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Latin America

Macro View

Markets

Finance & Banking

Geostrategic & Long Term Issues

Current Economic Outlook

RGE maintains the view from the July Outlook that Latin America will recover in 2010 but the expansion will likely be below trend. The region is stabilizing in H2 2009 after having contracted severely in H1 2009. Although global and regional economic and financial conditions will likely improve in 2010, RGE expects the pace of external and local demand revival to be sluggish. Commodity prices will be temperate (unable to return to record highs or recent lows), mainly because of below‐potential recoveries in the U.S. and advanced economies as well as in China. Though global liquidity will remain elevated in the upcoming quarters favoring LatAm asset classes, market anxiety about the timing of exit strategies around the world represents a significant risk. RGE cautions that miscalculation in exit strategies and disappointing economic results pose the main risks to LatAm market dynamics in 2010.

Read the latest RGE Global Economic Update.

RGE Analysis

Latin America: What’s Coming Up?

By Bertrand Delgado Feb 08, 2010

Latin America: Q1 2010 Outlook

By Bertrand Delgado Jan 30, 2010

Argentina: Q1 2010 Outlook

By Bertrand Delgado Jan 30, 2010

Brazil: Q1 2010 Outlook

By Bertrand Delgado Jan 30, 2010

Chile: Q1 2010 Outlook

By Bertrand Delgado Jan 30, 2010

Colombia: Q1 2010 Outlook

By Bertrand Delgado Jan 30, 2010

Mexico: Q1 2010 Outlook

By Bertrand Delgado Jan 30, 2010

Comparing 2010 Growth Forecasts for Major Economies

By Rachel Ziemba, Elisa Parisi-Capone, Christian Menegatti, Arpitha Bykere, Bertrand Delgado and Mikka Pineda Jan 21, 2010

Venezuela Devaluation: Alo Presidente!

By Arnab Das, Bertrand Delgado, and Natalia Gurushina Jan 11, 2010

RGE Currency Outlook: The Mexican Peso

By Bertrand Delgado Jan 01, 2010

RGE Currency Outlook: The Chilean Peso

By Bertrand Delgado Jan 01, 2010

RGE Currency Outlook: The Brazilian Real

By Bertrand Delgado Jan 01, 2010

Latin American CDS: Fully Recovered, What Are the Risks?

Alejandro Rivera, Elisa Parisi-Capone and Bertrand Delgado Nov 13, 2009

Are Capital Controls in Fashion Again?

RGE Analyst Team Oct 28, 2009

Latin America Economic Outlook, Q4 2009

Bertrand Delgado Oct 07, 2009

Latin America - The Week Ahead: July 27-31

Bertrand Delgado and Italo Lombardi Jul 27, 2009

Latin America Economic Outlook, Q3 2009

Bertrand Delgado Jul 24, 2009

BRICs in the Monitor

RGE Analyst Team Jun 16, 2009

Latin America - The Week Ahead: June 15-19

Bertrand Delgado and Italo Lombardi Jun 15, 2009

Latin America - The Week Ahead: June 8-12

Bertrand Delgado and Italo Lombardi Jun 08, 2009

Latin America - The Week Ahead: June 1-5

Bertrand Delgado and Italo Lombardi Jun 01, 2009

Latin America - The Week Ahead

Bertrand Delgado and Italo Lombardi May 26, 2009

Chile - Going into the Q1 2009 GDP Figures: Any Good News?

Bertrand Delgado and Italo Lombardi May 19, 2009

Chile - The Q1 2009 GDP Figures: Any Good News?

Bertrand Delgado and Italo Lombardi May 19, 2009

Latin America - The Week Ahead: March 13-20

Bertrand Delgado Mar 16, 2009

China's Resource Buys

Rachel Ziemba Feb 21, 2009

Bolivia: Economic Consequences of the New Constitution

Juan Antonio Morales and Thomas Trebat Feb 06, 2009

Brazilian Fiscal Accounts Booming

Italo Lombardi Aug 25, 2008

Brazil, OPEC and Oil Fundamentals

Rachel Ziemba May 12, 2008

ECB, BoT, BoK, BoE, BoJ; China; Mexico; Iceland

Christian Menegatti Apr 10, 2008

EconoMonitors

Emerging Markets Monitor

Jamaica: Start Jammin

Walter Molano Feb 9, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

RGE's Weekly Roundup

RGE Analyst Team Feb 5, 2010

Latin America Economonitor

Mexico - 2010 State and Local Elections: Relevance, Current Dynamics, and Outlook

Alejandro Schtulmann Feb 3, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Some Thoughts on Haiti’s Suffering and Courage

Eugenio Diaz-Bonilla Feb 3, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

2010: The Short Term Strategic Outlook – Beyond the Statements

Gregory R. Copley Feb 2, 2010

Latin America Economonitor

A New Latin American Boom Seems to be Starting but it will be Plagued with Risks

Eduardo Lora Feb 2, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Helping Haiti

Thomas Trebat Feb 1, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Achieving Long-Term Fiscal Discipline: A Lesson from Chile

Jeffrey Frankel Feb 1, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Unemployment Rates: U.S. Versus the Rest of the World

Rebecca Wilder Jan 31, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

RGE's Weekly Roundup

RGE Analyst Team Jan 29, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Bremmer-Roubini 2010 Global Forecast

Nouriel Roubini Jan 28, 2010

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Botox Cures – Part 2

Satyajit Das Jan 28, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Recovering Markets

Marcus Svedberg Jan 26, 2010

Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor

Does Russia Belong in the BRICs?

Anders Aslund Jan 25, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

RGE's Weekly Roundup

RGE Analyst Team Jan 22, 2010

US EconoMonitor

Government Payroll across U.S. Presidencies

Rebecca Wilder Jan 19, 2010

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

The Risky Rich

Nouriel Roubini Jan 18, 2010

Latin America Economonitor

Mexico: Five Key Political Risks in 2010

Alejandro Schtulmann Jan 15, 2010

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

RGE's Weekly Roundup

RGE Analyst Team Jan 15, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

In Praise of Roads

Walter Molano Jan 14, 2010

Latin America Economonitor

Argentina’s Outlook: Political Issues Hurt a Favorable Economic Environment

Fausto Spotorno Jan 12, 2010

Latin America Economonitor

Outlook for Mexico in 2010

Alejandro Schtulmann Jan 12, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

Don't Blame Mother Nature

Otaviano Canuto Jan 12, 2010

Latin America Economonitor

Peru: Hands across the Amazon

Walter Molano Jan 12, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

East vs. West

Walter Molano Jan 11, 2010

Emerging Markets Monitor

Two BRICs: India vs. Brazil

Rebecca Wilder Jan 10, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

RGE's Weekly Roundup

RGE Analyst Team Jan 8, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

RGE's Weekly Roundup

RGE Analyst Team Jan 1, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

10 for 2010

RGE Analyst Team Dec 31, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

RGE's Weekly Roundup

RGE Analyst Team Dec 26, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Collateral Damage

Nouriel Roubini and Arpitha Bykere Dec 23, 2009

Latin America Economonitor

Whither the Credit and Asset Price Cycle in Latin America?

Javier Guillermo Gomez Pineda Dec 21, 2009

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

Roubini Speech and Interview on the Global Economy and Latin America at the Council of the Americas

Nouriel Roubini Dec 21, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

RGE's Weekly Roundup

RGE Analyst Team Dec 18, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Copenhagen's Eleventh Hour

Rachel Ziemba Dec 17, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

Defining Success for Climate Negotiations in Copenhagen

Mark Thoma Dec 11, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

RGE's Weekly Roundup

RGE Analyst Team Dec 11, 2009

Latin America Economonitor

Carstens Proposed to Lead Banxico; Cordero Goes to Hacienda; Changes Do Not Improve the Status Quo; Political Appointments Prevail at Hacienda and Sedesol

Alejandro Schtulmann Dec 10, 2009

Latin America Economonitor

Banxico’s Chairman Election Process: Unnecessary Uncertainty

Alejandro Schtulmann Dec 8, 2009

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

Asset Price Co-Movements and the Dollar Carry Trade

Heiko Hesse Dec 4, 2009

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

Roubini Global Economics - Weekly Roundup

RGE Analyst Team Dec 4, 2009

Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor

A Blueprint for Global Leadership in the 21st Century

C. Fred Bergsten Nov 30, 2009

Latin America Economonitor

Drug Violence: Reaching a New Pinnacle

Alejandro Schtulmann Nov 17, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Latin American CDS: Fully Recovered, What are the Risks?

Alejandro Rivera, Elisa Parisi-Capone and Bertrand Delgado Nov 17, 2009

Latin America Economonitor

Latin America and the Caribbean: Finding Space for Countercyclical Fiscal Policy

Nicolas Eyzaguirre Oct 28, 2009

Latin America Economonitor

The End of Luz y Fuerza: Recap, Analysis, and Ramifications

Alejandro Schtulmann Oct 20, 2009

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

Latin America Economic Outlook

Bertrand Delgado Oct 14, 2009

Latin America Economonitor

Desertion, Low Morale, and Readiness: Assessing the Mexican Army’s Involvement in the War Against the Cartels and its Impact on Capabilities for Traditional Responses

Alejandro Schtulmann Sep 29, 2009

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

RGE Monitor - Weekly Roundup

RGE Analyst Team Sep 25, 2009

Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

RGE Monitor - The G20’s Crowded Agenda

Rachel Ziemba Sep 23, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

The Design of Financial Regulation in the G20 Debate: Tata or Ferrari?

Agnes Benassy-Quere and Olena Havrylchyk Sep 22, 2009

Emerging Markets Monitor

Vulnerability, Exchange Rate and International Reserves: Whither Brazil?

Bruno Saraiva and Otaviano Canuto Sep 21, 2009

Latin America Economonitor

USA and Argentina - Alan Beattie's Final Response

Alan Beattie Sep 16, 2009

Latin America Economonitor

On the Links to a Recovery in Latin America

Javier Guillermo Gomez Pineda Sep 8, 2009

Latin America Economonitor

USA, Argentina and Alan Beattie: Wrong Starting Point. Final Act (At least on my part…)

Eugenio Diaz-Bonilla Sep 3, 2009

Latin America Economonitor

USA and Argentina - Alan Beattie's Response II

Alan Beattie Aug 27, 2009

Latin America Economonitor

Argentina: Proposed Liability Management Initiatives Welcome by Markets but Steady Fiscal Deterioration Sets a Floor for Debt Spreads

Florencia Vazquez Aug 26, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

USA, Argentina and Alan Beattie: Wrong Starting Point. Act II

Eugenio Diaz-Bonilla Aug 24, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

USA and Argentina - Alan Beattie's Response

Alan Beattie Aug 19, 2009

Global Macro EconoMonitor

USA, Argentina and Alan Beattie: Wrong Starting Point

Eugenio Diaz-Bonilla Aug 11, 2009

Daily Digest

News

Chávez Declares an "Electricity Emergency" in Venezuela

New York Times  Reuters Feb 8, 2010

RGE Writings

Mexico: Q1 2010 Outlook

RGE  Bertrand Delgado Feb 9, 2010

RGE Writings

Brazil: Q1 2010 Outlook

RGE  Bertrand Delgado Feb 9, 2010

News

Meirelles Unlikely to Run for Brazil State Governor

Bloomberg  Fabiola Moura and Iuri Dantas Feb 8, 2010

Opinions

Colombia 2010: Uribe Yes, FTA No

Latin Business Chronicle  Feb 8, 2010

Opinions

Time to trade

The Washington Post  Feb 8, 2010

News

Chile Consumer Prices Rise 0.5% on Expanded Index

Bloomberg  Sebastian Boyd Feb 8, 2010

News

Venezuela Business Forecast Report Q2 2010

Market Research.com  Feb 5, 2010

News

Chile Reports Biggest Trade Surplus Since March 2008

Bloomberg  Sebastian Boyd Feb 8, 2010

News

Venezuela's Opposition Protests Slur Chavez at Ball Game

Time  Charlie Devereux Feb 7, 2010

News

Meirelles Says He’s Unlikely to Run for Brazilian State Governor

Bloomberg  Fabiola Moura Feb 8, 2010

News

Amid drug war, Mexico less deadly than decade ago

The Washigton Post  Feb 8, 2010

News

Argentina Will Swap Debt in March, Pagina/12 Says (Correct)

Bloomberg  Drew Benson Feb 8, 2010

News

Mexico’s Sanchez ‘Ready to Be Surprised’ by Pace of Recovery

Business Week  Jacob Greber and Heidi Couch Feb 7, 2010

News

Brazil’s Biggest Banks Boost Rate-Increase Forecasts

Business Week  Andre Soliani and Tal Barak Harif Feb 8, 2010

Opinions

Argentina Bank Won’t Be Independent, Goldman Says (Update1)

Business Week  Eliana Raszewski and Drew Benson Feb 8, 2010

Opinions

Argentina Seizes the Central Bank

Wall Street Journal  Mary Anastasia O'Grady Feb 8, 2010

News

Uribe Third Term Rejected by Most Colombians, Survey Shows

Bloomberg  Alexander Cuadros Feb 5, 2010

News

Argentina Govt Seizes Moment To Make Changes At Central Bank

Wall Street Journal  Matthew Cowley Feb 5, 2010

News

Mexico GDP May Grow More Than 3% in 2010, Werner Says

Bloomberg  Jens Erik Gould and Laura Price Feb 5, 2010

News

OAS urged to normalise Honduran relations

Financial Times  Adam Thomson Feb 5, 2010

News

Chile Peso Ends 0.9% Stronger On Better-Than-Expected Data

Wall Street Journal  Anthony Esposito Feb 5, 2010

News

Brazil Inflation Quickens to Fastest Pace Since 2008

Bloomberg  Andre Soliani and Iuri Dantas Feb 5, 2010

News

Colombia IGBC Stk Index Falls 1.5%, Ends Lowest Since Nov 30

Wall Street Journal  Inti Landauro Feb 4, 2010

News

J.P. Morgan Stays Overweight Emerging-Market Sovereigns

Wall Street Journal  Riva Froymovich Feb 4, 2010

News

Uribe Vows Calm as Colombia Awaits Referendum Ruling

Bloomberg  Helen Murphy Feb 4, 2010

News

Venezuela needs a Violeta Chamorro

The Miami Herald  Andres Oppenheimer Jan 4, 2010

News

2nd UPDATE: Argentina Central Bank Chief To Keep Policy

Wall Street Journal  Matthew Cowley Feb 4, 2010

Analysis

Country Stock Market Performance

Bespoke Investment Group  Feb 4, 2010

Analysis

Why Did Argentina’s Currency Board Collapse?

School of Management & Languages Heriot-Watt University  François J. Gurtner Feb 4, 2010

Analysis

Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina’s Lessons

Inter-American Development Bank Research Department  Ernesto Talvi, Guillermo Calvo and Alejandro Izquierdo Feb 4, 2010

Analysis

Misleading indicators? The Argentinean currency crisis

German Institute for Economic Research  Patricia Alvarez-Plata and Mechthild Schrooten Feb 4, 2010

News

Argentina Bank Won’t Be Independent, Goldman Says

Bloomberg  Eliana Raszewski and Drew Benson Feb 4, 2010

Analysis

The Case Against Currency Boards: Debunking 10 Myths about the Benefits of Currency Boards

Stern School of Business, New York University  Nouriel Roubini Feb 4, 2010

News

Brazil Central Bank Says Rising Demand May Stoke CPI

Bloomberg  Andre Soliani and Iuri Dantas Feb 4, 2010

Analysis

Lessons from the Crisis in Argentina

IMF  IMF Staff Feb 4, 2010

Analysis

The Anatomy of a Multiple Crisis: Why was Argentina Special and What Can We Learn from It?

World Bank  Guillermo Perry and Luis Serven Feb 4, 2010

Analysis

The Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on the Millennium Development Goals in Latin America

UNU-WIDER  Rob Vos and Marco V. Sánchez Feb 3, 2010

News

Real Bottoms as Goldman Sachs Says Slump Is Over (Update3)

Bloomberg  Ye Xie and Alexander Ragir Feb 3, 2010

News

Venezuela Banks to Pay More to Deposit Guarantee Fund (Update1)

Bloomberg  Daniel Cancel and Corina Rodriguez Pons Feb 2, 2010

News

Carstens Says Mexico Price Expectations Are Anchored

Bloomberg  Emma Ross-Thomas Feb 2, 2010

News

Eurasia Group Sees Rousseff as Brazil Vote Favorite

Bloomberg  Andre Soliani and Maria Luiza Rabello Feb 2, 2010

Analysis

Brazil economy: Deficit challenges

EIU  EIU Views Wire Feb 2, 2010

News

Chile 2010 Industrial Output Seen Growing 5%-6% -Trade Group

Wall Street Journal  Carolina Pica Feb 2, 2010

News

Argentine Committee Backs Firing of Central Banker

Bloomberg  Eliana Raszewski Feb 3, 2010

News

Brazil May Raise Rates if It Has Inflation ‘Problem’

Bloomberg  Laura Price and Fabiola Moura Feb 2, 2010

News

Ecuador Business Confidence Down 2% In Dec On Month -Deloitte

Wall Street Journal  Mercedes Alvaro and Dow Jones Newswires Feb 2, 2010

News

CORRECT:Chevron, Ecuador Plaintiffs Spar Over Arbitration In Court

Wall Street Journal  Mercedes Alvaro and Dow Jones Newswires Feb 2, 2010

News

Colombia’s Peso Bond Yields Rise to 4-Month High on CPI Concern

Bloomberg  Andrea Jaramillo Feb 2, 2010

Analysis

The Venezuela Spillover

Global Economic Forum  Daniel Volberg Jan 26, 2010

News

Peru Files Shelf to Sell Up to $5 Billion of Debt (Update1)

Bloomberg  Veronica Navarro Espinosa Feb 2, 2010

News

Peru January Consumer Prices Rise as Food Costs Jump (Update1)

Bloomberg  John Quigley Feb 1, 2010

News

Mind the Current Account Gap?

Morgan Stanley Global Economic Forum  Marcelo Carvalho Jan 2, 2010

Opinions

Obama and Latin America

The Financial Express  Jorge Heine Jan 2, 2010

News

Brazil Rate Futures Rise on Meirelles Growth Comments

Bloomberg  Andre Soliani and Fabiola Moura Feb 2, 2010

News

Mexico's PAN and PRD: Love letters in the making?

LA TImes  Ken Ellingwood Feb 1, 2010

News

Chile Pinera Likely To Continue Nuclear Studies, No Decision Seen

Wall Street Journal  Anthony Esposito Feb 1, 2010

News

Real Bottoms as Goldman Sachs Says Slump Is Over

Bloomberg  Ye Xie and Alexander Ragir Feb 2, 2010

News

Lula’s Chosen Heir Surges in Brazil Presidential Poll (Update3)

Business Week  Maria Luiza Rabello Feb 2, 2010

Analysis

Peru: Inflation in January was 0.3%

BNP  Italo Lombardi, Rafael de la Fuente, Diego Donadio and Alexandre Lintz Feb 2, 2010

Analysis

Colombia: The CB left rates unchanged at 3.50% at the first MPC meting of the year, as expected

BNP  Italo Lombardi, Rafael de la Fuente, Diego Donadio and Alexandre Lintz Feb 2, 2010

News

Venezuela Sets New Brokerage Rules After Bank Scandal (Update1)

Business Week  Daniel Cancel and Corina Rodriguez Pons Feb 1, 2010

News

Peru's Jan Benchmark Consumer Price Index Rose 0.30 - INEI

Wall Street Journal  Dow Jones Newswires and Sophie Kevany Feb 1, 2010

News

Argentina May Seek Changes to Central Bank Charter, Nacion Says

Bloomberg  Bill Faries Feb 1, 2010

News

Goldman Sachs Says Buy Brazil’s Real After Tumble

Bloomberg  Ye Xie Feb 1, 2010

News

Mexico Ends 2009 With Fiscal Deficit Equal To 2.3% Of GDP

Wall Street Journal  Anthony Harrup Jan 30, 2010

News

Mexico GDP Down 6.8 Percent in 2009

ABC News  Jan 30, 2010

News

Honduras apologizes after expelling Brazil consul

The Washigton Post  Freddy Cuevas Feb 1, 2010

News

Argentina’s Soy Farmers to Increase Spending on El Nino Rain

Bloomberg  Rodrigo Orihuela Jan 29, 2010

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