Turning Signals into Actionable Insight
Our Macro Strategy Team draws from a wealth of experience in leading global financial institutions. RGE strategists build on the work of the macroeconomic research team and incorporate market dynamics, answering crucial questions and generating actionable investment recommendations. Roubini Macro Strategy focuses on several questions:
Are macro imbalances, geopolitical risks, structural and secular changes causing bubbles or busts?
How can actions by policymakers and multilaterals affect these outcomes? What are the right policies, the wrong ones and the most likely ones?
Is this time different? Understanding the answer requires a deep knowledge of Crisis Economics, from utter failures and collapses to resolutions and rebounds.
Depth and Rigor: RGE's research team projects their analysis and forecasts onto each asset class we cover. They assess whether expectations and their associated risks are priced in, with an emphasis on unsustainable imbalances and structural breaks outside of consensus and conventional wisdom.
Top-Down, Disciplined Approach: Our expertise in each individual asset class means we are aware of the fundamental, bottom-up drivers and technical factors as well as how those inputs are affected by macroeconomic changes. RGE strategists develop frameworks to measure what is priced in and what target levels to expect under our base- case scenarios.
Cross-Team Dialogue: Our strategists form their views as a team, exchanging ideas and challenging correlations across regions and asset classes. The result is a holistic source of directional guidance informed by the input of our macroeconomists.
White Swans: RGE is not afraid to consider regime breakdowns, and our extensive experience with emerging markets tempers our reliance on quantitative methods. At RGE, we view such events as part of the global economy, not exceptions to normality. Crises, as Nouriel Roubini has said, "are white swans, not black." As consensus lapses back toward cheerleading mode, RGE stays independent and unbiased.
Quant Unbound: Modern portfolio theory and the capital asset pricing model are not useless, but incomplete; stylized models lack any value during periods of stress or structural change. The Great Recession has definitively proved the need to grapple with crises before they start. RGE views these dangers as identifiable and even manageable. From a strategy point of view, they are sources of investment opportunity, and even those not focused on macro investing now know the price of ignoring their "macro blind spot."