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Muni Bonds: Down but Not Out

  • We are underweight state general obligation bonds. While we do not believe that there is an imminent risk of default by a state within the next few years, we see states requiring lengthy fiscal adjustments as they grapple with revenue shortfalls. Drawn out political battles in several statehouses will continue to draw attention to these issues and add to negative investor sentiment.
  • Recent data show that state revenue has troughed with the bulk of taxes based on cyclical factors such as personal income and retail sales. Likewise, we see state-tax revenue collections improving in tandem[...]

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