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Turkey

Macro View

Markets

Finance & Banking

Geostrategic & Long Term

Key Indicators

National Accounts
Expenditure on the gross Domestic Product - Gross domestic product
(New Turkish Liras at 1998 prices, NSA)
20984180.18,23511991.01,27129334.78,25699000,23349736 23,349,736
Consumer Price Index
General
(2003=100, NSA)
176.59,177.62,178.68,178.04,177.04 177.04
Labor Force Survey
Unemployment rate
(%, three months moving average, NSA)
13.5,14.5,14.4,13.7,12 12
Interbank Money Market Transactions
Overnight Borrowing Rate
(%)
6.5,6.5,6.5,6.5,6.5 6.5
Consumer Confidence
Weighted Real Sector Confidence Index
(Index, NSA)
105.4,110.6,118.8,115.1,111.7 111.7
Industrial Production Index
Total Industry
(2005=100, NSA)
99.2,99.9,116.2,113.6,118 118
data by Moody's

RGE's Q3 2010 Turkey Outlook

Turkey’s economy is on track for standout growth in 2010. The economy grew by an eye-catching 11.7% y/y in Q1 2010, second only to China. Nevertheless, the favorable base effect after last year’s sharp 14.5% contraction in Q1 2009—when Turkey’s GDP hit bottom—largely explains the strong headline number. Indicators suggest the strong growth continued in Q2 thanks to recuperating domestic demand and positive inventory effects. Consequently, RGE has revised up the 2010 GDP growth forecast to 5.8%, higher than the 4.3% forecast in the April Outlook

Read the Q3 2010 Turkey Outlook

RGE Analysis

Turkey’s Current Account Deficit: Mind the Gap

By Mary Stokes and David Rogovic Aug 24, 2010

RGE STRATEGY VIEW

Q3 2010 Scenario Analysis: Macroeconomic Factors & Asset Class Investment Implications

By Christian Menegatti, Rachel Ziemba, Arnab Das, Arun Motianey, Gina Sanchez, Natalia Gurushina and David Nowakowski Aug 2, 2010

RGE STRATEGY VIEW

Cross Asset Monthly: A Summer of Discontent: Navigating the Tug of War Between Greed and Fear

By Arnab Das, Natalia Gurushina, Arun Motianey, David Nowakowski, Gina Sanchez and Jennifer Kapila Jul 27, 2010

Europe Weekly Spotlight: Markets Worry About Ireland; Bulgaria Hedges Energy Bets

By Katharina Jungen, Mary Stokes, David Rogovic, Jelena Vukotic, Parul Walia and Mikko Forss Jul 23, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Turkey: Q3 2010 Outlook

By Mary Stokes Jul 12, 2010

Europe Weekly Spotlight: Growth in Turkey, Austerity Beyond (even France)

By Elisa Parisi-Capone, Mary Stokes, Katharina Jungen, Mikko Forss, Parul Walia and David Rogovic Jun 25, 2010

Europe Weekly Spotlight

By Mary Stokes, Elisa Parisi-Capone, Katharina Jungen, Mikko Forss, Parul Walia and Jelena Vukotic Jun 18, 2010

EZ Rescue Response: Serious at Last?

By Elisa Parisi-Capone, Natalia Gurushina, Arnab Das and Nouriel Roubini May 10, 2010

Explaining Turkey's Jobless Growth Conundrum

By David Rogovic and Murat Vardal Apr 21, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Turkey: Q2 2010 Outlook

By Mary Stokes Apr 15, 2010

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Turkey: Q1 2010 Outlook

By Mary Stokes Jan 30, 2010

The Greece Dilemma: Sovereign Debts Imperiling the Euro and Challenging EU Ties

By Arnab Das, Elisa Parisi-Capone and Natalia Gurushina Jan 19, 2010

Carry Trade Hotspots: A Currency by Currency Forecast for 2010

By Mikka Pineda, Mary Stokes, Bertrand Delgado, Mikko Forss, Kavitha Cherian, Arpitha Bykere and Christian Menegatti Jan 4, 2010

Come to Mother: An RGE Strategy for the 2010 Carry Trade

Arnab Das, Natalia Gurushina, Jennifer Kapila, Elisa Parisi-Capone Jan 4, 2010

RGE Currency Outlook: The Turkish Lira

By Mary Stokes Jan 1, 2010

Turkey Demographics: A Mixed Blessing

By Mary Stokes and Murat Vardal Dec 28, 2009

Turkey Economic Outlook, Q4 2009

Mary Stokes Oct 7, 2009

Turkey's Banking Sector: Picture of Health

Mary Stokes and David Rogovic Aug 5, 2009

Turkey Economic Outlook, Q3 2009

Mary Stokes Jul 24, 2009

Stress-Testing Islamic Finance

Ayah el Said and Rachel Ziemba May 10, 2009

EconoMonitors

Europe EconoMonitor

What Lies Beneath Turkey’s Stellar Tourism Statistics?

Emre Deliveli Sep 2, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

Foot Massage in a Turkish Bath

Emre Deliveli Sep 1, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Demystifying Turkish Unemployment

Emre Deliveli Aug 25, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

RGE's Wednesday Note: Mind the (Current Account) Gap

Mary Stokes and David Rogovic Aug 25, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Loyalty and Conscience in Turkey

Emre Deliveli Aug 24, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Turkey’s Dependence on Imported Energy: A Structural Weakness?

Mary Stokes and David Rogovic Aug 24, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Turkish Labor Market Confirms Slowdown in the Second Derivative

Emre Deliveli Aug 16, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

The War of the Think Tanks

Emre Deliveli Aug 13, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

The Carsi Approach to Turkish Monetary Policy

Emre Deliveli Aug 12, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

The Turkish Referendum Countdown

Emre Deliveli Aug 11, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

A Fiscal of Liras

Emre Deliveli Jul 21, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Turkey’s (un)Holy Trinity

Emre Deliveli Jul 19, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Turkey: The Sum of All Fears

Emre Deliveli Jul 8, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Republican Economics for the People

Emre Deliveli Jul 1, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Taking the Ankara Horse to Water

Emre Deliveli Jun 18, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Looking for Turkey’s Future

Emre Deliveli Jun 16, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

The 'M' Is There for a Reason

Emre Deliveli Jun 14, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Turkey: Addendum to Giving Credit Its Due Credit

Emre Deliveli Jun 2, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Giving Credit Its Due Credit

Emre Deliveli Jun 1, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Turkish Fiscal Rule: Dead the Day It Was Born

Emre Deliveli May 27, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Rebel with a Cause

Emre Deliveli May 21, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

The Middle Makes Its Move

Michael Moran May 18, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Addendum to 99 Luftballoons in a Beauty Contest

Emre Deliveli Apr 29, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

99 Luftballoons in a Beauty Contest

Emre Deliveli Apr 28, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

No Way Out for the Central Bank

Emre Deliveli Apr 27, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Ignorance Is Strength

Emre Deliveli Apr 14, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

The Turkish Rainbow Tour

Emre Deliveli Apr 9, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

On the Turkish Fiscal Rule

Emre Deliveli Mar 24, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

The Rite of Spring

Emre Deliveli Mar 22, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

The End of a Long-Running Soap Opera

Emre Deliveli Mar 12, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

The Misleading Political Calm in Turkey

Emre Deliveli Mar 10, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Beware of Greeks Buying Ships

Michael Moran Feb 23, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Quiet Before the Storm in the Balkans

Emre Deliveli Feb 23, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Recovering Markets

Marcus Svedberg Jan 26, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

A New Normal for Eastern Europe

Marcus Svedberg Dec 21, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Turkey Fiscal Deterioration: More than Just Cyclical?

Mary Stokes Nov 23, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Overview: Eastern Promises

Walter Molano Sep 24, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Turkey’s EU Dreams and European Energy Security: In the Pipeline?

Jelena Vukotic Sep 10, 2009

Europe EconoMonitor

Summer Vigour

Marcus Svedberg Sep 4, 2009

Daily Digest

Analysis

What is Turkey’s Referendum About?

Turkey Analyst  Svante E. Cornell Sep 02, 2010

News

‘Turkey to Make Difference by Reducing Public Debt’

Today’s Zaman  Sep 02, 2010

News

Ambiguities in post-US Iraq a new tightrope to walk for Turkey

Today’s Zaman  Emine Kart Sep 02, 2010

News

Fiscal Rule ‘Not a Must,’ Turkish Minister

Hurriyet  Sep 02, 2010

Blogs

Market Impact of Referendum

Emre Deliveli’s Blog on Economics  Emre Deliveli Sep 01, 2010

News

Turkish Exports Advance 11.4%, Textiles Top Autos

Hurriyet  Gokhan Kurtaran Sep 01, 2010

News

‘Yes,’ ‘No’ in Dead Heat ahead of Turkish Referendum

Hurriyet  Izgi Gungor Sep 01, 2010

News

Turkey C. Bank May Cut Rates if Domestic Recession

Reuters  Selcuk Gokoluk Aug 31, 2010

Analysis

Turkey’s Current Account Deficit: Mind the Gap

Roubini Global Economics  Mary Stokes and David Rogovic Aug 24, 2010

Analysis

Turkey: Foreign Trade Statistics, July 2010: Imports Increased 24.6% in July 2010

Turkstat (Turkish Statistical Institute)  Aug 31, 2010

Analysis

Press Release on Summary of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting (Meeting Date: August 19, 2010)

Centrak Bank of the Republic of Turkey  Aug 31, 2010

Analysis

Economic Outlook - September 2010

Nordea  Helge J. Pedersen et al Aug 30, 2010

Opinions

Foot Massage in a Turkish Bath

Hurriyet  Emre Deliveli Aug 29, 2010

Analysis

The Battles of Turkey’s Elites

IP-Global  Michael Thumann Aug 29, 2010

Opinions

Reform package will weaken the state

Today's Zaman  Ihsan Yilmaz Aug 28, 2010

News

Turkish Corporate Bond Market Back on Its Feet

Hurriyet  Aug 27, 2010

Analysis

Turkey Macro Scope: Hole in the Wall…

Fortis  Haluk Burumcekci, H. Erkin Isik and Nilufer Sezgin Aug 30, 2010

News

Turkey: Rejecting reforms on Sept. 12 may harm economy

Today's Zaman  Aug 27, 2010

Analysis

Turkey: Macro Outlook - September 2010

Seker Securities  Aug 26, 2010

News

CEE markets wrap: Russia rebounds

Financial Times  Henry Mance Aug 26, 2010

Analysis

Turkey: Political & Economic Update, August 2010

DenizBank  Aug 25, 2010

News

CEE markets wrap: equities fall; Roubini warns Turkey

Financial Times  Henry Mance Aug 25, 2010

Analysis

Turkey: Financial Stability Report (May 2010)

Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey  Aug 24, 2010

Blogs

CEE markets wrap: currencies slide, Hungary holds rates

Financial Times  Henry Mance Aug 24, 2010

News

PKK Cease-Fire Not To Be Trusted, Former Member Says

Today’s Zaman  Tanju Ozkaya Aug 24, 2010

News

Neighbors Partners, Not Foes in New Security Policy

Today’s Zaman  Ercan Yavuz Aug 24, 2010

Analysis

CEEMEA: Looking Back, Moving Forward

Morgan Stanley  Aug 24, 2010

News

Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan Mulls Spending Spree to Avoid Coalition as Europe Cuts

Bloomberg  Mark Bentley and Benjamin Harvey Aug 24, 2010

Analysis

Turkey Market Watch: S&P's remarks

Seker Securities  Aug 24, 2010

News

Çağlayan: Turkey to exceed year-end export target

Today’s Zaman  Aug 23, 2010

Opinions

Demystifying Turkish unemployment

Hurriyet  Emre Deliveli Aug 22, 2010

News

Turkish Jobless rate to decline further, say experts

Today's Zaman  Mustafa Edib Yilmaz Aug 22, 2010

Opinions

Turkey’s Search for Regional Power

Middle East Report Online  Yüksel Taşkın Aug 21, 2010

Analysis

Europe Weekly Spotlight: UK and German Inflation; Turkish Monetary Policy; Nordic PMIs

Roubini Global Economics  RGE’s Europe Analyst Team Aug 20, 2010

News

Turkish Central Bank Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged

Bloomberg  Mark Bentley Aug 20, 2010

News

Turkish Yields Dip on Low Rates Prospects

Reuters  Aug 20, 2010

Opinions

CBRT Needs a New Implementation Framework

TEPAV  Fatih Ozatay Aug 19, 2010

Opinions

The Story of “No” in Turkish-American Relations

TEPAV  Guven Sak Aug 17, 2010

Analysis

EM Country Briefing Turkey: Will the central bank cut rates?

Commerzbank  Tatha Ghose Aug 20, 2010

Blogs

Turkish regulators could kick start bond market

Beyond Brics, Financial Times  Delphine Strauss Aug 20, 2010

News

Turkey moves towards investment grade status

Financial Times  Delphine Strauss Aug 19, 2010

News

Six Power Grids to Pass to Private Sector This Year

Today’s Zaman  Aug 19, 2010

News

H1 FDI Inflows Drop despite Rising Recovery Prospects

Today’s Zaman  Aug 19, 2010

News

Deal-Making Begins in Wake of PKK Cease-Fire in Turkey

Hurriyet  Sevil Kucukkosum Aug 19, 2010

News

Turkey: Decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (Meeting Date: August 19, 2010)

Centrak Bank of the Republic of Turkey  Aug 19, 2010

Analysis

Turkey Macro Scope: Don’t Take My Word for It…

Fortis  Haluk Burumcekci, H. Erkin Isik and Nilufer Sezgin Aug 18, 2010

News

Turkish Bank Shares to Drop on Bond Returns

Hurriyet  Aug 18, 2010

News

Harvard Invests $10 Million in Turkish Bonds

Hurriyet  Ugur Kocbas Aug 18, 2010

News

Turkish Bond Yields Hit 10-Month Low on Shift from Equities

Reuters  Selcuk Gokoluk Aug 18, 2010

News

Report: Obama Warns Erdogan on Arms Sale

Today’s Zaman  Aug 17, 2010

News

Uncertainty ahead as Turkey delays fiscal rule

Business New Europe  Justin Vela Aug 13, 2010

Analysis

The Davutoğlu Doctrine and Turkish Foreign Policy

Bilkent University/ELIAMEP  Loannis N. Grigoriadis April 2010

Analysis

Emerging Markets FX Forecast - August 2010

Danske Bank  Aug 16, 2010