skip to main content

Turkey

Macro View

Markets

Finance & Banking

Geostrategic & Long Term

Key Indicators

National Accounts
Expenditure on the gross Domestic Product - Gross domestic product
(New Turkish Liras at 1998 prices, NSA)
28048888.79,24352788.38,20984180.18,23511991.01,27129334.78 27,129,334.78
Consumer Price Index
General
(2003=100, NSA)
163.93,167.88,170.01,170.91,174.07 174.07
Labor Force Survey
Unemployment rate
(%, three months moving average, NSA)
13,12.8,13.4,13.4,13 13
Interbank Money Market Transactions
Overnight Borrowing Rate
(%)
6.5,6.5,6.5,6.5,6.5 6.5
Consumer Confidence
Weighted Real Sector Confidence Index
(Index, NSA)
98.5,97.8,94,91.2,92.2 92.2
Industrial Production Index
Total Industry
(2005=100, NSA)
104.2,104.1,117.9,107.8,117.1 117.1
data by Moody's

Current Economic Outlook

Turkey's growth picture in 2009 is gloomy, but a return to growth – albeit below potential – is expected next year. RGE projects ‐6.5% growth in 2009, in line with recent government and IMF projections. This deep recession breaks sharply from Turkey’s average annual growth rates of over 6% from 2002 through 2007. Unlike previous recessions (e.g. 2001), this year’s growth contraction was not triggered by a domestic financial crisis. While 2009 will not be a banner year for the Turkish economy, the tide could turn quickly in 2010. The banking sector is in good shape in the wake of structural reforms implemented after the 2001 crisis, meaning Turkey will likely experience a faster return to growth than those countries experiencing severe financial sector distress. Nevertheless, fiscal deterioration and lack of an IMF deal could weigh on growth going forward. RGE expects a gradual, bumpy road to recovery, with growth in the range of 2.5% to 3.0% in 2010, which is below potential and slightly below the government’s 3.5% growth projection.

Read RGE's Full Q4 Turkey Outlook.

RGE Analysis

Turkey: Q1 2010 Outlook

By Mary Stokes Jan 30, 2010

The Greece Dilemma: Sovereign Debts Imperiling the Euro and Challenging EU Ties

By Arnab Das, Elisa Parisi-Capone and Natalia Gurushina Jan 19, 2010

Come to Mother: An RGE Strategy for the 2010 Carry Trade

Arnab Das, Natalia Gurushina, Jennifer Kapila, Elisa Parisi-Capone Jan 04, 2010

Carry Trade Hotspots: A Currency by Currency Forecast for 2010

By Mikka Pineda, Mary Stokes, Bertrand Delgado, Mikko Forss, Kavitha Cherian, Arpitha Bykere and Christian Menegatti Jan 04, 2010

RGE Currency Outlook: The Turkish Lira

By Mary Stokes Jan 01, 2010

Turkey Demographics: A Mixed Blessing

By Mary Stokes and Murat Vardal Dec 28, 2009

Turkey Economic Outlook, Q4 2009

Mary Stokes Oct 07, 2009

Turkey's Banking Sector: Picture of Health

Mary Stokes and David Rogovic Aug 05, 2009

Turkey Economic Outlook, Q3 2009

Mary Stokes Jul 24, 2009

Stress-Testing Islamic Finance

Ayah el Said and Rachel Ziemba May 10, 2009

EconoMonitors

Europe EconoMonitor

Recovering Markets

Marcus Svedberg Jan 26, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

A New Normal for Eastern Europe

Marcus Svedberg Dec 21, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Turkey Fiscal Deterioration: More than Just Cyclical?

Mary Stokes Nov 23, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Overview: Eastern Promises

Walter Molano Sep 24, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Turkey’s EU Dreams and European Energy Security: In the Pipeline?

Jelena Vukotic Sep 10, 2009

Europe EconoMonitor

Summer Vigour

Marcus Svedberg Sep 4, 2009

Daily Digest

News

Council of Europe Head Praises Turkey’s Global Role

Journal of Turkish Weekly  Feb 9, 2010

News

Turkey’s 2009 Incentive Plan to Create TL 22.5 bln in New Investment

Today's Zaman  Ercan Baysal Feb 9, 2010

News

Military Court Ruling Shocks Ergenekon Defenders

Today's Zaman  Feb 8, 2010

News

Turkey Grows Stronger Every Day

Hurriyet  Feb 8, 2010

News

Turkish Industrial Output Extends Rebound

Hurriyet  Feb 8, 2010

Analysis

Turkey: Industrial Production Index, December 2009

Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat)  Feb 8, 2010

Analysis

Though Military is Marginalized, Turkey’s Liberalization Remains Elusive

Turkey Analyst  Halil M. Karaveli Feb 5, 2010

News

Turkish Stocks Plummet on Global Worry

Hurriyet  Feb 5, 2010

News

Dogan Wins Crucial Battle in Tax Case

Hurriyet  Feb 5, 2010

Analysis

CEE Weekly: Turkey - Inflation outlook worsens rate prospects

Raiffeisen Research  Feb 5, 2010

News

Iran/ Turkey Economy: Iran to Transit Gas from Turkmenistan to Turkey

Economist Intelligence Unit  Feb 3, 2010

News

Iran and Turkish-American Relations

Today's Zaman  Omer Taspinar Feb 1, 2010

News

Turkey Not Turning Back on West, Says NATO Secretary General

Today's Zaman  Selcuk Gultasli Feb 4, 2010

News

EBRD to Focus on Growth in Turkey

Hurriyet  Reeta Paakkinen Feb 4, 2010

Analysis

Turkey: Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy for 2010

Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey  Feb 4, 2010

Opinions

Turkey to the EU’s Rescue

Project Syndicate  Feb 4, 2010

News

Turkish PM Produces Own ‘Pragmatic Depth’ Foreign Policy

Hurriyet  Serkan Demirtas Feb 3, 2010

Analysis

Consumer Price Index, January 2010

Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat)  Feb 3, 2010

News

Market Confidence Increases, Says ITO

Hurriyet  Feb 2, 2010

Analysis

Turkey: Financial Stability Report – November 2009, Volume 9

Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey  Feb 2, 2010

Analysis

Turkey Macro Scope: Play The Game By The Rule

Fortis  Jan 25, 2010

News

JCR upgrades Turkey’s ratings

Hurriyet  Feb 2, 2010

Analysis

Turkey: Main Takeaways from a Recent Trip - Sticking with Our Base Case

Morgan Stanley  Tevfik Aksoy Jan 26, 2010

Opinions

Time for Real Reform in the Real Economy

Hurriyet  From the Bosphorus: Straight Jan 31, 2010

News

Turkish CPI May Surge, Challenging Yilmaz: Week Ahead

Bloomberg  Steve Bryant Feb 1, 2010

News

Turkish Stock Rally Depends on IMF Loan, Ratings, Fortis Says

Bloomberg  Ercan Ersoy and Seda Sezer Feb 1, 2010

News

Erdogan Slams French President over EU Bid

Journal of Turkish Weekly  Feb 1, 2010

Opinions

‘The Missing’ in the Inflation Report

Hurriyet  Emre Deliveli Jan 31, 2010

News

Turkey’s Exports Rise in January

Hurriyet  Feb 1, 2010

News

Turkish Lira Firms, Trade Data Signals Recovery

Reuters  Selcuk Gokoluk Jan 29, 2010

Analysis

Turkey: Foreign Trade Statistics, December 2009

Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat)  Jan 29, 2010

Analysis

The Analysis of the European’s Parliament’s Recent Draft Resolution on Turkey

Journal of Turkish Weekly  Ceren Mutus Jan 29, 2010

News

Turkey’s Trade Deficit Widens in December

Hurriyet  Jan 29, 2010

RGE Writings

Bremmer-Roubini 2010 Global Forecast

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor  Nouriel Roubini and Ian Bremmer Jan 28, 2010

News

Turkey in Sweet Spot and Tipped to Outperform

Citywire  James Phillipps Jan 28, 2010

News

Turkish C. Bank Sees Higher Inflation in 2010

Reuters  Hatice Aydogdu Jan 28, 2010

News

Turkey is a Tempting Target for Private Equity Investors

Financial Times  Selcuk Yorgancioglu Jan 28, 2010

Opinions

Turkey is a tempting target

Financial Times  Jan 27, 2010

News

Turkish Manufacturing Sector Maintains Upswing in January

Today's Zaman  Yonca Poyraz Dogan Jan 27, 2010

News

Sledgehammer Dominates Political Agenda in Ankara

Today's Zaman  Jan 27, 2010

News

Europeans confused about Turkey accession

EurActiv  Jan 27, 2010

Analysis

Turkey: Inflation Report 2010-1 (Overview)

Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey  Jan 26, 2010

Analysis

Turkey: Press Release on Summary of Monetary Policy Committee Meeting

Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey  Jan 26, 2010

News

The Results of the Auction Conducted on January 26th, 2010

Undersecretariat of Treasury, Republic of Turkey  Jan 26, 2010

Analysis

The Turkish-Iranian Gas Relationship: Politically Successful Commercially Problematic

Oxford Institute for Energy Studies  Elin Kinnander Jan 26, 2010

Analysis

Turkey: A half moon shining

UniCredit Weekly Magazine  Yapi Kredi and Cevdet Akcay Jan 25, 2010

Analysis

Can Turkey Combine EU Accession and Regional Leadership?

Centre for European Reform  Katinka Barysch Jan 25, 2010

News

Ruled by an Unruly Fiscal Rule

Hurriyet  Emre Deliveli Jan 24, 2010

News

One Real ‘Sledgehammer’ of a News Story for Turkey

Hurriyet  Ozgur Ogret Jan 24, 2010

News

Europeans split over Turkey EU membership: poll

EU Business  Jan 25, 2010

News

Spain champions Turkish membership in EU 'family'

EU Observer  Andrew Rettman Jan 25, 2010

News

Turkey Yields Advance Most Since 2008 on IMF Deal Anxiety

Bloomberg  Seda Sezar Jan 22, 2010

News

‘IMF Agreement Can Ease Budget Deficit, Protect Employment’

Today's Zaman  Zafer Ozcan Jan 23, 2010

Analysis

EBRD ups 2010 forecasts for some countries, recovery remains fragile

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development  Jan 22, 2010

News

Forecasters more upbeat on emerging Europe

Financial Times  Stefan Wagstyl Jan 22, 2010

Analysis

Citi Foreign Exchange: Forecasts

Citigroup  Jeremy Hale Jan 8, 2010

Analysis

Economic Outlook January 2010: The litmus test

Nordea  Helge J. Pedersen et al Jan 1, 2010

News

IMF Anchor May Lead Turkey to Grow by some 5 Percent

Today's Zaman  Jan 21, 2010

Analysis

As Dogan Yields, Turkish Media Freedom Plummets

Turkey Analyst  Svante E. Cornell Jan 18, 2010