China’s Economy in 2009 and Beyond
co-written with Rachel Ziemba
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Today we take a closer look at the economic outlook for China, a preview of our global economic outlook which will be made available to advisory level clients in the coming weeks. China, the world's second largest economy by purchasing power parity, contributed over 10% to global economic output in 2007 and 2008 and is thus a key part of any recovery of the global economy.
As Nouriel Roubini notes in a recent report following a mid-March trip to China (available to RGE Monitor’s Premium Subscribers), it is clear that China faced a severe deceleration of growth in H2 2008 based on a number of indicators: GDP which was close to zero on a q/q basis, industrial production, production of electricity, PMI, weakness of auto sales, fall in residential home sales, manufacturing data, falling imports and exports. In fact, calculated on a q/q basis like most other countries, Chinese growth (which is reported only on a year on year basis) was practically zero and even negative by some private sector estimates.
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