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Market Strategy

Irish Rescue Package: Solution or Bandage?

  • An official external assistance package for Ireland is around the corner, though markets may deteriorate before the EU and Irish politicians find agreement. Risks are large and skewed to the downside, so underweight/short positions should be kept small.
  • Expect a short-term rally post-announcement, but if the financial sector’s problems are not fully resolved, the reprieve should be viewed as a selling opportunity.
  • A larger loan package and painful reorganization of the financial sector would be better for sovereign bondholders and would likely involve a further bail-in of bank[...]

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