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United Kingdom
Featured Content
Macroeconomy
United Kingdom: External Accounts
UK Trade Deficit Registers Surprise Fall in October
UK Current Account Deficit Narrows Less than Expected in Q1 2011
United Kingdom : Europe : Macroeconomy : Trade and External Balance :
United Kingdom: Domestic Demand
UK Services PMI Soared in January, Defying Recession Fears
UK Retail Sales Up 0.6% m/m in December; Driven by Holiday Discounts
United Kingdom : Europe : Macroeconomy : Current Financial Crisis : Systemic Risk, Vulnerabilities and Asset Bubbles :
United Kingdom: Real Estate Market
UK Housing Prices Fall by 0.2% in January
United Kingdom : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Real Estate :
The G20's Role in Economic Policy Making
The G20: A Small Step Toward Coordination of Imbalances?
Are Targets the Way to Go to Reduce Current Account Imbalances?
Australia : Canada : China : Gulf Cooperation Council : India : Indonesia : Japan : Northeast Asia : Pacific : Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Saudi Arabia : South Africa : South Asia : South Korea : Southeast Asia : Turkey : United Kingdom : United States : Advanced Economies : Asia/Pacific : Emerging Markets : Europe : Middle East and Africa : North America : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : IMF and International Economic Institutions : International Organizations : Trade and External Balance :
United Kingdom: Economic Profile
UK Q4 GDP Contracts by 0.2% q/q, Raises Recession Fears
UK Services PMI Soared in January, Defying Recession Fears
United Kingdom : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :
United Kingdom: Fiscal Policy
UK Public Debt Crosses £1 Trillion Mark in December
United Kingdom : Europe : Macroeconomy : Fiscal Policy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :
United Kingdom: Foreign Policy
Claims of Sovereignty Over the Falkland Islands
Likelihood of Oil in the Falkland/Malvinas Islands
United Kingdom : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : International Organizations :
United Kingdom: Monetary Policy
Bank of England Expected to Announce More QE on February 9
UK CPI Falls Yet Again, to 4.2% y/y in December
United Kingdom : Europe : Macroeconomy : Monetary Policy and Inflation :
Systemic Effects of Exit Strategies
Bank of England Expected to Announce More QE on February 9
Jackson Hole: Hints About the Future of Monetary Policy
Eurozone : United Kingdom : United States : Advanced Economies : Europe : North America : Finance and Banking : Macroeconomy : Current Financial Crisis : Financial Regulation : Systemic Risk, Vulnerabilities and Asset Bubbles :
Markets
Argentina: Key Sectors
Will the Rising Protectionism in Argentina Escalate Into a Trade War With its Partners?
Likelihood of Oil in the Falkland/Malvinas Islands
Argentina : United Kingdom : Europe : Latin America : Geostrategy : Markets : Commodities : Energy : Foreign Policy and Geostrategic Risks : Oil and Energy :
Finance & Banking
United Kingdom: Banking Sector
UK Banks:UK to Veto FTT
Too Big to Fail:Fed Increases Tools to Prevent Another Financial Turmoil
United Kingdom : Europe : Finance and Banking : Banks : Current Financial Crisis : Systemic Risk, Vulnerabilities and Asset Bubbles :
Systemic Effects of Exit Strategies
Bank of England Expected to Announce More QE on February 9
Jackson Hole: Hints About the Future of Monetary Policy
Eurozone : United Kingdom : United States : Advanced Economies : Europe : North America : Finance and Banking : Macroeconomy : Current Financial Crisis : Financial Regulation : Systemic Risk, Vulnerabilities and Asset Bubbles :
Geostrategy
United Kingdom: Domestic Politics
UK Eases Stance On Dismissal of Fiscal Treaty After Criticism
UK Riots: What's the Impact?
United Kingdom : Europe : Geostrategy : Foreign and Domestic Political Risk :
Argentina: Key Sectors
Will the Rising Protectionism in Argentina Escalate Into a Trade War With its Partners?
Likelihood of Oil in the Falkland/Malvinas Islands
Argentina : United Kingdom : Europe : Latin America : Geostrategy : Markets : Commodities : Energy : Foreign Policy and Geostrategic Risks : Oil and Energy :
United Kingdom: Real Estate Market
UK Housing Prices Fall by 0.2% in January
United Kingdom : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Real Estate :
The G20's Role in Economic Policy Making
The G20: A Small Step Toward Coordination of Imbalances?
Are Targets the Way to Go to Reduce Current Account Imbalances?
Australia : Canada : China : Gulf Cooperation Council : India : Indonesia : Japan : Northeast Asia : Pacific : Russia : Russia, CIS and the Caucasus : Saudi Arabia : South Africa : South Asia : South Korea : Southeast Asia : Turkey : United Kingdom : United States : Advanced Economies : Asia/Pacific : Emerging Markets : Europe : Middle East and Africa : North America : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : IMF and International Economic Institutions : International Organizations : Trade and External Balance :
United Kingdom: Economic Profile
UK Q4 GDP Contracts by 0.2% q/q, Raises Recession Fears
UK Services PMI Soared in January, Defying Recession Fears
United Kingdom : Europe : Geostrategy : Macroeconomy : Growth Outlook and Business Cycle :
Political Risk in Northern Ireland
Has Peace Become Permanent in Northern Ireland?
Eurozone : Ireland : United Kingdom : Europe : Geostrategy : Defense Policy and Terrorism : Foreign and Domestic Political Risk :
Key Indicators
Gross Domestic Product: chained volume measures
Seasonally adjusted United Kingdom
Seasonally adjusted United Kingdom
-0.28, 1.68, 2.66, 1.52, 1.82
1.82
Amounts outstanding of monetary financial institutions' sterling net lending to private sector
Mil. GBP, SA - United Kingdom
Mil. GBP, SA - United Kingdom
5.94, 5.65, 3.05, 2.49, -6.42
-6.42
Broad Effective exchange rate index
Sterling (Jan 2005 = 100) - United Kingdom
Sterling (Jan 2005 = 100) - United Kingdom
80.99, 80.28, 80.2, 80.89, 81.04
81.04
CPI INDEX 00
ALL ITEMS- estimated pre-97 2005=100 - United Kingdom
ALL ITEMS- estimated pre-97 2005=100 - United Kingdom
3.73, 4, 4.34, 4.05, 4.47
4.47
Disc. RSI:Volume seasonally adjusted:All Retailers
All Business Index United Kingdom
All Business Index United Kingdom
2.09, 2.73, 3.46, 2.72, 2.06
2.06
Mix-adjusted house price index
UK (Feb 2002=100), NSA - United Kingdom
UK (Feb 2002=100), NSA - United Kingdom
9.79, 10.66, 9.93, 8.42, 8.35
8.35
BBA
Lending Secured on Dwellings, Average Value of Loan for House Purchase, Pounds, Nsa - United Kingdom
Lending Secured on Dwellings, Average Value of Loan for House Purchase, Pounds, Nsa - United Kingdom
145000, 143300, 135200, 139900, 145400
145,400
LFS: Unemployment rate: UK: All: Aged 16 and over: %
SA United Kingdom
SA United Kingdom
7.9, 7.8, 7.8, 7.8, 7.7
7.7
data by Factset
United Kingdom Outlook: Recession Likely
The most immediate challenge to the economy comes from the escalating eurozone (EZ) debt crisis, given the UK’s strong economic and financial links to its neighbors. The ongoing fiscal consolidation, tight credit conditions and weakening consumer confidence will constrain domestic demand. Economic contraction in the EZ, subpar growth in the U.S. and the slowdown of growth in emerging markets (EMs) will adversely affect external demand. UK monetary policy is biased toward more loosening, rather than less. Regarding fiscal policy, as growth disappoints, the government will have to either announce new measures as soon as next year to meet its fiscal targets or break the fiscal mandate.
Read the latest United Kingdom Outlook
Economic Research
Europe Weekly
ECB Meeting Preview; Italian Economic Headwinds; UK Manufacturing; Romanian Politics; EZ Calendar
By Feb 3, 2012
Europe Weekly
Greek PSI and the ECB; EZ Yield Curves; EZ PMIs; UK Double Dip; Hungarian Monetary Policy; EZ Calendar
By Jan 27, 2012
Europe Weekly
EU Summit Special: Ratification Risks; UK Veto; IMF Fire Power; EZ Calendar
By Dec 16, 2011
Europe Weekly
Eurozone Contagion; Italian Politics; UK Asset Purchases; Danish, Polish Monetary Policy; EZ Calendar
By Nov 11, 2011
Europe Weekly
EZ PMIs; Greek Politics; UK Growth; Romanian Monetary Policy; Russian IP; Turkish Inflation; EZ Calendar
By Nov 4, 2011
Europe Weekly
UK’s MPC Meeting; Norway’s Monetary Policy; Portugal’s Budget Plan; Hungary’s Credit Rating; Russia’s Retail Sales; EZ Calendar
By Oct 21, 2011
Europe Weekly
Slovakia Ratifies EFSF; EZ Inflation Peaks; UK Unemployment to Rise; Poland’s Fiscal Overhaul
By Oct 14, 2011
Economic Research
A Radical Policy Response to the Rising Risks of a Depression and Financial Crisis
By Sep 13, 2011
Europe Weekly
Inflation Concerns Easing in EZ, Switzerland, UK, Hungary and Czech Republic
By Aug 12, 2011
Europe Weekly
UK Monetary Policy; Eurozone Inflation; Swedish Households; Eastern European Banks; Turkish Consumer Confidence; Polish Manufacturing
By Jul 22, 2011
Europe Weekly
Risks and Growth Prospects Across the EZ, UK, Nordics, Emerging Europe and CIS
By Jul 1, 2011
Europe Weekly
Turkish Credit Growth; UK Consumption; Russian Payroll Tax; Greek Crisis Impact on Romania; Finnish Growth Policy
By Jun 24, 2011
Europe Weekly
ECB Collateral Holdings; German Dynamics; UK Corporates; Turkish Monetary Policy; Polish Consumption; Hungarian Mortgage Relief
By May 27, 2011
Economic Research
UK Financial Regulation: Pricing and Competitive Implications for Banks
By May 19, 2011
Economic Research
DSK's Arrest: Implications for the IMF Succession and PIIGS' Bailouts
By May 16, 2011
Europe Weekly
Eurozone Core Comes Up Trumps in Q1; UK, EZ Periphery Moving at Half Speed
By May 13, 2011
Economic Research
Why Inflation Is Not a Desirable or Likely Way to Reduce Unsustainable Debts
By May 10, 2011
Economic Research
Bank of England to Hold the Line Against Temporary Surge in Inflation
By Mar 15, 2011
Economic Research
2011 Geostrategy Note: The Roiling Pacific, Quagmiristan and EZ Targets
By Dec 29, 2010
Economic Research
Front-Loaded Stimulus, Back-Loaded Austerity: The Optimal Fiscal Austerity Path and the Risks of Other Routes
By Dec 2, 2010
Europe Weekly
Ireland’s Political Game; Germany’s Economic Slowdown; UK’s Banking Vulnerabilities
By Nov 26, 2010
Europe Weekly
EZ's Head and Tailwinds; Acute Portuguese Crisis; Stalling Russian Growth
By Nov 5, 2010
Economic Research
The UK: MPC Split Three Ways; Bank Governor Sympathetic to Dovish Camp
By Oct 22, 2010
Europe Weekly
EZ Current Accounts; Sweden's Hung Parliament Risk; Basel III Impact on German Banks
By Sep 17, 2010
Europe Weekly
Shrinking Russian Trade Surplus; the UK PMI Message; Czech Banks Still Solid
By Sep 10, 2010
Europe Weekly
Q2 GDP in the Eurozone and UK; High-Flying Swiss Franc; Turkey's Referendum
By Sep 3, 2010
Economic Research
Europe Weekly Spotlight: UK and German Inflation; Turkish Monetary Policy; Nordic PMIs
By Aug 20, 2010
Economic Research
Europe Weekly Spotlight: Eurozone Q2 Growth; Is Germany Rebalancing?; Polls Near in Latvia and Sweden
By Aug 13, 2010
Economic Research
Europe Weekly Spotlight: Greek Loan Review; Depressed French Consumers; UK Financial Reform
By Aug 6, 2010
Economic Research
Q3 2010 Geostrategy Note: Nascent Nukes, Portly PIIGS and the Taliban
By Aug 4, 2010
Economic Research
Europe Weekly Spotlight: Markets Worry About Ireland; Bulgaria Hedges Energy Bets
By Jul 23, 2010
Economic Research
Europe Weekly Spotlight: Germany Peaks; Slovakia Relents; UK House Price Indexes Diverge
By Jul 16, 2010
Economic Research
Europe Weekly Spotlight: Merkel’s Worries Increase; Romania Ceases Monetary Easing
By Jul 2, 2010
Economic Research
Europe Weekly Spotlight: Growth in Turkey, Austerity Beyond (even France)
By Jun 25, 2010
Economic Research
It is Time for a Special Insolvency Regime for Systemically Important Financial Institutions (Non-Bank Financial Firms and Bank Holding Companies)
By Mar 25, 2009
Economic Research
Is the UK an Iceland 2? No, but There Are Serious Financing Risks Ahead. Also: BBC News TV and Radio Interviews.
By Jan 23, 2009
Economic Research
The U.S. and Global Financial Crisis is Becoming Much More Severe in Spite of the Treasury Rescue Plan. The Risk of a Total Systemic Meltdown is Now as High as Ever
By Sep 29, 2008
Economic Research
Global Recession Watch: A Dozen Significant Economies are at Risk of a Hard Landing
By Jun 25, 2008
EconoMonitors
Global Macro Channel
Clash at ERC: The UK and the Eurozone in the Shifting Global Economy
Dec 21, 2011
Ed Dolan's Econ Blog
How Gordon Brown Saved Britain from the Euro and Why that Makes him a Hero
Oct 2, 2011
Global Macro Channel
What Can We Learn From the Policies That Spurred the Industrial Revolution?
Sep 27, 2011
Europe Channel
CBO on the Stimulus Package, and Still No Expansionary Fiscal Contraction in UK
Mar 1, 2011
Geostrategy Channel
UK About to Implement Massive Tax Break for Banks; Is the US Far Behind? (Updated)
Feb 8, 2011
Finance & Markets Channel
The British Mess (III): Bank of England Tiptoes Around Sovereign Risk Worries
Dec 19, 2010
The Wilder View
Household Saving Rates in the U.S., UK, and Germany: (Possibly) Light at the End of the Tunnel
Aug 20, 2010
Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor
Roubini Telegraph Interview, Tackling the UK Deficit
May 24, 2010
Geostrategy Channel
British Regulators Disclose Terms of Emergency Aid During Panic of 2008
Nov 24, 2009
Europe Channel
If the UK Economy is Still in Recession, why are London House Prices Hitting New Records?
Oct 23, 2009
Finance & Markets Channel
Top UK Regulator Supports Transactions Tax to Shrink Financial Sector
Aug 31, 2009
Daily Digest
Analysis
United Kingdom: MPC likely to extend QE next week, but with a smaller, £50 billion increment
J.P.Morgan Chase Bank Feb 07, 2012
Analysis
Natural Gas Price Volatility 1.5 Times Higher Than Oil
Oxford Energy Institute Feb 03, 2012
Analysis
United Kingdom: We revise up 1Q GDP to 0.2%q/q, but still expect the MPC to expand its asset purchases in Februar
J.P.Morgan Chase Bank Jan 31, 2012
News
UK GDP growth shrinks: Bank of England policymakers are left with little more than talk to stave off recession
The Telegraph Jan 25, 2012
Analysis
United Kingdom: Looking for a drop in next week’s 1st release of 4Q GDP
J.P.Morgan Chase Bank Jan 23, 2012
News
U.K. Retail Sales Rise as Stores Cut Prices to Lure Shoppers
Bloomberg BusinessWeek Jan 20, 2012
Analysis
United Kingdom: 4Q GDP still looks set for a contraction
J.P.Morgan Chase Bank Jan 17, 2012
Analysis
United Kingdom: December PMI surveys suggest private sector output is still growing
J.P.Morgan Chase Bank Jan 09, 2012
Analysis
United Kingdom: 2012 to be another year of postponed recovery
J.P.Morgan Chase Bank Dec 30, 2011
Analysis
United Kingdom:Inflation is high but falling; expectations still elevated
J.P.Morgan Chase Bank Dec 21, 2011
Analysis
United Kingdom:Inflation is high but falling; expectations still elevated
J.P.Morgan Chase Bank Dec 21, 2011
Analysis
Unicredit: 2012 Outlook-Gradually moving towards a better place
Unicredit Bank Dec 15, 2011
News
U.K. Budget Deficit Narrowed More Than Forecast in November
Bloomberg BusinessWeek Dec 21, 2011
News
U.K. Consumer Confidence Rises From Record Low, Nationwide Says
Bloomberg BusinessWeek Dec 20, 2011
Analysis
OECD composite leading indicators continue pointing to slowdown in economic activity
OECD Dec 12, 2011
Analysis
United Kingdom: Private service sector appears to be holding in, pointing to very modest GDP growth this quarter
J.P.Morgan Chase Bank Dec 09, 2011
Analysis
Global Economic Outlook: Moderate Growth, Heightened Uncertainties
Fitch Ratings Dec 12, 2011
Analysis
United Kingdom: Autumn Statement - Borrowing to Be Revised Significantly Higher
Morgan Stanley Dec 02, 2011
Analysis
United Kingdom: Chancellor Osborne offered no net fiscal stimulus to growth in his budget statement this week
J.P.Morgan Chase Bank Dec 02, 2011
Analysis
United Kingdom: 3Q GDP unrevised at 0.5%, but demand-side breakdown is worse than expected
J.P.Morgan Chase Bank Nov 25, 2011
News
U.K. Growth Forecasts Cut By BCC as Recession Risks Mount Amid Euro Crisis
Bloomberg Nov 28, 2011
Analysis
CO2 Emission from Shale Gas Could Use 25% of Global Emission Budget to 2050
Tyndall Nov 25, 2011
Analysis
U.K. Climate Change Policy to Create 20% Rise in Company Energy Bills by 2020
UK DECC Nov 24, 2011
News
UK announces new financial restrictions against Iran
Foreign and Commonwelath Office Nov 21, 2011
RESEARCH AND STRATEGY FIXTURES
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Outlook Overview: No Such Thing as a Free Lunch
“Summit after summit, failed ‘plan to plan’ after failed ‘plan to plan,’ EZ politicians are failing to alleviate uncertainty and stresses in financial markets.”
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