate Cuts Delayed; Greek Deadline Worries; Turkish Credit Drought; Russian Disinflation Drivers; EZ Calendar
By Feb 10, 2012
Europe Weekly
Reassessing the EFSF; Hungarian Politics; Turkish Fiscal Policy; EZ Calendar
By Jan 20, 2012
Europe Weekly
ECB Meeting Preview; Spain’s Crucial Fiscal Consolidation; Hungary Risks; Turkish Monetary Policy; EZ Calendar
By Jan 6, 2012
Europe Weekly
ECB Meeting; EZ Crisis Impact on UK; Russian Elections; Turkish Inflation; Italian Fiscal Austerity; EZ Calendar
By Dec 9, 2011
Europe Weekly
EZ PMIs; Greek Politics; UK Growth; Romanian Monetary Policy; Russian IP; Turkish Inflation; EZ Calendar
By Nov 4, 2011
Global Economic Outlook
Emerging Europe and CIS Outlook Update: Weaker Growth Across the Region
By Sep 16, 2011
Economic Research
A Radical Policy Response to the Rising Risks of a Depression and Financial Crisis
By Sep 13, 2011
Economic Research
Strengths and Vulnerabilities in Emerging Europe: A Balance Sheet Approach
By Aug 19, 2011
Central Bank Watch
Summary Table: RGE Policy Rate Forecasts and Market Interbank Rate Expectations
By Aug 19, 2011
Europe Weekly
Spanish Politics; EFSF Ratification; German Soft Landing; Czech Monetary Policy; Turkish Depreciation
By Jul 29, 2011
Europe Weekly
UK Monetary Policy; Eurozone Inflation; Swedish Households; Eastern European Banks; Turkish Consumer Confidence; Polish Manufacturing
By Jul 22, 2011
Europe Weekly
Greek Debt; Volatile Turkish Inflation; Fragile Irish Growth; Russia's Weak Fixed Investment; Poland's Shale Gas Bonanza; Denmark's Bank Woes
By Jul 8, 2011
Europe Weekly
Risks and Growth Prospects Across the EZ, UK, Nordics, Emerging Europe and CIS
By Jul 1, 2011
Europe Weekly
Turkish Credit Growth; UK Consumption; Russian Payroll Tax; Greek Crisis Impact on Romania; Finnish Growth Policy
By Jun 24, 2011
Europe Weekly
Greek Crisis; German Banks Exposed; Irish Bondholders; Czech Banking Risks; Turkish Wage-Price Spiral
By Jun 17, 2011
Economic Research
Current Account Deficit Alert: Domestic Policies, not Foreign Capital, Will Shield Brazil, India, Turkey and South Africa
By Jun 2, 2011
Europe Weekly
ECB Collateral Holdings; German Dynamics; UK Corporates; Turkish Monetary Policy; Polish Consumption; Hungarian Mortgage Relief
By May 27, 2011
Economic Research
Eastern Europe: Are Higher Commodity Prices a Monetary Policy Game-Changer?
By Mar 21, 2011
Europe Weekly
Eastern Europe Monetary Policy; Icelandic Policy Rate; Irish Fiscal Challenges
By Mar 18, 2011
Europe Weekly
Greek Debt Restructuring; Turkish Monetary Policy; German Elections; Swedish Banks
By Jan 21, 2011
Economic Research
2011 Geostrategy Note: The Roiling Pacific, Quagmiristan and EZ Targets
By Dec 29, 2010
Economic Research
Q4 2010 Geostrategic Risk Note: Asia on the Boil, U.S.-Europe Reap Anti-Incumbent Backlash
By Oct 7, 2010
Europe Weekly
Q2 GDP in the Eurozone and UK; High-Flying Swiss Franc; Turkey's Referendum
By Sep 3, 2010
Economic Research
Europe Weekly Spotlight: UK and German Inflation; Turkish Monetary Policy; Nordic PMIs
By Aug 20, 2010
Economic Research
Europe Weekly Spotlight: Markets Worry About Ireland; Bulgaria Hedges Energy Bets
By Jul 23, 2010
Economic Research
Europe Weekly Spotlight: Growth in Turkey, Austerity Beyond (even France)
By Jun 25, 2010
Economic Research
The Greece Dilemma: Sovereign Debts Imperiling the Euro and Challenging EU Ties
By Jan 19, 2010
Economic Research
Turkey’s Policy Rate at All-Time Low: Is the Central Bank Pushing on a String?
By Sep 21, 2009
EconoMonitors
Global Macro Channel
WHAT’S ON YOUR MIND? Thoughts from EconoMonitor's Alpert, Hugh, Deliveli, and Dolan
May 20, 2012
The Kapali Carsi
How Does the Central Bank of Turkey Decide That a Given Day Is a Special One
Apr 20, 2012
The Kapali Carsi
Addendum to latest Hurriyet column: Box of chocolates from Central Bank
Aug 1, 2011
The Kapali Carsi
Central Bank of Turkey's meeting with bank economists: "We love the BRSA!"
Jul 29, 2011
RGE Analysts
New IMF Forecasts Highlight Uncertainty Surrounding Turkish Growth Outlook
Jul 19, 2011
The Kapali Carsi
Mixed Results (and a New Weapon) from Central Bank of Turkey's Business Tendency Survey
Jun 24, 2011
The Kapali Carsi
Yet Another Addendum to This Week's Column: An Economist Supports the Economist!
Jun 8, 2011
The Kapali Carsi
Addendum to Hurriyet column: Job application to Central Bank of Turkey
May 31, 2011
Daily Digest
News
Turkey Macro Outlook: Riding the growth and inflation seesaw
Erste Bank (free registration required) May 22, 2012
Analysis
Turkey in the Week: Central Bank policy actions at home, news flow on Greece and Spain beyond are the main market movers
Erste Group Research May 21, 2012
Analysis
Regional Economic Prospects in EBRD Countries of Operations: May 2012– Transition Economies in the Shadow of the Eurozone Crisis: Managing the Fallout
EBRD May 18, 2012
Analysis
CEE Insights: How will the GDP trajectory look like in the reminder of this year?
Erste Bank (free registration required) May 18, 2012
Analysis
Emerging Markets Briefer: May 2012 – Greek and Chinese worries hit Emerging Markets hard
Danske Markets Research May 16, 2012
Analysis
Turkey Short Note: Central Government Budget Balance
Erste Bank (free subscription required) May 15, 2012
Analysis
Turkey Macro Weekly: Central Bank policy actions at home, news flow on Greek and Spain beyond are the main market movers
Erste Bank (free registration required) May 15, 2012
Analysis
Turkey Short Note: Moderation likely to prevail
Erste Bank (free subscription required) May 11, 2012
Analysis
Turkey Short Note: Gradual slowdown continues
Erste Bank (free registration required) May 08, 2012
Analysis
Turkey Short Note: Has deterioration eased?
Erste Bank (free registration required) May 08, 2012
Analysis
CEE Fixed Income Daily : Croatia's IP and Trade Balance, Turkey's Trade Balance
Erste Bank (free registration required) May 02, 2012
Analysis
Turkey Manufacturing PMI: Operating conditions improve for first time in three months
Markit May 02, 2012
Analysis
CEE Weekly: Poland: Wait-and-see policy of MPC; Hungary: 2012 Convergence Program; Czech Republic: Government likely to survive; Romania: NBR likely to cut the key rate again; Turkey: More frequent tightening
Raiffeisen Research Apr 27, 2012
Analysis
CEE Insights: Czech Republic- Government should survive; Hungary gets green light from EU; Poland's deficit lower than expected; Romania's easing conditional upon stable political environment; Turkish Inflation; Ukraine funding
Erste Bank (free registration required) Apr 27, 2012
Blogs
Civil-Military Relations in Turkey, Objectively Speaking
Council on Foreign Relations Apr 23, 2012
Analysis
Economic focus: Back to normal? What a closer look on food and energy prices in the transition region reveals
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Apr 23, 2012
Analysis
Economic focus: Back to normal? What a closer look on food and energy prices in the transition region reveals
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Apr 23, 2012
Analysis
Emerging Markets Briefer: The return of European fears hits Emerging Markets
Danske Bank Apr 19, 2012
Research
European Bank Deleveraging, Implications for Emerging Market Countries
The World Bank 2012-04-18 08:00:00
Analysis
CEE Fixed Income Daily: Hungary's Talks with the EU; Romanian Politics- No-confidence motion today; Turkey- Monetary Policy Decision Today
Erste Bank (free registration required) Apr 18, 2012
Analysis
Turkey Short Note: Monetary Policy Council Meeting- Get set for more frequent “exceptional days”
Erste Bank (free registration required) Apr 18, 2012
Analysis
Turkey: Press Release on Interest Rates, April 18, 2012
Central Bank of Turkey Apr 18, 2012
Analysis
World Economic Outlook: Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain (April 2012)
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Apr 17, 2012
Analysis
CEE Fixed Income Daily: Hungarian CPI paints more benign infaltion figure; Turkey's budget deficit; CEE CDS have not been able to decouple
Erste Bank (free registration required) Apr 17, 2012
Analysis
Turkey Short Note: Somewhat improved but still weak
Erste Bank (free subscription required) Apr 16, 2012
Analysis
New Europe Economics and Strategy: Financial markets enter consolidation phase after strong start in Q1
Eurobank EFG March 2012
Analysis
CEE Weekly: Poland:CPI key for MPC; Hungary: Waiting for the Convergence Report; Czech Republic: Inflation creeping higher; Romania: Poor performance in Feb; Russia: Cautious monetary policy outlook; Turkey: Upside C/A surprise adds to lira stabilization
Raiffeisen Research Apr 13, 2012
Analysis
CEE Insights: Czech Republic- Government survived as expected; Hungary- CPI slows in March; Poland- Pension agreement reached; Romania- Weak February IP data; Turkey- CB shifts to tightening; Ukraine- Gov't increases expenditures 2% of GDP
Erste Bank (free registration required) Apr 13, 2012
Analysis
Turkey Short Note: Good performance, shadowed by rising oil prices
Erste Bank (free subscription required) Apr 11, 2012
Analysis
Turkey: Good performance, shadowed by rising oil prices
Erste Bank Research (free registration) Apr 11, 2012
Analysis
CEE Weekly: Poland: The hawks are back in town; Hungary: Budget deficit shooting up; Czech Republic: Government collapse possible, but unlikely; Romania: Yields still moving downwards; Russia: No need to cut interest rates;Turkey: Prolonged phase of tight
Raiffeisen Research Apr 06, 2012
Analysis
Turkey Short Note: Government's 4th Incentive Scheme
Erste Bank (free registration required) Apr 06, 2012
Analysis
Turkey: A pleasant surprise from inflation, but how sustainable?
Erste Bank Research (free registration) Apr 03, 2012
RESEARCH AND STRATEGY FIXTURES
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