10 Reasons Why We Will See a U-Shape Recovery
Editors Note: The Following is an excerpt from RGE premium content, "10 Reasons Why We Will See A U-Shape Recovery" which is available to paid clients.
After a free-fall of output in the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, second derivatives of economic activity have turned positive between Q2 and Q3 of 2009. This significant slowdown in the pace of contraction was the first step toward positive growth – namely positive first derivatives of economic activity, which in the end are what really matters. An aggressive and coordinated policy response put a floor under the free fall of output and coaxed the global economy back to positive growth.
As reported in the latest RGE Global Economic Outlook (Q4 and Beyond – available here for paid clients), RGE expects a strong second half of the year in 2009.
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