Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos

RGE's Q3 2010 Outlook

Vietnam: Robust domestic demand, along with export growth of 15.7% y/y, drove Vietnam's economy to expansion of 6.16% y/y in H1 2010. Concerns about macroeconomic stability have eased somewhat since early 2010 as currency devaluations, slowing inflation and credit growth and better-than-expected exports and FDI disbursements have reduced risks of a balance of payments or currency crisis. Sluggish G3 recoveries notwithstanding, resilient domestic demand will help Vietnam grow from 5.3% y/y in 2009 to 6.3% y/y in 2010 and 6.9% y/y in 2011.

Read the Q3 2010 Vietnam Outlook

Cambodia: The global recovery will improve exports and tourism receipts and attract foreign investors, especially from Vietnam, China and South Korea, into the agriculture, real-estate and oil and gas sectors. However, the battered garment industry will continue to struggle due to a weak recovery in the U.S., the largest market for Cambodia’s textile exports.

Laos: Laos weathered the global recession well, growing 5.5-6.5% in 2009, led by the strong commodity sector. But investment slowed, exports to Thailand, its largest market, declined and hydropower projects were put on hold. Laos’s economic prospects look brighter in 2010 with the delayed Nam Theun II dam project back in motion, high commodity prices boosting the mining sector and investment and tourism rebounding.

Read the Q3 2010 Other Southeast Asia Outlook