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Emerging Markets Quarterly

Credit: Enjoy the Heat, Watch for Changing Seasons

  • RGE recommends continuing long exposure/overweight to EM corporate debt (EMCD), with additional credit duration. Spreads should tighten, and our CEMBI Broad target is 225 bps. Large amounts of issuance and refi needs in the Gulf will be met with inflows to the asset class.
  • Russia, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Qatar and the UAE are our overweight picks, while we recommend avoiding Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Saudi, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines. For diversification Brazil, Korea and China/Hong Kong exposure are large parts of the asset class as well.
  • The next year will see[...]

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