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Market Strategy

FX Positioning Amid Middle East Turmoil

By Michael Hart
Feb 24, 2011 9:00:00 AM | Last Updated

  • We initiate two tactical trades—one defensive, one opportunistic—to position for a continuation and/or escalation of the turmoil in the Middle East (see "Middle East Turmoil and Contagion" by RGE Chairman Nouriel Roubini and "MENA Focus: Economic Fallout From the MENA Days of Rage") and the attendant rise in oil prices. We recommend a short AUDCHF position (entering at 0.9331) and a short USDCAD position (at 0.9836).
  • AUD represents a key risk bellwether that is likely to suffer as revolts spread, regimes topple and oil supplies risk being disrupted, not only endangering an anemic[...]

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