skip to main content
Emerging Markets Quarterly

Rates/Currencies: In Defense of the Defensive

By Natalia Gurushina
Oct 24, 2011 5:06:00 PM | Last Updated

  • We see potential for a short-term relief rally on the back of reasonably positive news from the eurozone, but believe that it will provide a good opportunity to short many emerging market (EM) assets, as the upcoming EU summits are unlikely to deliver a sustainable solution for the periphery debt problem.
  • We maintain small strategic “underweight” in EM local currency and external debt, albeit a potential relief rally provides an opportunity for tactical bottom-fishing in long-dated sovereign external debt with near-zero incremental default risk in high-beta countries (Russia’s 2030 bond or Argentina’s Boden 2015 bond). We are evaluating a possibility of re-entering inflation-linked debt longs in Turkey (short end) and Brazil (middle of the curve).

Access to this content is restricted to RGE clients.

If you have a client code, please enter it here to activate your client account.

Click here for a free trial.

Learn About Our Services:

RGE Research

Our dynamic and intuitive macroeconomic research platform keeps you on top of the extraordinary shifts that transform our global economy, allowing users to uncover unique connections and insights. Discover the resource central banks and that 70% of the world's leading hedge funds, asset managers, PE firms, banks and corporations around the world depend on.

Our market strategists build on the work of our macroeconomic research team, incorporating market dynamics to answer crucial questions and generate actionable investment recommendations. RGE's Market Research and Strategy team gives clients actionable insight across six key asset classes:

• Currencies • Commodities
• Credit • Equity • Gov’t Bonds / Rates
• Emerging Markets • Financials
• Cross Asset Model Portfolio

RGE Strategy

Sometimes, reading research is not enough. Many RGE clients participate at the Roubini Direct Access level to gain a deeper understanding of specific issues. Through interactive live sessions, we engage with world-class thinkers, encourage knowledge sharing, idea generation, risk identification and validation of client initiatives.

Learn More »

For information on becoming an RGE Client, please speak with an RGE Representative in New York at +1 212-645-0010, or in London at +44 (0) 207 092 8850, or email americas@roubini.com for the Americas, europe@roubini.com for Europe, the Midddle East and Africa, and asia@roubini.com for Asia/Pacific.

Publications

Our Research
?

Our Thoughts
?

Outlook Center
?

Central Bank Watch
?

Key Views
?

Scenario Analysis
?
RGE Clients can activate their account by updating Manage My Account

Top 10 Most Read

Our Research
1. Europe’s Playbook for Financial Crises
Our Research
2. Recent U.S. Data Signals Suggest Slow and Steady Activity
Our Research
3. Debt and Deleveraging: Will China Turn Japanese?
Our Research
4. Iran’s Golden Loophole
Our Research
5. With Elections Passed, Time for BN to Get Malaysia's Fiscal House in Order
Our Research
6. The Eurozone Malaise: From Economic Causes to Market Implications
Our Research
7. What Drives Interest Rate Volatility?
Our Research
8. The European Central Bank of Japan? Disinflation Is Looming
Our Research
9. Gold: The Clamor and Glamour Have Gone
Our Thoughts
10. Private sector performance in Japan's Q1 GDP numbers

ROUBINI FEEDBACK FORUM

What Do You Think?
Weigh in on Roubini.com's new look or report any problems you encounter.

Website Feedback Content Feedback