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Emerging Markets Quarterly

The Here and Now: Finding the Right Middle Ground

By Arnab Das
Apr 21, 2011 8:01:00 PM | Last Updated

On the plate tectonics, shifting sands, tidal waves and whirl of global liquidity: A clearly contradictory global policy mix that we have long discussed has collided with unpredictable geopolitical and geological shocks in MENA and Japan. The result—along with ongoing if still anemic and excessively policy-reliant recovery across developed markets (DMs)—is commodity-price elevation, spanning foodstuffs, construction inputs and especially energy. Various commodity subsectors are experiencing a secular rise in demand, driven by emerging market (EM) industrialization and urbanization, particularly in Chindia. With supply relatively price-inelastic in the short run, their real prices and prices relative to tradable goods will continue to rise.

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