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Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

I am happy to say that I will be giving another speech at the IMF on Friday, September 17th, 2010, on the downside risks to the U.S. and the global economic outlook. 

Many of you have asked me for the now infamous speech that I gave at the IMF on September 7, 2006 with my views about the housing bust, the credit crunch, the likely banking crisis and insolvency of Fannie and Freddie, the oil shock and the severe recession and financial crisis that would follow those shocks.

Below is the full transcript of that speech:

 

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND BOOK FORUMS AND INTERNATIONAL SEMINARS LECTURE AND DISCUSSION WITH NOURIEL ROUBINI

Washington, D.C. Thursday, September 7, 2006 Transcript of an IMF Seminar Nouriel Roubini on the U.S. and Global Outlook

Participants: Nouriel Roubini NYU, Anirvan Banerji ECRI, Moderated by: Charles Collyns Deputy Director, Research Department, IMF Introduction by Charles Collyns

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The curtain has opened on Act Two of our “Year of Two Halves”—RGE’s theme since the end of 2009—with the slowdown forecast for H2 2010 getting here a bit earlier than expected. Growth in Q2 2010 registered a very weak 1.6%, revised down from an original estimate of 2.4%—a sharp slowdown from the 3.7% of Q1. This implies much weaker growth in H1 than even bearish forecasters had expected. Moreover, most of the growth was driven by a temporary inventory adjustment; final sales grew a mediocre 1.1% in Q1 and 1.0% in Q2.

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CNBC-- I discuss whether the chances of a double-dip recession have reached perilous levels in the United States.  (Click for Video)

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CNBC -- Chances of Double-Dip Now Over 40%: Roubini The chances of a double-dip recession are now more than 40 percent and policymakers have options to stimulate the economy, Nouriel Roubini of Roubini Global Economics told CNBC Thursday.

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RADIOLIVE -- Nouriel Roubini discusses quantitative easing in the U.S., the dollar, corporate earnings, interest rates, financial reform, and explains what the global economy is going to have to do to get itself out of the mess that it's now in.  Click for AUDIO

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All rights reserved, Roubini GlobalEconomics, LLC. Opinions expressed on RGE EconoMonitors are those of individual analysts and may or may not express RGE’s own consensus view. RGE is not a certified investment advisory service and aims to create an intellectual framework for informed financial decisions by its clients. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute, and may not be relied on as, investment advice or a recommendation of any investment or trading strategy.  This information is intended for sophisticated professional investors who will exercise their own judgment and will independently evaluate factors bearing on the suitability of any investment or trading strategy. Information and views, including any changes or updates, may be made available first to certain RGE clients and others at RGE’s discretion.  Roubini Global Economics, LLC is not an investment adviser.            

Gordon Gekko Reborn

Aug 13, 2010 4:23PM

In the 1987 film Wall Street, the character Gordon Gekko famously declared, “Greed is good.” His creed became the ethos of a decade of corporate and financial-sector excesses that ended in the late 1980’s collapse of the junk-bond market and the Savings & Loan crisis. Gekko himself was packed off to prison.

A generation later, the sequel to Wall Street – to be released next month – sees Gekko released from jail and returned to the financial world. His reappearance comes just as the credit bubble fueled by the sub-prime mortgage boom is about to burst, triggering the worst financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression.

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From The Economist: Click for Video

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Nouriel Roubini on Systemic Risks: U.S. financial reform, the risk of deflation in advanced economies, and China's growth.


All rights reserved, Roubini GlobalEconomics, LLC. Opinions expressed on RGE EconoMonitors are those of individual analysts and may or may not express RGE’s own consensus view. RGE is not a certified investment advisory service and aims to create an intellectual framework for informed financial decisions by its clients. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute, and may not be relied on as, investment advice or a recommendation of any investment or trading strategy.  This information is intended for sophisticated professional investors who will exercise their own judgment and will independently evaluate factors bearing on the suitability of any investment or trading strategy. Information and views, including any changes or updates, may be made available first to certain RGE clients and others at RGE’s discretion.  Roubini Global Economics, LLC is not an investment adviser.    

Something other than leaves will fall in Europe this autumn. American attention, no doubt, will focus on Barack Obama’s date with an angry electorate this November. Yet across the pond, governments of the right, left and center in Europe appear ready to crumble, their positions eroded by a wave of austerity, high unemployment and government debt, plus a smattering of nasty corruption scandals.

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We'd like to be able to say we've been pleasantly surprised by recent data, after predicting in our Q3 Outlook Update that 2010 would be a "Year of Two Halves." Instead, a string of releases in the past two weeks has made clear that the sluggish second half is here, after fiscal stimulus and inventory restocking fueled growth in the first six months.

Since the end of 2009 we have been emphasizing that the recovery would be multi-speed—or at least two-speed—with much of the advanced world displaying a below-trend, anemic growth pace and the emerging world showing a more V-shaped recovery. Now, the global macroeconomic deterioration that we still see emerging in the second half of 2010 increasingly is becoming the consensus view. In much of the advanced world this low growth will feel like a recession even if these economies technically avoid a double dip. Meanwhile, emerging markets are showing that even their more robust recoveries are not insulated from the slowdowns and structural adjustments in advanced economies. We have never been subscribers to the decoupling thesis and believe that emerging markets also will have to partially adjust to a "New Normal."

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CNBC Squawk Box -- Roubini's Economic Outlook (Click for VIDEO [2:58])

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CNBC -- What to expect for the second half of the year, with Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics chairman.

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CNBC Squawk Box -- Getting Real with "the Realist" (Click for VIDEO [11:17])

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CNBC -- Why the European stress tests were not stressful enough, with Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics chairman.

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CNBC --  Roubini: EU Stress Tests Criteria Not Realistic

The pan-European stress tests on the banking sector were not tough enough to reflect future worsening conditions for the continent's economy, Nouriel Roubini, economist and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, told CNBC Monday.

European stress tests assumed a rise of 6 percent in unemployment, economic contraction of 3 percent on average and a 6 percent hike in market interest rates. Many analysts said the conditions were harsher than what they had anticipated.

"The assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic enough," said. Roubini, who was dubbed by the media "Dr. Doom" but prefers to be called "Dr. Realist."

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All rights reserved, Roubini GlobalEconomics, LLC. Opinions expressed on RGE EconoMonitors are those of individual analysts and may or may not express RGE’s own consensus view. RGE is not a certified investment advisory service and aims to create an intellectual framework for informed financial decisions by its clients. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute, and may not be relied on as, investment advice or a recommendation of any investment or trading strategy.  This information is intended for sophisticated professional investors who will exercise their own judgment and will independently evaluate factors bearing on the suitability of any investment or trading strategy. Information and views, including any changes or updates, may be made available first to certain RGE clients and others at RGE’s discretion.  Roubini Global Economics, LLC is not an investment adviser.        

 

This coming Monday Nouriel Roubini will be guest hosting CNBC's Squawk Box U.S.  7am-9am.