The Rising Risks of a Global L-Shaped Near Depression and Stag-Deflation
I just arrived to Hong Kong and I will next visit India later this week. When the first thing you hear - from your driver upon arrival to the airport in Hong Kong - is that business and occupancy in hotels is down more than 30% you already know this is a very ugly recession in the entire Asian region as Hong Kong is an economic barometer for trade and economic activity all over Asia.
For those who argue that the second derivative of economic activity is turning positive (i.e. economies are contracting but a slower rate than in Q4 of 2008) the latest data don’t confirm this relative optimism. In Q4 of 2008 GDP fell by about 6% in the US, 6% in the Eurozone, by 8% in Germany, by 12% in Japan, by 16% in Singapore and by 20% in South Korea. So things are even more awful in Europe and Asia than the US.
So let us discuss next why there is a rising risk of a global L-shaped depression that would be even worse than the current ugly and painful U-shaped global recession:
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