Roubini Global Economics - United Kingdom

Key Indicators

Gross Domestic Product: chained volume measures
Seasonally adjusted United Kingdom

-0.28, 1.68, 2.66, 1.52, 1.82 1.82

Amounts outstanding of monetary financial institutions' sterling net lending to private sector
Mil. GBP, SA - United Kingdom

5.94, 5.65, 3.05, 2.49, -6.42 -6.42

Broad Effective exchange rate index
Sterling (Jan 2005 = 100) - United Kingdom

80.99, 80.28, 80.2, 80.89, 81.04 81.04

CPI INDEX 00
ALL ITEMS- estimated pre-97 2005=100 - United Kingdom

3.73, 4, 4.34, 4.05, 4.47 4.47

Disc. RSI:Volume seasonally adjusted:All Retailers
All Business Index United Kingdom

2.09, 2.73, 3.46, 2.72, 2.06 2.06

Mix-adjusted house price index
UK (Feb 2002=100), NSA - United Kingdom

9.79, 10.66, 9.93, 8.42, 8.35 8.35

BBA
Lending Secured on Dwellings, Average Value of Loan for House Purchase, Pounds, Nsa - United Kingdom

145000, 143300, 135200, 139900, 145400 145,400

LFS: Unemployment rate: UK: All: Aged 16 and over: %
SA United Kingdom

7.9, 7.8, 7.8, 7.8, 7.7 7.7

data by Factset

United Kingdom Outlook: Under the Weather

Macroeconomic dynamics: We expect economic activity to remain well below the precrisis trend and the official growth estimates for 2012-13. The outlook is still sluggish due to subdued consumer spending—a reflection of weak household income growth, sluggish major export markets and tight credit conditions, together with headwinds from the austerity measures and weak external demand. Policy implications: The disappointing expansion in output, relative to official projections, implies that the Treasury will find it increasingly difficult to meet its fiscal targets. We do not rule out a return to additional asset purchases—“QE3”—in the coming months. Regarding the policy rate, we expect the Bank of England (BoE) to stay on hold through 2013, at least. Market implications: Although Gilt yields are at a historically low level, they are now considerably higher than JGB, Bund and Treasury yields. If inflation, realized and expected, declines, the door to large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) will likely re-open. GBP is likely to strengthen further both against USD and EUR, especially if the ECB and Fed move ahead with monetary easing in the next one-to-two months. We underweight UK equity relative to U.S. equity, while maintaining a neutral position within the developed market (DM) basket, as eurozone (EZ) equity will perform relatively poorly.

Read the latest United Kingdom Outlook

EconoMonitors

Geostrategy Channel

Featured Analysis

The EZ Balance of Payments Crisis: TARGET2 Debate Revisited

“With German headline inflation readings above the 2% y/y target for over a year and growth prospects much brighter than in the rest of the EZ, the Bundesbank is weary of further easing.”

FEATURED @ RGE

Economic Research

Log In to Your Account

United Kingdom

Featured Content

Macroeconomy

Markets

Finance & Banking

Geostrategy

Key Indicators

United Kingdom Outlook: Under the Weather

Economic Research